What pick in this year's draft for the BKN 18?

[Boris Badenov]

Suppose it's draft day 2017. The Nets end up with the worst record, as they have now, and haven't yet made any moves suggesting they will improve dramatically in 2017-18.

We offer up the BKN 2018 pick for one in the 2017 draft...how high could we get?

[A Future of Stevens]

I would assume top 12. Other teams have to assume the nets cant make that big of a jump, but they also have to take current value vs perceived future value.

[greece66]

@Boris Badenov

That's rather speculative and I do not feel qualified enough to answer.

My gut feeling though is that we would be lucky to get a top-10 pick for BRK18.

Not saying this is it's 'real' value, but a) the 2017 draft is seen as a good one b) the sooner a team gets a pick the more it is usually prepared to pay c) even assuming everything suggested BRK will be p bad in 2018, a team would have to offer you a precise pick in exchange for a pick whose value has yet to be determined. Uncertainty comes at a cost.

As usual, I think we are better off keeping the BRK picks until their value has been determined. With picks that are potentially top 5, you'd rather not take risks.

[Boris Badenov]

Yeah, I guess it's hard to see how we could get much higher than 7.

I got curious because in some sense, if BKN is the worst team in the league with no prospects for improvement, that pick is the most valuable one you could get in the next draft.

So it really is just a question of now vs. later, and certainty vs. uncertainty, and how those are priced by the market.

My instinct says those are pretty big factors, just wondering whether others agree.

[Neurotic Guy]

Not sure any lottery team would opt for that trade with the quality available this year -- maybe very late lottery.   I wonder how high you could get if DA paired the 2018 with Jaylen, Rozier, Marcus or Bradley. 

[Tr1boy]

Suppose it's draft day 2017. The Nets end up with the worst record, as they have now, and haven't yet made any moves suggesting they will improve dramatically in 2017-18.

We offer up the BKN 2018 pick for one in the 2017 draft...how high could we get?

The evil 76ers could trade their 2nd 1st (7-9 range) for that 2018 nets 1st imo

They have nothing to lose

[Boris Badenov]

I think the last time a high pick was traded for something other than another high pick was the Jeff Green trade.

Also a deep draft, but to get to #5 Seattle had to give up Ray Allen, an established All-NBA player, albeit on the downside of his career.

In that same year Jason Richardson, a borderline All-Star, was worth the #8 pick.

But it seems to me we could get a borderline All-Star for that BKN pick, unless we are vastly over-rating it.

[rochrist]

Suppose it's draft day 2017. The Nets end up with the worst record, as they have now, and haven't yet made any moves suggesting they will improve dramatically in 2017-18.

We offer up the BKN 2018 pick for one in the 2017 draft...how high could we get?

Why would you do that when the 18 draft appears to be loaded with good players at positions of need?

[greece66]

Yeah, I guess it's hard to see how we could get much higher than 7.

I got curious because in some sense, if BKN is the worst team in the league with no prospects for improvement, that pick is the most valuable one you could get in the next draft.

So it really is just a question of now vs. later, and certainty vs. uncertainty, and how those are priced by the market.

My instinct says those are pretty big factors, just wondering whether others agree.

Yep, most certainly agree. These are huge factors. And also the way the lottery odds are constructed, the team that ends last is actually significantly more likely to pick 4th than 1st - this randomness that is built into the draft order makes such trades even riskier.

This goes both ways btw. I believe if Boston were to trade the pick it would add some protection - this is what happened in the most recent relevant case (MCW trade). Btw Boris, can you think of any other similar trades? Past experience is to my mind the best guide in try to figure out the value of picks.

[chilidawg]

Yeah, I guess it's hard to see how we could get much higher than 7.

I got curious because in some sense, if BKN is the worst team in the league with no prospects for improvement, that pick is the most valuable one you could get in the next draft.

So it really is just a question of now vs. later, and certainty vs. uncertainty, and how those are priced by the market.

My instinct says those are pretty big factors, just wondering whether others agree.

Yep, most certainly agree. These are huge factors. And also the way the lottery odds are constructed, the team that ends last is actually significantly more likely to pick 4th than 1st - this randomness that is built into the draft order makes such trades even riskier.

This goes both ways btw. I believe if Boston were to trade the pick it would add some protection - this is what happened in the most recent relevant case (MCW trade). Btw Boris, can you think of any other similar trades? Past experience is to my mind the best guide in try to figure out the value of picks.

An alternative way to look at this is that the team that ends last is twice as likely to pick in the top 3 as they are to end up 4th.  That's the glass half full view.

[KG Living Legend]

 How about the worst of Philly's picks this year.

 I would only consider it for a top 8 pick. There is a big drop off after that IMO.

 Fultz
 Ball
 Jackson
 Dennis Smith JR
 Tatum
 Fox
 Isaac
 Monk
 
 Also I wouldn't trade the 2018 pick for Smith, Fox or Monk. That's just me.
 

[tazzmaniac]

 How about the worst of Philly's picks this year.

 I would only consider it for a top 8 pick. There is a big drop off after that IMO.

 Fultz
 Ball
 Jackson
 Dennis Smith JR
 Tatum
 Fox
 Isaac
 Monk
 
 Also I wouldn't trade the 2018 pick for Smith, Fox or Monk. That's just me.

The Sixers need guards and wings.  So why would the they trade one of their 1sts in a draft loaded with guards and wings?  Imagine what they'll look like when they add two of the top 10 picks to Embiid and Simmons. 

[Greyman]

It's an interesting thought, especially if you have traded some of your core for an all star. The 8 to 10 range is where I think you could get two franchises to agree, maybe 6 or 7 at a stretch.

I doubt it happens though.

[greece66]

Yeah, I guess it's hard to see how we could get much higher than 7.

I got curious because in some sense, if BKN is the worst team in the league with no prospects for improvement, that pick is the most valuable one you could get in the next draft.

So it really is just a question of now vs. later, and certainty vs. uncertainty, and how those are priced by the market.

My instinct says those are pretty big factors, just wondering whether others agree.

Yep, most certainly agree. These are huge factors. And also the way the lottery odds are constructed, the team that ends last is actually significantly more likely to pick 4th than 1st - this randomness that is built into the draft order makes such trades even riskier.

This goes both ways btw. I believe if Boston were to trade the pick it would add some protection - this is what happened in the most recent relevant case (MCW trade). Btw Boris, can you think of any other similar trades? Past experience is to my mind the best guide in try to figure out the value of picks.

An alternative way to look at this is that the team that ends last is twice as likely to pick in the top 3 as they are to end up 4th.  That's the glass half full view.

Sure, I fully agree with this optimistic take. There is no doubt that the pick of the last team has the best odds. It also guarantees you a top-4 pick, which is nothing to scoff at.

My point was I guess, that fans often confuse two different propositions

(i) The last team has a higher % than any other team to get the first pick

(ii) The last team is more likely to get the 1st pick than any other pick

(i) is true but (ii) is not.