WOJ mini-Bomb: Noel's stock drops

[tazzmaniac]

Is Noel even good? We've only seen flashes. Time is ticking. Same for Okafor.

Philly's problem may not be crowded talent, but just an overall lack of it. Noel and Okafor may only be bench players from what we've seen so maybe we should value them like bench players and Philly shouldn't act like their giving up starting level talent for a discount. This is basically what some predicted back at the draft. Their value would only go down and it has.

Interesting point. And if accurate it bodes very poorly for hinkies approach to a rebuild.

Not really.  Hinkie's approach was to maximize the quality and quantity of picks because you can't count on a particular pick or draft for success.  They have Embiid and Simmons to build around regardless of how well Okafor and Noel turn out or what they trade them for.  They have the Laker 17/18 1st and the Kings 19 1st in addition to their 1sts over the next 3 years.  They also have maintained great cap space.  Maximizing opportunities while maintaining flexibility is the best approach to a rebuild. 

[walker834]

Noel isn't getting a max contract.   These mini rumors ie Minny change daily.  Injury wise it more just seems like he is in a bad situation.  Even if he's camby 2.0 camby was a good player for certain years.  If his stock has lowered that's good.

We could still use a guy who can swat shots and is mobile.  I still doubt philly trades him to us without asking for more than the usual. 

I still think Ainge will shoot for more.  Ainge is in all or draft mode.  He's going to try to get a star.

I have no issues with Nerlens as a player.  He's a good player and fits a need for us. Whether he is the guy is something else.

If by Camby 2.0 you mean twice the player Camby was that is pretty laughable based on what Noel has shown so far. Camby averaged 15 points, 6 rebounds and a block and 2 blocks as a rookie. By his second season he was up to 3.5 blocks a game. Camby did deal with injuries that stopped him from fully blossoming (which he may have in common with Noel), however, don't undersell Camby. He averaged double digit rebounds 11 times (peaking at 13). I don't think Noel will ever average 10 rebounds for a season.

Not underselling Camby at all. Camby was good and I kind of doubt Noel will have the same injury issues.  I think Noel is good. Obviously different players and give or take on certain things but I would compare them.

Some people seem to think Noel sucks.  I don't think so.  He's probably not Bill Russell or a star but I would compare him to someone like Camby.   He's more comparable to him than Laetner(more offensive) who didn't really live up to his college hype either but still good nba players.

Those 2 guys were really prime college players that had issues in the pros with consistency but put up big numbers at times.  I think Noel is comparable to Camby but might not have the upside but will be more consistant.

The injury concerns don't really bother me. 

[walker834]

Noel is a mobile big who can block shots and do a variety of things. It's really that simple with him.  We could use that. We could even use Christian Laetner over Zeller and KO right now.  These guys are not the right pieces on this team.

For peple that don't understand the fascination with Noel it basically is that.  We need more athletic mobile big men who can defend.

[Big333223]

This is all not a surprise but a good indication for the Celtics, nonetheless. Even if the C's don't make a deal for Noel, specifically, a cooling market for centers is a good news for a team in need of help around the basket.

And I would still try to make a move for Noel. If his stock is really dropping like that, maybe Noel could get got for something like Young, Mickey, and a 2nd rounder.

[SHAQATTACK]

This is obvious.

He has almost zero offensive ability.  Once he loses his bounce his career will take a nose-dive.

Probably true...

Butttttttt..........Amir has already lost any bounce he brought to Boston......no gas left in tank.......Noel would give us a younger version of Amir

[hwangjini_1]

Is Noel even good? We've only seen flashes. Time is ticking. Same for Okafor.

Philly's problem may not be crowded talent, but just an overall lack of it. Noel and Okafor may only be bench players from what we've seen so maybe we should value them like bench players and Philly shouldn't act like their giving up starting level talent for a discount. This is basically what some predicted back at the draft. Their value would only go down and it has.

Interesting point. And if accurate it bodes very poorly for hinkies approach to a rebuild.

Not really.  Hinkie's approach was to maximize the quality and quantity of picks because you can't count on a particular pick or draft for success.  They have Embiid and Simmons to build around regardless of how well Okafor and Noel turn out or what they trade them for.  They have the Laker 17/18 1st and the Kings 19 1st in addition to their 1sts over the next 3 years.  They also have maintained great cap space.  Maximizing opportunities while maintaining flexibility is the best approach to a rebuild.

But then all your eggs are in one draft basket, which is dangerous. Minnesota has how many top draft picks now?

Lest wait. Really, lets wait for 4 years and see. 

[gift]

Is Noel even good? We've only seen flashes. Time is ticking. Same for Okafor.

Philly's problem may not be crowded talent, but just an overall lack of it. Noel and Okafor may only be bench players from what we've seen so maybe we should value them like bench players and Philly shouldn't act like their giving up starting level talent for a discount. This is basically what some predicted back at the draft. Their value would only go down and it has.

Interesting point. And if accurate it bodes very poorly for hinkies approach to a rebuild.

Not really.  Hinkie's approach was to maximize the quality and quantity of picks because you can't count on a particular pick or draft for success.  They have Embiid and Simmons to build around regardless of how well Okafor and Noel turn out or what they trade them for.  They have the Laker 17/18 1st and the Kings 19 1st in addition to their 1sts over the next 3 years.  They also have maintained great cap space.  Maximizing opportunities while maintaining flexibility is the best approach to a rebuild.

But then all your eggs are in one draft basket, which is dangerous. Minnesota has how many top draft picks now?

Lest wait. Really, lets wait for 4 years and see. 

I see the fact that Noel and Okafor might not pan out as a reason why Hinkie had the strategy he did. In the past some teams may have tanked for a year or two and ended up with a couple high picks like Noel and Okafor, who might prove not to be worth tanking for. So Hinkie's strategy was to acquire as many high picks as possible so even though you may end up with a Noel, you also get an Embiid.

It's not that Hinkie's strategy doesn't work. I don't think there's a valid argument against it's concept. The question is whether the Hinkie process is worth the cost. And the cost turns out to be more than just wins and losses and dates on a calendar. It's the psychological wear and tear, the perception of and pressure on relationships within the team and around the league etc. It may be a larger cost than anticipated and requires more investment each year.

It still may be worth it. You tank for cornerstone guys and if you get one or two of them, it's worth it. They have Embiid who looks absolutely worth it if he can stay healthy. And maybe Simmons. They have another high pick coming this year. If they end up with even two legit stars, it doesn't matter who else comes and goes.

Ironically, this was all about "the process" and will ultimately be judged by "the result". Like you said, we'll wait and see.

[Moranis]

Is Noel even good? We've only seen flashes. Time is ticking. Same for Okafor.

Philly's problem may not be crowded talent, but just an overall lack of it. Noel and Okafor may only be bench players from what we've seen so maybe we should value them like bench players and Philly shouldn't act like their giving up starting level talent for a discount. This is basically what some predicted back at the draft. Their value would only go down and it has.

Interesting point. And if accurate it bodes very poorly for hinkies approach to a rebuild.

Not really.  Hinkie's approach was to maximize the quality and quantity of picks because you can't count on a particular pick or draft for success.  They have Embiid and Simmons to build around regardless of how well Okafor and Noel turn out or what they trade them for.  They have the Laker 17/18 1st and the Kings 19 1st in addition to their 1sts over the next 3 years.  They also have maintained great cap space.  Maximizing opportunities while maintaining flexibility is the best approach to a rebuild.

But then all your eggs are in one draft basket, which is dangerous. Minnesota has how many top draft picks now?

Lest wait. Really, lets wait for 4 years and see. 

I see the fact that Noel and Okafor might not pan out as a reason why Hinkie had the strategy he did. In the past some teams may have tanked for a year or two and ended up with a couple high picks like Noel and Okafor, who might prove not to be worth tanking for. So Hinkie's strategy was to acquire as many high picks as possible so even though you may end up with a Noel, you also get an Embiid.

It's not that Hinkie's strategy doesn't work. I don't think there's a valid argument against it's concept. The question is whether the Hinkie process is worth the cost. And the cost turns out to be more than just wins and losses and dates on a calendar. It's the psychological wear and tear, the perception of and pressure on relationships within the team and around the league etc. It may be a larger cost than anticipated and requires more investment each year.

It still may be worth it. You tank for cornerstone guys and if you get one or two of them, it's worth it. They have Embiid who looks absolutely worth it if he can stay healthy. And maybe Simmons. They have another high pick coming this year. If they end up with even two legit stars, it doesn't matter who else comes and goes.

Ironically, this was all about "the process" and will ultimately be judged by "the result". Like you said, we'll wait and see.

I think the cost is different with a different type of guy running the show.  Hinkie appears to have no interpersonal skills at all.  You put a more likeable friendly guy who understands people better in that same situation, and I don't think the perception turns out the same way because that guy would have thought of those issues and managed it better.  That guy would have signed a few more veterans for not just perception but guidance for the young guys that wouldn't have affected the win total (a few more Elton Brand type players). 

[MBunge]

Is Noel even good? We've only seen flashes. Time is ticking. Same for Okafor.

Philly's problem may not be crowded talent, but just an overall lack of it. Noel and Okafor may only be bench players from what we've seen so maybe we should value them like bench players and Philly shouldn't act like their giving up starting level talent for a discount. This is basically what some predicted back at the draft. Their value would only go down and it has.

Interesting point. And if accurate it bodes very poorly for hinkies approach to a rebuild.

Not really.  Hinkie's approach was to maximize the quality and quantity of picks because you can't count on a particular pick or draft for success.  They have Embiid and Simmons to build around regardless of how well Okafor and Noel turn out or what they trade them for.  They have the Laker 17/18 1st and the Kings 19 1st in addition to their 1sts over the next 3 years.  They also have maintained great cap space.  Maximizing opportunities while maintaining flexibility is the best approach to a rebuild.

But then all your eggs are in one draft basket, which is dangerous. Minnesota has how many top draft picks now?

Lest wait. Really, lets wait for 4 years and see. 

I see the fact that Noel and Okafor might not pan out as a reason why Hinkie had the strategy he did. In the past some teams may have tanked for a year or two and ended up with a couple high picks like Noel and Okafor, who might prove not to be worth tanking for. So Hinkie's strategy was to acquire as many high picks as possible so even though you may end up with a Noel, you also get an Embiid.

It's not that Hinkie's strategy doesn't work. I don't think there's a valid argument against it's concept. The question is whether the Hinkie process is worth the cost. And the cost turns out to be more than just wins and losses and dates on a calendar. It's the psychological wear and tear, the perception of and pressure on relationships within the team and around the league etc. It may be a larger cost than anticipated and requires more investment each year.

It still may be worth it. You tank for cornerstone guys and if you get one or two of them, it's worth it. They have Embiid who looks absolutely worth it if he can stay healthy. And maybe Simmons. They have another high pick coming this year. If they end up with even two legit stars, it doesn't matter who else comes and goes.

Ironically, this was all about "the process" and will ultimately be judged by "the result". Like you said, we'll wait and see.

There are two elements of Hinkie's strategy, however, that you don't need any more time to evaluate.

1.  His strategy is entirely dependent on luck.  In all these years of tanking, they only got the #1 pick once.  If the ping pong balls bounce a little different, they don't get Simmons.  If Embiid isn't hurt, they don't get him with the third pick.

Now, most winning teams get lucky but their strategy is to do the best they can and then hope for a little luck to put them over the top.  Hinkie's strategy was the equivalent of mortgaging your house to buy lottery tickets.

2.  The drive to be as bad as possible to all those extra ping pong balls meant that when the tank was over, meant the team would have no secondary or tertiary assets.  They have no real way of improving the team that doesn't involve trading one of their core pieces.

Mike

[Smitty77]

Anymore, I'm a little hesitant on getting him.

I think he'd definitely help our rebounding, interior defense, and defense overall, but I think we need more of an offensive upgrade right now. The last several games our defense has been pretty good, but it's been our iso offense that needs a boost. A lot of that deals with IT being out (better defense/lack of iso offense), but we do need another scorer anyways, even with IT. Further, our defense was trending up even with IT playing anyways, so it's not all attributable to him being out.

As well as Smart has been running the offense, we need another scorer with IT out. I'd obviously much prefer Boogie, but I guess Noel would be a good backup option, if he comes decently cheap.

The offense run by Smart last night was OFFENSIVE!!!  There was virtually NO ball movement when Smart was our PG.  That changed when Rozier was the PG!!

Smitty77

[Smitty77]

The Philly experiment seems to prove that real mega-talents like Embiid will always get their numbers, no matter what.  It doesn't mean they'll become winners, as DeMarcus Cousins also proves, but that level of talent always shines through.

For the guys a tier or two below that like Noel and Okafor, however, it seems like team fit and a positive culture can make a world of difference.

Mike

Did you come to the conclusion that Philly experiment "proves" something 15 games into Embiid's career and 0 games into Ben Simmons' career?  What do you think the experiment proved already?

Well, let's see.

Noel was the first pick in the experiment.  He's now seen as damaged goods around the league and wants out of Philly in the worst way.

Embiid was pick #2 and in his third season still has yet to prove he can physically withstand a full schedule of NBA basketball.

Okafor was the #3 pick, seen by most as the sure #2, and now plenty of Philly fans would rather keep Noel over him, except nobody else really wants Okafor that much either.

Simmons is yet to be determined but was no sort of team leader at all in college, which doesn't bode well especially if he and Okafor wind up splitting minutes at their natural position.

And as we saw in this offseason, NOBODY wants to play for Philly.

I also think the Philly experiment proved there's something very weird in people who hang out on a Boston Celtics forum, yet seem to love the Sixers and their former GM more than Red, Russell, Tommy, Cousy, Bird and The Truth put together.

Mike

Wow, I could not agree MORE with this!!!  Very bizarre indeed!!!

"I also think the Philly experiment proved there's something very weird in people who hang out on a Boston Celtics forum, yet seem to love the Sixers and their former GM more than Red, Russell, Tommy, Cousy, Bird and The Truth put together."

Smitty77

[Moranis]

Is Noel even good? We've only seen flashes. Time is ticking. Same for Okafor.

Philly's problem may not be crowded talent, but just an overall lack of it. Noel and Okafor may only be bench players from what we've seen so maybe we should value them like bench players and Philly shouldn't act like their giving up starting level talent for a discount. This is basically what some predicted back at the draft. Their value would only go down and it has.

Interesting point. And if accurate it bodes very poorly for hinkies approach to a rebuild.

Not really.  Hinkie's approach was to maximize the quality and quantity of picks because you can't count on a particular pick or draft for success.  They have Embiid and Simmons to build around regardless of how well Okafor and Noel turn out or what they trade them for.  They have the Laker 17/18 1st and the Kings 19 1st in addition to their 1sts over the next 3 years.  They also have maintained great cap space.  Maximizing opportunities while maintaining flexibility is the best approach to a rebuild.

But then all your eggs are in one draft basket, which is dangerous. Minnesota has how many top draft picks now?

Lest wait. Really, lets wait for 4 years and see. 

I see the fact that Noel and Okafor might not pan out as a reason why Hinkie had the strategy he did. In the past some teams may have tanked for a year or two and ended up with a couple high picks like Noel and Okafor, who might prove not to be worth tanking for. So Hinkie's strategy was to acquire as many high picks as possible so even though you may end up with a Noel, you also get an Embiid.

It's not that Hinkie's strategy doesn't work. I don't think there's a valid argument against it's concept. The question is whether the Hinkie process is worth the cost. And the cost turns out to be more than just wins and losses and dates on a calendar. It's the psychological wear and tear, the perception of and pressure on relationships within the team and around the league etc. It may be a larger cost than anticipated and requires more investment each year.

It still may be worth it. You tank for cornerstone guys and if you get one or two of them, it's worth it. They have Embiid who looks absolutely worth it if he can stay healthy. And maybe Simmons. They have another high pick coming this year. If they end up with even two legit stars, it doesn't matter who else comes and goes.

Ironically, this was all about "the process" and will ultimately be judged by "the result". Like you said, we'll wait and see.

There are two elements of Hinkie's strategy, however, that you don't need any more time to evaluate.

1.  His strategy is entirely dependent on luck.  In all these years of tanking, they only got the #1 pick once.  If the ping pong balls bounce a little different, they don't get Simmons.  If Embiid isn't hurt, they don't get him with the third pick.

Now, most winning teams get lucky but their strategy is to do the best they can and then hope for a little luck to put them over the top.  Hinkie's strategy was the equivalent of mortgaging your house to buy lottery tickets.

2.  The drive to be as bad as possible to all those extra ping pong balls meant that when the tank was over, meant the team would have no secondary or tertiary assets.  They have no real way of improving the team that doesn't involve trading one of their core pieces.

Mike

You don't really understand the Sixers strategy.  It was about maximizing the opportunity to acquire franchise altering talent.  They determined (and perhaps rightly so) that the best way to do that was to acquire that franchise altering talent through the draft.  And because the draft is a crap shoot, you have to give yourself as many opportunities as possible as high in the draft as possible.  The best way to do that is for your team to be very bad to increase the likelihood of a high pick for multiple years and acquire other 1st round picks to fill in with depth.  It is nothing like a lottery pick which is totally random. 

And the Sixers had the #1 pick one year because the Sixers were the worst team that one year.  The other two years of the tank, the Sixers weren't the worst team in the league.  Through their crafty trading they acquired 2 other lottery picks in those 4 years and still have the potential for multiple other lottery picks from other teams over the next few. 

The Timberwolves did basically the same thing.  In 2013, traded 9 (Burke) for 14 (Muhammad), 21 (Dieng).   Then they really started tanking in the summer of 2014.  They got Lavine at 13 and then later that summer traded Love for Wiggins (1 in 2014) ensuring a tank job. Ended up with the worst record and the 1st pick and took Towns at 1 in 2015 and followed that up with Dunn at 5 in 2016.  Not quite as many trades, but the Wolves have quietly been tanking for awhile now and appear headed for another high pick this year. 

[SHAQATTACK]

My goodness 😮

All this Hinkie discussion , Noel and Philly posts


Where is LarryBird33   🤔

[moiso]

My goodness 😮

All this Hinkie discussion , Noel and Philly posts


Where is LarryBird33   🤔

Shhhh!  Maybe suspended?

[Eddie20]

My goodness 😮

All this Hinkie discussion , Noel and Philly posts


Where is LarryBird33   🤔

Shhhh!  Maybe suspended?

Poor LB was suspended for comments detrimental to the blog. After which, he will be placed on probation where he is prohibited from mentioning any player, team, or GM (either current or former) other than those that are part of the Boston Celtics.