Author Topic: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread  (Read 45238 times)

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Re: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread
« Reply #165 on: January 25, 2017, 05:29:06 PM »

Offline oldtype

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@oldtype How do we know that rebounding is particularly translatable from Europe to the NBA? Not that I disagree with what you are saying, but I'd love to see some relevant evidence.

There seems to be a consensus among modelers that rebounding is the stat that experiences the least degradation from Euroleague -> NBA transitions.

Quote

2009 model by John Hollinger shows that when transitioning from the EuroLeague to the NBA:


•Scoring rate decreases 25 percent
•Rebound rate increases by 18 percent
•Assist rate increases by 31 percent (note: NBA assist tallying rules are much more liberal than those in Europe.)
•Shooting percentage drops by 12 percent
•Overall, player efficiency rating drops by 30 percent


Quote
http://basketball-statistics.com/euroleaguenowincludedintheboxscorepredictionsystem.html

2010 model by John Nichols, who now runs analytics for the Cavaliers.  Rebounding by far has the highest predictive value of NBA performance out of any Euroleague stat:

FGA: 0.2971
FG%: 0.3004
3PA: 0.6834
3P%: 0.7729
FTA: 0.4111
FT%: 0.6887
REB: 0.8609
AST: 0.7202
STL: 0.5606
BLK: 0.7964
TO: 0.4538
PF: 0.5432



Great words from a great man

Re: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread
« Reply #166 on: January 25, 2017, 05:37:19 PM »

Offline oldtype

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Note: not to get people too excited or anything, but if we brute-force Zizic's Euroleague numbers into Hollinger's model, it projects him to average roughly 10.7 points and 14.2 rebounds per 36 minutes in the NBA.  He would put up these numbers on 55.7% shooting, which would put him in the top 10 of the entire NBA.

This, of course, does not take into account any potential improvement between this season and next.  Super-small sample size and all, but the numbers he's posting in the second-best league in the world are amazing.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2017, 06:14:51 PM by oldtype »


Great words from a great man

Re: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread
« Reply #167 on: January 25, 2017, 06:46:02 PM »

Offline greece66

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@oldtype

I would think the sample size can't be too big and it doesn't say how they take account of the disparity in the quality of Euroleague teams across time. I also see this is from 2009.

But Jon Nichols must have put quite a lot of effort into this. And it is indeed very encouraging for the future of Zizic at the C's

TP for sharing.

Re: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread
« Reply #168 on: January 25, 2017, 11:09:22 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Highlights from the game:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45uspqsfQ9c
he looks pretty good as an under the basket type player. i dont think he can make any shots further than 5 feet from the basket. but he might yet develop a mid range shot, who knows?

he is pretty fast for a center as well. but i really enjoyed watching how he boxes out opposing players.

he may turn out to be better than steve adams, at least offensively. that would be nice.

He's a good free throw shooter.

Re: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread
« Reply #169 on: January 27, 2017, 04:21:35 PM »

Offline The One

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https://youtu.be/zAo1CXl6GTg



16 pts and 18 rebs...this guy is "The Antidote" to "The Process"!!




Re: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread
« Reply #170 on: January 27, 2017, 04:24:52 PM »

Offline Chris22

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Za Za 2.0.

Re: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread
« Reply #171 on: January 27, 2017, 04:24:58 PM »

Offline GratefulCs

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I'M not counting on this, but imagine if zizic comes over and solves our rebounding issue for good

A man can dream..
I trust Danny Ainge

Re: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread
« Reply #172 on: January 27, 2017, 04:57:09 PM »

Offline greece66

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Za Za 2.0.

I like Pachulia, but I don't see what this comparison is based on.

Re: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread
« Reply #173 on: January 27, 2017, 05:11:48 PM »

Offline sdceltsfan

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Reminds me of David Lee when his nickname was "the double-double machine".

Re: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread
« Reply #174 on: January 27, 2017, 05:12:28 PM »

Offline fantankerous

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Za Za 2.0.

I like Pachulia, but I don't see what this comparison is based on.

I don't either.  However, if he is "only" Pachulia 2.0 that's great value from r the 23rd pick.

Re: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread
« Reply #175 on: January 27, 2017, 05:18:35 PM »

Offline oldtype

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Za Za 2.0.

I like Pachulia, but I don't see what this comparison is based on.

I think this is actually a semi-reasonable comp, given that they're both quick-footed roll-men with very good rebounding skills that have jump shots that look projectable but may or may not actually pan out (it didn't for Zaza.)  Zizic does look like he'd be a much better (but still not elite) rim protector.

During Zaza's age-20 season, he was averaging 6.2 points and 5.2 rebounds on ~18 minutes a game.  The season after, at age 21, he was starting every game and averaging 11.7 points and 7.9 rebounds on ~31 minutes.  I think we'd all be satisfied if Zizic could follow that trajectory.  (And hopefully not just peak at age 21 like Zaza did)







Great words from a great man

Re: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread
« Reply #176 on: January 27, 2017, 07:21:19 PM »

Offline greece66

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@oldtype

Thanks for taking the time to answer in detail and providing specific metrics for Zaza.

Point taken.

Since you touched on this issue, I write quickly my thoughts on Zizic and midrange shots. afaik Zizic takes no midrange jumpshots. I mean this in the most literal sense, there are whole games when he does not shoot outside the paint (see also Androslav's excellent post earlier in the thread). The reason people keep coming back to Zizic's midrange shot is his good FT% and a couple of shots he has made in the Euroleague.

Btw, if someone knows of a source that keeps of the distance from which players shoot in the Euroleague (and even better national leagues too), it would be very useful not only here but in discussions of non-US college prospects in general.

Re: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread
« Reply #177 on: January 27, 2017, 07:30:42 PM »

Offline The One

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Perhaps he could be as good as Steven Adams someday.

Re: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread
« Reply #178 on: January 27, 2017, 07:31:56 PM »

Offline chilidawg

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Za Za 2.0.

I like Pachulia, but I don't see what this comparison is based on.

Same number of Z's.  There is no better predictor of future success.

Re: Official Ante Zizic Darussafaka Thread
« Reply #179 on: January 27, 2017, 10:23:13 PM »

Offline greece66

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Za Za 2.0.

I like Pachulia, but I don't see what this comparison is based on.

Same number of Z's.  There is no better predictor of future success.

Hopefully Ante will become our Zhaquille O'Zeal.