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Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #420 on: January 21, 2017, 05:13:10 AM »

Offline The Oracle

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Embiid and the Sixers have a better record than the Celtics this year and Noel has been a crucial part of that.  I don't know how you could see that and not think Noel's value has bounced back.
The Sixers are not in any way winning games because of what Noel is doing, they are in fact winning in spite of Noel.  He has had a positive +/- twice in 15 games, a +1 and +11.  During their current streak of winning 8 out of 10 games he is a staggering -52 (worst on team by far), how they are winning games when they are getting killed with him on the floor is crazy.  However with Embiid they are a +90 and have been squeaking out victories, 4 wins by 2 points or less. 

Noels ratings during the 10 game streak of which he played in all but the win in Milwaukee.

                     Off. Rat.      Def. Rat.     Net Rat.
Noel on floor     94.6           107.5         -12.9
Noel off floor    104.0           95.0          +9.0

How anyone can either watch the games or just look at the stats and think it is in any way because of Noel is beyond me.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #421 on: January 21, 2017, 07:13:46 AM »

Offline cltc5

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Sixers are winning now and. I longer need to be desperate so they can ask for more if they want because they don't have a need anywhere anymore.  Also we coulda had Covington in a trade that woulda brought Noel here to.  So thanks for sitting on your hands and doing nothing again ainge ::)

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #422 on: January 21, 2017, 08:32:52 AM »

Offline celticsclay

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Embiid and the Sixers have a better record than the Celtics this year and Noel has been a crucial part of that.  I don't know how you could see that and not think Noel's value has bounced back.
The Sixers are not in any way winning games because of what Noel is doing, they are in fact winning in spite of Noel.  He has had a positive +/- twice in 15 games, a +1 and +11.  During their current streak of winning 8 out of 10 games he is a staggering -52 (worst on team by far), how they are winning games when they are getting killed with him on the floor is crazy.  However with Embiid they are a +90 and have been squeaking out victories, 4 wins by 2 points or less. 

Noels ratings during the 10 game streak of which he played in all but the win in Milwaukee.

                     Off. Rat.      Def. Rat.     Net Rat.
Noel on floor     94.6           107.5         -12.9
Noel off floor    104.0           95.0          +9.0

How anyone can either watch the games or just look at the stats and think it is in any way because of Noel is beyond me.

Lol got to give you a tp for this one. Lb was using the "shoot, ask questions later" strategy here and got caught with his pants down. Very well written.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #423 on: January 21, 2017, 01:12:58 PM »

Offline bogg

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Embiid and the Sixers have a better record than the Celtics this year and Noel has been a crucial part of that.  I don't know how you could see that and not think Noel's value has bounced back.
The Sixers are not in any way winning games because of what Noel is doing, they are in fact winning in spite of Noel.  He has had a positive +/- twice in 15 games, a +1 and +11.  During their current streak of winning 8 out of 10 games he is a staggering -52 (worst on team by far), how they are winning games when they are getting killed with him on the floor is crazy.  However with Embiid they are a +90 and have been squeaking out victories, 4 wins by 2 points or less. 

Noels ratings during the 10 game streak of which he played in all but the win in Milwaukee.

                     Off. Rat.      Def. Rat.     Net Rat.
Noel on floor     94.6           107.5         -12.9
Noel off floor    104.0           95.0          +9.0

How anyone can either watch the games or just look at the stats and think it is in any way because of Noel is beyond me.

Yea, Philly's been winning lately because they finally ditched the two-big lineups and put real forwards around Embiid, and Embiid is very good. If anything, the recent win streak is evidence that any attempt at finding Noel minutes alongside Embiid is foolish except in very unusual circumstances. The only people on that roster who should ever play power forward minutes are Covington, Ersan, Saric, and (when he gets healthy) Simmons. Noel or Okafor or whomever can have the backup center minutes when Embiid is on the bench, but they shouldn't share court space.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #424 on: January 21, 2017, 01:27:25 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Embiid and the Sixers have a better record than the Celtics this year and Noel has been a crucial part of that.  I don't know how you could see that and not think Noel's value has bounced back.
The Sixers are not in any way winning games because of what Noel is doing, they are in fact winning in spite of Noel.  He has had a positive +/- twice in 15 games, a +1 and +11.  During their current streak of winning 8 out of 10 games he is a staggering -52 (worst on team by far), how they are winning games when they are getting killed with him on the floor is crazy.  However with Embiid they are a +90 and have been squeaking out victories, 4 wins by 2 points or less. 

Noels ratings during the 10 game streak of which he played in all but the win in Milwaukee.

                     Off. Rat.      Def. Rat.     Net Rat.
Noel on floor     94.6           107.5         -12.9
Noel off floor    104.0           95.0          +9.0

How anyone can either watch the games or just look at the stats and think it is in any way because of Noel is beyond me.
I think Noel's impact is being overstated too.  However, here's a bit of a counter to the poor Def Rtg.  Noel has been playing off the bench with some bad defenders.  Even so he has the 2nd best def fg% at the rim just behind Embiid.  Noel certainly helped in yesterday's game when Embiid left with his injury scare.   
http://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-lt6/#!?CF=GP*GE*15&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=C&sort=LT_06_PCT&dir=-1
 

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #425 on: January 21, 2017, 01:39:11 PM »

Offline bogg

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Embiid and the Sixers have a better record than the Celtics this year and Noel has been a crucial part of that.  I don't know how you could see that and not think Noel's value has bounced back.
The Sixers are not in any way winning games because of what Noel is doing, they are in fact winning in spite of Noel.  He has had a positive +/- twice in 15 games, a +1 and +11.  During their current streak of winning 8 out of 10 games he is a staggering -52 (worst on team by far), how they are winning games when they are getting killed with him on the floor is crazy.  However with Embiid they are a +90 and have been squeaking out victories, 4 wins by 2 points or less. 

Noels ratings during the 10 game streak of which he played in all but the win in Milwaukee.

                     Off. Rat.      Def. Rat.     Net Rat.
Noel on floor     94.6           107.5         -12.9
Noel off floor    104.0           95.0          +9.0

How anyone can either watch the games or just look at the stats and think it is in any way because of Noel is beyond me.
I think Noel's impact is being overstated too.  However, here's a bit of a counter to the poor Def Rtg.  Noel has been playing off the bench with some bad defenders.  Even so he has the 2nd best def fg% at the rim just behind Embiid.  Noel certainly helped in yesterday's game when Embiid left with his injury scare.   
http://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-lt6/#!?CF=GP*GE*15&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=C&sort=LT_06_PCT&dir=-1

Yea, I mean, I don't think he's a bad player, it's just that Embiid is clearly better and the team also clearly plays better when they pair Embiid with true forwards instead of another big, and so Noel's utility in Philly is more limited than it would be somewhere else. Sometimes it's just that simple.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #426 on: January 21, 2017, 01:58:29 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Lol...  almost all of Noel's minutes have come with the best big man in the Eastern conference sitting on the bench.  Obviously Philly is better when the phenom is on the court.  They are something like +100 this season with Embiid on the court and -1,000,000 when he sits.  Still, as they said in the ringer article, it's not a coincidence that Philly started winning with Noel's return.  He's been terrific off the bench.  With Embiid only playing 28 minutes per night, that left 20 minutes with weak interior defense.  With Noel getting minutes they now have 48 minutes of elite rim protection.   Noel held down the fort against Portland last night when Embiid had 22 minutes due to a hyperextended knee.  Philly was able to win again.

Noel and Embiid have only shared the court for 8 minutes (in which they have been remarkably good). Right now Noel is serving as Embiid's backup... which might be a great long-term role for him. 20ish minutes off the bench relieving Embiid and maybe sharing a handful nightly.  Obviously if you are looking at Noel's on court/off court you are looking at the inverse of Embiid's on court/off court.  It's like looking at the on court/off court of LeBron's backup and commenting that the team plays better when the backup is out of the game ... that's dumb.

Here's what they said in the ringer:

Quote
What’s better than having one young defensive savant? Uh, two? Since returning from surgery that kept him out of the Sixers’ first 23 games, Nerlens Noel has been as disruptive as ever. The third-year center is holding opponents to 47.8 percent at the rim and posting steal and deflection rates that would top the league if he had enough minutes to qualify for the leaderboard. That’s trippy — especially when you realize he’s younger than Embiid. And for those concerned about Noel’s offense, he’s averaging 17.2 points per 36 minutes on a mondo-efficient 59.8 true shooting percentage.
It’s not a coincidence that the Sixers’ winning streak was ignited when Noel replaced Jahlil Okafor as backup center in the final days of 2016. With more minutes of elite paint protection, Philly has allowed the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage from both 0–5 feet and 5–9 feet since December 30. This is the “violence at the rim” that Sam Hinkie spoke so reverently of.

In Philly's last 10 games they have been 2nd in league for blocks, 4th in league for defensive rebounds, and #1 for Defensive Efficiency.  If you don't think that has something to do with having at least one of Embiid or Noel on the court at all times, you don't understand baskeball.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2017, 02:22:40 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #427 on: January 21, 2017, 02:41:51 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Lol...  almost all of Noel's minutes have come with the best big man in the Eastern conference sitting on the bench.  Obviously Philly is better when the phenom is on the court.  They are something like +100 this season with Embiid on the court and -1,000,000 when he sits.  Still, as they said in the ringer article, it's not a coincidence that Philly started winning with Noel's return.  He's been terrific off the bench.  With Embiid only playing 28 minutes per night, that left 20 minutes with weak interior defense.  With Noel getting minutes they now have 48 minutes of elite rim protection.   Noel held down the fort against Portland last night when Embiid had 22 minutes due to a hyperextended knee.  Philly was able to win again.

Noel and Embiid have only shared the court for 8 minutes (in which they have been remarkably good). Right now Noel is serving as Embiid's backup... which might be a great long-term role for him. 20ish minutes off the bench relieving Embiid and maybe sharing a handful nightly.  Obviously if you are looking at Noel's on court/off court you are looking at the inverse of Embiid's on court/off court.  It's like looking at the on court/off court of LeBron's backup and commenting that the team plays better when the backup is out of the game ... that's dumb.

Here's what they said in the ringer:

Quote
What’s better than having one young defensive savant? Uh, two? Since returning from surgery that kept him out of the Sixers’ first 23 games, Nerlens Noel has been as disruptive as ever. The third-year center is holding opponents to 47.8 percent at the rim and posting steal and deflection rates that would top the league if he had enough minutes to qualify for the leaderboard. That’s trippy — especially when you realize he’s younger than Embiid. And for those concerned about Noel’s offense, he’s averaging 17.2 points per 36 minutes on a mondo-efficient 59.8 true shooting percentage.
It’s not a coincidence that the Sixers’ winning streak was ignited when Noel replaced Jahlil Okafor as backup center in the final days of 2016. With more minutes of elite paint protection, Philly has allowed the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage from both 0–5 feet and 5–9 feet since December 30. This is the “violence at the rim” that Sam Hinkie spoke so reverently of.

In Philly's last 10 games they have been 2nd in league for blocks, 4th in league for defensive rebounds, and #1 for Defensive Efficiency.  If you don't think that has something to do with having at least one of Embiid or Noel on the court at all times, you don't understand baskeball.
you should read what people write with the stats and not just regurgitate the same ringer article blindly. As I have said a bunch of times I really like Noel and would like him on the Celtics for the right deal. However he has not been good recently, especially the last few weeks. Don't just ignore the valid points on this because you falsely claimed Noel's value has gone up without actually watching him.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #428 on: January 21, 2017, 02:58:16 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Lol...  almost all of Noel's minutes have come with the best big man in the Eastern conference sitting on the bench.  Obviously Philly is better when the phenom is on the court.  They are something like +100 this season with Embiid on the court and -1,000,000 when he sits.  Still, as they said in the ringer article, it's not a coincidence that Philly started winning with Noel's return.  He's been terrific off the bench.  With Embiid only playing 28 minutes per night, that left 20 minutes with weak interior defense.  With Noel getting minutes they now have 48 minutes of elite rim protection.   Noel held down the fort against Portland last night when Embiid had 22 minutes due to a hyperextended knee.  Philly was able to win again.

Noel and Embiid have only shared the court for 8 minutes (in which they have been remarkably good). Right now Noel is serving as Embiid's backup... which might be a great long-term role for him. 20ish minutes off the bench relieving Embiid and maybe sharing a handful nightly.  Obviously if you are looking at Noel's on court/off court you are looking at the inverse of Embiid's on court/off court.  It's like looking at the on court/off court of LeBron's backup and commenting that the team plays better when the backup is out of the game ... that's dumb.

Here's what they said in the ringer:

Quote
What’s better than having one young defensive savant? Uh, two? Since returning from surgery that kept him out of the Sixers’ first 23 games, Nerlens Noel has been as disruptive as ever. The third-year center is holding opponents to 47.8 percent at the rim and posting steal and deflection rates that would top the league if he had enough minutes to qualify for the leaderboard. That’s trippy — especially when you realize he’s younger than Embiid. And for those concerned about Noel’s offense, he’s averaging 17.2 points per 36 minutes on a mondo-efficient 59.8 true shooting percentage.
It’s not a coincidence that the Sixers’ winning streak was ignited when Noel replaced Jahlil Okafor as backup center in the final days of 2016. With more minutes of elite paint protection, Philly has allowed the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage from both 0–5 feet and 5–9 feet since December 30. This is the “violence at the rim” that Sam Hinkie spoke so reverently of.

In Philly's last 10 games they have been 2nd in league for blocks, 4th in league for defensive rebounds, and #1 for Defensive Efficiency.  If you don't think that has something to do with having at least one of Embiid or Noel on the court at all times, you don't understand baskeball.
you should read what people write with the stats and not just regurgitate the same ringer article blindly. As I have said a bunch of times I really like Noel and would like him on the Celtics for the right deal. However he has not been good recently, especially the last few weeks. Don't just ignore the valid points on this because you falsely claimed Noel's value has gone up without actually watching him.
hes been huge for them.   Nobody has said anything to dispute it in this thread.  They pointed out that the team is better with Embiid on the court... yeah... nobody is disputing that.   Embiid is a living legend.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #429 on: January 21, 2017, 03:01:30 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.
How does having an expensive backup center hamper you from winning games?  Look at all the money the Cavs have spent on their starting lineup and backups and a lot of those signings were on a much lower cap.  The Clippers have Crawford, Redick, and Rivers making over 31 million a year (Wesley Johnson is another 6 million) plus Paul, Griffin, and Jordan all over 20.  If the Sixers believe Noel is the guy they want long term backing up Embiid, and they feel whatever contract he is offered is worth it, then they absolutely should match and shouldn't have any issue doing so.  And the thin is, the Sixers have at least one full season after this one before they have to even consider making a move of one of their back-up centers.  They aren't going to pay all 3, but there is certainly no reason they can't pay 2.
i agree.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #430 on: January 21, 2017, 03:05:16 PM »

Offline Granath

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Lol...  almost all of Noel's minutes have come with the best big man in the Eastern conference sitting on the bench.  Obviously Philly is better when the phenom is on the court.  They are something like +100 this season with Embiid on the court and -1,000,000 when he sits.  Still, as they said in the ringer article, it's not a coincidence that Philly started winning with Noel's return.  He's been terrific off the bench.  With Embiid only playing 28 minutes per night, that left 20 minutes with weak interior defense.  With Noel getting minutes they now have 48 minutes of elite rim protection.   Noel held down the fort against Portland last night when Embiid had 22 minutes due to a hyperextended knee.  Philly was able to win again.

Noel and Embiid have only shared the court for 8 minutes (in which they have been remarkably good). Right now Noel is serving as Embiid's backup... which might be a great long-term role for him. 20ish minutes off the bench relieving Embiid and maybe sharing a handful nightly.  Obviously if you are looking at Noel's on court/off court you are looking at the inverse of Embiid's on court/off court.  It's like looking at the on court/off court of LeBron's backup and commenting that the team plays better when the backup is out of the game ... that's dumb.

Here's what they said in the ringer:

Quote
What’s better than having one young defensive savant? Uh, two? Since returning from surgery that kept him out of the Sixers’ first 23 games, Nerlens Noel has been as disruptive as ever. The third-year center is holding opponents to 47.8 percent at the rim and posting steal and deflection rates that would top the league if he had enough minutes to qualify for the leaderboard. That’s trippy — especially when you realize he’s younger than Embiid. And for those concerned about Noel’s offense, he’s averaging 17.2 points per 36 minutes on a mondo-efficient 59.8 true shooting percentage.
It’s not a coincidence that the Sixers’ winning streak was ignited when Noel replaced Jahlil Okafor as backup center in the final days of 2016. With more minutes of elite paint protection, Philly has allowed the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage from both 0–5 feet and 5–9 feet since December 30. This is the “violence at the rim” that Sam Hinkie spoke so reverently of.

In Philly's last 10 games they have been 2nd in league for blocks, 4th in league for defensive rebounds, and #1 for Defensive Efficiency.  If you don't think that has something to do with having at least one of Embiid or Noel on the court at all times, you don't understand baskeball.
you should read what people write with the stats and not just regurgitate the same ringer article blindly. As I have said a bunch of times I really like Noel and would like him on the Celtics for the right deal. However he has not been good recently, especially the last few weeks. Don't just ignore the valid points on this because you falsely claimed Noel's value has gone up without actually watching him.
hes been huge for them.   Nobody has said anything to dispute it in this thread.  They pointed out that the team is better with Embiid on the court... yeah... nobody is disputing that.   Embiid is a living legend.

Drugs are bad, m'kay?
Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #431 on: January 21, 2017, 03:36:25 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Embiid and the Sixers have a better record than the Celtics this year and Noel has been a crucial part of that.  I don't know how you could see that and not think Noel's value has bounced back.
The Sixers are not in any way winning games because of what Noel is doing, they are in fact winning in spite of Noel.  He has had a positive +/- twice in 15 games, a +1 and +11.  During their current streak of winning 8 out of 10 games he is a staggering -52 (worst on team by far), how they are winning games when they are getting killed with him on the floor is crazy.  However with Embiid they are a +90 and have been squeaking out victories, 4 wins by 2 points or less. 

Noels ratings during the 10 game streak of which he played in all but the win in Milwaukee.

                     Off. Rat.      Def. Rat.     Net Rat.
Noel on floor     94.6           107.5         -12.9
Noel off floor    104.0           95.0          +9.0

How anyone can either watch the games or just look at the stats and think it is in any way because of Noel is beyond me.
oracle, I don't want to ridicule you, because I know that unfortunately some fans just share out of context advanced stats that they simply don't understand.  So let me give you some context to help you better understand why this post was complete off base.

Aside from an extremely small sample size of 8 minutes in which Noel and Embiid shared the court together and "outscored opponents by 33.1 points per 100 possessions", those two have exclusively played independently from one another.   Embiid is on a 28 minute restriction so Noel is literally serving as his back-up right now. 

So what these off court/on court stats are literally showing us that Philly has played worse when Embiid's backup is in the game.  And thus, has played better when Embiid has been in the game. Kind of common sense, right?  I mean, Embiid is statistically playing at a hall of fame level if he could do it for 36 minutes a night over 82 games.  Much has been written about how Philly is like -800 with him off the court and +50 with him playing over the course of the entire season.  They have played at a 56 win pace with him on the court and a below 20 win pace with him off.   All your stats really do is settle the two year argument fans have had on this forum about whether a superstar is worth tanking for.  Embiid is a budding superstar.  What he's doing in philly proves the ends justify the means when it comes to tanking.

But I'll give you a chance to redeem yourself.  Go ahead and pull up Noel's on-court advanced stats over the past 10 games and compare it to Embiid's off-court stats over the first 25 games of the season in which Noel wasn't even playing.   That should give you a clear idea of whether Philly is playing better in Embiid's off-court time when Noel fills in.  I'm honestly too lazy to look it up myself so perhaps this will blow up in my face.  But I'll await for your analysis on that and give you props if you prove Philly's bench was playing better without the inclusion of Noel.   Good luck.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #432 on: January 21, 2017, 05:38:45 PM »

Offline RAAAAAAAANDY

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Nerlens value definitely is not great right now. He's been super inconsistent, I thought he looked great against Boston and terrible against Washington.

He's shown the flashes on defense for sure, but he has also had some really bad stretches. He's been gambling more this year, and I think he's probably pressing a bit to show on tape because of his contract.

Still he's noticeably better than Okafor, and I think by the end of the year he'll be fine. I still want to keep him long term. 

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #433 on: January 21, 2017, 05:50:13 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Nerlens value definitely is not great right now. He's been super inconsistent, I thought he looked great against Boston and terrible against Washington.

He's shown the flashes on defense for sure, but he has also had some really bad stretches. He's been gambling more this year, and I think he's probably pressing a bit to show on tape because of his contract.

Still he's noticeably better than Okafor, and I think by the end of the year he'll be fine. I still want to keep him long term.

Thanks this how I feel also. I don't really even get what LB is trying to argue here. He has been really incostemt lately and anyone watching the games would agree with that. It's not really debatable. I'm not really sure why lb is taking this hardline stance of refusing to acknowledge that and acting like his value is increasing around the league with some inconsistent play. He may very well still be injured a little.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #434 on: January 21, 2017, 05:51:33 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Embiid and the Sixers have a better record than the Celtics this year and Noel has been a crucial part of that.  I don't know how you could see that and not think Noel's value has bounced back.
The Sixers are not in any way winning games because of what Noel is doing, they are in fact winning in spite of Noel.  He has had a positive +/- twice in 15 games, a +1 and +11.  During their current streak of winning 8 out of 10 games he is a staggering -52 (worst on team by far), how they are winning games when they are getting killed with him on the floor is crazy.  However with Embiid they are a +90 and have been squeaking out victories, 4 wins by 2 points or less. 

Noels ratings during the 10 game streak of which he played in all but the win in Milwaukee.

                     Off. Rat.      Def. Rat.     Net Rat.
Noel on floor     94.6           107.5         -12.9
Noel off floor    104.0           95.0          +9.0

How anyone can either watch the games or just look at the stats and think it is in any way because of Noel is beyond me.
oracle, I don't want to ridicule you, because I know that unfortunately some fans just share out of context advanced stats that they simply don't understand.  So let me give you some context to help you better understand why this post was complete off base.

Aside from an extremely small sample size of 8 minutes in which Noel and Embiid shared the court together and "outscored opponents by 33.1 points per 100 possessions", those two have exclusively played independently from one another.   Embiid is on a 28 minute restriction so Noel is literally serving as his back-up right now. 

So what these off court/on court stats are literally showing us that Philly has played worse when Embiid's backup is in the game.  And thus, has played better when Embiid has been in the game. Kind of common sense, right?  I mean, Embiid is statistically playing at a hall of fame level if he could do it for 36 minutes a night over 82 games.  Much has been written about how Philly is like -800 with him off the court and +50 with him playing over the course of the entire season.  They have played at a 56 win pace with him on the court and a below 20 win pace with him off.   All your stats really do is settle the two year argument fans have had on this forum about whether a superstar is worth tanking for.  Embiid is a budding superstar.  What he's doing in philly proves the ends justify the means when it comes to tanking.

But I'll give you a chance to redeem yourself.  Go ahead and pull up Noel's on-court advanced stats over the past 10 games and compare it to Embiid's off-court stats over the first 25 games of the season in which Noel wasn't even playing.   That should give you a clear idea of whether Philly is playing better in Embiid's off-court time when Noel fills in.  I'm honestly too lazy to look it up myself so perhaps this will blow up in my face.  But I'll await for your analysis on that and give you props if you prove Philly's bench was playing better without the inclusion of Noel.   Good luck.

Dude just stop. It's embarrassing. He hasn't been playing great lately. Put down the ringer article and watch some games