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Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #375 on: January 18, 2017, 04:22:37 PM »

Offline bogg

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.


Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #376 on: January 18, 2017, 04:30:05 PM »

Online Moranis

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Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
20 million in the new CBA is not star level dollars.

Which is to say what? We're discussing trade value.
No you were discussing whether the Sixers should keep him at what dollar amount.  If he signs a 20 million a year average contract that is not a star level player, so there would be no reason for the Sixers not to keep him at that price. 
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Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #377 on: January 18, 2017, 04:36:30 PM »

Offline bogg

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Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
20 million in the new CBA is not star level dollars.

Which is to say what? We're discussing trade value.
No you were discussing whether the Sixers should keep him at what dollar amount.  If he signs a 20 million a year average contract that is not a star level player, so there would be no reason for the Sixers not to keep him at that price.

There plenty of reasons for the Sixers to think twice about paying him that much. It isn't a max contract, but it's still a fifth of the cap for a guy who isn't well-suited to share the floor with Embiid and (theoretically) Simmons. It's $20 million they no longer have to spend on players who actually fit around those two, and it's a ton to pay for a guy whose useful role probably tops put at around 20 minutes a night. You can find cheaper backup centers, and then you have that money to get an actually good shooting guard or swingman.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #378 on: January 19, 2017, 01:13:16 AM »

Offline RAAAAAAAANDY

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Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?
What exactly has Noel shown that makes anyone think he'll command this type of money?

The fact that the Nets and the Mavericks exist?

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #379 on: January 19, 2017, 03:33:01 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space. 

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #380 on: January 19, 2017, 02:30:06 PM »

Offline bogg

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

Because the goal is to win championships, and spending high-starter-level money on a backup who shouldn't share the floor with the Simmons/Embiid duo instead of...you know...starters is an inefficient use of cap space. Like I said, they can buy themselves another year if they really want to, but once you're paying Noel the contract he's expected to get and Embiid a max deal you're hamstringing your ability to fill out the roster. As a Celtics fan I hope they do this exact thing, because it lowers their overall ceiling, but I expect it's not the path they'll eventually head down.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #381 on: January 19, 2017, 03:00:10 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them. 

 

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #382 on: January 19, 2017, 03:39:52 PM »

Offline Smitty77

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I understand this thread WHEN it relates to our Celtics getting Noel.  I do NOT get why the heck we are talking about the Sixers' cap situation and the Sixers, Nets, and Mavs battling over signing Noel!!!

This is a Celtics' blog, not a Sixers' blog.

Go here for the Sixers' blog:

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Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #383 on: January 19, 2017, 03:42:36 PM »

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I understand this thread WHEN it relates to our Celtics getting Noel.  I do NOT get why the heck we are talking about the Sixers' cap situation and the Sixers, Nets, and Mavs battling over signing Noel!!!

This is a Celtics' blog, not a Sixers' blog.

Go here for the Sixers' blog:

www.libertyballers.com

Smitty77

Because we have an "Around the NBA" area of the blog.  This isn't a new concept. 


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Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #384 on: January 19, 2017, 03:44:27 PM »

Online Moranis

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything. 
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Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #385 on: January 19, 2017, 03:48:44 PM »

Offline tankcity!

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

Sure, they could but they'll have to resign Embiid the next year. And Because Brooklyn is going to offer him a ton of money, his contract will be too much for a bench player. Same thing will happen in the future that happened this year. His value will be worse because he makes more money. So they'll have a lot of resources in the Center position. After Embiid comes Okafor, and then some stupid team will offer him a ton of money.

See where I'm going with this? What is going to change in Noel's trade value compared to now? I really do hope Philly resigns him and doesn't trade him this trade deadline because they would be stuck with him.


Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #386 on: January 19, 2017, 04:57:01 PM »

Offline bogg

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #387 on: January 19, 2017, 05:27:23 PM »

Online Moranis

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto. 
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Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #388 on: January 19, 2017, 05:43:48 PM »

Offline bogg

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #389 on: January 19, 2017, 06:00:24 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

It is hard for me to not give the benefit of the doubt to the Liberty ballers writers that went through this and all their cap holds and said it seemed super unlikely they would sign Noel, Holiday (or someone similar) and have Embiid's max kick in without really hampering future flexibility.

They got bayless for 9 million
By all accounts it seems like they will pick up henderson's option for 9 million too
It also seems that they have a good chance of bringing back Illy on like a 14 million a year deal

If you don't doubt the premise that the Nets or Dallas with no way of getting a young player are going to offer Noel 25 million a year. (Considering the Nets offered 19 million a year to Crabbe 25 for Noel seems reasonable) It seems really mind boggling to me that people are arguing Philly not only can, but should match that offer. It is an overpay that a team like the Nets needs to do. A team like the 76ers who already have a starting center absolutely don't need to do it.

If people are insistent they will I guess we can agree to disagree and wait and see cause it wont get resolved any time soon without a trade.