Updated Celtics Salary Cap projection

[saltlover]

I wrote a FanPost for the SBNation portion of Celticsblog where I review the changes made to the CBA and where that leaves the Celtics.  The TL;DR version is that Boston should probably have just enough room (within $100K) to offer a max contract to someone like Hayward or Griffin, but it's very tight.

That said, I spent a good deal of time figuring it all out, so I hope you read it and ask questions/offer feedback. 

http://www.celticsblog.com/2017/1/15/14281028/celtics-salary-cap-update-new-cba-edition

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Great write up and very helpful.

Help me out. If we rescinded Olynyk's cap hold, we could have enough space for a max free agent, but if we didn't, what would his RFA caphold be?

[mef730]

TP, thanks.

Can you explain to me the concept of a cap hold for Olynyk, even if he disappears in free agency?

Thanks,
Mike

[saltlover]

Olynyk has a cap hold of $7,735,035, which is 250% of his salary this season.

A cap hold exists as a placeholder salary for your own free agents.  The amount is typically based on a percentage of a players most recent salary, and is always higher than it, as it's assumed that the player would get a raise.  Teams are allowed to go over the salary cap to re-sign their own free agents, but they want to prevent teams from completely taking advantage of this rule, which would happen if the players were treated as having zero salary.

It remains on the books until one of two things occur: the team informs the league that they will not be exercising their right to go over the cap to re-sign the player (known as "renouncing"), or the player signs with a different team.

So with the case of Olynyk, on July 1st he will have a cap hold as described above.  The Celtics will also likely extend a qualifying offer, which is a one-year contract offer at a salary prescribed by the CBA (in Olynyk's case that amount is $4.279,021).  If the qualifying offer were greater than the 250% cap hold (which can sometimes happen for late 1st round or 2nd round players who pan out), the qualifying offer would replace the cap hold.

So while the Celtics and Olynyk are sorting through their options, Olynyk's hold would remain on the books.  If the Celtics agree to a deal with a max free agent, they would rescind Olynyk's qualifying offer and renounce his free agent rights, making him an unrestricted free agent.  Note that they cannot rescind his qualifying offer after July 15th -- another new change in the CBA.

Olynyk could of course throw a wrench into the Celtics plans and accept his qualifying offer before they rescinded it, but $4.3 million for Olynyk is a bargain, and he's certain to find something better in free agency.

[chambers]

Thanks Salt. Great work as always.

To sign a max free agent, will we need to dump KO?
Or is keeping both while giving KO the money he wants ie $15 x 4 years for example an option because we can go over the cap to sign him?

[saltlover]

Thanks Salt. Great work as always.

To sign a max free agent, will we need to dump KO?
Or is keeping both while giving KO the money he wants ie $15 x 4 years for example an option because we can go over the cap to sign him?

Thanks.

We'd have to dump KO.  His cap hold before we re-signed him would take away the necessary space, and leave us with the lesser of the two figures I quote at the end.  We could go over the cap to give him more than the $7.7 million cap hold, but that would mean we either made a trade to clear cap space or did not sign someone to a max deal.

[trickybilly]

salty sees you, Larry Coon. He's coming for you, Larry Coon.

[greece66]

Thanks, that was a great read.

I had not realized until reading this that the changes in salaries affected negatively our cap space situation.

Any idea about our options in case we get nr1 pick?

[greece66]

Also, do you think the new cap situation makes a trade more desirable for us?

[mctyson]

Thanks Salt. Great work as always.

To sign a max free agent, will we need to dump KO?
Or is keeping both while giving KO the money he wants ie $15 x 4 years for example an option because we can go over the cap to sign him?

Thanks.

We'd have to dump KO.  His cap hold before we re-signed him would take away the necessary space, and leave us with the lesser of the two figures I quote at the end.  We could go over the cap to give him more than the $7.7 million cap hold, but that would mean we either made a trade to clear cap space or did not sign someone to a max deal.

I have to believe Danny et al would evaluate most other options to freeing up the necessary space before simply letting Olynyk go to release a cap hold.

[TheSundanceKid]

TP, nice work. I commented on the FanPost saying this probably increases the probability of renegotiating ITs contract with the cap space.

It also brings up an interesting dilemma with KO. For a chance at Hayward or Griffin I can understand letting him go. But if it's looking likely at the deadline that we are unlikely to pursue them, do we commit to him or look to trade him for a cost controlled asset that may bite into our overall cap space for the summer but leave us with better long term options.

For example trading KO + filler for someone like Okafor or Hezonja. So we could still go after a max RFA if we wanted to or we could renegotiate ITs contract

[greece66]

TP, nice work. I commented on the FanPost saying this probably increases the probability of renegotiating ITs contract with the cap space.

It also brings up an interesting dilemma with KO. For a chance at Hayward or Griffin I can understand letting him go. But if it's looking likely at the deadline that we are unlikely to pursue them, do we commit to him or look to trade him for a cost controlled asset that may bite into our overall cap space for the summer but leave us with better long term options.

For example trading KO + filler for someone like Okafor or Hezonja. So we could still go after a max RFA if we wanted to or we could renegotiate ITs contract

Interesting points SundanceKid, I always enjoy your comments. This is saltlover´s thread, but I could not help asking whether you think KO with a filler will be enough to land Okafor or Hezonja? These players have more years in their rookie contracts, and KO's will be an expiring.

[TheSundanceKid]

TP, nice work. I commented on the FanPost saying this probably increases the probability of renegotiating ITs contract with the cap space.

It also brings up an interesting dilemma with KO. For a chance at Hayward or Griffin I can understand letting him go. But if it's looking likely at the deadline that we are unlikely to pursue them, do we commit to him or look to trade him for a cost controlled asset that may bite into our overall cap space for the summer but leave us with better long term options.

For example trading KO + filler for someone like Okafor or Hezonja. So we could still go after a max RFA if we wanted to or we could renegotiate ITs contract

Interesting points SundanceKid, I always enjoy your comments. This is saltlover´s thread, but I could not help asking whether you think KO with a filler will be enough to land Okafor or Hezonja? These players have more years in their rookie contracts, and KO's will be an expiring.

Thanks greece! I'm a bit of a fan of Okafor despite his troubles but there is little doubt that his value is rapidly decreasing. At some point last summer I was suggesting KO + Rozier for Okafor which at the time was not considered anywhere near enough for a former top 3 pick. To us C's fans, we knew that Rozier was on an upward trajectory so I thought in time the values might align. Fast forward to now and most C's fans call it an overpay! I still think I'd pull the trigger on that deal.
For Hezonja I think it depends completely on what Orlando would do before the trade deadline. In a vacuum I think they'd do it, although I don't think we would given our roster situation. If they ship out Biyombo or Vucevic I could see them being more interested. I know there are fans of Vucevic on the board so maybe we do a deal like Vucevic + Hezonja for KO, Zeller and Rozier, then use the remaining cap space to extend IT, I think we'd have ~$17m spare.

As saltlover's work shows, our path is very restrictive if we want max cap space for Hayward and co this summer. The new changes do raise the possibility of Ainge looking for another opportunistic move as opposed to conserving that space.

[JBcat]

TP, nice work. I commented on the FanPost saying this probably increases the probability of renegotiating ITs contract with the cap space.

It also brings up an interesting dilemma with KO. For a chance at Hayward or Griffin I can understand letting him go. But if it's looking likely at the deadline that we are unlikely to pursue them, do we commit to him or look to trade him for a cost controlled asset that may bite into our overall cap space for the summer but leave us with better long term options.

For example trading KO + filler for someone like Okafor or Hezonja. So we could still go after a max RFA if we wanted to or we could renegotiate ITs contract

TP Saltover.

You can't renegotiate contracts in the NBA like you can in the NFL.  So you couldn't do anything with Thomas's contract.

I think if we had an agreement to sign Hayward it would make Crowder expendable, and I think we could easily trade him, and say lesser contract if need be like Jackson so we could keep Kelly's cap hold to re-sign him.  That could work right?

If we sign Griffin I have no problem letting Kelly walk.  We would need a reliable 3rd big though.

[Roy H.]

Great job, SL.

I miss the days when I could really dig into the CBA. It's really interesting stuff.