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Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #435 on: January 21, 2017, 05:56:07 PM »

Online jpotter33

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Embiid and the Sixers have a better record than the Celtics this year and Noel has been a crucial part of that.  I don't know how you could see that and not think Noel's value has bounced back.
The Sixers are not in any way winning games because of what Noel is doing, they are in fact winning in spite of Noel.  He has had a positive +/- twice in 15 games, a +1 and +11.  During their current streak of winning 8 out of 10 games he is a staggering -52 (worst on team by far), how they are winning games when they are getting killed with him on the floor is crazy.  However with Embiid they are a +90 and have been squeaking out victories, 4 wins by 2 points or less. 

Noels ratings during the 10 game streak of which he played in all but the win in Milwaukee.

                     Off. Rat.      Def. Rat.     Net Rat.
Noel on floor     94.6           107.5         -12.9
Noel off floor    104.0           95.0          +9.0

How anyone can either watch the games or just look at the stats and think it is in any way because of Noel is beyond me.
oracle, I don't want to ridicule you, because I know that unfortunately some fans just share out of context advanced stats that they simply don't understand.  So let me give you some context to help you better understand why this post was complete off base.

Aside from an extremely small sample size of 8 minutes in which Noel and Embiid shared the court together and "outscored opponents by 33.1 points per 100 possessions", those two have exclusively played independently from one another.   Embiid is on a 28 minute restriction so Noel is literally serving as his back-up right now. 

So what these off court/on court stats are literally showing us that Philly has played worse when Embiid's backup is in the game.  And thus, has played better when Embiid has been in the game. Kind of common sense, right?  I mean, Embiid is statistically playing at a hall of fame level if he could do it for 36 minutes a night over 82 games.  Much has been written about how Philly is like -800 with him off the court and +50 with him playing over the course of the entire season.  They have played at a 56 win pace with him on the court and a below 20 win pace with him off.   All your stats really do is settle the two year argument fans have had on this forum about whether a superstar is worth tanking for.  Embiid is a budding superstar.  What he's doing in philly proves the ends justify the means when it comes to tanking.

But I'll give you a chance to redeem yourself.  Go ahead and pull up Noel's on-court advanced stats over the past 10 games and compare it to Embiid's off-court stats over the first 25 games of the season in which Noel wasn't even playing.   That should give you a clear idea of whether Philly is playing better in Embiid's off-court time when Noel fills in.  I'm honestly too lazy to look it up myself so perhaps this will blow up in my face.  But I'll await for your analysis on that and give you props if you prove Philly's bench was playing better without the inclusion of Noel.   Good luck.

Dude just stop. It's embarrassing. He hasn't been playing great lately. Put down the ringer article and watch some games

The fact that Lar would have the cajones to lecture anyone on posting out of context stats is actually one of the funniest things I've seen on this blog lol Talk about a lack of perspective coming from the guy who regularly misuses per-36 stats lol

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #436 on: January 21, 2017, 07:41:42 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Embiid and the Sixers have a better record than the Celtics this year and Noel has been a crucial part of that.  I don't know how you could see that and not think Noel's value has bounced back.
The Sixers are not in any way winning games because of what Noel is doing, they are in fact winning in spite of Noel.  He has had a positive +/- twice in 15 games, a +1 and +11.  During their current streak of winning 8 out of 10 games he is a staggering -52 (worst on team by far), how they are winning games when they are getting killed with him on the floor is crazy.  However with Embiid they are a +90 and have been squeaking out victories, 4 wins by 2 points or less. 

Noels ratings during the 10 game streak of which he played in all but the win in Milwaukee.

                     Off. Rat.      Def. Rat.     Net Rat.
Noel on floor     94.6           107.5         -12.9
Noel off floor    104.0           95.0          +9.0

How anyone can either watch the games or just look at the stats and think it is in any way because of Noel is beyond me.
oracle, I don't want to ridicule you, because I know that unfortunately some fans just share out of context advanced stats that they simply don't understand.  So let me give you some context to help you better understand why this post was complete off base.

Aside from an extremely small sample size of 8 minutes in which Noel and Embiid shared the court together and "outscored opponents by 33.1 points per 100 possessions", those two have exclusively played independently from one another.   Embiid is on a 28 minute restriction so Noel is literally serving as his back-up right now. 

So what these off court/on court stats are literally showing us that Philly has played worse when Embiid's backup is in the game.  And thus, has played better when Embiid has been in the game. Kind of common sense, right?  I mean, Embiid is statistically playing at a hall of fame level if he could do it for 36 minutes a night over 82 games.  Much has been written about how Philly is like -800 with him off the court and +50 with him playing over the course of the entire season.  They have played at a 56 win pace with him on the court and a below 20 win pace with him off.   All your stats really do is settle the two year argument fans have had on this forum about whether a superstar is worth tanking for.  Embiid is a budding superstar.  What he's doing in philly proves the ends justify the means when it comes to tanking.

But I'll give you a chance to redeem yourself.  Go ahead and pull up Noel's on-court advanced stats over the past 10 games and compare it to Embiid's off-court stats over the first 25 games of the season in which Noel wasn't even playing.   That should give you a clear idea of whether Philly is playing better in Embiid's off-court time when Noel fills in.  I'm honestly too lazy to look it up myself so perhaps this will blow up in my face.  But I'll await for your analysis on that and give you props if you prove Philly's bench was playing better without the inclusion of Noel.   Good luck.

Dude just stop. It's embarrassing. He hasn't been playing great lately. Put down the ringer article and watch some games

The fact that Lar would have the cajones to lecture anyone on posting out of context stats is actually one of the funniest things I've seen on this blog lol Talk about a lack of perspective coming from the guy who regularly misuses per-36 stats lol
i think a lot of folks here don't understand per-36.  If one starter is getting 43 minutes a night and another gets 32 minutes a night, it's fair to average out their minutes to get an understanding of their statistical impact.  This is why I argued that Thomas is better offensively than Iverson was.  Iverson only scored more points because he played more minutes and took more shots.  Thomas has consistently been more efficient.   People always counter this by finding some random scrub who has played 5 minutes all season and saying "herp derp this guy is amazing per minute stats".  That's dumb.  Per minute production is how we knew guys like Eric Bledsoe and James harden might flourish with starter minutes.  If there's enough of a sampling and it hasn't come exclusively against back-up talent, per minute stats are totally fine.  The fact is, per game stats are just as arbitrary as per minute stats.   You have just grown up seeing per game stats on baskeball cards your entire life and it became a standard... but why not per quarter stats or per week stats or per month stats ? Or why don't we just prioritize how many stats a player puts up in an entire season?  It's all arbitrary.   In a way, per minute or per possession production might be more useful than per game stats.   If you don't understand why, that's on you. 

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #437 on: January 21, 2017, 07:59:23 PM »

Online jpotter33

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Embiid and the Sixers have a better record than the Celtics this year and Noel has been a crucial part of that.  I don't know how you could see that and not think Noel's value has bounced back.
The Sixers are not in any way winning games because of what Noel is doing, they are in fact winning in spite of Noel.  He has had a positive +/- twice in 15 games, a +1 and +11.  During their current streak of winning 8 out of 10 games he is a staggering -52 (worst on team by far), how they are winning games when they are getting killed with him on the floor is crazy.  However with Embiid they are a +90 and have been squeaking out victories, 4 wins by 2 points or less. 

Noels ratings during the 10 game streak of which he played in all but the win in Milwaukee.

                     Off. Rat.      Def. Rat.     Net Rat.
Noel on floor     94.6           107.5         -12.9
Noel off floor    104.0           95.0          +9.0

How anyone can either watch the games or just look at the stats and think it is in any way because of Noel is beyond me.
oracle, I don't want to ridicule you, because I know that unfortunately some fans just share out of context advanced stats that they simply don't understand.  So let me give you some context to help you better understand why this post was complete off base.

Aside from an extremely small sample size of 8 minutes in which Noel and Embiid shared the court together and "outscored opponents by 33.1 points per 100 possessions", those two have exclusively played independently from one another.   Embiid is on a 28 minute restriction so Noel is literally serving as his back-up right now. 

So what these off court/on court stats are literally showing us that Philly has played worse when Embiid's backup is in the game.  And thus, has played better when Embiid has been in the game. Kind of common sense, right?  I mean, Embiid is statistically playing at a hall of fame level if he could do it for 36 minutes a night over 82 games.  Much has been written about how Philly is like -800 with him off the court and +50 with him playing over the course of the entire season.  They have played at a 56 win pace with him on the court and a below 20 win pace with him off.   All your stats really do is settle the two year argument fans have had on this forum about whether a superstar is worth tanking for.  Embiid is a budding superstar.  What he's doing in philly proves the ends justify the means when it comes to tanking.

But I'll give you a chance to redeem yourself.  Go ahead and pull up Noel's on-court advanced stats over the past 10 games and compare it to Embiid's off-court stats over the first 25 games of the season in which Noel wasn't even playing.   That should give you a clear idea of whether Philly is playing better in Embiid's off-court time when Noel fills in.  I'm honestly too lazy to look it up myself so perhaps this will blow up in my face.  But I'll await for your analysis on that and give you props if you prove Philly's bench was playing better without the inclusion of Noel.   Good luck.

Dude just stop. It's embarrassing. He hasn't been playing great lately. Put down the ringer article and watch some games

The fact that Lar would have the cajones to lecture anyone on posting out of context stats is actually one of the funniest things I've seen on this blog lol Talk about a lack of perspective coming from the guy who regularly misuses per-36 stats lol
i think a lot of folks here don't understand per-36.  If one starter is getting 43 minutes a night and another gets 32 minutes a night, it's fair to average out their minutes to get an understanding of their statistical impact. 

Yeah, CelticsClay had to call you out on this and explain this to you several months back because you kept posting completely out of context numbers for Embiid when he was playing like 15 minutes a game...

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #438 on: January 21, 2017, 08:25:44 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Noel is having another really mediocre game. I wonder if the injuries to his legs have robbed him of explosiveness. For a guy that used to average 2.5 blocks a game I don't think he has even had one in a couple of weeks. I was unable to watch tonight but I am starting to switch into the camp of not wanting the Celtics to get him on a higher end salary. The idea that he is raising his value is becoming comical

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #439 on: January 21, 2017, 09:05:21 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Noel is having another really mediocre game. I wonder if the injuries to his legs have robbed him of explosiveness. For a guy that used to average 2.5 blocks a game I don't think he has even had one in a couple of weeks. I was unable to watch tonight but I am starting to switch into the camp of not wanting the Celtics to get him on a higher end salary. The idea that he is raising his value is becoming comical
Before the Sixers started their recent win streak, the LibertyBallers games threads were rabid anti-Okafor and Noel could do no wrong.  Now that they've started winning they've become a lot more critical of Noel's play.  I'm definitely not in the Noel camp any longer. 

Personally I'd rather have Okafor.  I think he'll look significantly better offensively when Simmons gets back.   In 26 minutes of tonight's game, Okafor has only gotten 6 shots.  Hard for an offensive oriented center to be successful with the Sixers poor guard play. 

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #440 on: January 22, 2017, 06:06:36 AM »

Offline The Oracle

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Embiid and the Sixers have a better record than the Celtics this year and Noel has been a crucial part of that.  I don't know how you could see that and not think Noel's value has bounced back.
The Sixers are not in any way winning games because of what Noel is doing, they are in fact winning in spite of Noel.  He has had a positive +/- twice in 15 games, a +1 and +11.  During their current streak of winning 8 out of 10 games he is a staggering -52 (worst on team by far), how they are winning games when they are getting killed with him on the floor is crazy.  However with Embiid they are a +90 and have been squeaking out victories, 4 wins by 2 points or less. 

Noels ratings during the 10 game streak of which he played in all but the win in Milwaukee.

                     Off. Rat.      Def. Rat.     Net Rat.
Noel on floor     94.6           107.5         -12.9
Noel off floor    104.0           95.0          +9.0

How anyone can either watch the games or just look at the stats and think it is in any way because of Noel is beyond me.
oracle, I don't want to ridicule you, because I know that unfortunately some fans just share out of context advanced stats that they simply don't understand.  So let me give you some context to help you better understand why this post was complete off base.

Aside from an extremely small sample size of 8 minutes in which Noel and Embiid shared the court together and "outscored opponents by 33.1 points per 100 possessions", those two have exclusively played independently from one another.   Embiid is on a 28 minute restriction so Noel is literally serving as his back-up right now. 

So what these off court/on court stats are literally showing us that Philly has played worse when Embiid's backup is in the game.  And thus, has played better when Embiid has been in the game. Kind of common sense, right?  I mean, Embiid is statistically playing at a hall of fame level if he could do it for 36 minutes a night over 82 games.  Much has been written about how Philly is like -800 with him off the court and +50 with him playing over the course of the entire season.  They have played at a 56 win pace with him on the court and a below 20 win pace with him off.   All your stats really do is settle the two year argument fans have had on this forum about whether a superstar is worth tanking for.  Embiid is a budding superstar.  What he's doing in philly proves the ends justify the means when it comes to tanking.

But I'll give you a chance to redeem yourself.  Go ahead and pull up Noel's on-court advanced stats over the past 10 games and compare it to Embiid's off-court stats over the first 25 games of the season in which Noel wasn't even playing.   That should give you a clear idea of whether Philly is playing better in Embiid's off-court time when Noel fills in.  I'm honestly too lazy to look it up myself so perhaps this will blow up in my face.  But I'll await for your analysis on that and give you props if you prove Philly's bench was playing better without the inclusion of Noel.   Good luck.

Embiid's off court stats through Dec. 10th, Noel returned on the 11th.

Embiid off court Off. Rat. 95.7, Def. Rat. 109.4, Net Rat. -13.7

Noel's on court stats for the last 10 games were already posted above but here they are again.

Noel on court  Off. Rat. 94.6, Def. Rat. 107.5, Net Rat. -12.9

The Sixers have been just as dreadfully awful with or without Noel anytime Embiid is not on the floor.  Noel just doesn't move the needle, Okafor moves the needle in the wrong direction, the C's should have zero interest in either for a multitude of reasons.  Embiid always had the obvious talent it was only ever a question of health for him...and still is.

Edit: If you add in last nights game to Noel's numbers they drop even more.

Off. Rat. 93.2,  Def. Rat. 107.9, Net Rat. -14.6 during the win streak over the course of the last 11 games.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2017, 06:28:41 AM by The Oracle »

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #441 on: January 22, 2017, 07:54:46 AM »

Offline colincb

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Embiid and the Sixers have a better record than the Celtics this year and Noel has been a crucial part of that.  I don't know how you could see that and not think Noel's value has bounced back.
The Sixers are not in any way winning games because of what Noel is doing, they are in fact winning in spite of Noel.  He has had a positive +/- twice in 15 games, a +1 and +11.  During their current streak of winning 8 out of 10 games he is a staggering -52 (worst on team by far), how they are winning games when they are getting killed with him on the floor is crazy.  However with Embiid they are a +90 and have been squeaking out victories, 4 wins by 2 points or less. 

Noels ratings during the 10 game streak of which he played in all but the win in Milwaukee.

                     Off. Rat.      Def. Rat.     Net Rat.
Noel on floor     94.6           107.5         -12.9
Noel off floor    104.0           95.0          +9.0

How anyone can either watch the games or just look at the stats and think it is in any way because of Noel is beyond me.
oracle, I don't want to ridicule you, because I know that unfortunately some fans just share out of context advanced stats that they simply don't understand.  So let me give you some context to help you better understand why this post was complete off base.

Aside from an extremely small sample size of 8 minutes in which Noel and Embiid shared the court together and "outscored opponents by 33.1 points per 100 possessions", those two have exclusively played independently from one another.   Embiid is on a 28 minute restriction so Noel is literally serving as his back-up right now. 

So what these off court/on court stats are literally showing us that Philly has played worse when Embiid's backup is in the game.  And thus, has played better when Embiid has been in the game. Kind of common sense, right?  I mean, Embiid is statistically playing at a hall of fame level if he could do it for 36 minutes a night over 82 games.  Much has been written about how Philly is like -800 with him off the court and +50 with him playing over the course of the entire season.  They have played at a 56 win pace with him on the court and a below 20 win pace with him off.   All your stats really do is settle the two year argument fans have had on this forum about whether a superstar is worth tanking for.  Embiid is a budding superstar.  What he's doing in philly proves the ends justify the means when it comes to tanking.

But I'll give you a chance to redeem yourself.  Go ahead and pull up Noel's on-court advanced stats over the past 10 games and compare it to Embiid's off-court stats over the first 25 games of the season in which Noel wasn't even playing.   That should give you a clear idea of whether Philly is playing better in Embiid's off-court time when Noel fills in.  I'm honestly too lazy to look it up myself so perhaps this will blow up in my face.  But I'll await for your analysis on that and give you props if you prove Philly's bench was playing better without the inclusion of Noel.   Good luck.

Embiid's off court stats through Dec. 10th, Noel returned on the 11th.

Embiid off court Off. Rat. 95.7, Def. Rat. 109.4, Net Rat. -13.7

Noel's on court stats for the last 10 games were already posted above but here they are again.

Noel on court  Off. Rat. 94.6, Def. Rat. 107.5, Net Rat. -12.9

The Sixers have been just as dreadfully awful with or without Noel anytime Embiid is not on the floor.  Noel just doesn't move the needle, Okafor moves the needle in the wrong direction, the C's should have zero interest in either for a multitude of reasons.  Embiid always had the obvious talent it was only ever a question of health for him...and still is.

Edit: If you add in last nights game to Noel's numbers they drop even more.

Off. Rat. 93.2,  Def. Rat. 107.9, Net Rat. -14.6 during the win streak over the course of the last 11 games.

TP. All that's going on with Philly now is an attempt to showcase Noel before the trade deadline hoping for an offer to recoup sunk costs.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #442 on: January 22, 2017, 08:19:45 AM »

Offline TrueFan

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Noel is having another really mediocre game. I wonder if the injuries to his legs have robbed him of explosiveness. For a guy that used to average 2.5 blocks a game I don't think he has even had one in a couple of weeks. I was unable to watch tonight but I am starting to switch into the camp of not wanting the Celtics to get him on a higher end salary. The idea that he is raising his value is becoming comical
Before the Sixers started their recent win streak, the LibertyBallers games threads were rabid anti-Okafor and Noel could do no wrong.  Now that they've started winning they've become a lot more critical of Noel's play.  I'm definitely not in the Noel camp any longer. 

Personally I'd rather have Okafor.  I think he'll look significantly better offensively when Simmons gets back.   In 26 minutes of tonight's game, Okafor has only gotten 6 shots.  Hard for an offensive oriented center to be successful with the Sixers poor guard play.
The biggest problem with Okafor is he will make our pick and roll defense worse then it already is.

With that said I would still offer up Roz or Smart if we land Fultz or Ball for him. As much as I hate trading away a player I like we just won't have enough room on this team for 5 guards deserving of minutes. Okafor would be a nice return on either.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #443 on: January 22, 2017, 04:29:45 PM »

Offline RAAAAAAAANDY

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Noel is having another really mediocre game. I wonder if the injuries to his legs have robbed him of explosiveness. For a guy that used to average 2.5 blocks a game I don't think he has even had one in a couple of weeks. I was unable to watch tonight but I am starting to switch into the camp of not wanting the Celtics to get him on a higher end salary. The idea that he is raising his value is becoming comical
Before the Sixers started their recent win streak, the LibertyBallers games threads were rabid anti-Okafor and Noel could do no wrong.  Now that they've started winning they've become a lot more critical of Noel's play.  I'm definitely not in the Noel camp any longer. 

Personally I'd rather have Okafor.  I think he'll look significantly better offensively when Simmons gets back.   In 26 minutes of tonight's game, Okafor has only gotten 6 shots.  Hard for an offensive oriented center to be successful with the Sixers poor guard play.
The biggest problem with Okafor is he will make our pick and roll defense worse then it already is.

With that said I would still offer up Roz or Smart if we land Fultz or Ball for him. As much as I hate trading away a player I like we just won't have enough room on this team for 5 guards deserving of minutes. Okafor would be a nice return on either.

From a Sixers perspective...

I'm hungry, you can have Okafor if you order me a pizza. He's terrible, you can't play a guy with his flaws in a playoff game and expect to survive. Can't board, can't defend and craters offensive movement when he initiates his offense.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #444 on: January 22, 2017, 04:30:54 PM »

Offline RAAAAAAAANDY

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Noel is having another really mediocre game. I wonder if the injuries to his legs have robbed him of explosiveness. For a guy that used to average 2.5 blocks a game I don't think he has even had one in a couple of weeks. I was unable to watch tonight but I am starting to switch into the camp of not wanting the Celtics to get him on a higher end salary. The idea that he is raising his value is becoming comical

I don't really have a great way to describe it, just doesn't look right. Tentative maybe?

He did not play well.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #445 on: January 23, 2017, 06:15:20 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Noel is having another really mediocre game. I wonder if the injuries to his legs have robbed him of explosiveness. For a guy that used to average 2.5 blocks a game I don't think he has even had one in a couple of weeks. I was unable to watch tonight but I am starting to switch into the camp of not wanting the Celtics to get him on a higher end salary. The idea that he is raising his value is becoming comical

I don't really have a great way to describe it, just doesn't look right. Tentative maybe?

He did not play well.

Did he really have a sprained ankle again or was this just a phantom injury designed to get Okafor a "showcase" game? He doesn't even have a block in 6 of the last 7 games, has not scored more than 6 points in 2 weeks and has put up rebounding totals of 3, 3 and 2 around his two good games with 9 and 12 boards. Perhaps he is injured? Perhaps he is disinterested?

If this continues for another month or so I will have to rethink my belief that Dallas or Brooklyn would offer him a giant contract. There at least has to be a glimmer that he can be more in games. Perhaps he is trying to tank his way to Boston.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #446 on: January 23, 2017, 07:05:59 PM »

Offline RAAAAAAAANDY

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I highly doubt a guy in a contract year is tanking his own value.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #447 on: January 23, 2017, 07:20:13 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I highly doubt a guy in a contract year is tanking his own value.

Yea that part was just a joke.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #448 on: January 24, 2017, 05:34:00 AM »

Offline colincb

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Steve Kyler's weekly Monday chat from yesterday, 1/23/17:

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/chat/nba-rumors-chat-with-steve-kyler-12317/


Quote
Mark: What’s Philly’s asking price in a Nerlens Noel trade? Any teams close to getting a deal done here?

Steve Kyler: I continue to hear that teams are not overly interested in giving up an asset for the privilege to pay Nerlens in July. Maybe that changes, but this story has been the same all year. I spoke with people near that situation yesterday and there is nothing on deck with Nerlens.

and

Quote
Joe: Sixers still talking to teams? Also, who do you see likely to be moved first, out of Noel & Okafor?

Steve Kyler:  Yes, Sixers still active in the market. They are not close to anything from what I understand. I think in the end both Noel and Okafor are moved. The urgency is to move Noel. If it gets to the summer they lose the ability get something for him. They have more time on Okafor.

Pretty clear to me that Sixers are showcasing Noel now to get anything they can for him. Still think POR does something because they're pretty desperate, but it would likely be for picks since they don't have much talent outside of their guards and Sixers really need talent more than picks.

Can't see Danny spending for a rental myself with the chance to lose him. Better bet is that Danny risks nothing now and takes a flyer on him as an RFA if Danny has any interest in Noel (and he may well not). Also think Sixers will move on from Okafor too soon enough.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #449 on: January 24, 2017, 10:16:12 AM »

Offline bogg

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Yea, this isn't that hard - teams already knew Noel could give you good defense, so a couple weeks of decent play off the bench isn't going to move the needle on his trade value. He'd need to show an entirely new skillset, like the ability to step outside and hit threes or running the fast break off a rebound, to make teams seriously reconsider what they're willing to do. Teams will take a swing on signing hum outright before you'll see Phoenix put one of those Miami picks on the table.