Utah says no. Boston probably says yes.
Yep. Taking contracts out of it, I don't even know if Utah would trade Hill straight up for Thomas given he is a vastly superior defensive player and a more efficient offensive player (though with lesser volume).
George Hill has played only 11 games this year and has gotten off to a red hot start shooting WAY WAY above his career averages:
He's currently sporting a 45.6% 3PT% ... compared to a career 37.9%.
He's currently got a 53.4% overall FG% ... compared to a career 45.2%
This is, as a consequence, inflating his scoring efficiency to an absurd .667 TS ... compared to a career rate of .565.
How sustainable do you really believe that to be?
Isaiah is posting the same rock-solid ~.574 TS scoring efficiency that he has delivered year-in-and-year-out (even while sustaining much higher USG). He also blows Hill away when it comes to delivering assists.
If you truly believe Hill can maintain his current hot shooting going forward, then sure. He's more efficient.
Me? I'd put my money on Isaiah continuing over the long haul to be the far, far superior player of the two.
AND ... of course, contracts matter and that advantage goes to IT.
Is Hill a vastly superior defender?
Arguable. Possibly. Defensive metrics are, of course, never very clear cut.
I would submit that he is probably a "superior defender". I would also submit that Thomas is clearly, far and away a vastly superior offensive player.
And in the modern NBA, frankly the latter is far and away more important for guards. The NBA rules simply make that the case. With no hand-checking and the heavy reliance on the three-point line, this is right now the era of penetrating guards who are borderline impossible to stop.
Right now, the marginal value of an elite offensive guard far outstrips the marginal value of an elite defensive guard.
We just had our 'elite defensive guards' of Bradley and Smart tasked with trying to slow down Lowry and Westbrook. And they posted 34 and 37 points. Ancient 34 year old Tony Parker, averaging just 9.9 points on the season just scored 16 on 8 of 15 shooting in just 25 minutes. No blaming of Thomas for a change.
Hill has a higher career 2PT and 3PT percentage and a result has a higher eFG% at 52% vs. 50.4% for Thomas. Thomas gets to the line a lot more and as such has a higher career TS% at 57.2% v. 56.5%. Thomas has hand on the ball a lot more, especially throughout their careers and thus has a much higher Usage Rate, though does end up with more shots, more assists, more turnovers, etc. Thomas has a higher AST% as well but also a higher TOV% and lower RB%, STL%, and BLK%. Prior to this season each had a career best PER of 21.5 (Hill currently has a slightly higher PER than Thomas this year, which is both their career best season), though Thomas has consistently had a larger offensive role than Hill and thus has a better career PER. Thomas has a career BPM of 1.8 and VORP of 11 (1.833 per year). Hill exceeds both with a career BPM of 2 and VORP of 16.6 (1.844 per year).
No, you can't brush aside the importance of being able to carry a 25%+ USG and STILL post a consistent TS of .570+. That is not only very difficult to do, it is extremely valuable. Thomas has had a consistently larger role on offense because his Coaches know he will deliver. He is one of the most consistent point creators (scoring and assists) over the last few years and his efficiency has held up despite heavy USG. Most players drop in efficiency as their USG goes up because heavier USG means they are taking more and more shots out of their comfort zone. More shots from different parts of the floor. More shots that are tightly contested. Isaiah has proven he can take those shots and still generate points efficiently. Most players simply can't.
Hill has never had a season where he's cracked 24% USG. IT has been used at rates of 26.3%, 27.8%, 29.6% and 33.4% the last four seasons. All through that, his scoring efficiency has remained excellent. And during that time, he's also posted AST% rates of 32.2%, 27.2%, 32.7% and now 32.6%. Hill has posted an AST% rate over 30 just once (31.4% two years ago) and otherwise never above 23.4%. And most of his seasons it has been down in the teens.
Setting aside the fact that Thomas is clearly and inarguably a more efficient _scorer_, don't confuse the overall eFG% numbers as being any definitive indication that Hill is a better _shooter_ either. The fact is, Thomas, by virtue of his role, has to take a far heavier share of shots under tight contention by defenders. Let's look at their 3PT shooting data from last year, 2015-16,(to get a decent sample):
Overall, Hill shot 40.8% on threes (314 attempts) last year compared to just 35.9% for Isaiah (465 attempts). That makes it look like Hill was a vastly better 3PT shooter than IT, right? Let's look closer at shots taken under different defensive coverage:
Wide Open (Defender at least 6 feet away)
Hill took 134 (42.7%) of his threes as 'wide open' and hit 44.8% of them.
Thomas got only 78 (16.8%) of his threes as 'wide open' but still hit 43.6% of them.
Open (Defender 4-6 ft away)
Hill got another 135 (43.0%) of his threes as 'open' and hit them at a 39.3% clip.
Thomas got just 184 (39.6%) of his threes as "open" and hit 38.6% of them.
Tight Covered (Defender 2-4 ft away)
Hill took only 41 (13.1%) of his threes as "tightly covered". He hit them at a 29.3% rate.
Thomas took 187 (40.2%) of his threes while "tightly covered" and hit them at a 31.0% rate.
So, when you account for coverage, suddenly you can see that Hill didn't really shoot any better than Isaiah. At each level of coverage, their numbers are statistically the same.
The difference is, because of the heavy attention defenses pay to Isaiah, he had far fewer 'wide open' shots and far more 'tightly covered' shots.
The value of a guy like Thomas is that he is able to convert that defensive attention into an advantage both by drawing fouls (resulting in FTAs) and in getting open looks for his teammates (assists) and thus maintain a high overall point-creation efficiency despite the heavy defensive attention.
Hill hasn't posted a FTr (FTA/FGA ratio) of over .300 since the 2011-12 season. Isaiah has never posted an FTr rate _below_ .324 in his career! His career rate is .386. Getting to the FT line on a consistent basis is an extremely, extremely valuable skill in the NBA and you simply can't drop random players into that role and expect to get the same result.
When you actually account for defense and take a closer look at the offensive numbers, it paints a slightly different picture. And here is the thing, Utah doesn't need a ball dominant offensive oriented PG like Thomas. They need a defensive stalwart that is an efficient shooter. That is Hill, not Thomas. And I clearly said taking contracts out of it because Thomas has a far superior contract making him more valuable.
Don't really care what UTAH needs or not. I know what the Celtics offense needs and they don't need George Hill as a replacement for Thomas.
Topic: IT4 For Hood & Hill: who says no? (Read 8023 times)