The Spectre of Gordon Hayward

[Smokeeye123]

Question: If we sign Hayward, I'm assuming that we would be trading Crowder (unless we wanted to play really small ball with JC at the 4). What kind of value can we get for Crowder if teams know that we are forced to trade him? Memories of our inability to trade draft picks last year are swimming in my head.

Mike

i would assume something decent. Crowder has a phenomenal contract.

[saltlover]

Question: If we sign Hayward, I'm assuming that we would be trading Crowder (unless we wanted to play really small ball with JC at the 4). What kind of value can we get for Crowder if teams know that we are forced to trade him? Memories of our inability to trade draft picks last year are swimming in my head.

Mike

We should be trading Bradley.  Lineup possibilities are as follows:

IT/Smart/Hayward/Crowder/Horford
IT/Brown/Hayward/Crowder/Horford
IT/Hayward/Crowder/Olynyk/Horford

In order to sign Hayward we'd need to let Olynyk walk and clear about another $1-2 million in salary.  If you trade Crowder instead, you need to clear $2-3 million.  Trading Bradley might be enough, or would require something easier (goodbye Jackson).  Furthermore, they are not going to have the money to keep IT, Smart, and AB the following season with Hayward and Horford both getting the max already.  But they should be able to keep Smart and IT with Crowder still on the roster.  (It's a bit more questionable that they can keep them all if Olynyk is also there, but I'm not sure he gets the offer this summer that some here think he will.)

[csfansince60s]

3h
David Aldridge‏ @daldridgetnt
Multiple teams around the league believe Indy isn't seriously shopping Paul George, & is gathering info rather than looking to move him now.

Interesting, smart move. Something Dannyboy would do.

What are the chances that Ainge and Stevens know NOW if Hayward is coming here, and if so, it's Ainge who is gauging value of all his assets?

Long-shot that I'd love to believe,

[td450]

Question: If we sign Hayward, I'm assuming that we would be trading Crowder (unless we wanted to play really small ball with JC at the 4). What kind of value can we get for Crowder if teams know that we are forced to trade him? Memories of our inability to trade draft picks last year are swimming in my head.

Mike

We should be trading Bradley.  Lineup possibilities are as follows:

IT/Smart/Hayward/Crowder/Horford
IT/Brown/Hayward/Crowder/Horford
IT/Hayward/Crowder/Olynyk/Horford

In order to sign Hayward we'd need to let Olynyk walk and clear about another $1-2 million in salary.  If you trade Crowder instead, you need to clear $2-3 million.  Trading Bradley might be enough, or would require something easier (goodbye Jackson).  Furthermore, they are not going to have the money to keep IT, Smart, and AB the following season with Hayward and Horford both getting the max already.  But they should be able to keep Smart and IT with Crowder still on the roster.  (It's a bit more questionable that they can keep them all if Olynyk is also there, but I'm not sure he gets the offer this summer that some here think he will.)

I don't see how you choose Crowder over Bradley. The extra financial flexibility you are talking about matters, but in this scenario you would have substantial wing talent in place without Crowder, and it would only make sense to trade for a big man. That fills up minutes at the 4 spot, either directly or indirectly. Bradley is a better player and a more unique player in a league filled with terrifying point guards (with a bunch of new ones coming). As good a defender as Smart is, he can't cover elite point guards like Bradley can.

I do agree though. Something will have to give and it probably will be Bradley or Crowder.

[Jon]

Question: If we sign Hayward, I'm assuming that we would be trading Crowder (unless we wanted to play really small ball with JC at the 4). What kind of value can we get for Crowder if teams know that we are forced to trade him? Memories of our inability to trade draft picks last year are swimming in my head.

Mike

We should be trading Bradley.  Lineup possibilities are as follows:

IT/Smart/Hayward/Crowder/Horford
IT/Brown/Hayward/Crowder/Horford
IT/Hayward/Crowder/Olynyk/Horford

In order to sign Hayward we'd need to let Olynyk walk and clear about another $1-2 million in salary.  If you trade Crowder instead, you need to clear $2-3 million.  Trading Bradley might be enough, or would require something easier (goodbye Jackson).  Furthermore, they are not going to have the money to keep IT, Smart, and AB the following season with Hayward and Horford both getting the max already.  But they should be able to keep Smart and IT with Crowder still on the roster.  (It's a bit more questionable that they can keep them all if Olynyk is also there, but I'm not sure he gets the offer this summer that some here think he will.)

I don't see how you choose Crowder over Bradley. The extra financial flexibility you are talking about matters, but in this scenario you would have substantial wing talent in place without Crowder, and it would only make sense to trade for a big man. That fills up minutes at the 4 spot, either directly or indirectly. Bradley is a better player and a more unique player in a league filled with terrifying point guards (with a bunch of new ones coming). As good a defender as Smart is, he can't cover elite point guards like Bradley can.

I do agree though. Something will have to give and it probably will be Bradley or Crowder.

But assuming we get a top 2 pick, we're almost certainly adding another guard. So if that's the case, it would seem to make more sense to hold onto Crowder.

[jambr380]

Question: If we sign Hayward, I'm assuming that we would be trading Crowder (unless we wanted to play really small ball with JC at the 4). What kind of value can we get for Crowder if teams know that we are forced to trade him? Memories of our inability to trade draft picks last year are swimming in my head.

Mike

We should be trading Bradley.  Lineup possibilities are as follows:

IT/Smart/Hayward/Crowder/Horford
IT/Brown/Hayward/Crowder/Horford
IT/Hayward/Crowder/Olynyk/Horford

In order to sign Hayward we'd need to let Olynyk walk and clear about another $1-2 million in salary.  If you trade Crowder instead, you need to clear $2-3 million.  Trading Bradley might be enough, or would require something easier (goodbye Jackson).  Furthermore, they are not going to have the money to keep IT, Smart, and AB the following season with Hayward and Horford both getting the max already.  But they should be able to keep Smart and IT with Crowder still on the roster.  (It's a bit more questionable that they can keep them all if Olynyk is also there, but I'm not sure he gets the offer this summer that some here think he will.)

I don't see how you choose Crowder over Bradley. The extra financial flexibility you are talking about matters, but in this scenario you would have substantial wing talent in place without Crowder, and it would only make sense to trade for a big man. That fills up minutes at the 4 spot, either directly or indirectly. Bradley is a better player and a more unique player in a league filled with terrifying point guards (with a bunch of new ones coming). As good a defender as Smart is, he can't cover elite point guards like Bradley can.

I do agree though. Something will have to give and it probably will be Bradley or Crowder.

As SL has laid out in other threads, the cost savings would be immense. Once in the luxury tax, the cost for every dollar over the cap would be $2.50. Avery's $20M/yr contract would absolutely destroy the salary cap management that Danny has very meticulously planned out to this point. The talent disparity (there really isn't one) isn't great enough to convince owners to pay such an outrageous difference in salary.

Crowder is the most untouchable player on our roster. Period.

Besides, JB looks very much the part of a sg/sf wing.

[saltlover]

Question: If we sign Hayward, I'm assuming that we would be trading Crowder (unless we wanted to play really small ball with JC at the 4). What kind of value can we get for Crowder if teams know that we are forced to trade him? Memories of our inability to trade draft picks last year are swimming in my head.

Mike

We should be trading Bradley.  Lineup possibilities are as follows:

IT/Smart/Hayward/Crowder/Horford
IT/Brown/Hayward/Crowder/Horford
IT/Hayward/Crowder/Olynyk/Horford

In order to sign Hayward we'd need to let Olynyk walk and clear about another $1-2 million in salary.  If you trade Crowder instead, you need to clear $2-3 million.  Trading Bradley might be enough, or would require something easier (goodbye Jackson).  Furthermore, they are not going to have the money to keep IT, Smart, and AB the following season with Hayward and Horford both getting the max already.  But they should be able to keep Smart and IT with Crowder still on the roster.  (It's a bit more questionable that they can keep them all if Olynyk is also there, but I'm not sure he gets the offer this summer that some here think he will.)

I don't see how you choose Crowder over Bradley. The extra financial flexibility you are talking about matters, but in this scenario you would have substantial wing talent in place without Crowder, and it would only make sense to trade for a big man. That fills up minutes at the 4 spot, either directly or indirectly. Bradley is a better player and a more unique player in a league filled with terrifying point guards (with a bunch of new ones coming). As good a defender as Smart is, he can't cover elite point guards like Bradley can.

I do agree though. Something will have to give and it probably will be Bradley or Crowder.

As SL has laid out in other threads, the cost savings would be immense. Once in the luxury tax, the cost for every dollar over the cap would be $2.50. Avery's $20M/yr contract would absolutely destroy the salary cap management that Danny has very meticulously planned out to this point. The talent disparity (there really isn't one) isn't great enough to convince owners to pay such an outrageous difference in salary.

Crowder is the most untouchable player on our roster. Period.

Besides, JB looks very much the part of a sg/sf wing.

I want to clarify that the bolded was a simplification regarding how the luxury tax works when choosing between Bradley and Crowder in a slightly different case (we were talking Butler at the time).  The tax is not $2.50 per extra dollar spent (it starts at $1.50 and goes up every $5 million over the limit you get), but for that situation the average was about $2.50.  In this hypothetical it could be at a different amount, especially depending on whether Olynyk sticks around or not.  If Olynyk remains, keeping Bradley instead of Crowder could cost even more than the $2.50 per dollar amount.

[jambr380]

Sorry if I butchered what you said. I actually did a quick look up and saw $2.50 as one of a series of numbers and figured it a good average to go with (also matching what you previously wrote in a much more detailed post).

Exact numbers aside, it just doesn't make sense to keep AB over Crowder - it's not just the [assumed] $20m/yr vs $7m/yr (a huge amount in itself), but a LOT of luxury tax dollars, as well.