Author Topic: Why the C's Should Keep the Picks  (Read 4200 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Why the C's Should Keep the Picks
« on: January 23, 2017, 01:44:18 PM »

Offline Big333223

  • NCE
  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7489
  • Tommy Points: 741
I'll preface this by saying I haven't figured out all the money, so maybe more astute Celticsbloggers can correct me there if need be. Also, this is about the team a few years down the road, so it may be premature but it's January so whatever.

Except for a major, star-getting deal, I want to keep the Brooklyn assets and the Memphis pick. As much as possible, keep the core together, draft intelligently, and tweak the roster with trades and free agency to improve the weak spots. If we do this, I think we can contend for the next two seasons and maybe this one as well. 

The summer of 2019 is where it gets interesting. Jaylen will be entering his 4th season, the 2017 Pick his 3rd and the 2018 Pick his 2nd. The Celtics will likely have their own draft pick plus those of the Clippers and Grizzlies that summer which could be anywhere. Assuming they're still around, Bradley and Crowder will be 29, Thomas will be 30, and Horford 33. Crowder will be on an expiring deal and Horford will have a player option for his last year ($30 mil).

Assuming Horford picks up his option, the C's will be in a good position to either let things ride or, if they want, make some big trades with players who should still be attractive for teams wanting to compete.

This is all contingent on the C's drafting well, getting a little lucky, and not making any dumb free agency moves, but if things break right, we could have a fun team that wins 50+ games to root for a couple of years and then immediately have a really talented team mostly under the age of 24 that can compete for the next decade. I'm just marveling now at how well positioned this team is to never have to go into a full rebuild and be in contention for home court advantage every season for a long time, as long as they take care of business.
1957, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1969, 1974, 1976, 1981, 1984, 1986, 2008

Re: Why the C's Should Keep the Picks
« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2017, 02:17:07 PM »

Offline Chris22

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5081
  • Tommy Points: 460
Agreed.

Re: Why the C's Should Keep the Picks
« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2017, 02:27:25 PM »

Offline CelticGuardian

  • Jayson Tatum
  • Posts: 836
  • Tommy Points: 43
  • Blood. Sweat. & Tears.
I'll preface this by saying I haven't figured out all the money, so maybe more astute Celticsbloggers can correct me there if need be. Also, this is about the team a few years down the road, so it may be premature but it's January so whatever.

Except for a major, star-getting deal, I want to keep the Brooklyn assets and the Memphis pick. As much as possible, keep the core together, draft intelligently, and tweak the roster with trades and free agency to improve the weak spots. If we do this, I think we can contend for the next two seasons and maybe this one as well. 

The summer of 2019 is where it gets interesting. Jaylen will be entering his 4th season, the 2017 Pick his 3rd and the 2018 Pick his 2nd. The Celtics will likely have their own draft pick plus those of the Clippers and Grizzlies that summer which could be anywhere. Assuming they're still around, Bradley and Crowder will be 29, Thomas will be 30, and Horford 33. Crowder will be on an expiring deal and Horford will have a player option for his last year ($30 mil).

Assuming Horford picks up his option, the C's will be in a good position to either let things ride or, if they want, make some big trades with players who should still be attractive for teams wanting to compete.

This is all contingent on the C's drafting well, getting a little lucky, and not making any dumb free agency moves, but if things break right, we could have a fun team that wins 50+ games to root for a couple of years and then immediately have a really talented team mostly under the age of 24 that can compete for the next decade. I'm just marveling now at how well positioned this team is to never have to go into a full rebuild and be in contention for home court advantage every season for a long time, as long as they take care of business.

Man, I'm with you..

It's impossible to know what Danny Ainge is thinking and if he thinks this current core is championship material. Obviously he is high on these guys, but we all know for a fact that IT4 is not a top 3 player in this league. The guys that will be next in line to rule after LeDecline and the incoming Warriors roster overhaul will be Harden, Westbrook, AD, and the Spurs are always in the mix... LeBron has now faced 3 different teams in the ECF(Pacers in '14, Hawks in '15, and Raptors last year) there's clearly an opening there.

Danny has got to hit in this upcoming draft or trade the pick for what you envisioned to come into fruition, I think this summer is the most pivotal for the franchise during the time it's held the Nets pick (value is at it's peak). If Ainge is not so confident in this roster maybe it is wise not to express it and just continue to draft as if there are no logjams.

Re: Why the C's Should Keep the Picks
« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2017, 03:21:02 PM »

Offline Sixth Man

  • NCE
  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1008
  • Tommy Points: 82
Agree 100%.  Keep the picks and develop those players and we may well be creating a juggernaut that can dominate for five, maybe even ten years.  San Antonio East sounds good to me. 

Re: Why the C's Should Keep the Picks
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2017, 03:23:08 PM »

Offline BE-Celtic

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 593
  • Tommy Points: 48
Yes, this makes the more sense. Might bring a good numlber of contenting years rather than just 1/2

Re: Why the C's Should Keep the Picks
« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2017, 03:23:33 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11225
  • Tommy Points: 860
IT's contract is done spring 2018 so be summer of 2019, he will probably be long gone (the Celtics will not be the team to pull up the Brink's truck).  It also would not surprise me if Horford is traded in Summer of 2018 and we rebuild around all star players that we have drafted.

I do not see a team built around Thomas and Horford on max contracts ever being a title contender.

Re: Why the C's Should Keep the Picks
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2017, 03:41:04 PM »

Offline clevelandceltic

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 583
  • Tommy Points: 30
IT's contract is done spring 2018 so be summer of 2019, he will probably be long gone (the Celtics will not be the team to pull up the Brink's truck).  It also would not surprise me if Horford is traded in Summer of 2018 and we rebuild around all star players that we have drafted.

I do not see a team built around Thomas and Horford on max contracts ever being a title contender.

Its hard to see them getting rid of those players because it serves them very little to do so. They already have top picks. What would they gain in the trade?

Re: Why the C's Should Keep the Picks
« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2017, 03:52:54 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11225
  • Tommy Points: 860
IT's contract is done spring 2018 so be summer of 2019, he will probably be long gone (the Celtics will not be the team to pull up the Brink's truck).  It also would not surprise me if Horford is traded in Summer of 2018 and we rebuild around all star players that we have drafted.

I do not see a team built around Thomas and Horford on max contracts ever being a title contender.

Its hard to see them getting rid of those players because it serves them very little to do so. They already have top picks. What would they gain in the trade?

Opportunity cost.  If you resign IT and keep Horford that is about the end of your cap space for top line players.  Maybe by that time Jaylen Brown has gotten good but that just isn't all that good of a team.  The IT/Horford team can win us a playoff round or maybe two (so long as IT continues to play out of his mind and Horford ages gracefully) but you don't want to hang on to that for too long.  I love that team for now but I don't want to double down with it.

Re: Why the C's Should Keep the Picks
« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2017, 03:55:35 PM »

Online BitterJim

  • NGT
  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8912
  • Tommy Points: 1212
IT's contract is done spring 2018 so be summer of 2019, he will probably be long gone (the Celtics will not be the team to pull up the Brink's truck).  It also would not surprise me if Horford is traded in Summer of 2018 and we rebuild around all star players that we have drafted.

I do not see a team built around Thomas and Horford on max contracts ever being a title contender.

Its hard to see them getting rid of those players because it serves them very little to do so. They already have top picks. What would they gain in the trade?

Opportunity cost.  If you resign IT and keep Horford that is about the end of your cap space for top line players.  Maybe by that time Jaylen Brown has gotten good but that just isn't all that good of a team.  The IT/Horford team can win us a playoff round or maybe two (so long as IT continues to play out of his mind and Horford ages gracefully) but you don't want to hang on to that for too long.  I love that team for now but I don't want to double down with it.

And if you get rid of the two of them, that is the end of top line players considering signing with the team (ESPECIALLY if you trade Horford just 2 years after signing with us)
I'm bitter.

Re: Why the C's Should Keep the Picks
« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2017, 03:56:37 PM »

Offline jay

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1346
  • Tommy Points: 50
Keeping the Nets picks makes me think a trade for Vucevic would be a good fit.  Maybe Amir + minny 2nd rounder plus Clippers 2019 pick?

Let Amir, Zeller, and Jerebko walk and keep moving forward with the youth movement.

Re: Why the C's Should Keep the Picks
« Reply #10 on: January 23, 2017, 04:59:36 PM »

Offline mctyson

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5087
  • Tommy Points: 372
I have said this a few times, but the real reason you have to keep the Nets picks for sure, and you are right probably the Memphis pick as well, is that draft picks are more valuable than they have ever been in the NBA.

Consider that the going rate of a trade for an multiple-time All-Star who is likely in his late 20s, early 30s, is at least one Nets pick, plus another 1st rounder (maybe 2), PLUS a player (like Smart, and maybe 2 players).  That is a massive future price to pay in any decade, but one that can be rationalized if you have a high probability win-now setup with a short window (like the Cavs did with Wiggins-for-Love).

However, with the new CBA, even disgruntled players like Love or Cousins (or Anthony Davis) can be kept on losing teams for them to build around, given that these teams can offer them ridiculous sums of money the players can't get anywhere else.  In reality, the trades and signings of the past where big-name all-stars get traded largely for financial reasons are gone.  Every team is flush with cash. There may be the rare occurrence of a team that is so cheap or so, so bad that they scrap it all.  But let's face it:  Harden-to-Houston is not happening again.

So the most likely available players are those 2nd tier or 3rd tier guys that have All-Star talent but are nowhere near the level or dominance required to assure your team is a title contender.  Goran Dragic or Andre Dummond come to mind here.  These guys will have the same asking price as Kevin Love had.  Why?  Because they will be the best available in a trade.  They set the market.  And if you are a desperate team, maybe you make that mistake of overpaying in a low-supply, high-demand setting.

Fortunately for us the Celtics nor Danny Ainge are desperate.  They realize that they could draft the rookie equivalents of players like Love/Drummond/Dragic (or even better) and have these guys under lock-and-key for at least 4 years, but possibly over a decade, and maybe even for their entire career.  All while having a 50-win product on the court to boot!

It is a great spot to be in and I hope he sits tight.


Re: Why the C's Should Keep the Picks
« Reply #11 on: January 23, 2017, 05:54:40 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

  • NCE
  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20000
  • Tommy Points: 1323
Quote
I have said this a few times, but the real reason you have to keep the Nets picks for sure, and you are right probably the Memphis pick as well, is that draft picks are more valuable than they have ever been in the NBA.

This may be true with the new CBA, but it was not true the last few drafts, Ainge could not give picks away to move up.

I think it depends who you get in return.   If I could trade 3 firsts and filler to get Davis, I would do it.   I realize NO would not.

Every year we hear what a strong draft this class is or that class and yet, it rarely pans out that way.   We see more and more high picks not performing like past high picks because kids quite frankly come out too early and are not NBA ready.   None of the above insightful comments acknowledge this fact.

Re: Why the C's Should Keep the Picks
« Reply #12 on: January 23, 2017, 06:02:33 PM »

Offline droopdog7

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6970
  • Tommy Points: 466
It's really a bird in the hand situation.  Trading for an established player is the bird in the hand, because we more or less know what kind of player we'll have.  Keeping the picks is the unknown, not only based on drafting a college player but also because we won't know what number we will pick or who will be there at the moment. 

If we go the building through the draft way, we'll have to get lucky and pick stars.  Chance that that happens is far from guaranteed. Plenty of teams drafted in the top 10 for many consecutive years and never got any good. 

But going back to trading the picks, it's just so hard to do until you know the number and who is in the draft.  I laugh when people say, hey, if it's not #1 then trade it.  Well, as soon as you find out it's not #1, then it loses a bunch of value.  At the same time, the other team certainly isn't going to value any of the picks at #1 unless they know it's in fact, #1 (or whatever number you want to say).  So this kind of trade simply doesn't work because of the unknown factor with regard to the value of the picks.

All that said, my thinking is that fans have it backwards.  The mostly likely scenario under which picks are traded is if they fall at #1 (assuming teams think Fultz is a star).  At that point, teams will come knocking and maybe give up an established player/star. 

Re: Why the C's Should Keep the Picks
« Reply #13 on: January 23, 2017, 06:10:38 PM »

Offline mctyson

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5087
  • Tommy Points: 372
Quote
I have said this a few times, but the real reason you have to keep the Nets picks for sure, and you are right probably the Memphis pick as well, is that draft picks are more valuable than they have ever been in the NBA.

This may be true with the new CBA, but it was not true the last few drafts, Ainge could not give picks away to move up.

I think it depends who you get in return.   If I could trade 3 firsts and filler to get Davis, I would do it.   I realize NO would not.

Every year we hear what a strong draft this class is or that class and yet, it rarely pans out that way.   We see more and more high picks not performing like past high picks because kids quite frankly come out too early and are not NBA ready.   None of the above insightful comments acknowledge this fact.

I do not disagree that there is far too much hope for draftees and not enough realism.  I guess my point is that the net return on the "hope," going forward, is going to be much lower than it has been in the past.  Because of this, we need to keep the picks.

Re: Why the C's Should Keep the Picks
« Reply #14 on: January 23, 2017, 06:57:33 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

  • NCE
  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20000
  • Tommy Points: 1323
Quote
I do not disagree that there is far too much hope for draftees and not enough realism.

TP