Old players and the new CBA

[celticsclay]

With the new CBA talk there was an article on ESPN talking about how Lebron and Chris Paul can now make more money as an older player because there can be longer contracts extended to older players (I believe it is now 38 instead of 36 when they can still get 5 year extensions). This kind of got me wondering if people really thought about where Lebron and Paul were in their careers and how much they left left. Both Lebron and Paul turn 32 pretty soon. (also please correct me if these are off by a year I am doing it fast based on the numbers in basketball reference and memory). Lebron has obviously had amazing health whereas Paul has started to have more injuries concerns leaving the playoffs last year and having multiple seasons where he has missed 20+ games so far.


In Paul Pierce's 32 year season the Celtics made it to the finals. He declined a bit after that making two more all star games (and the last one was probably a bit of a legacy pick).

KG did a little better making 3 all star games after 32 including one at 36. Similar to Pierce his last all star game may have been a bit of a stretch because he averaged 14.8 pts and 7 rebounds that year.

Kobe Bryant had 2 more all star games after 32 but was done as a legit star after 34 (2 injury filled seasons and last year).

Ray Allen made 2 all star games after 32. His last season averaging more than 15 points was at 35

Wade is turning 35 this season and is still humming along at 19 points a game. It is hard to imagine him really being a star player after this season and he is clearly no longer a superstar.

A bit further back. Charles Barkley played in his last all star game at 32 and last made it over 50 games at age 33.

Karl Malone, one of the greatest iron men of all time, bucked the trend and was a star all the way through 39.

Jordan of course retired at age 34.

Stockton was incredibly effective at an advanced age averaging 13 and 8 at age 39.

Isiah Thomas retired after being 32



I can add in a few more players here when I have a moment. I would say that the only players that are bad comparisons are players that never took care of themselves (Eg Shawn Kemp), players that were very tall and did not need as much athleticism (Kareem, Parish Duncan) or players that were plagued by injuries throughout their career or other health conditions(Magic, Bird, Mcgrady, Grant Hill etc). While I acknowledge there are a lot of things that make things easier for the players of today (5 star hotels, private planes, attention to minutes, medical and nutritional improvements) there are also probably bigger and faster players than ever before making the time playing even more physically demanding.

What do you think of the idea of people still being superstars at 37 years old?

[PhoSita]

I think LeBron is really hard to project because we've never seen anybody like him, physically.

(He's probably also the most successful PED athlete ever ....)

I'm just not sure when to expect him to decline.  Heck, he hasn't even had any lingering injuries yet in his career.

Who is he most similar to historically?  Malone?  Malone was really good for ages and ages, and he didn't have anything like LeBron's skillset.  Malone had 11 WS and played 82 games at age 39.


As for CP3, I wouldn't be surprised if he plays a while longer, but within the next couple years falls off to the point where he's just a really excellent floor general.  I'd be really surprised if he's playing at a high level beyond his 36th birthday, though. 

It's difficult to find much historical precedent for star players around 6'0 or 6'1'' playing at a high level well into their late 30's.  Stockton did it, I suppose, but he was on the bigger side.

[celticsclay]

I think LeBron is really hard to project because we've never seen anybody like him, physically.

(He's probably also the most successful PED athlete ever ....)

I'm just not sure when to expect him to decline.  Heck, he hasn't even had any lingering injuries yet in his career.

Who is he most similar to historically?  Malone?  Malone was really good for ages and ages, and he didn't have anything like LeBron's skillset.  Malone had 11 WS and played 82 games at age 39.


As for CP3, I wouldn't be surprised if he plays a while longer, but within the next couple years falls off to the point where he's just a really excellent floor general.  I'd be really surprised if he's playing at a high level beyond his 36th birthday, though. 

It's difficult to find much historical precedent for star players around 6'0 or 6'1'' playing at a high level well into their late 30's.  Stockton did it, I suppose, but he was on the bigger side.

I think LeBron is really hard to project because we've never seen anybody like him, physically.

(He's probably also the most successful PED athlete ever ....)

I'm just not sure when to expect him to decline.  Heck, he hasn't even had any lingering injuries yet in his career.

Who is he most similar to historically?  Malone?  Malone was really good for ages and ages, and he didn't have anything like LeBron's skillset.  Malone had 11 WS and played 82 games at age 39.


As for CP3, I wouldn't be surprised if he plays a while longer, but within the next couple years falls off to the point where he's just a really excellent floor general.  I'd be really surprised if he's playing at a high level beyond his 36th birthday, though. 

It's difficult to find much historical precedent for star players around 6'0 or 6'1'' playing at a high level well into their late 30's.  Stockton did it, I suppose, but he was on the bigger side.

Yeah Lebron is definitely hard to predict and it is a bit harder for me to remember how much Malone relied on Athleticism versus pure strength. My inclination is that Lebron probably relies on athleticism a bit more than Malone did.

Related to Paul, what about Gary Payton? He was really good through age 34, but by the time he was 36 he was in Boston (and as we remember, not a star then).

I think it is interesting to think about because these eras kind of end pretty quickly. The 2011 all star game roster included Ming, Dirk, Duncan, Ginobli, Rondo, Pierce, Amare, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, Bosh, Gasol, Rose . Kobe

Half those guys are completely out of the league while the other half have one foot out the door.

It if course included the usual superstars in Durant, Griffin, Lebron, Paul and Carmelo etc. However, now this year those guys are in the first group from the 2011 game.