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Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #390 on: January 19, 2017, 06:05:15 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.

Honestly I think people are just being stubborn cause they invested in this emotionally so much over the years and it is weird to rap the head around the idea that this is not a bad thing for the 76ers if Noel signs an offer sheet with another team and they don't need to match. It is actually a good thing for the the 76ers that they really don't need to overpay a player like Noel because they have a great center prospect that soaks up so many minutes. They are not forced into matching a bad contract like a lot of others will. It is like if Mickey averaged 30 points the rest of the year, Yabu came over at the trade deadling and started averaging 15 rebounds a game the second half of the year and we didn't want to overpay KO. It would not be a mess up on our part, we would be in great shape. If we still paid KO just for the heck of it in that situation cause we could that would be dumb for us. Some team is going to make a dumb offer on Noel that they will regret.

I am pretty sure Portland really regrets matching the Nets dumb offer for Crabbe last year and we would all be crying if we had matched Portland's dumb offer for Turner.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #391 on: January 19, 2017, 06:18:39 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

You really believe it makes sense to match even if it is a bad contract? If there is one team that is willing to offer a bad contract to Noel (which what we saw from last offseason will be the Nets most likely) You want to take on an extra 7-8 million a year every year for 4 years just because you can?  This means down the line you will lose the ability take salary dumps in trades (and we all saw how successful they were doing this recently with the Sac trade), will risk paying a much higher luxury tax down the road, possibly have limitations on who you can sign in following offseasons etc...

Side question, why do you have such a different opinion from the 76ers beat writers and people that cover the team that say it would make no sense to match a true max for Noel given his role on the team?

You don't think there is any possible negative consequence of matching a full 4 years max for 25 million a year (Or perhaps higher given changing cap and cba) if the Nets are in a horrible enough situation to offer one?

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #392 on: January 19, 2017, 06:20:58 PM »

Offline colincb

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.

Honestly I think people are just being stubborn cause they invested in this emotionally so much over the years and it is weird to rap the head around the idea that this is not a bad thing for the 76ers if Noel signs an offer sheet with another team and they don't need to match. It is actually a good thing for the the 76ers that they really don't need to overpay a player like Noel because they have a great center prospect that soaks up so many minutes. They are not forced into matching a bad contract like a lot of others will. It is like if Mickey averaged 30 points the rest of the year, Yabu came over at the trade deadling and started averaging 15 rebounds a game the second half of the year and we didn't want to overpay KO. It would not be a mess up on our part, we would be in great shape. If we still paid KO just for the heck of it in that situation cause we could that would be dumb for us. Some team is going to make a dumb offer on Noel that they will regret.

I am pretty sure Portland really regrets matching the Nets dumb offer for Crabbe last year and we would all be crying if we had matched Portland's dumb offer for Turner.

TP. Sixers shoud trade him for whatever value they can get. He's not part of their future and he's only good as a backup to them. You don't pay $20 million to him because you have the cap space to do so.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #393 on: January 19, 2017, 08:31:24 PM »

Offline RAAAAAAAANDY

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.

Honestly I think people are just being stubborn cause they invested in this emotionally so much over the years and it is weird to rap the head around the idea that this is not a bad thing for the 76ers if Noel signs an offer sheet with another team and they don't need to match. It is actually a good thing for the the 76ers that they really don't need to overpay a player like Noel because they have a great center prospect that soaks up so many minutes. They are not forced into matching a bad contract like a lot of others will. It is like if Mickey averaged 30 points the rest of the year, Yabu came over at the trade deadling and started averaging 15 rebounds a game the second half of the year and we didn't want to overpay KO. It would not be a mess up on our part, we would be in great shape. If we still paid KO just for the heck of it in that situation cause we could that would be dumb for us. Some team is going to make a dumb offer on Noel that they will regret.

I am pretty sure Portland really regrets matching the Nets dumb offer for Crabbe last year and we would all be crying if we had matched Portland's dumb offer for Turner.

TP. Sixers shoud trade him for whatever value they can get. He's not part of their future and he's only good as a backup to them. You don't pay $20 million to him because you have the cap space to do so.

He can pretty easily get 25 mins a game as an elite defender. I'd wait that out at 20 million dollars a year until the right offer comes along. You an move that contract pretty easily if you have to.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #394 on: January 19, 2017, 08:38:37 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.

Honestly I think people are just being stubborn cause they invested in this emotionally so much over the years and it is weird to rap the head around the idea that this is not a bad thing for the 76ers if Noel signs an offer sheet with another team and they don't need to match.

From The Ringer today:  https://theringer.com/the-sixers-are-surging-no-seriously-1ba309be239#.32wnkfasf

Quote
What’s better than having one young defensive savant? Uh, two? Since returning from surgery that kept him out of the Sixers’ first 23 games, Nerlens Noel has been as disruptive as ever. The third-year center is holding opponents to 47.8 percent at the rim and posting steal and deflection rates that would top the league if he had enough minutes to qualify for the leaderboard. That’s trippy — especially when you realize he’s younger than Embiid. And for those concerned about Noel’s offense, he’s averaging 17.2 points per 36 minutes on a mondo-efficient 59.8 true shooting percentage.

It’s not a coincidence that the Sixers’ winning streak was ignited when Noel replaced Jahlil Okafor as backup center in the final days of 2016. With more minutes of elite paint protection, Philly has allowed the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage from both 0–5 feet and 5–9 feet since December 30. This is the “violence at the rim” that Sam Hinkie spoke so reverently of.

To date, Embiid and Noel have shared the court for only eight minutes in the same color T-shirt. The Sixers outscored opponents by 33.1 points per 100 possessions over that stretch, but the sample size is too tiny to draw any conclusions. Injuries, rest, and foul trouble have stymied further attempts to pair them, but discovering if the big guys can coexist is necessary due diligence.

Still, it’s tempting to wonder if a lineup that includes (arguably) two of the top 10 defenders in the NBA could be historically fearsome. Plus, even a paltry 10 minutes of overlap per night would give Noel enough playing time to make the $80 million contract he’ll command this offseason as a restricted free agent easily palatable. The Sixers’ failure to ink Noel to an extension in October might have been a mistake, but retaining him is crucial to preserving the team’s growing identity. Crack open the checkbook and construct a traumatizing defense around Embiid and Noel for the next half-decade. Boom, done.

Thoughts?

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #395 on: January 19, 2017, 08:56:24 PM »

Offline colincb

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.

Honestly I think people are just being stubborn cause they invested in this emotionally so much over the years and it is weird to rap the head around the idea that this is not a bad thing for the 76ers if Noel signs an offer sheet with another team and they don't need to match.

From The Ringer today:  https://theringer.com/the-sixers-are-surging-no-seriously-1ba309be239#.32wnkfasf

Quote
What’s better than having one young defensive savant? Uh, two? Since returning from surgery that kept him out of the Sixers’ first 23 games, Nerlens Noel has been as disruptive as ever. The third-year center is holding opponents to 47.8 percent at the rim and posting steal and deflection rates that would top the league if he had enough minutes to qualify for the leaderboard. That’s trippy — especially when you realize he’s younger than Embiid. And for those concerned about Noel’s offense, he’s averaging 17.2 points per 36 minutes on a mondo-efficient 59.8 true shooting percentage.

It’s not a coincidence that the Sixers’ winning streak was ignited when Noel replaced Jahlil Okafor as backup center in the final days of 2016. With more minutes of elite paint protection, Philly has allowed the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage from both 0–5 feet and 5–9 feet since December 30. This is the “violence at the rim” that Sam Hinkie spoke so reverently of.

To date, Embiid and Noel have shared the court for only eight minutes in the same color T-shirt. The Sixers outscored opponents by 33.1 points per 100 possessions over that stretch, but the sample size is too tiny to draw any conclusions. Injuries, rest, and foul trouble have stymied further attempts to pair them, but discovering if the big guys can coexist is necessary due diligence.

Still, it’s tempting to wonder if a lineup that includes (arguably) two of the top 10 defenders in the NBA could be historically fearsome. Plus, even a paltry 10 minutes of overlap per night would give Noel enough playing time to make the $80 million contract he’ll command this offseason as a restricted free agent easily palatable. The Sixers’ failure to ink Noel to an extension in October might have been a mistake, but retaining him is crucial to preserving the team’s growing identity. Crack open the checkbook and construct a traumatizing defense around Embiid and Noel for the next half-decade. Boom, done.

Thoughts?

Great, and not too long down the road they'll have $50 million tied up at the 5. Good luck.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #396 on: January 19, 2017, 09:17:01 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.

Honestly I think people are just being stubborn cause they invested in this emotionally so much over the years and it is weird to rap the head around the idea that this is not a bad thing for the 76ers if Noel signs an offer sheet with another team and they don't need to match.

From The Ringer today:  https://theringer.com/the-sixers-are-surging-no-seriously-1ba309be239#.32wnkfasf

Quote
What’s better than having one young defensive savant? Uh, two? Since returning from surgery that kept him out of the Sixers’ first 23 games, Nerlens Noel has been as disruptive as ever. The third-year center is holding opponents to 47.8 percent at the rim and posting steal and deflection rates that would top the league if he had enough minutes to qualify for the leaderboard. That’s trippy — especially when you realize he’s younger than Embiid. And for those concerned about Noel’s offense, he’s averaging 17.2 points per 36 minutes on a mondo-efficient 59.8 true shooting percentage.

It’s not a coincidence that the Sixers’ winning streak was ignited when Noel replaced Jahlil Okafor as backup center in the final days of 2016. With more minutes of elite paint protection, Philly has allowed the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage from both 0–5 feet and 5–9 feet since December 30. This is the “violence at the rim” that Sam Hinkie spoke so reverently of.

To date, Embiid and Noel have shared the court for only eight minutes in the same color T-shirt. The Sixers outscored opponents by 33.1 points per 100 possessions over that stretch, but the sample size is too tiny to draw any conclusions. Injuries, rest, and foul trouble have stymied further attempts to pair them, but discovering if the big guys can coexist is necessary due diligence.

Still, it’s tempting to wonder if a lineup that includes (arguably) two of the top 10 defenders in the NBA could be historically fearsome. Plus, even a paltry 10 minutes of overlap per night would give Noel enough playing time to make the $80 million contract he’ll command this offseason as a restricted free agent easily palatable. The Sixers’ failure to ink Noel to an extension in October might have been a mistake, but retaining him is crucial to preserving the team’s growing identity. Crack open the checkbook and construct a traumatizing defense around Embiid and Noel for the next half-decade. Boom, done.

Thoughts?

Great, and not too long down the road they'll have $50 million tied up at the 5. Good luck.
So what?  They'll still have cap space to sign someone like Isaiah Thomas in 2018.  You highlighted a part that didn't make sense to highlight...  The point they make is that it makes total sense to lock up Noel for $80 million if it means you're going to have 48 minutes of elite rim protection nightly.  The amount of overlap matters less.  With both Embiid and Noel, they will always have a great defender on the court.   If that means NOel is worth X amount of money, might as well pay him it.

Honestly I think people are just being stubborn cause they invested in this emotionally so much over the years and it is weird to rap their head around the idea that this is not a bad thing for the 76ers if Noel signs an offer sheet with another team and they decide to match.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #397 on: January 19, 2017, 09:21:00 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.

Honestly I think people are just being stubborn cause they invested in this emotionally so much over the years and it is weird to rap the head around the idea that this is not a bad thing for the 76ers if Noel signs an offer sheet with another team and they don't need to match.

From The Ringer today:  https://theringer.com/the-sixers-are-surging-no-seriously-1ba309be239#.32wnkfasf

Quote
What’s better than having one young defensive savant? Uh, two? Since returning from surgery that kept him out of the Sixers’ first 23 games, Nerlens Noel has been as disruptive as ever. The third-year center is holding opponents to 47.8 percent at the rim and posting steal and deflection rates that would top the league if he had enough minutes to qualify for the leaderboard. That’s trippy — especially when you realize he’s younger than Embiid. And for those concerned about Noel’s offense, he’s averaging 17.2 points per 36 minutes on a mondo-efficient 59.8 true shooting percentage.

It’s not a coincidence that the Sixers’ winning streak was ignited when Noel replaced Jahlil Okafor as backup center in the final days of 2016. With more minutes of elite paint protection, Philly has allowed the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage from both 0–5 feet and 5–9 feet since December 30. This is the “violence at the rim” that Sam Hinkie spoke so reverently of.

To date, Embiid and Noel have shared the court for only eight minutes in the same color T-shirt. The Sixers outscored opponents by 33.1 points per 100 possessions over that stretch, but the sample size is too tiny to draw any conclusions. Injuries, rest, and foul trouble have stymied further attempts to pair them, but discovering if the big guys can coexist is necessary due diligence.

Still, it’s tempting to wonder if a lineup that includes (arguably) two of the top 10 defenders in the NBA could be historically fearsome. Plus, even a paltry 10 minutes of overlap per night would give Noel enough playing time to make the $80 million contract he’ll command this offseason as a restricted free agent easily palatable. The Sixers’ failure to ink Noel to an extension in October might have been a mistake, but retaining him is crucial to preserving the team’s growing identity. Crack open the checkbook and construct a traumatizing defense around Embiid and Noel for the next half-decade. Boom, done.

Thoughts?

I like Noel but I honestly just don't buy it. Also can't it be 25 million instead of 20? This stuff changes so much it is tough to track

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #398 on: January 19, 2017, 09:45:41 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.

Honestly I think people are just being stubborn cause they invested in this emotionally so much over the years and it is weird to rap the head around the idea that this is not a bad thing for the 76ers if Noel signs an offer sheet with another team and they don't need to match.

From The Ringer today:  https://theringer.com/the-sixers-are-surging-no-seriously-1ba309be239#.32wnkfasf

Quote
What’s better than having one young defensive savant? Uh, two? Since returning from surgery that kept him out of the Sixers’ first 23 games, Nerlens Noel has been as disruptive as ever. The third-year center is holding opponents to 47.8 percent at the rim and posting steal and deflection rates that would top the league if he had enough minutes to qualify for the leaderboard. That’s trippy — especially when you realize he’s younger than Embiid. And for those concerned about Noel’s offense, he’s averaging 17.2 points per 36 minutes on a mondo-efficient 59.8 true shooting percentage.

It’s not a coincidence that the Sixers’ winning streak was ignited when Noel replaced Jahlil Okafor as backup center in the final days of 2016. With more minutes of elite paint protection, Philly has allowed the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage from both 0–5 feet and 5–9 feet since December 30. This is the “violence at the rim” that Sam Hinkie spoke so reverently of.

To date, Embiid and Noel have shared the court for only eight minutes in the same color T-shirt. The Sixers outscored opponents by 33.1 points per 100 possessions over that stretch, but the sample size is too tiny to draw any conclusions. Injuries, rest, and foul trouble have stymied further attempts to pair them, but discovering if the big guys can coexist is necessary due diligence.

Still, it’s tempting to wonder if a lineup that includes (arguably) two of the top 10 defenders in the NBA could be historically fearsome. Plus, even a paltry 10 minutes of overlap per night would give Noel enough playing time to make the $80 million contract he’ll command this offseason as a restricted free agent easily palatable. The Sixers’ failure to ink Noel to an extension in October might have been a mistake, but retaining him is crucial to preserving the team’s growing identity. Crack open the checkbook and construct a traumatizing defense around Embiid and Noel for the next half-decade. Boom, done.

Thoughts?
I don't see a lineup with Simmons, Noel and Embiid as being viable.  Committing big money to a backup player is a good way to hamstring a rebuild.  If the Sixers can't get a reasonable trade done before the deadline, I'd just let Noel walk if the offers go above 4yr/60M.  Losing Noel for nothing just won't have much effect on the Sixers rebuild. 

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #399 on: January 19, 2017, 10:09:35 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.

Honestly I think people are just being stubborn cause they invested in this emotionally so much over the years and it is weird to rap the head around the idea that this is not a bad thing for the 76ers if Noel signs an offer sheet with another team and they don't need to match.

From The Ringer today:  https://theringer.com/the-sixers-are-surging-no-seriously-1ba309be239#.32wnkfasf

Quote
What’s better than having one young defensive savant? Uh, two? Since returning from surgery that kept him out of the Sixers’ first 23 games, Nerlens Noel has been as disruptive as ever. The third-year center is holding opponents to 47.8 percent at the rim and posting steal and deflection rates that would top the league if he had enough minutes to qualify for the leaderboard. That’s trippy — especially when you realize he’s younger than Embiid. And for those concerned about Noel’s offense, he’s averaging 17.2 points per 36 minutes on a mondo-efficient 59.8 true shooting percentage.

It’s not a coincidence that the Sixers’ winning streak was ignited when Noel replaced Jahlil Okafor as backup center in the final days of 2016. With more minutes of elite paint protection, Philly has allowed the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage from both 0–5 feet and 5–9 feet since December 30. This is the “violence at the rim” that Sam Hinkie spoke so reverently of.

To date, Embiid and Noel have shared the court for only eight minutes in the same color T-shirt. The Sixers outscored opponents by 33.1 points per 100 possessions over that stretch, but the sample size is too tiny to draw any conclusions. Injuries, rest, and foul trouble have stymied further attempts to pair them, but discovering if the big guys can coexist is necessary due diligence.

Still, it’s tempting to wonder if a lineup that includes (arguably) two of the top 10 defenders in the NBA could be historically fearsome. Plus, even a paltry 10 minutes of overlap per night would give Noel enough playing time to make the $80 million contract he’ll command this offseason as a restricted free agent easily palatable. The Sixers’ failure to ink Noel to an extension in October might have been a mistake, but retaining him is crucial to preserving the team’s growing identity. Crack open the checkbook and construct a traumatizing defense around Embiid and Noel for the next half-decade. Boom, done.

Thoughts?
I don't see a lineup with Simmons, Noel and Embiid as being viable.  Committing big money to a backup player is a good way to hamstring a rebuild.  If the Sixers can't get a reasonable trade done before the deadline, I'd just let Noel walk if the offers go above 4yr/60M.  Losing Noel for nothing just won't have much effect on the Sixers rebuild.
they would need to trade okafor, but there's plenty of minutes for both Embiid and Noel long-term when Simmons returns.  Can't Simmons guard the small forward position?

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #400 on: January 19, 2017, 10:10:22 PM »

Offline RAAAAAAAANDY

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.

Honestly I think people are just being stubborn cause they invested in this emotionally so much over the years and it is weird to rap the head around the idea that this is not a bad thing for the 76ers if Noel signs an offer sheet with another team and they don't need to match.

From The Ringer today:  https://theringer.com/the-sixers-are-surging-no-seriously-1ba309be239#.32wnkfasf

Quote
What’s better than having one young defensive savant? Uh, two? Since returning from surgery that kept him out of the Sixers’ first 23 games, Nerlens Noel has been as disruptive as ever. The third-year center is holding opponents to 47.8 percent at the rim and posting steal and deflection rates that would top the league if he had enough minutes to qualify for the leaderboard. That’s trippy — especially when you realize he’s younger than Embiid. And for those concerned about Noel’s offense, he’s averaging 17.2 points per 36 minutes on a mondo-efficient 59.8 true shooting percentage.

It’s not a coincidence that the Sixers’ winning streak was ignited when Noel replaced Jahlil Okafor as backup center in the final days of 2016. With more minutes of elite paint protection, Philly has allowed the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage from both 0–5 feet and 5–9 feet since December 30. This is the “violence at the rim” that Sam Hinkie spoke so reverently of.

To date, Embiid and Noel have shared the court for only eight minutes in the same color T-shirt. The Sixers outscored opponents by 33.1 points per 100 possessions over that stretch, but the sample size is too tiny to draw any conclusions. Injuries, rest, and foul trouble have stymied further attempts to pair them, but discovering if the big guys can coexist is necessary due diligence.

Still, it’s tempting to wonder if a lineup that includes (arguably) two of the top 10 defenders in the NBA could be historically fearsome. Plus, even a paltry 10 minutes of overlap per night would give Noel enough playing time to make the $80 million contract he’ll command this offseason as a restricted free agent easily palatable. The Sixers’ failure to ink Noel to an extension in October might have been a mistake, but retaining him is crucial to preserving the team’s growing identity. Crack open the checkbook and construct a traumatizing defense around Embiid and Noel for the next half-decade. Boom, done.

Thoughts?
I don't see a lineup with Simmons, Noel and Embiid as being viable.  Committing big money to a backup player is a good way to hamstring a rebuild.  If the Sixers can't get a reasonable trade done before the deadline, I'd just let Noel walk if the offers go above 4yr/60M.  Losing Noel for nothing just won't have much effect on the Sixers rebuild.

I'd dump Oak, and carry Noel at 20  a year for at least 1 year... Now if the Nets go ham as they tend to do under Marks it becomes a discussion.

You can move him at the end of the 17-18 year to a few teams I suspect. Lakers, Blazers, Nets, Mavs, Wiz, Pellies, etc. all need some semblance of rim protection at the C spot. Some will solve it via other means, but there'll be a team to dump the contract to for free if they really need the space.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #401 on: January 20, 2017, 05:41:48 AM »

Online tazzmaniac

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.

Honestly I think people are just being stubborn cause they invested in this emotionally so much over the years and it is weird to rap the head around the idea that this is not a bad thing for the 76ers if Noel signs an offer sheet with another team and they don't need to match.

From The Ringer today:  https://theringer.com/the-sixers-are-surging-no-seriously-1ba309be239#.32wnkfasf

Quote
What’s better than having one young defensive savant? Uh, two? Since returning from surgery that kept him out of the Sixers’ first 23 games, Nerlens Noel has been as disruptive as ever. The third-year center is holding opponents to 47.8 percent at the rim and posting steal and deflection rates that would top the league if he had enough minutes to qualify for the leaderboard. That’s trippy — especially when you realize he’s younger than Embiid. And for those concerned about Noel’s offense, he’s averaging 17.2 points per 36 minutes on a mondo-efficient 59.8 true shooting percentage.

It’s not a coincidence that the Sixers’ winning streak was ignited when Noel replaced Jahlil Okafor as backup center in the final days of 2016. With more minutes of elite paint protection, Philly has allowed the second-lowest opponent field goal percentage from both 0–5 feet and 5–9 feet since December 30. This is the “violence at the rim” that Sam Hinkie spoke so reverently of.

To date, Embiid and Noel have shared the court for only eight minutes in the same color T-shirt. The Sixers outscored opponents by 33.1 points per 100 possessions over that stretch, but the sample size is too tiny to draw any conclusions. Injuries, rest, and foul trouble have stymied further attempts to pair them, but discovering if the big guys can coexist is necessary due diligence.

Still, it’s tempting to wonder if a lineup that includes (arguably) two of the top 10 defenders in the NBA could be historically fearsome. Plus, even a paltry 10 minutes of overlap per night would give Noel enough playing time to make the $80 million contract he’ll command this offseason as a restricted free agent easily palatable. The Sixers’ failure to ink Noel to an extension in October might have been a mistake, but retaining him is crucial to preserving the team’s growing identity. Crack open the checkbook and construct a traumatizing defense around Embiid and Noel for the next half-decade. Boom, done.

Thoughts?
I don't see a lineup with Simmons, Noel and Embiid as being viable.  Committing big money to a backup player is a good way to hamstring a rebuild.  If the Sixers can't get a reasonable trade done before the deadline, I'd just let Noel walk if the offers go above 4yr/60M.  Losing Noel for nothing just won't have much effect on the Sixers rebuild.

I'd dump Oak, and carry Noel at 20  a year for at least 1 year... Now if the Nets go ham as they tend to do under Marks it becomes a discussion.

You can move him at the end of the 17-18 year to a few teams I suspect. Lakers, Blazers, Nets, Mavs, Wiz, Pellies, etc. all need some semblance of rim protection at the C spot. Some will solve it via other means, but there'll be a team to dump the contract to for free if they really need the space.
I used to be higher on Noel but I didn't like his handling of the 3 center situation.  He should have come in focused on outplaying Okafor and showing he was the 2nd best center on the team.  I also don't like that he showed no aptitude to play PF.  He's a very good but small defensive center with limited rebounding and limited offense. 

Managing cap space is still very important to the Sixers rebuild.  If the Sixers sign Noel to a 4yr/80M contract, he won't be easy to move.  Few teams are going to have the cap space to absorb 20M without sending significant salary back.  I'd only go that high if Simmons/Noel proves to be a very good combo.  Right now, I'd be trying work a trade to get a late lottery pick from a team who can't sign Noel in free agency (e.g. NOP, Blazers) without taking on much salary and would find a better use for the available cap space.     

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #402 on: January 20, 2017, 09:30:03 AM »

Offline bogg

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So what?  They'll still have cap space to sign someone like Isaiah Thomas in 2018.  You highlighted a part that didn't make sense to highlight...  The point they make is that it makes total sense to lock up Noel for $80 million if it means you're going to have 48 minutes of elite rim protection nightly.  The amount of overlap matters less.  With both Embiid and Noel, they will always have a great defender on the court.   If that means NOel is worth X amount of money, might as well pay him it.

Honestly I think people are just being stubborn cause they invested in this emotionally so much over the years and it is weird to rap their head around the idea that this is not a bad thing for the 76ers if Noel signs an offer sheet with another team and they decide to match.

The problem is that they aren't buying 48 minutes of rim protection with that $20ish million salary slot - they already have Embiid on the roster and nobody's arguing they should think twice about paying him. If we assume that Embiid eventually gets healthy enough to play regular starter's minutes (and if he doesn't then Philly has much bigger problems) then you're looking at that salary slot buying you 12-14 minutes a night of rim protection above what you could get from a good backup (incidentally, Richaun Holmes has the same 4.4 BLK% for his career that Noel has, so......). What you're really asking is whether what Noel gives you in the low-to-mid-teens minutes a night when Embiid isn't on the floor over what Holmes (or someone else) would give you in that time is more valuable than what a starting-caliber wing that you could otherwise sign with that money would bring in 30ish minutes a night. If they're smart about targeting wing players, I think not.


I'd dump Oak, and carry Noel at 20  a year for at least 1 year... Now if the Nets go ham as they tend to do under Marks it becomes a discussion.

You can move him at the end of the 17-18 year to a few teams I suspect. Lakers, Blazers, Nets, Mavs, Wiz, Pellies, etc. all need some semblance of rim protection at the C spot. Some will solve it via other means, but there'll be a team to dump the contract to for free if they really need the space.

That's fine if you think that that big offer they're holding out for (a top-notch young wing or very high draft pick) is coming down the pipe once Noel's signed to a big deal. Otherwise, you're asking your two best players (well, theoretically in Simmons' case) to bump up a position and Embiid to do his best Ryan Anderson impression to accommodate a backup who needs his salary justified. I continue to think they're throwing good money (both literal and figurative) after bad while chasing their initial investment in this scenario.

Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #403 on: January 20, 2017, 10:40:07 AM »

Offline Moranis

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.
How does having an expensive backup center hamper you from winning games?  Look at all the money the Cavs have spent on their starting lineup and backups and a lot of those signings were on a much lower cap.  The Clippers have Crawford, Redick, and Rivers making over 31 million a year (Wesley Johnson is another 6 million) plus Paul, Griffin, and Jordan all over 20.  If the Sixers believe Noel is the guy they want long term backing up Embiid, and they feel whatever contract he is offered is worth it, then they absolutely should match and shouldn't have any issue doing so.  And the thin is, the Sixers have at least one full season after this one before they have to even consider making a move of one of their back-up centers.  They aren't going to pay all 3, but there is certainly no reason they can't pay 2.
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Re: The Sixers missed their sell high moment
« Reply #404 on: January 20, 2017, 01:41:42 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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He's a good young defensive player potentially available for nothing but cap space. Some team with money to burn and is looking to pick up a useful young player is going to throw a contract his way.
Kelly Olynyk is a "useful young player", and so was Jared Sullinger -- but I doubt anyone is giving them $20 million any time soon.

Noel also has the dubious distinction of being a mediocre rebounder, an offensive nonfactor, and and completely lacking positional versatility. Given that he's somewhat undersized, and generally not very productive, I see his ceiling as a system-type player a la Kendrick Perkins. Otherwise someone would have broken the bank for him already. Don't think it's an accident that he readily lost his starting spot this season.

Well, if you're right the Sixers are sitting pretty, because Noel will get an affordable contract and they'll just keep him. This is basically what Colangelo's hoping at this point.

Can someone explain why the Nets won't just go crazy on him? They could play him next to Brook if they keep him and he is a lot better player than Crabbe or Johnson who they chased last offseason. This is also why restricted free agency can be tough to plan for. The entire league could view Noel as a 20 million per year player, but one team could just overvalue him and offered him 25 million. I don't think the 76ers would match that if it happens.

I happen to agree with you - some rebuilding team, quite possibly Dallas, with cap space and not too much in the way of picks is likely to throw a big contract his way to pick up a good young piece by paying a bit of a premium. I'll even take it a step further - if Boston strikes out in free agency and Noel is still sitting there I could see Boston throwing a healthy offer his way and letting whatever happens happen.

Philly is playing in Washington right now with Okafor filling in for Embiid (second night of a back-to-back)... Okafor just went to the line and Philly fans in attendance started chanting "MVP'.  What an entertaining season.

Lol what idiots

It was a 350 person bus trip, and they had planned to do MVP chants every time a Sixers player went to the line.

Trust me, those fans are about as out on the future of Okafor as anybody. As am I, because he stinks.

So are they out on both Okafor AND Noel?

For all of the high picks, I expected more production by now.

As for the Celtics, I expected more out of Smart. It doesn't seem as bad b/c the Celtics are winning. Re: Jaylen, I need to see him for a couple more years before forming an opinion.

Nah, they still love Noel. Their collective fan base is trying to talk themselves into paying half the cap to the center position to avoid watching Noel leave for little to nothing.

Half the cap? You dump Okafor, Holmes makes pennies, Embiid is on a rookie deal, and Noel will make maybe 20 a year? 22-24 possibly?

We have plenty of space, and if we need to move Noel I'm pretty confident we'd be able to if we had the ability to sign a guy with that space.

You think Dallas or the Nets wouldn't take him on that deal given their FA failures?

Yes, half the cap. Embiid's going into the last year of his rookie deal and will be extension-eligible this summer, at which point I think we both expect Philly to sign him to the largest extension possible under the new CBA. Philly can buy themselves a year matching an offer sheet for Noel, but in the second season of that contract you're paying almost $50 million to the center position between Embiid and Noel (and if Embiid triggers the mechanism to bump the percentage of his max to the second tier you're north of $50 million). You'd have no trouble dumping Noel on that contract, but nobody's mortgaging their future to get a nice complimentary piece on a near-max contract, which leaves Philly in a similar bind as they're in now - the return in trade simply isn't likely to match the initial investment.

The truth is that if the purpose of this multi-year tanking project was/is to win a championship and Embiid suffers some sort of long-term injury Philly's screwed anyway. They're better-served spending that money putting good pieces around Embiid, not behind him, and trying to compete for a title instead of raising their floor at the expense of lowering their ceiling.
I agree, but it's tough to watch a nice piece walk out the door for no return.
I think it's incredibly unlikely that Philly will ever let Noel walk for nothing.  He has value pre and post contract and teams are clearly interested.  They have to pay someone.  Unless they are using their cap room to sign stars around Embiid, I don't see that happening.

It all depends on how Philly plays it - he's got some value, but he doesn't have star level value, and at some point they'll be forced to accept that or they'll hamstring their roster-building capability going forward. Dallas isn't going to offer a Harrison Barnes S&T just because Colangelo threatens to match their offer sheet.
He doesn't need to have "star-level" value, he's an asset and he fits well providing elite defense behind Embiid.   We're more likely to let Olynyk walk for nothing than they are likely to let Noel walk for nothing.  They have tons of cap space they'll need to use on someone.  Unless multiple max-contract level superstars decide to join Embiid, Simmons and their 2017 draft picks on Philly's budding dynasty, I can't see a scenario where they don't just give Noel the QO, or they extend him/match any offer.

He fits well so long as he and/or Embiid are cheap. Like I said though, Noel's getting a new contract this summer and Embiid's eligible for his max extension as well. Next summer you've taken up a ton of your cap going the "match any offer" route. They can buy themselves one more year to figure it out if they really want, but the clock's going to remain ticking.
You are concerned about their cap space?  Why?  Even if Noel got his hypothetical 20 million offer this Summer and Philly matched, they still have something like 40 mil in cap space this Summer after adding their two lotto picks.  And if they don't use that cap space to sign a guy like Gordan Hayward this Summer, they could just wait a year and have plenty of cap space to sign a 2018 free agent like Isaiah Thomas in the short window before extending Embiid, because his cap hold would still leave them with max cap space.

From what I have read. The 76ers want to sign a reasonable point guard to play alongside Simmons next year (it seems nobody thinks Bayless coming off his wrist injuries is worth starting). Zach Lowe has speculated it may be someone like Jrue Holiday. A less enthusiastic idea they hypothesized on LB was George Hill. There is also the pipe dream of Lowry. Having someone like that that will start and play 30-35 minutes for them is a lot more of a need than the luxury of having Noel play 20-25 minutes for them and serve as mediocre Embiid insurance (meaning if Embiid gets hurt they are kind of screwed anyways).

If they are forced to choose to match whatever crazy package Dallas or the Nets throw at Noel it is going to hamstring their ability to get players down the line and possibly what they can offer for the guard they want this offseason. Noel is worth a lot more to a team like Dallas or the Nets that can play him 35 minutes and have him anchor the defense than he is to the 76ers. The only reason I could see them matching is just to be stubborn because BC kind of seems like an idiot. It is definitely in their best interest to trade him before the deadline if they can get anything. If it reaches this offseason it is hard to imagine them matching whatever offer these terrible teams throw at him when he is not worth the same to them.
The Sixers will still have max cap room even if some team throws the max at Noel.  It just doesn't make sense for the Sixers to let him go when they matching won't cost them anything.

That's the thing, matching does cost them something - that salary slot. The days of infinite cap space and nothing that happens on the court mattering are rapidly coming to a close, and they'll be chasing a playoff spot next season at the latest. They've probably got enough space, and limited enough free agency options, to float Noel on a big deal for one season while Embiid finishes up his rookie contract, but after then the contract becomes an albatross for them. They can trade him then, or they can trade him now, but they simply can't keep Noel long-term without seriously hurting themselves.
Or they just keep him for four years.  This notion that they need to do something is silly.  They can't keep Okafor and Noel long term, so they need to pick which one they want long term, but there is no reason that one of them can't be Embiid's back-up even at a high salary because they don't have to pay Simmons for 3 years and won't have to pay their rookies from this summer until after Noel's 4 years are up.  The Sixers can certainly carry Embiid and Noel through the 2020-21 season if they want to.  Heck they might actually find that they can play Embiid and Noel together for stretches Cousins and Cauley-Stein/Koufus do in Sacto.

Yea, sure, they can keep him for four years, so long as they're willing to commit half the cap to the center position for three of the four years. There are a lot of things you can do if you're more worried about public perception than you are about winning games.
How does having an expensive backup center hamper you from winning games?  Look at all the money the Cavs have spent on their starting lineup and backups and a lot of those signings were on a much lower cap.  The Clippers have Crawford, Redick, and Rivers making over 31 million a year (Wesley Johnson is another 6 million) plus Paul, Griffin, and Jordan all over 20.  If the Sixers believe Noel is the guy they want long term backing up Embiid, and they feel whatever contract he is offered is worth it, then they absolutely should match and shouldn't have any issue doing so.  And the thin is, the Sixers have at least one full season after this one before they have to even consider making a move of one of their back-up centers.  They aren't going to pay all 3, but there is certainly no reason they can't pay 2.
it is kind of funny you are using the clippers as an example. One of their biggest problems has been lack of depth and extremely low cost small forwards that have really hurt them over the years. If they had had better contracts perhaps they would have had more playoff series victories over the years. Also isn't this the first year rivers is making big money? That is fairly irrelevant
http://www.clipsnation.com/2016/5/4/11594178/the-clippers-cap-hell-this-summer-free-agency
« Last Edit: January 20, 2017, 02:24:42 PM by celticsclay »