Is this the greatest college freshman class in the history of the NBA draft? How many potential stars could enter the league in 2017?
Here's our look at top prospects Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson and more freshmen, based on feedback from NBA scouts and GMs to separate the players into tiers from 1 to 5.
It has been 11 years since the NBA changed the early-entry rules prohibiting high school seniors from entering the draft. In that time, college freshmen have taken over.
Just two freshmen were taken in the first round of the 2006 draft, the first one after the high school senior ban. By 2008, that number grew to 11, including eight in the lottery. A new record was set in 2015 with 13 freshman first-rounders and eight lottery picks.
The 2017 draft has a chance to shatter that record.
Our Top 100 currently projects 20 freshmen to be taken in the first round this year, with 12 in the lottery. And it's not just the sheer number of freshmen that has scouts excited. It's the quality as well.
I asked a number of NBA GMs and scouts to apply the tier system that I've been using for years.
A whopping 11 freshmen fell in one of the top three tiers, which essentially means a range from NBA superstars to regular starters. The most we've ever had was six in the 2014 draft, headlined by Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins.
So, let's get to the tiers.
Note: Players in each tier are listed alphabetically.
Tier 1 (Potential superstars)
Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA
Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington
Only eight players have been ranked in this slot since we started doing this in 2009: Blake Griffin, John Wall, Anthony Davis, Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker, Karl-Anthony Towns and Ben Simmons.
That's pretty elite company.
This year, there is still a major question among NBA scouts and GMs about whether there are any Tier 1 prospects. Most of the NBA people I spoke with were hesitant to make the call just yet and said they won't be sure until we get closer to the draft. However, Ball and Fultz have very high ceilings and pretty high floors. They received enough votes to rank here, despite a number of GMs and scouts ranking them as Tier 2 players.
Fultz's all-around game, athleticism and versatility make him a virtually can't-miss prospect. Ball's unique combination of size and court vision have some scouts comparing him to Jason Kidd with a jump shot.
"I'm not sure there are superstars in this draft," one GM said. "I'm not sure I see the guy that turns around a franchise. But both Ball and Fultz have that potential. The position that they play and the lack of great, young point guards right now in the league give them that potential. They could really lead a new generation of big, multi-positional point guards."
Tier 2 (All-Star potential)
Harry Giles, F/C, Duke
Josh Jackson, G/F, Kansas
Malik Monk, G, Kentucky
Dennis Smith Jr., PG, North Carolina State
Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke
All five of the players here got a small handful of Tier 1 votes -- especially Smith and Tatum. The general consensus in the race for the No. 1 pick seems to be wide open. Only Monk and Giles received any Tier 3 votes from NBA folks.
Smith and Jackson both have elite athletic ability to go along with great passing skills, but inconsistent jump shots (especially for Jackson) hurt their cases for Tier 1.
Tatum is a prototypical small forward in the NBA physically, though his 3-point shot is still a question mark. Monk may be both the best scorer and most explosive athlete in the draft, but he lacks positional size.
Giles is an especially compelling case. Virtually every team I spoke with believes he is a Tier 1 talent, but two major ACL surgeries and another minor knee procedure this fall -- along with a slow start to the season -- give them pause. If he fully recovers, all of them agreed he belongs in Tier 1, but he received only two votes for Tier 1 right now and five votes for Tier 3.
Tier 3 (NBA starters)
Miles Bridges, F, Michigan State
De'Aaron Fox, PG, Kentucky
Jonathan Isaac, SF, Florida State
Lauri Markkanen, PF, Arizona
Fox, Isaac and Markkanen all received a few Tier 2 votes. Fox, especially, seems to be gaining ground among NBA scouts with his strong play for Kentucky this season. His elite speed and ballhandling abilities wow scouts. His 15 percent shooting from beyond the arc doesn't. He's getting better as a shooter, though, and could move into Tier 2 if he really starts hitting jumpers with any regularity.
Isaac has many of the same qualities that Brandon Ingram brought to the table last year -- and Isaac might be an even better shooter at this stage. But Ingram's lack of strength and slow start in L.A. hurt him a bit.
Markkanen seems like the consummate NBA stretch-4. He's a terrific shooter, protects the rim and plays with a very high basketball IQ.
Bridges received two Tier 4 votes. He's an A-plus athlete and versatile offensive player, but his decision-making can be questionable on both ends of the floor.
Tier 4 (Starters, high-level rotation players)
Edrice Adebayo, PF, Kentucky
Jarrett Allen, C, Texas
T.J. Leaf, PF, UCLA
Justin Patton, C, Creighton
Robert Williams, PF, Texas A&M
In an average draft, Tier 4 typically makes up selections 10-20. This year, with so many players in Tiers 1-3, this range looks more like Nos. 15-20.
Leaf, Patton and Williams all received a few Tier 3 votes. Patton has been rising rapidly on draft boards over the past month. He's posting an effective field goal percentage of 75.3 percent while shooting 85 percent at the rim, according to Hoop-Math.com. He needs to get stronger, but all the tools are there. He has moved up to No. 14 in our latest Top 100 update, and his analytics projections put him as a top-10 prospect.
Leaf and Patton are sort of polar opposites. Put them together and you'd have the perfect prospect. Leaf is one of the top offensive players in the country, though he lacks elite size and has some holes defensively. Williams is a defensive monster, but still coming along on the offensive end.
Adebayo and Allen were both highly ranked high school players who are still major works in progress. Adebayo has the body of an NBA power forward and he's a great athlete, but his feel for the game is a question mark. Allen has been solid for Texas as a freshman. However, he's a major work in progress who won't be ready any time soon to play meaningful minutes for an NBA team.
Tier 5 (Rotation players)
Ike Anigbogu, F/C, UCLA
Marques Bolden, C, Duke
Tony Bradley, C, North Carolina
Zach Collins, C, Gonzaga
Omer Yurtseven, C, North Carolina State
Tier 5 is for rotation players who are unlikely to start for good teams but could be solid role players off the bench. That's roughly picks Nos. 21-35.
All of these players have their fans. Anigbogu plays the fewest minutes but might have the most buzz; he received a couple of Tier 4 votes. He's an athletic player with a great motor and shows a lot of promise on the defensive end.
Collins is the dark horse. Scouts weren't expecting much from him as a freshman, but he has had a significant impact on the team and he can really do it all on both ends of the floor. He has been rising lately and could end up making a leap over all the other guys in Tier 5. He was the other guy on this list to get a few Tier 4 votes.
Bolden was the highest-ranked player in this group before the season began. He has all the physical tools to be a good NBA center but doesn't always play hard and has struggled to crack the rotation at Duke.
Bradley has played meaningful minutes off the bench for North Carolina, and while he doesn't scream NBA superstar, his length and defensive abilities make him an attractive rotation player.
Yurtseven dominated European competition, but he has struggled to make the transition to college. He did just post his best game of the season recently with 12 points and 16 rebounds against Pitt, and NBA teams generally think there's a lot of upside down the road.
Other freshmen to watch
Andrew Jones, G, Texas; Frank Jackson, G, Duke; De'Anthony Melton, PG, USC; Wenyen Gabriel, F, Kentucky; Kobi Simmons, PG, Arizona; Rawle Alkins, G/F, Arizona; Justin Jackson, F, Maryland; Bruce Brown, G, Miami; V.J. King, SF, Louisville; Mustapha Heron, G, Auburn; Michael Weathers, G, Miami (OH)
Topic: Chad Ford's 2017 Draft Tiers (Read 3613 times)