To the "Don't trade for Butler" crowd:

[nostar]

I've been reading one particular sentiment on CB in the last 3 months or so, specifically regarding trading our cache of assets for a star. The prevailing wisdom in every thread seems to be something like:

   "Don't trade for Butler/Cousins/George/[insert your superstar crush here] because we can't beat the Cavs/Warriors anyway."

That sentiment has really started to irk me. How the heck do any of the posters here know if we can beat the Cavs in a 7 game series? Points to note:

   - Our first game against them were down 2 starters (Horford and Crowder) and lost by 6.
   - They were healthy in both games.
   - Both games were in Cleveland and we lost by 6 points both times.
   - The Cavs have injuries (Smith/Love) and Lebron is leading the league in minutes.

Now I'm not arguing we're the favorites. I'm just saying I don't buy that we're as far behind them as all of the pundits/analysts seem to think. Our team efficiency numbers put us within 1 point of them right now:

   BOS OFFe/DEFe: 109.6/106.2
   CLE OFFe/DEFe: 111.0/106.5

So it's not far-fetched to think that adding someone of the Cousins/Butler/George talent class would put is in contention for #1 in the East, probably for the next 3-5 years.

The Warriors are a different beast altogether. Their team efficiency numbers are bananas (114.2/101.6) and their TS% is 60.5% as a team! They have the #1 offense and the #2 defense, while shooting better and playing faster than anyone in the league. Oh yeah, they also lead the league in assists. Tough to combat.

Here is my argument: Just get to the Finals.

Getting to the NBA Finals is not something to scoff at. I know that going up against the Warriors in a 7 game series is daunting, but hear me out. Assume we get Butler for AB+picks. Here is how we match up with them (using MPG):

IT -> Curry
Butler -> Thompson
Smart -> Iggy
Crowder -> Durant
Horford -> Green

I'd argue they are just as vulnerable at the PG spot as we are, but they make up for it with better team defense (mostly Draymond's ridiculous switching and post defense coupled with Durant's length and athleticism). Adding a capable defensive wing (like Butler) gives us more of that same flexibility. Being able to switch 2-5 is pretty big, and GSW is a great example of why.

What I'm saying is there aren't a lot teams that match up better than we do with the Warriors. I know we got blown out by them earlier in the season, but, again, no Horford or Crowder. I think considering we'd be playing with both of those guys and an additional 2-way player, the games would be much closer.

Now I wouldn't necessarily put money on us beating the Warriors even with Butler/George/Cousins. On the other hand, we're definitely in the conversation at that point. I don't like to make the "one injury changes everything" because that sword swings both ways. I do think we have a very solid 8-man rotation and swapping one of our non-IT guards and a pick for a top-15 player gives us a punchers chance. Not sure many people thought the Mavericks would win in 2011, or the Pistons in 2004, or even the Cavs last year. There are recent cases of underdogs winning in the Finals, even without prime superstars.

I'm happy either way, draft lotto or superstar trade. I just think the justification of "we can't this year win so why trade" is weak sauce.

/rant

[Ogaju]

Agree with OP, but still do not think we should empty the treasure chest for Butler. In fact, your post proves the point because in your post you indicate that we are already close. If we are that close, why do you throw away our assets just to get one guy. He is just not worth multiple assets.

[86MaxwellSmart]

I'm sure Danny values a player like Butler over an unknown Draft Pick. I hope it gets done this week...and we can rough some teams up in the playoffs--I think we will struggle to get out of the first round with our current team--But, I think we could have enough talent with Butler, to get past Cleveland.

[Big333223]

I think Butler would be a nice addition and I'd be excited to have him on the team but given the team's current position, I agree that I don't want to overpay for him. A Brooklyn pick but not both. A good rotation player but not multiple.

I mean, if the Bulls don't think Jimmy is their guy and they want to rebuild, are they going to get a better offer from anyone than Brklyn '17, Avery Bradley, a handful of 2nds and cap filler? That Brklyn pick alone should be incredibly valuable given the Nets' postion and the strength of the draft.

[Ogaju]

I'm sure Danny values a player like Butler over an unknown Draft Pick. I hope it gets done this week...and we can rough some teams up in the playoffs--I think we will struggle to get out of the first round with our current team--But, I think we could have enough talent with Butler, to get past Cleveland.

But they are not suggesting just draft picks for him. Have you seen the proposals. They are sending out any three of Bradley, Crowder, Smart, and Brown plus a couple of major draft picks. You do not give up three of those for Butler, and still get to rough up anybody in the playoffs.

[Evantime34]

I don't think Danny would trade for Butler for if it meant giving up all our assets. The argument for him, is that we will be better now, but we will also be better the next few years, since it would take a while for a rookie to make the same impact he does.

Butler is a sure thing, we can't be positive that anyone in the draft will ever be as good as Butler. Butler would fit with the time line of guys like IT and Hoford better than a rookie would. If we don't give up all our assets we would still have room for internal improvement.

[Clench123]

Agree with OP, but still do not think we should empty the treasure chest for Butler. In fact, your post proves the point because in your post you indicate that we are already close. If we are that close, why do you throw away our assets just to get one guy. He is just not worth multiple assets.

Exactly how I feel, OG Triple OG

[86MaxwellSmart]

I'm sure Danny values a player like Butler over an unknown Draft Pick. I hope it gets done this week...and we can rough some teams up in the playoffs--I think we will struggle to get out of the first round with our current team--But, I think we could have enough talent with Butler, to get past Cleveland.

But they are not suggesting just draft picks for him. Have you seen the proposals. They are sending out any three of Bradley, Crowder, Smart, and Brown plus a couple of major draft picks. You do not give up three of those for Butler, and still get to rough up anybody in the playoffs.

Yes, I know---but a Bradley/Zeller/Rozier/BK17 or BK18, would be the most Ainge should pay..Walk away if they want more.

[Diggles]

To beat the warriors we need Bradley....   

[csfansince60s]

To beat the warriors we need Bradley....

Butler is a better version of Bradley.

I'm OK with trading for Butler, but 86Max has the right idea above.....no more than that

[wdleehi]

Want Butler at a reasonable price.   Not what the rumored Bulls demand.

[rondohondo]

I'm weary of Butler's shooting ability. Would give up AB or Crowder and brk 17, but not much more. Taj Gibson has to be coming back too.

[Darío SpanishFan]

I'm in favour of trading for Butler.

I'm not in favour of giving most of our assets in a trade for Butler, because we would still be below GSW and, probably, Cleveland.

[Ogaju]

I'm sure Danny values a player like Butler over an unknown Draft Pick. I hope it gets done this week...and we can rough some teams up in the playoffs--I think we will struggle to get out of the first round with our current team--But, I think we could have enough talent with Butler, to get past Cleveland.

But they are not suggesting just draft picks for him. Have you seen the proposals. They are sending out any three of Bradley, Crowder, Smart, and Brown plus a couple of major draft picks. You do not give up three of those for Butler, and still get to rough up anybody in the playoffs.

Yes, I know---but a Bradley/Zeller/Rozier/BK17 or BK18, would be the most Ainge should pay..Walk away if they want more.

This makes more sense though I wouldn't do it personally, but it is not unreasonable.

[KGs Knee]

I'm weary of Butler's shooting ability. Would give up AB or Crowder and brk 17, but not much more. Taj Gibson has to be coming back too.

I'm more leery of how well Butler and Thomas would mesh, as both are very ball dominant.  Who's going to sacrifice between them?

I'd be more comfortable with Paul George.  He seems like he's not quite a true 'alpha' and thus more likely to accept being 2nd fiddle than either Butler or Thomas.