Author Topic: What will Noel's new contract look like?  (Read 5271 times)

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What will Noel's new contract look like?
« on: January 24, 2017, 01:06:15 PM »

Offline perks-a-beast

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Curious considering I think the Celtics will be one of the teams interested in signing him this off-season.

My guess is something along the lines of 100 million over five years. Which sounds crazy but after you look at some of the contract big guys have gotten over the past few years it starts sounding reasonable.

 Personally, I wouldn't really mind that. Although he hasn't proven to make a impact statistically, he's one of the most versatile big men defensively in the league. He is essentially a 6 foot 11 Marcus smart who won't regularly chuck up ugly threes which hurt the team.

Re: What will Noel's new contract look like?
« Reply #1 on: January 24, 2017, 01:08:20 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I think there will be some reticence to sign him to a major deal given his injury concerns and the fact he's never played on a good team.

Still, somewhere between 15-20 million a year for four or five years sounds about right.

No matter what, I expect the Sixers to match.  They won't let him go for nothing.  They've got cap room for days, so no reason to let an asset walk out the door.


As for the Smart / Noel comparison, I think you're underrating the value of a switchable defender who can handle the ball and actually hit an outside shot, despite a low percentage.

Noel is the sort of player who is much more likely to gum up your offense than a guy like Smart, who can at least keep the ball moving and find other guys when they're open.
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Re: What will Noel's new contract look like?
« Reply #2 on: January 24, 2017, 01:13:39 PM »

Offline perks-a-beast

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Wouldn't expect the 76ers to match. They have a log jam in the front court and are not going to spend around 15 to 20 mill for a big man Who has openly complained about not getting minutes and touches for months now

Re: What will Noel's new contract look like?
« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2017, 05:59:10 PM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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Wouldn't expect the 76ers to match. They have a log jam in the front court and are not going to spend around 15 to 20 mill for a big man Who has openly complained about not getting minutes and touches for months now
Whether they will still have a log jam remains to be seen. Okafor looks like the odd man out at the moment. Even when Simmons comes back I think he'll play the point so they can force these players onto the same rotation, despite the limitations it poses.

Absolutely no reason for them not to match. There is no contract he can sign that makes him untradeable in a year's time

Re: What will Noel's new contract look like?
« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2017, 06:10:55 PM »

Offline bogg

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Wouldn't expect the 76ers to match. They have a log jam in the front court and are not going to spend around 15 to 20 mill for a big man Who has openly complained about not getting minutes and touches for months now
Whether they will still have a log jam remains to be seen. Okafor looks like the odd man out at the moment. Even when Simmons comes back I think he'll play the point so they can force these players onto the same rotation, despite the limitations it poses.

Absolutely no reason for them not to match. There is no contract he can sign that makes him untradeable in a year's time

Simmons running the offense isn't the same as playing point guard - defensively they still need someone to defend opposing points, and ideally someone who can also stretch the floor on offense (Avery, basically). Given that Simmons, Covington, Saric, and Ersan all project as full-time forwards, and Embiid plays best next to a forward that makes space for him to operate, the 3/4 minutes are pretty booked in Philly. My guess is Dallas comes in strong to grab a talented young guy for nothing but cap space, like they did with Barnes last summer, and Noel's in a Mavs Jersey next season. Something like $80-90 mil over 4.

Re: What will Noel's new contract look like?
« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2017, 06:20:14 PM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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Wouldn't expect the 76ers to match. They have a log jam in the front court and are not going to spend around 15 to 20 mill for a big man Who has openly complained about not getting minutes and touches for months now
Whether they will still have a log jam remains to be seen. Okafor looks like the odd man out at the moment. Even when Simmons comes back I think he'll play the point so they can force these players onto the same rotation, despite the limitations it poses.

Absolutely no reason for them not to match. There is no contract he can sign that makes him untradeable in a year's time

Simmons running the offense isn't the same as playing point guard - defensively they still need someone to defend opposing points, and ideally someone who can also stretch the floor on offense (Avery, basically). Given that Simmons, Covington, Saric, and Ersan all project as full-time forwards, and Embiid plays best next to a forward that makes space for him to operate, the 3/4 minutes are pretty booked in Philly. My guess is Dallas comes in strong to grab a talented young guy for nothing but cap space, like they did with Barnes last summer, and Noel's in a Mavs Jersey next season. Something like $80-90 mil over 4.
No I literally mean I could see them playing him at the point, despite the concerns you mention.

Simmons-Stauskas-Covington-Noel-Embiid is a lineup I could see them pushing for a bit.

Even if you max out Noel they would match. There is no reason not to. If you need to move a big then you look at moving Okafor, perhaps with one of their picks this year and try and move up in the draft to get their PG of the future.

E.g. we have the 3rd pick, Philly the 7th. We trade our pick for theirs + Okafor. Or a similar scenario with the Mavs

Re: What will Noel's new contract look like?
« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2017, 07:37:45 PM »

Offline bogg

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No I literally mean I could see them playing him at the point, despite the concerns you mention.

Simmons attempting to chase John Wall or Russell Westbrook all over the court is going to be a disaster and just serve to get him in foul trouble. You can probably play him alongside a stretch four and two guards and have him guard 3s without too much trouble, but playing him as a traditional point guard is asking for trouble.

Simmons-Stauskas-Covington-Noel-Embiid is a lineup I could see them pushing for a bit.

If the twin towers idea was viable they'd be breaking it out right now, but Embiid clearly plays better next to a four that gives him space to work - it's not a coincidence that they started winning games when they scrapped the whole two-big thing. Playing Noel in that lineup, as a non-shooter with another non-shooter at point guard, forces you to use Embiid as a space-maker instead of the centerpiece of the offense. I certainly hope they try to turn Embiid into the next Ryan Anderson, but I don't think it's likely.

Even if you max out Noel they would match. There is no reason not to. If you need to move a big then you look at moving Okafor, perhaps with one of their picks this year and try and move up in the draft to get their PG of the future.

We've been discussing this in another thread, but there are plenty of reasons for Philly to not commit $50 million a year to the center position (remember, this is year 3 for Embiid and he's eligible for a max extension this summer). If they're really intent on stretching this thing out they can buy themselves one more year to find a partner for a Noel trade, but I don't think that big offer is coming down the pipe. After that, having both Noel and Embiid on huge deals becomes a serious hamper on their ability to build a team.

Re: What will Noel's new contract look like?
« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2017, 07:55:25 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Curious considering I think the Celtics will be one of the teams interested in signing him this off-season.

My guess is something along the lines of 100 million over five years. Which sounds crazy but after you look at some of the contract big guys have gotten over the past few years it starts sounding reasonable.

 Personally, I wouldn't really mind that. Although he hasn't proven to make a impact statistically, he's one of the most versatile big men defensively in the league. He is essentially a 6 foot 11 Marcus smart who won't regularly chuck up ugly threes which hurt the team.

He has been struggling a lot for the last month. It is unclear if he is still dealing with an injury or not. I would expect some improved play from him the rest of the year and then I would expect the Nets to throw a bad contract at him that is bad for them, but worse for everyone else.

Re: What will Noel's new contract look like?
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2017, 08:05:54 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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No I literally mean I could see them playing him at the point, despite the concerns you mention.

Simmons attempting to chase John Wall or Russell Westbrook all over the court is going to be a disaster and just serve to get him in foul trouble. You can probably play him alongside a stretch four and two guards and have him guard 3s without too much trouble, but playing him as a traditional point guard is asking for trouble.

Simmons-Stauskas-Covington-Noel-Embiid is a lineup I could see them pushing for a bit.

If the twin towers idea was viable they'd be breaking it out right now, but Embiid clearly plays better next to a four that gives him space to work - it's not a coincidence that they started winning games when they scrapped the whole two-big thing. Playing Noel in that lineup, as a non-shooter with another non-shooter at point guard, forces you to use Embiid as a space-maker instead of the centerpiece of the offense. I certainly hope they try to turn Embiid into the next Ryan Anderson, but I don't think it's likely.

Even if you max out Noel they would match. There is no reason not to. If you need to move a big then you look at moving Okafor, perhaps with one of their picks this year and try and move up in the draft to get their PG of the future.

We've been discussing this in another thread, but there are plenty of reasons for Philly to not commit $50 million a year to the center position (remember, this is year 3 for Embiid and he's eligible for a max extension this summer). If they're really intent on stretching this thing out they can buy themselves one more year to find a partner for a Noel trade, but I don't think that big offer is coming down the pipe. After that, having both Noel and Embiid on huge deals becomes a serious hamper on their ability to build a team.

I agree that Simmons at PG would be a disaster. I'm just saying I think they might try it as a way of saying to the league "we aren't afraid of having too many bigs"

Ok push Noel to the bench and add in Henderson, or whichever PG they pick in the draft.

Noel and Embiid on huge deals is not a problem when the rest of the roster is on rookie deals. Yes it isn't sustainable for multiple years but I would fully expect them to have moved on by then. At some point they are going to want to bring in supplementary talent around Embiid. Using Noel as a counter weight for trades would be more beneficial for them than empty cap space as it allows more flexibility in trades. Package Noel with some of their lesser rookie scale guys and you could get a few solid rotation pieces in return.

An example: Portland want to jettison some of their guard/forward contracts. You could do a deal like Crabbe + Aminu for Noel and parts.

Re: What will Noel's new contract look like?
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2017, 08:10:33 AM »

Offline moiso

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If Giannis can play the point, Simmons should be able to manage.  It doesn't mean he'll have to guard point guards.  The shooting guard can do that.

Re: What will Noel's new contract look like?
« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2017, 08:16:09 AM »

Offline vgulab

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This season Noel play for 16 mpg in 17 games from which he only started in 1. But when i saw his per 36 number i was very suprised, they look really good. First column you see his numbers for this season and second column is his per 36 numbers.

G            mpg   rpg   apg    spg  bpg   ppg

17   1    16.4    4.4     0.8   1.1   0.8   7.7


17   1    per36   9.7    1.7    2.3   1.8   16.9
« Last Edit: January 25, 2017, 08:27:20 AM by vgulab »

Re: What will Noel's new contract look like?
« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2017, 08:34:55 AM »

Offline A Future of Stevens

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If Giannis can play the point, Simmons should be able to manage.  It doesn't mean he'll have to guard point guards.  The shooting guard can do that.

2 things. 1.) I thought they only experimented with that, and chose to have him initiate the offense, but not play point.

2.) Giannis is much more of an imposing specimen than Simmons. Giannis has incredible foot speed and lateral quickness to go with his crazy height and length. While Simmons is only 1 inch shorter, his arms are much shorter. This combined with his less than stellar lateral quickness and reluctance to play d even on players his own size would make other teams salivate at the thought of having their pg go up against him.
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Re: What will Noel's new contract look like?
« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2017, 08:38:19 AM »

Offline colincb

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Sixers aren't going to pay Noel $100M to be a backup when he wants to start and wants out.

Re: What will Noel's new contract look like?
« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2017, 08:39:32 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Wouldn't expect the 76ers to match. They have a log jam in the front court and are not going to spend around 15 to 20 mill for a big man Who has openly complained about not getting minutes and touches for months now
Whether they will still have a log jam remains to be seen. Okafor looks like the odd man out at the moment. Even when Simmons comes back I think he'll play the point so they can force these players onto the same rotation, despite the limitations it poses.

Absolutely no reason for them not to match. There is no contract he can sign that makes him untradeable in a year's time

Simmons running the offense isn't the same as playing point guard - defensively they still need someone to defend opposing points, and ideally someone who can also stretch the floor on offense (Avery, basically). Given that Simmons, Covington, Saric, and Ersan all project as full-time forwards, and Embiid plays best next to a forward that makes space for him to operate, the 3/4 minutes are pretty booked in Philly. My guess is Dallas comes in strong to grab a talented young guy for nothing but cap space, like they did with Barnes last summer, and Noel's in a Mavs Jersey next season. Something like $80-90 mil over 4.
Ersan is a free agent.  No guarantee he is back.  Covington is a quality player but he isn't a long term starter in Philly (given Simmons), especially when he might not be a Sixer past next season because he is due for a massive raise in two years.

So, I could easily see the Sixers having Embiid, Noel, Saric, with some Simmons mixed in at the 4/5 spots next year with Simmons and Covington at the 3. 
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Re: What will Noel's new contract look like?
« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2017, 11:16:14 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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Sixers aren't going to pay Noel $100M to be a backup when he wants to start and wants out.

Does he still want out? He's getting the opportunities he wants now and seems to be more content than before.