Author Topic: Updated Celtics Salary Cap projection  (Read 4166 times)

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Re: Updated Celtics Salary Cap projection
« Reply #15 on: January 16, 2017, 09:01:03 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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TP, nice work. I commented on the FanPost saying this probably increases the probability of renegotiating ITs contract with the cap space.

It also brings up an interesting dilemma with KO. For a chance at Hayward or Griffin I can understand letting him go. But if it's looking likely at the deadline that we are unlikely to pursue them, do we commit to him or look to trade him for a cost controlled asset that may bite into our overall cap space for the summer but leave us with better long term options.

For example trading KO + filler for someone like Okafor or Hezonja. So we could still go after a max RFA if we wanted to or we could renegotiate ITs contract

TP Saltover.

You can't renegotiate contracts in the NBA like you can in the NFL.  So you couldn't do anything with Thomas's contract.

I think if we had an agreement to sign Hayward it would make Crowder expendable, and I think we could easily trade him, and say lesser contract if need be like Jackson so we could keep Kelly's cap hold to re-sign him.  That could work right?

If we sign Griffin I have no problem letting Kelly walk.  We would need a reliable 3rd big though.
From Larry Coon's CBA FAQ

Quote
61. Can existing contracts be renegotiated?

A contract for four or more seasons can be renegotiated after the third anniversary of its signing, extension, or previous renegotiation (if the previous negotiation increased any season's salary by more than 4.5%). Contracts for fewer than four seasons cannot be renegotiated. A contract cannot be renegotiated between March 1 and June 30 of any year.

Only teams under the cap can renegotiate a contract, and the salary in the then-current season can be increased only to the extent that the team has room under the cap (and cannot increase the player's salary beyond the maximum salary). A renegotiation can only be used to provide a salary increase -- players can't take a "pay cut" in order to create more cap room for the team.

By renegotiate I mean what OKC did with Westbrook or Houston did with Harden over the summer

Re: Updated Celtics Salary Cap projection
« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2017, 09:51:55 AM »

Offline JBcat

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TP, nice work. I commented on the FanPost saying this probably increases the probability of renegotiating ITs contract with the cap space.

It also brings up an interesting dilemma with KO. For a chance at Hayward or Griffin I can understand letting him go. But if it's looking likely at the deadline that we are unlikely to pursue them, do we commit to him or look to trade him for a cost controlled asset that may bite into our overall cap space for the summer but leave us with better long term options.

For example trading KO + filler for someone like Okafor or Hezonja. So we could still go after a max RFA if we wanted to or we could renegotiate ITs contract

TP Saltover.

You can't renegotiate contracts in the NBA like you can in the NFL.  So you couldn't do anything with Thomas's contract.

I think if we had an agreement to sign Hayward it would make Crowder expendable, and I think we could easily trade him, and say lesser contract if need be like Jackson so we could keep Kelly's cap hold to re-sign him.  That could work right?

If we sign Griffin I have no problem letting Kelly walk.  We would need a reliable 3rd big though.
From Larry Coon's CBA FAQ

Quote
61. Can existing contracts be renegotiated?

A contract for four or more seasons can be renegotiated after the third anniversary of its signing, extension, or previous renegotiation (if the previous negotiation increased any season's salary by more than 4.5%). Contracts for fewer than four seasons cannot be renegotiated. A contract cannot be renegotiated between March 1 and June 30 of any year.

Only teams under the cap can renegotiate a contract, and the salary in the then-current season can be increased only to the extent that the team has room under the cap (and cannot increase the player's salary beyond the maximum salary). A renegotiation can only be used to provide a salary increase -- players can't take a "pay cut" in order to create more cap room for the team.

By renegotiate I mean what OKC did with Westbrook or Houston did with Harden over the summer

Thanks.  I didn't realize it could be renegotiated that way.

Re: Updated Celtics Salary Cap projection
« Reply #17 on: January 16, 2017, 10:09:46 AM »

Offline saltlover

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Thanks, that was a great read.

I had not realized until reading this that the changes in salaries affected negatively our cap space situation.

Any idea about our options in case we get nr1 pick?

As the number 1 pick looks almost certain to be a guard, the logical solution is to trade a guard or two.  If the team thinks that IT, Bradley, and Smart could all be in the long-term plans despite someone like Fultz being selected, then Rozier and Jackson could both be moved (for future picks) since there would be no developmental minutes for them, which frees up enough room to bring us back to a 7-9 max.  Alternatively if they think a Fultz would displace one of the top three guards, they could trade one of them.

The spike in pick salary is slightly frustrating given all the great picks we have coming up, but since this year's draft overlaps with the strength of our roster, a trade is logical anyway.

As for your other question about a trade being more desirable -- I think that's always Ainge's preference, because free agency is so fickle.  It certainly adds an extra element, because we'd no longer need to worry about cap space, but it's not imperative.

Re: Updated Celtics Salary Cap projection
« Reply #18 on: January 16, 2017, 10:38:41 AM »

Offline saltlover

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Thanks Salt. Great work as always.

To sign a max free agent, will we need to dump KO?
Or is keeping both while giving KO the money he wants ie $15 x 4 years for example an option because we can go over the cap to sign him?

Thanks.

We'd have to dump KO.  His cap hold before we re-signed him would take away the necessary space, and leave us with the lesser of the two figures I quote at the end.  We could go over the cap to give him more than the $7.7 million cap hold, but that would mean we either made a trade to clear cap space or did not sign someone to a max deal.

I have to believe Danny et al would evaluate most other options to freeing up the necessary space before simply letting Olynyk go to release a cap hold.

Yes, but the options are limited.  Say the free agent is Hayward or Griffin.   They'd need to move out about $7.7 million, which happens to be Olynyk's cap hold.  The only single player they could trade as an alternative is Bradley, and they'd have to take on zero salary in return.  Otherwise they'd have send out multiple players.  Maybe Bradley would be moved, depending on who the free agent is and who's drafted, but I don't think they're going to line up three deals to create enough space for a max guy.

And again, in my article I'm working from cases in which they wouldn't need to make a trade.  So that's kind of why we're talking about letting Olynyk walk.  Furthermore, we saw Ainge let Sully walk to make room for Horford -- he tried for a couple of days to find an alternative, but that's what ended up happening.  And Golden State let Barnes just walk away, and he's at least as good an asset as Olynyk.  It might not be Ainge's first choice, but it very likely would be his best choice if a max free agent wants to come to Boston.

Re: Updated Celtics Salary Cap projection
« Reply #19 on: January 16, 2017, 10:41:16 AM »

Offline saltlover

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Great job, SL.

I miss the days when I could really dig into the CBA. It's really interesting stuff.

Thanks very much, Roy.  The articles you used to write are some of the first ones that exposed me to how interesting the CBA was.

Re: Updated Celtics Salary Cap projection
« Reply #20 on: January 16, 2017, 10:54:39 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Thanks Salt. Great work as always.

To sign a max free agent, will we need to dump KO?
Or is keeping both while giving KO the money he wants ie $15 x 4 years for example an option because we can go over the cap to sign him?

Thanks.

We'd have to dump KO.  His cap hold before we re-signed him would take away the necessary space, and leave us with the lesser of the two figures I quote at the end.  We could go over the cap to give him more than the $7.7 million cap hold, but that would mean we either made a trade to clear cap space or did not sign someone to a max deal.

I have to believe Danny et al would evaluate most other options to freeing up the necessary space before simply letting Olynyk go to release a cap hold.

Yes, but the options are limited.  Say the free agent is Hayward or Griffin.   They'd need to move out about $7.7 million, which happens to be Olynyk's cap hold.  The only single player they could trade as an alternative is Bradley, and they'd have to take on zero salary in return.  Otherwise they'd have send out multiple players.  Maybe Bradley would be moved, depending on who the free agent is and who's drafted, but I don't think they're going to line up three deals to create enough space for a max guy.

And again, in my article I'm working from cases in which they wouldn't need to make a trade.  So that's kind of why we're talking about letting Olynyk walk.  Furthermore, we saw Ainge let Sully walk to make room for Horford -- he tried for a couple of days to find an alternative, but that's what ended up happening.  And Golden State let Barnes just walk away, and he's at least as good an asset as Olynyk.  It might not be Ainge's first choice, but it very likely would be his best choice if a max free agent wants to come to Boston.
If Boston signs Hayward, then Bradley or Crowder should absolutely be moved as there won't be enough minutes.
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Re: Updated Celtics Salary Cap projection
« Reply #21 on: January 16, 2017, 10:56:12 AM »

Offline mgent

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I wrote a FanPost for the SBNation portion of Celticsblog where I review the changes made to the CBA and where that leaves the Celtics.  The TL;DR version is that Boston should probably have just enough room (within $100K) to offer a max contract to someone like Hayward or Griffin, but it's very tight.

That said, I spent a good deal of time figuring it all out, so I hope you read it and ask questions/offer feedback. 

http://www.celticsblog.com/2017/1/15/14281028/celtics-salary-cap-update-new-cba-edition

We would be within 100k for a 9 year max including the cap hold for only having 11 players?
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Re: Updated Celtics Salary Cap projection
« Reply #22 on: January 16, 2017, 11:21:59 AM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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I wrote a FanPost for the SBNation portion of Celticsblog where I review the changes made to the CBA and where that leaves the Celtics.  The TL;DR version is that Boston should probably have just enough room (within $100K) to offer a max contract to someone like Hayward or Griffin, but it's very tight.

That said, I spent a good deal of time figuring it all out, so I hope you read it and ask questions/offer feedback. 

http://www.celticsblog.com/2017/1/15/14281028/celtics-salary-cap-update-new-cba-edition

Immediate reaction: super-clear, straightforward communication.  A rare skill you're showing here, laddie, on a notoriously opaque topic.

A Tommy-point goes without saying.

Re: Updated Celtics Salary Cap projection
« Reply #23 on: January 16, 2017, 11:42:50 AM »

Offline Phantom255x

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Thanks Salt. Great work as always.

To sign a max free agent, will we need to dump KO?
Or is keeping both while giving KO the money he wants ie $15 x 4 years for example an option because we can go over the cap to sign him?

Thanks.

We'd have to dump KO.  His cap hold before we re-signed him would take away the necessary space, and leave us with the lesser of the two figures I quote at the end.  We could go over the cap to give him more than the $7.7 million cap hold, but that would mean we either made a trade to clear cap space or did not sign someone to a max deal.

I have to believe Danny et al would evaluate most other options to freeing up the necessary space before simply letting Olynyk go to release a cap hold.

Yes, but the options are limited.  Say the free agent is Hayward or Griffin.   They'd need to move out about $7.7 million, which happens to be Olynyk's cap hold.  The only single player they could trade as an alternative is Bradley, and they'd have to take on zero salary in return.  Otherwise they'd have send out multiple players.  Maybe Bradley would be moved, depending on who the free agent is and who's drafted, but I don't think they're going to line up three deals to create enough space for a max guy.

And again, in my article I'm working from cases in which they wouldn't need to make a trade.  So that's kind of why we're talking about letting Olynyk walk.  Furthermore, we saw Ainge let Sully walk to make room for Horford -- he tried for a couple of days to find an alternative, but that's what ended up happening.  And Golden State let Barnes just walk away, and he's at least as good an asset as Olynyk.  It might not be Ainge's first choice, but it very likely would be his best choice if a max free agent wants to come to Boston.
If Boston signs Hayward, then Bradley or Crowder should absolutely be moved as there won't be enough minutes.

Man Crowder is going to feel even more disrespected if they sign Hayward and he gets sent packing  :laugh:
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Re: Updated Celtics Salary Cap projection
« Reply #24 on: January 16, 2017, 11:58:55 AM »

Offline saltlover

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I wrote a FanPost for the SBNation portion of Celticsblog where I review the changes made to the CBA and where that leaves the Celtics.  The TL;DR version is that Boston should probably have just enough room (within $100K) to offer a max contract to someone like Hayward or Griffin, but it's very tight.

That said, I spent a good deal of time figuring it all out, so I hope you read it and ask questions/offer feedback. 

http://www.celticsblog.com/2017/1/15/14281028/celtics-salary-cap-update-new-cba-edition

We would be within 100k for a 9 year max including the cap hold for only having 11 players?

Everyone give mgent a Tommy Point for catching my mistake in failing to include the minimum roster charge even after having talked about it.  I've updated the post, and it gets a little sadder, although I try to stay optimistic.

Re: Updated Celtics Salary Cap projection
« Reply #25 on: January 18, 2017, 07:15:01 AM »

Offline greece66

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@saltlover thank you for the thoughtful replies to my questions.

do you think that other teams that will go after FAs this summer will be similarly affected by the new CBA?

what im thinking ia the raise in salaries should affect all teams - tho it is more unfair to teams like the Cs which managed their book keeping very carefully.

what seems to be making our situation complicated is that we might get two top5 picks in 2017 and 18.

PS am i right to think that when yabusele and zizic come the 2016 rookie salary scale will apply?

Re: Updated Celtics Salary Cap projection
« Reply #26 on: January 18, 2017, 08:11:03 AM »

Offline saltlover

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@saltlover thank you for the thoughtful replies to my questions.

do you think that other teams that will go after FAs this summer will be similarly affected by the new CBA?

what im thinking ia the raise in salaries should affect all teams - tho it is more unfair to teams like the Cs which managed their book keeping very carefully.

what seems to be making our situation complicated is that we might get two top5 picks in 2017 and 18.

PS am i right to think that when yabusele and zizic come the 2016 rookie salary scale will apply?

Yabusele and Zizic will count for the scale the year they come over, so I'm assuming 2017.  They will collectively cost more than $1 million extra.

While many teams will be affected, the Celtics will be one of the most affected as we have a very high first rounder as well as two other first rounders.  The only teams that could be more affected are those that had hoped to have room for two max players.  Golden State will be in a little more trouble as well if Durant demands a max this season -- it was going to be difficult for him to fit anyway, since they need to use cap room, but his projected salary increased by $2.5 million, and they were already cutting it tight.

The increase in rookie scale contracts will affect us down the line as well.  Obviously we have another high pick next year, and additionally the salaries in the third year of a rookie deal now have a significant increase as well (although I'm a little unclear the exact amount of the increase as I've seen conflicting information.)  The good news for the Celtics is that, while they also made the rookie salary increases retroactive for players already on their rookie deals, those players won't have a change to their cap number, and the league pays the difference.  In other words, Jaylen Brown will see an increase of about 15% to next year's salary from what it was scheduled to be, but there won't be any change to the Celtics cap number from that increase. 

Re: Updated Celtics Salary Cap projection
« Reply #27 on: January 20, 2017, 06:42:12 AM »

Offline greece66

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thanks for the very detailed reply saltlover

it's a pity we are disproportionately affected

I do not know enough about how the new salaries were decided. If you have time, I have a couple more questions: was it the players who pushed for the salaries to go up? and if so, why did they do it for rookies too?