Author Topic: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?  (Read 31345 times)

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Re: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?
« Reply #60 on: December 18, 2016, 04:36:06 AM »

Online jpotter33

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I would do any one of these three deals:

Boston sends
Amir Johnson + Marcus Smart + James Young
to
Milwaukee
for
Greg Monroe


Boston sends
Amir Johnson + Marcus Smart
to
Philadelphia
for
Nerlens Noel + $11.2M in cap savings


Boston sends
Amir Johnson + Marcus Smart
to
Philadelphia
for
Jahlil Okafor + $10.7M in cap savings

If any one of those deals is on the table, I'm taking it without a moment's hesitation.

Nobody would trade smart for Noel right now lol

Smart is a defensive role player with no jump shot, below average PG skills, a severe lack of discipline, and approximately zero upside. 

The sooner we accept that and move on, the better it will be for us all.
Below average point guard skills and 0 upside seem a bit harsh and trading Smart for Noel would be dumb.

In what way is it harsh?

He's in his third NBA season and has a career average of 3.3 assists per game and 2.3 Assists-Per-Turnover in 28 minutes.

Those numbers are well below par for an NBA PG, and are quite average even by combo guard standards. 

Jason Terry averaged 2.2 Assists Per Turnover for his career
Keeyon Dooling averaged 2 Assists Per Turnover for his career
JJ Reddick averaged 1.9 Assists Per Turnover for his career
Eddie House averaged 2 Assists Per Turnover for his career

Those guys aren't exactly hot shot playmakers.

Smart has decent court vision, which is offset by sub-par decision making ability and terrible ball handling skills.

As for his potential, this is Smart's third season in the league, and here's how his Per 36 stats have gone so far:

2014/15: 
10.4 pts, 4.4 reb, 4.1 ast, 2.0 stl, 0.4 blk, 1.8 to, 3.5 pf, 36.7% fg, 33.5% 3pt, 64.6% ft

2015/16:
12.1 Pts, 5.5 reb, 4.0 ast, 1.4 stl, 0.4 blk, 1.7 to, 4.0 pf, 34.8% FG, 25.3% 3pt, 77.7% ft

2016/17:
11.6 pts, 4.9 reb, 5.1 ast, 1.4 stl, 0.4 blk, 2.3 to, 2.7 pf, 37.2% FG, 27.6% 3pt, 64.0% ft

* His assist/TO are at a career low
* His advanced stats (RPM, etc) have gotten worse since his rookie year
* He's shown no desire to improve his shot selection (5.4 3PT attempts Per 36 @ 27.6%)
* He's shown no improvement at gettign to the basket (22.4% FTR is lowest of his career)
* He's shown no desire to tone down his rediculous flopping antics

The guy is a complete trainwreck.  The only things he has going for him are that he's an above average defensive player, and that he plays hard.  That's it.

He's going to be a Matt Barnes/Kendrick Perkins kind of player - one of those guys who will bounce around the league as a bench player who teams bring in to provide a bit of energy and toughness, at the expense of a bit of crazy and emotional instability.

He'll never be anything more then that.  He should cherish his role this year as a ~30 MPG player, because he'll probably never have a role that big again in his career....unless he gets traded to Philly.


Ha! Yeah, another completely biased analysis that ignores any hint of context. Let's totally ignore the fact that for his first two years he was never A) a primary ball-handler, or B) even a secondary ball-handler (always IT or Turner). He played almost entirely off the ball. But, oh my, look at those low assist numbers!  ::)

It seems to be a pretty common trend amongst the major Smart haters to ignore any semblance of context and interpret evidence to best fit their narrative.

And by the way, those bold sentences pretty much destroy any bit of credibility that your analysis has. Total craziness. It's just funny that he keeps getting playing time on such a good team with as bad as y'all make him out to be.

* In 2014/15 Smart spent 74% of his time at the PG spot and 26% at the SG spot
* In 2015/16 he spent 42% of his time at the PG spot and 57% at the SG spot
* In 2016/17 he's spent 16% at the PG spot and 80% at the SG spot

His assist numbers in his first year (where he spent 75% of his time at PG) were not significantly better then they were in his second year (where he spent 42% of his time at PG) which in turn were not significantly better then his third year (where he's spent only 16% of his time at the PG spot).

Smart's percentage of time at the PG spot has gone down significantly every year, and why?  Because he doesn't have PG skills. 

His rookie year he played PG because there was no choice - we didn't have another passable PG. 

His second year he started much of the season at PG, until Brad discovered that we were playing like garbage and started Thomas over him - at which point we started winning games. Shock, that. 

His third year he's barely played PG because by now everybody in the Celtics organisation has discovered that he lacks the skills to ever be a full time PG.

Smart has played about 108 minutes at the PG spot this year.  Terry Rozier has played a total of about 382 minutes at the PG spot this year.  Your logic above was that Smart is playing 30 MPG because he is a good player - better player means more minutes.  Well Terry Rozier is playing almost 4x as many minutes at the PG spot as Smart is so, based on your logic, what does that say about Smart's ability to play the PG spot?

Also how many minutes Smart played at which guard position is irrelevant when analysing his assist-to-turnover ratio.  Playing off guard more should mean he has the ball in his hands less.  This should mean less assists, but should also mean less turnovers.  Yet Smart's turnover average (1.9 per game) this season is, by far, the highest of his career. 

As I said, the guy has pretty decent court vision, but he's a terrible decision maker and is a poor ball handler.  These are facts, and they are weaknesses of his that have been well documented ever since his college days - look up his draftexpress videos if you don't believe me.

Again - your personal bias is blinding you.

If Marcus Smart was averaging 10 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists in 30 minutes (while shooting 37%/28%/64%) on ANY other team...and somebody proposed we make a trade to bring him here...I can all but guarantee that you would absolutely hate the idea with a passion.

Guys defend Smart because he wears a Celtics uniform, but if he was in any other jersey you would all say that he's a scrub.

Who here talk about Elfrid Payton, for example?  He's a significantly better PG then Smart is and nobody here says a word about him.

I'm not really looking to get into another one of these arguments with you, because A) you seemingly don't understand how context works in basketball,  B) your posts are full of inaccuracies, and D) it's not going to change any of our minds anyways. I just wanted to call out your biased post that was pretty rife with inaccuracies and stats without context.

But I do feel like I should call out some of these inaccuracies and misinterpretations that you're using to try and stop this from spreading any further. For example, you're posting his percentage of time played at "PG" and "SG" across his time in the league. That's all fine and dandy, but if you actually watched the games, which is seeming more and more unlikely every post, then you'd know that him being the "PG" has no bearing whatsoever on my argument.

Just because he was labeled the "PG" in some stat did not make him the "ball-handler," which is the important thing regarding these stats and my argument. He almost always played with ET or IT, who were the main ball handlers. This was clear to anyone who watched the actual games. And contrary to your false opinion and the "stats" above, he's handled the ball much more this year than any other year. It's clear those numbers are completely off from when he was actually acting as the "ball-handler" and true "PG" of the unit, which should've been apparent to you if you actually watched the game. I swear some of you literally must not watch games and entirely form opinions off of box scores and statistics, because these arguments obviously don't make sense with the context you get from actually watching the game.

And just to briefly point out some more inaccuracies in your posts:

1) "How many flopping fines does he have?" or as you put it in the other thread - he has a "disturbing tenancy to rack up flopping fines"

In reality, he has just one against the Hawks last year in the playoffs. So this "disturbing tendency to rack up flopping fines" is all in your head.

2) "His second year he started much of the season at PG, until Brad discovered that we were playing like garbage and started Thomas over him - at which point we started winning games. Shock, that."

Once again, completely wrong. Smart started the first three games, twisted his ankle, and was out for three games, so IT started in his place naturally. Smart just continued coming off of the bench after that. So, no, sorry to rain on your parade, but Smart's injury caused the switch not Brad just yanking him because we were "playing like garbage." We were 1-2 at that point with close losses to Toronto and San Antonio - really sounds like playing like garbage to me  ::)

So, yeah, you need to actually watch the games and not rely so heavily on stats, because your analysis is pretty skewed in several regards. Virtually everything you put up there as evidence was flawed or misinterpreted in some way, especially your analysis of the entire Smart PG situation, which is actually the exact opposite of what you claim.

To further prove this, look at his AST% by year - 16.3, 15.8, 20.6, which corresponds quite nicely with how much he handled the ball each year and why his increased ball-handling this year has led to an increased AST%. So either A) he significantly improved in that regard, or B) he's actually getting more ball-handling duties than before (clearly this) - either way, it disproves your false narrative that you're trying to create.

It's funny that you didn't include those stats in the first place; perhaps could it be that they went against your entire narrative?  ;)

Re: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?
« Reply #61 on: December 18, 2016, 04:42:33 AM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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Smart lost his starting job in 15 cus he got injured and Isaiah was better. He wasn't benched.

Smart is not a stud. I think he's a high level role-player you think he's a low level one. You seem to believe his intangibles have a negative impact on the team. I think they have a massive positive impact. I think he does a nice job initiating the offense.

I think he's more valuable to us than any other team.

If Smart was putting up his stats for any other team I'd think he wasn't good at all, but I've watched nearly every game of his pro career and seen him make countless winning plays. He's a gamer and a team leader.

right now Noel has a lot of strikes against him and we shouldn't have to give up a player of value for him.

Smart is a very good defensive player and is a team leader and is cheap for the next year and a half. No reason to rush him out the door for a big man who should be basically free at the moment.
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?
« Reply #62 on: December 18, 2016, 07:30:22 AM »

Offline NHCelticsFan

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I would not trade Smart for Noel.  Despite his poor offensive numbers Marcus just seems to play winning basketball.  He gives the team a toughness that is needed and has become a much improved ball handler and passer.  He still has a lot of room to improve, but is also only 22 years old.

Noel is a good example of a buy low candidate.  Start the offer low and go from there.  Philly has a problem on their hands with too many bigs and not enough playing time, and now Noel seems to be souring on his role.  They need to make a move and don't exactly have the upper hand.

Re: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?
« Reply #63 on: December 18, 2016, 08:19:59 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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You cant judge Smart as a PG when he has basically been playing SG and SF since he got here. Even this year, when he and IT or he and Rozier are in the game together Smart is not playing PG. He is simply not initiating the offense or handling the ball as the primary playmaker. Using assists to judge his ability to play point is useless. Judge those stats versus SGs and then you will have something

Re: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?
« Reply #64 on: December 18, 2016, 08:32:11 AM »

Offline Sketch5

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You cant judge Smart as a PG when he has basically been playing SG and SF since he got here. Even this year, when he and IT or he and Rozier are in the game together Smart is not playing PG. He is simply not initiating the offense or handling the ball as the primary playmaker. Using assists to judge his ability to play point is useless. Judge those stats versus SGs and then you will have something

Exactly.

He gets the ball moving in the offense as well, if not better than every one on the team. People are too use to Rondo pounding the ball to get his STAT assists and they think thats how it is.

Smarts ball handling has looked really good this year, and his passing has been really nice. He's made some tough passes this season.

A ton of people are in love with Rozier because he can score, and play good D. While Smart doesn't shoot it as well, he flows with the offense most times better, and the thin he does better is guard 1-3, and sometime even 4. Rozier can guard 1 and small 2's And in the playoffs when it's needed, that will be huge. And for what ever reason, when needed Smart hits big shots down the stretch on the most part. It's like he get locked in when needed.

I wouldn't give up Smart straight up for Noel. Not when you can get him next year with out a trade. I'd be fine with Rozier and Young for Noel.

Re: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?
« Reply #65 on: December 18, 2016, 08:52:08 AM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Sixers fans would be out for Colangelo's blood if all he could get for Noel is Smart.  Noel could end up being our starting center for the next decade.  Smart would be a lousy fit with Simmons.  They'd be better off doing the Crabbe deal even though I hate his contract.  If they are going to make a bad trade, I highly doubt it will be with us.

Re: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?
« Reply #66 on: December 18, 2016, 09:01:57 AM »

Online jpotter33

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Sixers fans would be out for Colangelo's blood if all he could get for Noel is Smart.  Noel could end up being our starting center for the next decade.  Smart would be a lousy fit with Simmons.  They'd be better off doing the Crabbe deal even though I hate his contract.  If they are going to make a bad trade, I highly doubt it will be with us.

While I disagree with the trade value you're giving Noel, I agree that I don't think they would have interest in Smart. Just doesn't fit their needs. Smart is most valuable to a better team where he can focus on the things that he excels in - defense, initiating the offense/moving the ball, getting rebounds, etc.

I think Rozier will clearly be the guy if we do trade for Noel, along with one of our lesser picks. He could really help them right now and be a competent starter for them for awhile.

Re: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?
« Reply #67 on: December 18, 2016, 09:51:02 AM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Sixers fans would be out for Colangelo's blood if all he could get for Noel is Smart.  Noel could end up being our starting center for the next decade.  Smart would be a lousy fit with Simmons.  They'd be better off doing the Crabbe deal even though I hate his contract.  If they are going to make a bad trade, I highly doubt it will be with us.

While I disagree with the trade value you're giving Noel, I agree that I don't think they would have interest in Smart. Just doesn't fit their needs. Smart is most valuable to a better team where he can focus on the things that he excels in - defense, initiating the offense/moving the ball, getting rebounds, etc.

I think Rozier will clearly be the guy if we do trade for Noel, along with one of our lesser picks. He could really help them right now and be a competent starter for them for awhile.
I didn't give Noel a specific trade value.  I just don't think Smart holds that much trade value around the league and especially not to the Sixers.  Plus trading Noel to us would be a significant negative.  If you're going to make a bad trade do it out of your division and hopefully conference. 

Rozier would be a better fit for them and still has a couple years on his rookie contract.  However with two top 10 picks they're most likely going to get their starting PG from this draft.  I've said before that Rozier and the Memphis 1st would be a reasonable offer but that I'd wait towards the trade deadline to see if I could get a better offer.  The Blazers and Pelicans are two teams that should be interested in Noel and won't have the cap space to get him in free agency. 

Re: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?
« Reply #68 on: December 18, 2016, 05:01:10 PM »

Online jpotter33

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And the plot thickens:

https://twitter.com/BobCooney76/status/810600581467344896

Brown says Noel is out of the rotation for the foreseeable future.

I would guess that that means either A) there's a trade in place that they're waiting on, or B) his camp has privately made a trade demand. I'm guessing it's the latter and the Sixers are now actively looking to get a deal done and want to keep him healthy for now.

Re: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?
« Reply #69 on: December 18, 2016, 05:02:00 PM »

Offline Endless Paradise

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I mean, he and his camp have all but made public trade demands over the last few months, lol.

Last night was just Noel's 1st 2nd game back but I thought Brett Brown bungled the situation.  In the 1st half Noel played 2 four minute stretches without Embiid or Noel which wasn't bad.  In the 2nd half, Noel didn't play at all even though there was a 4 or 5 minute stretch where Embiid and Okafor weren't on the floor. 

Having their 3 bigs isn't optimal but it doesn't take rocket science to work out a decent rotation where Embiid gets 28min and Okafor and Noel get at least 20min each.  At least one of their bigs should be on the court at all times.  Illyasova should not be getting 27 minutes when all three of their bigs are available.  The Noel/Embiid combo needs to be used quite a bit as it projects to be their best big combo.  Okafor/Embiid should be used too.  I would avoid playing the Okafor/Noel combo.

You're saying this like Ilyasova isn't by far the best floor spacer they have among their bigs. Embiid/Okafor shouldn't be played more; it's a bad combination.

This situation isn't Brown's fault by any means; he doesn't have an optimal big rotation. One of the three bigs has to go. It simply isn't tenable to keep all three and there's no use in pretending that it can work.
Who said anything about keeping all three?  The point is they have all three of them now so Brown needs to do a better job getting them all playing time.  They need Noel playing 20min+ so they can get a reasonable return for him before the deadline.  There is no excuse for having a 4 minute period with Embiid, Okafor and Noel all on the bench.  There is no excuse for not trying out the Noel/Embiid combo.  Embiid/Okafor is better than Illyasova/Okafor.

They play like trash together. Brown can "do a better job" of getting them all playing time, but it's not going to help the team. His concern is with trying to help the team win games, not appease individual players by playing them as often as they feel they should be played.

Re: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?
« Reply #70 on: December 18, 2016, 05:02:59 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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My prediction is hes traded to the Wolves. Min y needs front court help and could have alot of pieces that could entice philly (Muhammed, Lavine, Dunn, Rubio)



 They are not trading Dunn and certainly not Lavine for Noel.

 Still think Minnesota trade for him?

Re: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?
« Reply #71 on: December 18, 2016, 05:04:03 PM »

Online sahara

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And the plot thickens:

https://twitter.com/BobCooney76/status/810600581467344896

Brown says Noel is out of the rotation for the foreseeable future.

I would guess that that means either A) there's a trade in place that they're waiting on, or B) his camp has privately made a trade demand. I'm guessing it's the latter and the Sixers are now actively looking to get a deal done and want to keep him healthy for now.

Give them Zeller and some picks, I mean a Celtic fan needs to play for the Celtics  8)

Re: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?
« Reply #72 on: December 18, 2016, 05:04:42 PM »

Online jpotter33

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Supposedly Brown says Noel being out of the rotation has nothing to do with his comments Friday.

https://twitter.com/marczumoff/status/810605179821236224

Re: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?
« Reply #73 on: December 18, 2016, 05:12:59 PM »

Online jpotter33

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I mean, he and his camp have all but made public trade demands over the last few months, lol.

Last night was just Noel's 1st 2nd game back but I thought Brett Brown bungled the situation.  In the 1st half Noel played 2 four minute stretches without Embiid or Noel which wasn't bad.  In the 2nd half, Noel didn't play at all even though there was a 4 or 5 minute stretch where Embiid and Okafor weren't on the floor. 

Having their 3 bigs isn't optimal but it doesn't take rocket science to work out a decent rotation where Embiid gets 28min and Okafor and Noel get at least 20min each.  At least one of their bigs should be on the court at all times.  Illyasova should not be getting 27 minutes when all three of their bigs are available.  The Noel/Embiid combo needs to be used quite a bit as it projects to be their best big combo.  Okafor/Embiid should be used too.  I would avoid playing the Okafor/Noel combo.

You're saying this like Ilyasova isn't by far the best floor spacer they have among their bigs. Embiid/Okafor shouldn't be played more; it's a bad combination.

This situation isn't Brown's fault by any means; he doesn't have an optimal big rotation. One of the three bigs has to go. It simply isn't tenable to keep all three and there's no use in pretending that it can work.
Who said anything about keeping all three?  The point is they have all three of them now so Brown needs to do a better job getting them all playing time.  They need Noel playing 20min+ so they can get a reasonable return for him before the deadline.  There is no excuse for having a 4 minute period with Embiid, Okafor and Noel all on the bench.  There is no excuse for not trying out the Noel/Embiid combo.  Embiid/Okafor is better than Illyasova/Okafor.

They play like trash together. Brown can "do a better job" of getting them all playing time, but it's not going to help the team. His concern is with trying to help the team win games, not appease individual players by playing them as often as they feel they should be played.

That entire organization is a mess right now, and it's all directly a result of "the process." And Brown is somewhat guilty, too, though it was obviously management that put him in this situation to begin with.

There's been at least a dozen posters here who have called this from the start. You simply can't draft three starting-caliber centers consecutively who aren't versatile in their playing positions and expect to truly develop them.

This whole Embiid/Okafor pairing seems fishy, though, and it seems like it's coming from management rather than Brown. Why would they even try that when Simmons seemingly has the 4 spot locked up already? Do they expect to play Simmons at the 3 or what?

Re: Noel Frustration: Celtics trade coming?
« Reply #74 on: December 18, 2016, 05:23:17 PM »

Offline MBunge

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Supposedly Brown says Noel being out of the rotation has nothing to do with his comments Friday.

https://twitter.com/marczumoff/status/810605179821236224

If he were hurt, they'd just say he was hurt.  Ditto for suspended.  But why would you announce this at all before the game?

Mike