If We Get #1, Then Trade Down With Philadelphia For #2 AND #7?

[LarBrd33]

As someone who admittedly doesn't follow College ball, I base my perception of it on what others say.  So here the 3 things forming my perception of this draft right now:

#1 - From what I've read, Jaylen wouldn't go in the top 10 of this draft.  I think that says more about how this draft is perceived by draftniks (multiple Tier 1 and 2 prospects) than it does about how Jaylen is currently perceived (a Tier 3/4 prospect).   

#2 -  From what I've read, most of the top prospects are elite guards with star potential.  One mock I see right now has the top 3 picks all as PGs (Ball, Smith, Fultz).   Malik Monk is another sharp-shooting guard expected to go in the top 10.   Other PGs seem to be in the mix in the top 10 like Fox and Ntilikina.  The rest of the top prospects seem to be Small Forwards (josh Jackson, Tatum, Isaac, Anunonby).

#3 - From what I understand, there is no actual consensus top pick right now.  Everyone seems super excited about Fultz, but he doesn't seem to be the consensus #1.   I saw Ball at the top of a couple mocks recently.  So while there's some elite talent up top, there doesn't seem to be a player distancing himself from the rest.

So...  I can't really see the logic in a team trading two star prospects (one of which is more than likely a PG) for 1 star prospect (who is more than likely a PG).   Makes no sense.

Philly is set up scary good heading forward.  They have plenty of bigs.  Their biggest need is guard play and they should come out of this draft with at least 1 guard with legitimate star potential.   I expect the Lakers to desperately start tanking to try to get themselves in the bottom 3.  I dont' think they want to miss out on this draft if it's as amazing as people are starting to claim.

[max215]

It seems like a good idea right now, but historically speaking, this isn't a course of action that would work out well.

The 1980 draft would be to differ ... #1 (Joe Barely Cares) for #3 (McHale) and a young Robert Parish. 

There are always exceptions.

[clevelandceltic]

Im not not sure why these two would prevent you from making a move. On one hand everyone is screaming for a star but when an idea is proposed to get maybe 2 future stars people say well we dont want all these young guys. We have the young guys we took last year plus 2nd rds this year.

I would give up whatever I needed on this team besides Brown, AB, IT, Horford, and Smart. You can have the 18 pick. Any of the future picks. I could care less. I dont see a player that puts this team over the top in the next two years being available for trade. So from my perspective let me have 3 young guys that could be stars in 3 or 4 years when some of the Vets are in their late 20's or in the case of Horford 33 or 34.

In a trade that nets Tatum and Giles you could play Giles in Amir's min Jaylen in his current min and Tatum in JJ min. Will the team take a step back sure but you arent going to win in anyways in the next 2 years.

I'd go ahead and take the guy I think is the best in the draft at #1 and feel good about it.

We've got enough players to develop and fit into the rotation as it is.

'Pretty much my thoughts exactly.

I also look at next year as when we'll almost certainly also be bringing in Yabusele and Zizic.

The more I look at Zizic (who had a very nice turn last night in his 2nd EuroLeague game:  14 points on 6 of 8 and 9 rebounds in just 24 minutes) the more he looks like if he had waited to declare in THIS draft, with it's shortage of top big men, might have gone closer to #10 than #20.

Most mock's I've seen have Bam Aydebayo as the highest ranked 'true center' at #13-15 and Zizic looks like a much more impressive prospect.

Yabusele is harder to compare to anyone, let alone anyone in this particular draft, but he was a #16 last year and has looked good all this season while doing everything Danny has wanted of him (i.e., I don't think we should hold the level of competition in the CBA against him).

Together with whomever we pick with the Nets pick (assuming no trade), that's plenty of young talent to have to integrate as rookies.

Folks should note that we also have three SECOND round picks coming in this draft, including the #36 (from MIN), so that isn't a throw-away.   Hopefully Danny will be able to trade those excess picks away for something useful or in the future.
 
So I concur with Phosita, here.  Just take the best player with our first pick and be happy.

[celticsclay]

As someone who admittedly doesn't follow College ball, I base my perception of it on what others say.  So here the 3 things forming my perception of this draft right now:

#1 - From what I've read, Jaylen wouldn't go in the top 10 of this draft.  I think that says more about how this draft is perceived by draftniks (multiple Tier 1 and 2 prospects) than it does about how Jaylen is currently perceived (a Tier 3/4 prospect).   

#2 -  From what I've read, most of the top prospects are elite guards with star potential.  One mock I see right now has the top 3 picks all as PGs (Ball, Smith, Fultz).   Malik Monk is another sharp-shooting guard expected to go in the top 10.   Other PGs seem to be in the mix in the top 10 like Fox and Ntilikina.  The rest of the top prospects seem to be Small Forwards (josh Jackson, Tatum, Isaac, Anunonby).

#3 - From what I understand, there is no actual consensus top pick right now.  Everyone seems super excited about Fultz, but he doesn't seem to be the consensus #1.   I saw Ball at the top of a couple mocks recently.  So while there's some elite talent up top, there doesn't seem to be a player distancing himself from the rest.

So...  I can't really see the logic in a team trading two star prospects (one of which is more than likely a PG) for 1 star prospect (who is more than likely a PG).   Makes no sense.

Philly is set up scary good heading forward.  They have plenty of bigs.  Their biggest need is guard play and they should come out of this draft with at least 1 guard with legitimate star potential.   I expect the Lakers to desperately start tanking to try to get themselves in the bottom 3.  I dont' think they want to miss out on this draft if it's as amazing as people are starting to claim.

This isn't true

[tankcity!]

As someone who admittedly doesn't follow College ball, I base my perception of it on what others say.  So here the 3 things forming my perception of this draft right now:

#1 - From what I've read, Jaylen wouldn't go in the top 10 of this draft.  I think that says more about how this draft is perceived by draftniks (multiple Tier 1 and 2 prospects) than it does about how Jaylen is currently perceived (a Tier 3/4 prospect).   

#2 -  From what I've read, most of the top prospects are elite guards with star potential.  One mock I see right now has the top 3 picks all as PGs (Ball, Smith, Fultz).   Malik Monk is another sharp-shooting guard expected to go in the top 10.   Other PGs seem to be in the mix in the top 10 like Fox and Ntilikina.  The rest of the top prospects seem to be Small Forwards (josh Jackson, Tatum, Isaac, Anunonby).

#3 - From what I understand, there is no actual consensus top pick right now.  Everyone seems super excited about Fultz, but he doesn't seem to be the consensus #1.   I saw Ball at the top of a couple mocks recently.  So while there's some elite talent up top, there doesn't seem to be a player distancing himself from the rest.

So...  I can't really see the logic in a team trading two star prospects (one of which is more than likely a PG) for 1 star prospect (who is more than likely a PG).   Makes no sense.

Philly is set up scary good heading forward. They have plenty of bigs.  Their biggest need is guard play and they should come out of this draft with at least 1 guard with legitimate star potential.   I expect the Lakers to desperately start tanking to try to get themselves in the bottom 3.  I dont' think they want to miss out on this draft if it's as amazing as people are starting to claim.

I miss this.

[LarBrd33]

As someone who admittedly doesn't follow College ball, I base my perception of it on what others say.  So here the 3 things forming my perception of this draft right now:

#1 - From what I've read, Jaylen wouldn't go in the top 10 of this draft.  I think that says more about how this draft is perceived by draftniks (multiple Tier 1 and 2 prospects) than it does about how Jaylen is currently perceived (a Tier 3/4 prospect).   

#2 -  From what I've read, most of the top prospects are elite guards with star potential.  One mock I see right now has the top 3 picks all as PGs (Ball, Smith, Fultz).   Malik Monk is another sharp-shooting guard expected to go in the top 10.   Other PGs seem to be in the mix in the top 10 like Fox and Ntilikina.  The rest of the top prospects seem to be Small Forwards (josh Jackson, Tatum, Isaac, Anunonby).

#3 - From what I understand, there is no actual consensus top pick right now.  Everyone seems super excited about Fultz, but he doesn't seem to be the consensus #1.   I saw Ball at the top of a couple mocks recently.  So while there's some elite talent up top, there doesn't seem to be a player distancing himself from the rest.

So...  I can't really see the logic in a team trading two star prospects (one of which is more than likely a PG) for 1 star prospect (who is more than likely a PG).   Makes no sense.

Philly is set up scary good heading forward.  They have plenty of bigs.  Their biggest need is guard play and they should come out of this draft with at least 1 guard with legitimate star potential.   I expect the Lakers to desperately start tanking to try to get themselves in the bottom 3.  I dont' think they want to miss out on this draft if it's as amazing as people are starting to claim.

This isn't true

Seen it suggested a few times.   Here's some quotes from the Sporting News draft guy a few weeks ago:  http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2016/12/2017_nba_draft_incredibly_stro.html

I asked Vecenie a dumb question about which prospect would fit the current Celtics best.

"Oh, man. I might say Jayson Tatum," he replied, referencing the 6-foot-8 wing from Duke. "I would like to see the Celtics gain a little bit more creation on the wing, right? Because I think Jaylen Brown and Jae Crowder, like, those guys -- in Crowder's case he's already good, Jaylen Brown I think he's going to be a really good role player. Those guys are awesome in terms of the value they provide to a team, but they aren't necessarily the best shot creators. I think it would be interesting to get a guy in there who would really create a shot, who would fit in defensively with what they want to do, who would not necessarily be on the elite level in guarding wings like a Marcus Smart or a Crowder or like Jaylen Brown can be, but it would provide a different dimension I think. And I would really like to see (them), maybe, replace Jonas Jerebko's minutes with Jayson Tatum."

Looking back

Considering the Celtics held onto their pick last year, Vecenie thinks they should have taken either Dragan Bender or the guy they actually selected, Jaylen Brown. Vecenie had Brown at No. 4 on his big board last year and believes the Celtics rookie will be "a really solid pro player for a good while," but added that Boston's No. 3 pick would have held more value in another year. Brown might have slid down the lottery if he had come out in 2017 instead.

"Jaylen Brown in this draft class would probably be closer to I would say maybe 10th overall, something like that right now," Vecenie said. "Like, look at a guy like OG Anunoby. Anunoby already provides way more defensive value. He's a little bit better of a shooter. It's easier to see him slotting into a lineup right now than it is to see Jaylen Brown slotting into a lineup in many ways. Just because of he's a little bit bigger, a little bit longer, and he can shoot the ball. He's a little bit more amenable as a role player in terms of what the Celtics are trying to do on the wing there."

FWIW, he suggested OG Anunoby is a better prospect on both offense and defense and Anunoby is projected 22nd on NBADraft.net right now.  That should give you some idea of how draft experts see this upcoming draft in comparison to the Tier 3/4 prospects that were selected in the 3-8 range last year. 

[Diggles]

As someone who admittedly doesn't follow College ball, I base my perception of it on what others say.  So here the 3 things forming my perception of this draft right now:

By your same Logic they should hold onto 2 and 7 then.   

#1 - From what I've read, Jaylen wouldn't go in the top 10 of this draft.  I think that says more about how this draft is perceived by draftniks (multiple Tier 1 and 2 prospects) than it does about how Jaylen is currently perceived (a Tier 3/4 prospect).   

#2 -  From what I've read, most of the top prospects are elite guards with star potential.  One mock I see right now has the top 3 picks all as PGs (Ball, Smith, Fultz).   Malik Monk is another sharp-shooting guard expected to go in the top 10.   Other PGs seem to be in the mix in the top 10 like Fox and Ntilikina.  The rest of the top prospects seem to be Small Forwards (josh Jackson, Tatum, Isaac, Anunonby).

#3 - From what I understand, there is no actual consensus top pick right now.  Everyone seems super excited about Fultz, but he doesn't seem to be the consensus #1.   I saw Ball at the top of a couple mocks recently.  So while there's some elite talent up top, there doesn't seem to be a player distancing himself from the rest.

So...  I can't really see the logic in a team trading two star prospects (one of which is more than likely a PG) for 1 star prospect (who is more than likely a PG).   Makes no sense.

Philly is set up scary good heading forward.  They have plenty of bigs.  Their biggest need is guard play and they should come out of this draft with at least 1 guard with legitimate star potential.   I expect the Lakers to desperately start tanking to try to get themselves in the bottom 3.  I dont' think they want to miss out on this draft if it's as amazing as people are starting to claim.

[clevelandceltic]

I think Jaylen is much closer to the top 10. What would have put pressure on his stock is the fact that the Cal offense did not have a natural flow thus Jaylen putting up horrible turnover numbers. It wasnt a free flowing offense. I  would take Jaylen over Monk everyday because Jaylen is a two way player.

Besides comparing drafts doesnt really show much because players progress and you have no real idea how they will turn out the next year.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Fultz is a fantastic prospect and I'd take him over any two of the guys after him.  Even so, I have it like this:

1.) Fultz
2.) Tatum
3.) Ball
4.) Josh Jackson
5.) Lauri Markkanen (Maybe even 3rd)
6.) T Rex
7.) Monk

So yeah if we are getting Dino Johnson Jr or Malik "No defense, shoot without looking for a pass" Monk, no thanks.

[greece66]

I'd go ahead and take the guy I think is the best in the draft at #1 and feel good about it.

We've got enough players to develop and fit into the rotation as it is.

^this

Better to trust what you know about your own team, than what you think you know about other teams.

[green_bballers13]

As someone who admittedly doesn't follow College ball, I base my perception of it on what others say.  So here the 3 things forming my perception of this draft right now:

#1 - From what I've read, Jaylen wouldn't go in the top 10 of this draft.  I think that says more about how this draft is perceived by draftniks (multiple Tier 1 and 2 prospects) than it does about how Jaylen is currently perceived (a Tier 3/4 prospect).   

#2 -  From what I've read, most of the top prospects are elite guards with star potential.  One mock I see right now has the top 3 picks all as PGs (Ball, Smith, Fultz).   Malik Monk is another sharp-shooting guard expected to go in the top 10.   Other PGs seem to be in the mix in the top 10 like Fox and Ntilikina.  The rest of the top prospects seem to be Small Forwards (josh Jackson, Tatum, Isaac, Anunonby).

#3 - From what I understand, there is no actual consensus top pick right now.  Everyone seems super excited about Fultz, but he doesn't seem to be the consensus #1.   I saw Ball at the top of a couple mocks recently.  So while there's some elite talent up top, there doesn't seem to be a player distancing himself from the rest.

So...  I can't really see the logic in a team trading two star prospects (one of which is more than likely a PG) for 1 star prospect (who is more than likely a PG).   Makes no sense.

Philly is set up scary good heading forward.  They have plenty of bigs.  Their biggest need is guard play and they should come out of this draft with at least 1 guard with legitimate star potential.   I expect the Lakers to desperately start tanking to try to get themselves in the bottom 3.  I dont' think they want to miss out on this draft if it's as amazing as people are starting to claim.

What was the point of this paragraph? I don't see how it fits into your point that Philly shouldn't do such a deal.

[LarBrd33]

As someone who admittedly doesn't follow College ball, I base my perception of it on what others say.  So here the 3 things forming my perception of this draft right now:

#1 - From what I've read, Jaylen wouldn't go in the top 10 of this draft.  I think that says more about how this draft is perceived by draftniks (multiple Tier 1 and 2 prospects) than it does about how Jaylen is currently perceived (a Tier 3/4 prospect).   

#2 -  From what I've read, most of the top prospects are elite guards with star potential.  One mock I see right now has the top 3 picks all as PGs (Ball, Smith, Fultz).   Malik Monk is another sharp-shooting guard expected to go in the top 10.   Other PGs seem to be in the mix in the top 10 like Fox and Ntilikina.  The rest of the top prospects seem to be Small Forwards (josh Jackson, Tatum, Isaac, Anunonby).

#3 - From what I understand, there is no actual consensus top pick right now.  Everyone seems super excited about Fultz, but he doesn't seem to be the consensus #1.   I saw Ball at the top of a couple mocks recently.  So while there's some elite talent up top, there doesn't seem to be a player distancing himself from the rest.

So...  I can't really see the logic in a team trading two star prospects (one of which is more than likely a PG) for 1 star prospect (who is more than likely a PG).   Makes no sense.

Philly is set up scary good heading forward.  They have plenty of bigs.  Their biggest need is guard play and they should come out of this draft with at least 1 guard with legitimate star potential.   I expect the Lakers to desperately start tanking to try to get themselves in the bottom 3.  I dont' think they want to miss out on this draft if it's as amazing as people are starting to claim.

What was the point of this paragraph? I don't see how it fits into your point that Philly shouldn't do such a deal.

The point is, if the draft experts are right and the guys in the 1-10 range are better prospects than Jaylen Brown, why would you trade 2 of them for 1 of them?  We're talking about trading 2 Ben Simmons for 1 Ben Simmons.  Why do that?  The point is that it's supposed to be a great draft.  The proposed idea makes no sense.  Maybe in a bad draft the #7 pick would have little value, but in this one, it's a possible star.  There's also conflicting feelings on if their is any separation between the top 3 guards in this draft.  From what I've read, they are all outstanding prospects.   No logic to this.

[green_bballers13]

So your point is that there's plenty of talent in the top 10, and that there's not a big difference between 1-10 in the 2017 draft.

I still don't get what Jaylen Brown has to do with that.

Also, who is considering him to be a tier 3/4 prospect? ESPN gave Brown a 96 rating out of HS. The same grade that Ingram, Lonzo Ball, and Markelle Fultz got.

Is the "some people are saying" line of thinking yours, or are there actual people that think he's a tier 3/4 player?

[clevelandceltic]

I dont see 10 Ben SImmons anywhere in this draft. I think some of these players are getting highly overrated as to what they will contribute at the pro level.

[Ilikesports17]

So your point is that there's plenty of talent in the top 10, and that there's not a big difference between 1-10 in the 2017 draft.

I still don't get what Jaylen Brown has to do with that.

Also, who is considering him to be a tier 3/4 prospect? ESPN gave Brown a 96 rating out of HS. The same grade that Ingram, Lonzo Ball, and Markelle Fultz got.

Is the "some people are saying" line of thinking yours, or are there actual people that think he's a tier 3/4 player?

Jaylen Brown received tier 3 and 4 votes in Chas fords tiers survey of GMs.