Author Topic: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?  (Read 11954 times)

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Re: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?
« Reply #45 on: January 18, 2017, 04:55:45 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Let's talk money.

Are you keeping Gallo next season?  How much do you intend to pay him?  Or do you think he just stays for his players option?  Are you keeping Olynyk?  In terms of Gallo and Olynyk, how much are they going to have in salary for the 2018-2019 season?

That last question matters, because now you have IT, Bradley, and Smart hitting free agency, and you have a decision to make on Jokic.  You can decline his option and make him a restricted free agent, or you can keep him at his low salary for another year and hope that he doesn't leave you in unrestricted free agency.  Since we've traded the Brooklyn pick for Jokic, he's getting the max.  IT is getting the max.  If we've kept Gallo and Olynyk, along with Horford and some other salaries (Crowder and Brown) we're probably well into luxury tax territory before even talking about Smart and Bradley.

Accordingly, if you're going to let Gallo walk next summer, he shouldn't be in the deal.  And then it's a straight up Brooklyn pick for Jokic trade.  If you're going to let Olynyk walk because you're keeping Gallo, he should be in the deal with a lesser pick.  Signing both of those guys next summer is going to cause a lot of pain in 2018.

The prize of the deal is Jokic. I also like the fact that his salary, at least for the next 2 seasons, would be significantly less than that of the #1 pick. Those savings could be plentiful in giving Hayward the max.

As for Gallo, I would be perfectly fine in letting him walk. I do think he could really help us out the rest of this season. However, him getting minutes at the 3, along with Crowder already in place, would potentially stunt Brown's growth. The investment in Brown is too great to risk it on Gallo.

Hayward can play either the 2 or 3 spot and I really like him at the 2. Like DeRozan, who has a big size advantage over the majority of 2's, Hayward can really take advantage of his defenders there. At the same time, this would appease Crowder. So, yes, in this scenario I would have us trading away Bradley in needed.

I understand what the prize is.  What I'm saying is that the money is trickier than you're giving it credit for.  You're giving up the potential #1 pick in the draft for Jokic -- you can either make him a restricted free agent in 2018 and max him then, or wait until 2019 when he's an unrestricted free agent.  He's a savings next year over the pick, but that savings is short-lived.

Let's take your plan of getting Hayward in July, and either trading Bradley or letting him walk (I vote the latter, because he's a good player and would provide injury insurance in 2017 for either Hayward or Crowder, since Hayward could slide to the 3 in such a scenario.)

In 2018, if you make Jokic a restricted free agent and max him, and max IT, you would have $128.5 million committed to just 6 players -- Horford, Hayward, Jokic, IT, Crowder, and Brown.  The luxury tax is forecast to be $129 million.  We haven't talked about Smart yet, and we've assumed Bradley is going.  Then there's the 2018 Brooklyn pick, Zizic, Yab, and Rozier.  None are that expensive -- collectively it's about $12 million.  But it's very easy to see the teams salary hitting at least $154 million if you keep Smart.  That'd be a luxury tax bill in excess of $63 million for a single season.

So instead you could not pay Jokic in 2018.  There'd likely be a small luxury tax bill, but it'd be manageable, and you could keep Smart.  But you're just kicking the can down the road, because Jokic is getting paid in 2019, and none of the above players are coming off the books.  Or Jokic decides to leave because he's mad he played for an extra season at the minimum salary when you could have made him a free agent.

So you could make the trade, but you'd have your desired team for at most a season and a half before it started to become prohibitively expensive and losing key pieces, and maybe several.  Do you think you're winning a title this year with that team? Next? You have to be really confident that you are, and I'm frankly not.  I'm confident it would be better, but not better enough.

I would be onboard with the plan to pay Jokic in the summer of 2019. I strongly doubt he would walk away from the 5 year deal max we would be able to offer him. Especially when you consider he would be part of a championship contender. Yes, I do think that a team consisting of Horford, Crowder, Jokic, Thomas, and Hayward starting, with Smart, Brown, Zizic, Rozier, Yab, 2018 pick, etc. off the bench, would be title contenders. Particularly when you factor in the expected development of such a young roster.

As for the luxury tax, Wyc is on record in saying that he has no issue paying the tax bill on a title contender. I see no reason why that roster as hypothetically constituted would make him believe otherwise. During the 2019-20 season James will be 35 years old, so although it's hard to forecast with so much fluidity, I would wager we would be the favorite to come out of the east.

I don't think I can trade a potential #1 overall on the hope that a player wouldn't be so angry at being paid $1.4 million instead of $26.75 million for a season that he'd leave and sign a 2-year deal elsewhere to be eligible for a 7-9 max when that contract ended.  If you want him for five years, you extend him a max qualifying offer as a restricted free agent.  Otherwise your cross your fingers.

And as for the luxury tax -- being willing to pay the luxury tax is not the same thing as having no budget.  Paying four post-spike max salaries at once is designed to be untenable.  I will be disappointed in ownership if they're not approaching the luxury tax in 2018, or even above it.  But during the last title-contending run they never had more than the fourth-highest bill in a season, and most of the time the tax bill was less than 10% of salary.  You're looking at easily eclipsing 25% of salary on a regular basis with that roster, and I just don't anticipate that at all.  The apron has been raised by $2 million (to $6 million over the cap).  Going to that level is about a $9 million tax bill, and is what I expect payroll to be at most seasons, if not under occasionally.

Re: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?
« Reply #46 on: January 18, 2017, 05:10:54 PM »

Offline Bucketgetter

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Jokic/Horford front court would be insane. As for value, I think it's a really fair trade. The people who laugh at Jokic being worth the #1 pick obviously haven't seen him play enough, but also the people who say it's not even close and that he's worth more than both BKN picks are in love with him too much.

However, while I think the celtics would do it because the value is fair and the fit is great, I don't see the Nuggets doing it. They get a fair return, but since they already have their future backcourt set in Mudiay and Murray, why would they give away their best asset and front court piece for a top pick in a draft that is guard heavy? I think if this was a draft where the top prizes were wings and bigs, like 2014, the Nuggets might pull the trigger, but not in this one.
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Re: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?
« Reply #47 on: January 18, 2017, 05:16:42 PM »

Offline byennie

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Jokic is fantastic. There's no way in double hockey sticks Denver is trading him for a draft pick, though. Mayyyybe if it already hit #1 (25% chance). Maybe 3 months ago, or in a "LeBron" draft.

Right now he's a 21 year old center touching 20/15/5 on 60/40/80 shooting. That kind of already established production would BE the #1 pick over anyone unproven out of college.

Re: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?
« Reply #48 on: January 18, 2017, 05:28:11 PM »

Offline konkmv

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The statline... the atats... numbers....
Would you take jokic over...drummund davis cousins towns adams gobert whiteside horford  deandre gasol?
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Re: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?
« Reply #49 on: January 18, 2017, 05:45:46 PM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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Where do I sign up?

A Al Horford/Nikola Jokic duo would be nuts!
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Re: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?
« Reply #50 on: January 18, 2017, 05:56:03 PM »

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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Boston has to get a heck of a lot more than Jokic and Gallo for a Brooklyn pick.
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Re: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?
« Reply #51 on: January 18, 2017, 06:05:41 PM »

Offline mr. dee

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Here we go again with people salivating over other teams center and underrate our assets.



We're not sending our #1 pick for a stat stuffer on bad team. I remember guys willing to trade KG and our lottery picks for guys like Andray Blatche and Kris Middleton.

If we're to get Jokic, its not for the #1 pick. It's for a legit MVP candidate or established All-Star. Wake up, people.

Danny would have nabbed him long ago before even his stock rose.
 

Re: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?
« Reply #52 on: January 18, 2017, 06:16:27 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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If we're to get Jokic, its not for the #1 pick.

Let's forget about this #1 pick thing. Let's talk actual players. Are you telling me you're 100% confident that Fultz, Ball, Jackson, or Monk are definitively better than Jokic? I love this draft, but let's not confuse things. There isn't an Anthony Davis type talent in this class.

Re: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?
« Reply #53 on: January 18, 2017, 06:16:51 PM »

Offline Big333223

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I think the OP's deal is pretty fair and sensible. Definitely one of the more sensible trade ideas I've seen. I hate to part with that Brooklyn pick but a rotation of IT, Bradley, Smart, Crowder, Gallinari, Brown, Horford, and Jokic would be incredibly dynamic on offense. The defense would be a question but I think there's enough versatilty and willingness that Stevens could make it work.

I'm not sure it's the right deal for the Celtics but I defeinitely think it's a fair one.
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Re: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?
« Reply #54 on: January 18, 2017, 06:17:44 PM »

Offline furball

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Here we go again with people salivating over other teams center and underrate our assets.



We're not sending our #1 pick for a stat stuffer on bad team.

You mean like Boogie Cousins???

Re: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?
« Reply #55 on: January 18, 2017, 06:33:46 PM »

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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Here we go again with people salivating over other teams center and underrate our assets.



We're not sending our #1 pick for a stat stuffer on bad team.

You mean like Boogie Cousins???

Cousins has had a bit more success in the NBA than Jokic.
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Re: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?
« Reply #56 on: January 18, 2017, 06:44:42 PM »

Offline furball

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Here we go again with people salivating over other teams center and underrate our assets.



We're not sending our #1 pick for a stat stuffer on bad team.

You mean like Boogie Cousins???

Cousins has had a bit more success in the NBA than Jokic.

By success you mean he's played longer???  By that argument Jokic has had a lot more success in the NBA than anyone in this years draft. 

Mind you, I am not saying I would trade for Jokic.  I haven't seen him play enough.  But if you are going to call him a stat stuffer on a bad team you may want to wait until Sacramento has a better record.  (It's gonna be a long wait)

Re: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?
« Reply #57 on: January 18, 2017, 06:45:40 PM »

Offline saltlover

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If we're to get Jokic, its not for the #1 pick.

Let's forget about this #1 pick thing. Let's talk actual players. Are you telling me you're 100% confident that Fultz, Ball, Jackson, or Monk are definitively better than Jokic? I love this draft, but let's not confuse things. There isn't an Anthony Davis type talent in this class.

I think Fultz is absolutely that good.  I mean, no, not Anthony Davis good, because Anthony Davis isn't a guard.  But I do think he's the best PG/combo guard prospect in years.  He can shoot, pass, and drive.  His turnover rate is really low for someone with his usage, especially when you consider he's a freshman.  His block rate is very impressive for a PG, and his steal rate is solid.  Physically he's got good size for a PG with a really nice wingspan of 6'9" or 6'10".  In an era where a lot of prospects turn 20 near the end of their first year of college or that summer, he doesn't turn 19 until after the draft combine.  He's 6-15 months younger than most of the other guys being looked at in the top 10.

He projects as either a 1 or 2, both offensively and defensively.  And not in a jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none way, but in that he'd be really good in either role.  He would legitimately supplant either Smart or Bradley in the rotation quickly enough to let one go in free agency.  He could be a longer, better-shooting Westbrook.

My only pause is that you never know how a kid is going to handle the pressure of the NBA.  That's it (also injury I guess, but he's no more or less likely to get injured than most players).  He absolutely is a franchise cornerstone.

The argument for Jokic, of course, is that we have only a 25% chance at Fultz.  And of course we have guards and could use a big.  But no, I wouldn't trade Fultz straight up for Jokic on a pure NBA talent level, disregarding everything else.  No way.

Re: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?
« Reply #58 on: January 18, 2017, 06:48:59 PM »

Online bdm860

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I'm just posting here, so years from now when we're arguing about something, I can say I was all aboard the Jokic hype train early, as it seems many aren't aware of what he's been doing over the last month or so and how he's progressed this season.  Even with what he was doing last year, you could argue he was better than Porzingis, at least from a per minute/possession/advanced stats perspective, and when he actually plays 30+mpg he still produces (23/12/5 in 9 games at 33mpg this year).  I'd trade the '17 pick for him. 

And I think many are overvaluing that 2017 pick, people are treating it like it's the #1 pick, which it's not, it only has a 25% chance of being #1, while it has a 36% chance of being #4.  Really that pick should be valued as pick #2.6 in the draft, because statistically speaking that's its most likely landing spot.  If you're opposed to trading #1, would you trade #2, #3, or #4 for Jokic?  How about for Porzingis?  If Jokic was coming out of Duke or Kentucky this year, where do you think he'd be slated to go? Flip the situation and think back over the years, how much would you give up for the #3 pick in the draft?  Would you trade '08-'13 Rondo?  '07 Paul Pierce?  Present day Avery Bradley? '07 Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, or Tony Allen?

If the C's hold onto the pick, and it turns into #1 great, now they can get more for it.
But if it turns into #2 or #3 or #4 it loses value, and then the C's probably wouldn't be able to get many of the deals people are proposing now for it (not just talking about this Jokic trade here).
« Last Edit: January 18, 2017, 09:33:07 PM by bdm860 »

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Re: Trade Idea: Jokic and Gallanari for Amir, Jonas, and Brooklyn #1 2017?
« Reply #59 on: January 18, 2017, 09:13:23 PM »

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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Here we go again with people salivating over other teams center and underrate our assets.



We're not sending our #1 pick for a stat stuffer on bad team.

You mean like Boogie Cousins???

Cousins has had a bit more success in the NBA than Jokic.

By success you mean he's played longer???  By that argument Jokic has had a lot more success in the NBA than anyone in this years draft. 

Mind you, I am not saying I would trade for Jokic.  I haven't seen him play enough.  But if you are going to call him a stat stuffer on a bad team you may want to wait until Sacramento has a better record.  (It's gonna be a long wait)

By success I mean that he's proven himself a top-level NBA player over several years.

I never said Jokic is a stat-stuffer; I don't know all that much about him, but in my opinion, he's not worth a potential No. 1 overall pick.
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