« Reply #406 on: January 20, 2017, 03:18:05 PM »
He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.
Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.
Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.
Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.
I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.
Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'. What an entertaining season.
Lol what idiots
It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.
Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.
So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?
For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.
As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.
Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.
Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?
We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.
You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?
Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.
The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing. He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested. They have to pay someone. Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.
It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid. We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing. They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone. Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.
He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space? Why? Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks. And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.
From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).
If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel. It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.
That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years. This notion that they need to do something is silly. They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up. The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to. Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.
Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.
How does having an expensive backup center hamper you from winning games? Look at all the money the Cavs have spent on their starting lineup and backups and a lot of those signings were on a much lower cap. The Clippers have Crawford, Redick, and Rivers making over 31 million a year (Wesley Johnson is another 6 million) plus Paul, Griffin, and Jordan all over 20. If the Sixers believe Noel is the guy they want long term backing up Embiid, and they feel whatever contract he is offered is worth it, then they absolutely should match and shouldn't have any issue doing so. And the thin is, the Sixers have at least one full season after this one before they have to even consider making a move of one of their back-up centers. They aren't going to pay all 3, but there is certainly no reason they can't pay 2.
You're asking me how the team that signed Lebron James as a free agent has ever benefited from managing their cap space with an eye toward free agency?
Lebron was always going back to the Cavs, but yes they manipulated some rules, dumped players with picks, etc. to get cap space to sign James. But they still have massive salaries tied up in lesser players like Thompson, Shumpert, Smith, and Frye. What max free agent is going to sign in Philadelphia in the next couple of seasons? Because unless you can identify that player and unless your confident they can't move Noel if need be to sign that player, then your argument lacks merit.
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