Author Topic: Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...  (Read 1915 times)

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Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...
« on: January 20, 2017, 11:04:09 AM »

Offline Fireworks_Boom!

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We've talked ad nausea about trades which yield us a superstar caliber player. What if we sell (high) this season on current roster players to set us up for major changes going forward? 

Players on current roster who would be considered on a "high":

Isaiah Thomas: This year's draft has a glut of PG prospects
Avery Bradley: Celtics have a glut of guards on this roster
Jae Crowder: He is really a role player who has exceeded expectations given talent on this roster. On a championship team he is an 8 or 9 man getting 15-20 min a night.

Now lets look at what return might be for each of these players:
Isaiah Thomas: 1st round pick + young lottery pick talent or cost-controlled upper middle tier player (Khris Middleton, Danillo Gallinari)
Avery Bradley: 1st round pick OR young lottery pick talent or equivalent middle tier player
Jae Crowder: non-lottery 1st round pick independently OR part of package with above players

Each player above would have a shortlist of target teams who would be interested. I come back to the Cavs or the Bulls...the Cavs need upgrades to compete against Warriors. The Bulls are a mess. Avery Bradley could dramatically help  either team. Crowder would be an excellent addition to bolster defense.

Other teams who could look for improvements:

Wizards (running hot right now could be buyers rather than sellers)
Knicks (poorly run and constantly buyers even though they should blow up and start over)


Re: Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...
« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2017, 11:17:29 AM »

Online BitterJim

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Quote
Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...

This isn't necessarily true.  It's very possible to make a trade that hurts short term and long term (i.e. the IT trade from the Suns' perspective).  If we traded Crowder for a late first rounder (as you seem to suggest), that would be another example of a deal that hurts short and long term
I'm bitter.

Re: Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...
« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2017, 11:20:32 AM »

Offline fantankerous

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This thread should be titled, "how to get fired as a gm 101."

Re: Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...
« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2017, 11:34:57 AM »

Online BitterJim

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This thread should be titled, "how to get fired as a gm 101."

Alternatively: 
Quote
"Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)..." - Ted Stepien
I'm bitter.

Re: Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...
« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2017, 11:35:52 AM »

Offline Fireworks_Boom!

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Fantankerous - I disagree with your assessment but would happily welcome you to expand on your thoughts. It is arguable this team even adding a 1st pick and a max FA is still not able to compete with GSW or CLE.

Bittierjim - I agree with your comment, trades can both help/hurt. The Crowder situation where we only yield a 1st round pick would be an example. I wasn't necessarily advocating for this but rather outlining what I believe his league wide value is. I would prefer we go for a big ticket option with Crowder part of the package (Cousins, Butler, George) but I don't see any of these teams loosening up.

Re: Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...
« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2017, 11:39:08 AM »

Offline littleteapot

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Quote
Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...

This isn't necessarily true.  It's very possible to make a trade that hurts short term and long term (i.e. the IT trade from the Suns' perspective).  If we traded Crowder for a late first rounder (as you seem to suggest), that would be another example of a deal that hurts short and long term
I don't think overall the Suns lost out long-term with Thomas. The Suns signed Thomas that year and sold him for a draft pick in a year where they weren't making the playoffs. They basically paid money for a draft pick. However obviously if they knew what he would become they would have traded other guards and given him the role we gave him.

To the original question, building a winning team is tough and when you have a tier 2 team, it's usually a bad idea to just gut it unless you really have to. The only thing I could see Ainge doing is a lateral move because he thinks one of his players is overvalued or will not continue to play as well as he currently plays.
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Re: Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...
« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2017, 11:57:31 AM »

Online BitterJim

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Quote
Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...

This isn't necessarily true.  It's very possible to make a trade that hurts short term and long term (i.e. the IT trade from the Suns' perspective).  If we traded Crowder for a late first rounder (as you seem to suggest), that would be another example of a deal that hurts short and long term
I don't think overall the Suns lost out long-term with Thomas. The Suns signed Thomas that year and sold him for a draft pick in a year where they weren't making the playoffs. They basically paid money for a draft pick. However obviously if they knew what he would become they would have traded other guards and given him the role we gave him.

To the original question, building a winning team is tough and when you have a tier 2 team, it's usually a bad idea to just gut it unless you really have to. The only thing I could see Ainge doing is a lateral move because he thinks one of his players is overvalued or will not continue to play as well as he currently plays.

If I buy a scratch ticket for $1, it wins $100, and then I sell it for $5, I made a bad sale.  Sure, I gained money overall, but I traded $100 (in this case, Isaiah) for $5 (in this case, the #28 pick, a very minor trade asset in the Marquesse Chriss deal).  The Suns would be in a much better posistion today and when the trade happened if they had just kept Isaiah instead of trading him to us for peanuts.  Obviously, they didn't know he was gonna explode like he did, but even if he had stayed the same player he was for them (averaging 15ppg in under 26mpg, plus the 2nd best WS/48 on the team), he would have had more value than the #28 pick
I'm bitter.

Re: Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...
« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2017, 12:45:20 PM »

Offline makaveli

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there is no way angie's plan is to accumulate more picks...that is a fact
the only way is for this team is up, yes you can argue, there is no chance we can build a roster to pass the Cavs or the Warriors this year, but you just have to try, just like there is no guarantee that the Nets pick, or Jaylen Brown won't turn up to be the next Bennet, Olawakandi, Milicic, Bargani, Oden or whatever.

what doesn't kill you makes you stronger

Re: Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...
« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2017, 12:51:48 PM »

Offline Granath

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Quote
Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...

This isn't necessarily true.  It's very possible to make a trade that hurts short term and long term (i.e. the IT trade from the Suns' perspective).  If we traded Crowder for a late first rounder (as you seem to suggest), that would be another example of a deal that hurts short and long term
I don't think overall the Suns lost out long-term with Thomas. The Suns signed Thomas that year and sold him for a draft pick in a year where they weren't making the playoffs. They basically paid money for a draft pick. However obviously if they knew what he would become they would have traded other guards and given him the role we gave him.

To the original question, building a winning team is tough and when you have a tier 2 team, it's usually a bad idea to just gut it unless you really have to. The only thing I could see Ainge doing is a lateral move because he thinks one of his players is overvalued or will not continue to play as well as he currently plays.

If I buy a scratch ticket for $1, it wins $100, and then I sell it for $5, I made a bad sale.  Sure, I gained money overall, but I traded $100 (in this case, Isaiah) for $5 (in this case, the #28 pick, a very minor trade asset in the Marquesse Chriss deal).  The Suns would be in a much better posistion today and when the trade happened if they had just kept Isaiah instead of trading him to us for peanuts.  Obviously, they didn't know he was gonna explode like he did, but even if he had stayed the same player he was for them (averaging 15ppg in under 26mpg, plus the 2nd best WS/48 on the team), he would have had more value than the #28 pick

TP. If someone doesn't think the Suns lost out trading IT....WOW.   :o

Though selling high is a good thing to do it makes zero sense here. Let's sell high to tank and start over...? I can't even comprehend this. Do some people enjoy losing? This is a team on pace for 52 wins, guys like IT and Crowder are just getting into their primes with talent like Smart and Brown (and our draft-and-stash guys) waiting in the wings and finally being attractive to FAs this team isn't "capped out" yet. It'd be one thing if they figured they reached their zenith and decided to sell the parts before the inevitable decline happened (ATL should have done this last year) but this is a team still on the rise.
Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Re: Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...
« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2017, 01:13:52 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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there is no way angie's plan is to accumulate more picks...that is a fact my assumption
the only way is for this team is up, yes you can argue, there is no chance we can build a roster to pass the Cavs or the Warriors this year, but you just have to try, just like there is no guarantee that the Nets pick, or Jaylen Brown won't turn up to be the next Bennet, Olawakandi, Milicic, Bargani, Oden or whatever.
fixed that for you.

Danny may not be finished accumulating picks.  He may have his eye on a deal where having more picks to include in the deal may be a key factor.

Re: Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...
« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2017, 01:30:07 PM »

Offline TrueFan

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IT4 just moved into the top 5 MVP conversation and you just don't trade those guys unless we get some crazy deal like Porzingis.

Even then you have to keep IT4 because of the bond between IT and the fans.

It's a bad PR move to rip IT4 off this team. I don't see it happening.

Re: Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...
« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2017, 05:40:43 PM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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Isaiah Thomas: 1st round pick + young lottery pick talent or cost-controlled upper middle tier player (Khris Middleton, Danillo Gallinari)
Avery Bradley: 1st round pick OR young lottery pick talent or equivalent middle tier player
Jae Crowder: non-lottery 1st round pick independently OR part of package with above players
How long term are we looking? Because in 5 years the probabilities say that you are better off keeping these guys. IT is the oldest of the 3 at 28. This isn't the end of the big 3 era...

You're gambling that those picks turn into a player as good as Bradley or Crowder. Whoever you think is coming back in a trade for IT certainly isn't reaching the same levels.

Bad idea I'm afraid. Invest in what you've got, we have enough draft picks (and high ones) coming in over the next few years

Re: Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...
« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2017, 03:06:38 AM »

Offline GRADYCOLNON

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IT's trade value is tied directly to his size.  He is the worst defender in the league, and he only offsets his poor barn door swinging defense with a fantastic barrage of scoring.  If Ainge didn't throw him the keys for a joy ride and released him from the "he can't defend so he doesn't deserve minutes" narrative, he would not have fit into Steven's plans and we may not be as ready to declare him for MVP.  In Ainge's faith, I am grateful for IT, and the surrounding players that cover up a lot of the defensive miscues.  This is why I believe IT has more value to the Celtics than any other team in the league.  No other team has the structure to support IT's playing style and may be the reason that many would recuse themselves from trade talks; ultimately, driving down IT's possible value. 

Re: Trades that hurt (short term) helps (long term)...
« Reply #13 on: January 21, 2017, 05:48:11 AM »

Offline Somebody

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We've talked ad nausea about trades which yield us a superstar caliber player. What if we sell (high) this season on current roster players to set us up for major changes going forward? 

Players on current roster who would be considered on a "high":

Isaiah Thomas: This year's draft has a glut of PG prospects
Avery Bradley: Celtics have a glut of guards on this roster
Jae Crowder: He is really a role player who has exceeded expectations given talent on this roster. On a championship team he is an 8 or 9 man getting 15-20 min a night.

Now lets look at what return might be for each of these players:
Isaiah Thomas: 1st round pick + young lottery pick talent or cost-controlled upper middle tier player (Khris Middleton, Danillo Gallinari)
Avery Bradley: 1st round pick OR young lottery pick talent or equivalent middle tier player
Jae Crowder: non-lottery 1st round pick independently OR part of package with above players

Each player above would have a shortlist of target teams who would be interested. I come back to the Cavs or the Bulls...the Cavs need upgrades to compete against Warriors. The Bulls are a mess. Avery Bradley could dramatically help  either team. Crowder would be an excellent addition to bolster defense.

Other teams who could look for improvements:

Wizards (running hot right now could be buyers rather than sellers)
Knicks (poorly run and constantly buyers even though they should blow up and start over)
If the pick is a top 5 pick in the 17 draft and the lottery talent is someone like Emmanuel Mudiay I would say that's a fair trade, IT's value is around a clear cut superstar like Jimmy Butler with the way he's playing right now.
For Bradley, if the pick is top 10 or if the lottery talent is someone like Victor Oladipo I'd say it's fair.
For Crowder though....I'd say a pick in the range of 12 to 15 in the 17 draft (late lottery) is pretty fair because we're looking at a very good top 15 sf that can play on both ends of the floor and is a great glue guy for any team.
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