WOJ mini-Bomb: Noel's stock drops

[celticsclay]

What teams do you think are the most likely to give Noel a max contract offer this Summer?

I don't think that any teams will at this point (and not even close). He 100% needs to be healthy the last 50 games of this season to show he can stay on the court (and productive). He is not getting a max offer without that and I am doubtful he can do that. He probably wont even if he can stay healthy

If it's unlikely that Noel receives a max offer, I think there should be more consideration to the possibility that Philadelphia just keeps Noel, because he's an exceptional defensive big who can guard the perimeter and paint and according you he can be locked up this Summer on a relatively cheap deal.   The best move for them seems to be no move at all. He can make a major impact for them off the bench if he gets healthy.  He was +11 in his first game (a win).

Well if he is a locker room problem like WOJ reports, than keeping the lockeroom problem around hardly sounds like the best move right?

When did WOJ report he is a locker room problem?

It's obviously a bit cryptic but “The research teams have done on him is not good,” Wojnarowski said. “They don’t get good reports back, their intel on how he’s carried himself there, of his habits."

When you talk about how someone carries themselves, it has to at least be referencing some of the stuff of how they act in the lockerroom/with the team. They obviously don't really care how he carries himself alone on the couch.

[mahcussmaht]

What teams do you think are the most likely to give Noel a max contract offer this Summer?

I don't think that any teams will at this point (and not even close). He 100% needs to be healthy the last 50 games of this season to show he can stay on the court (and productive). He is not getting a max offer without that and I am doubtful he can do that. He probably wont even if he can stay healthy

If it's unlikely that Noel receives a max offer, I think there should be more consideration to the possibility that Philadelphia just keeps Noel, because he's an exceptional defensive big who can guard the perimeter and paint and according you he can be locked up this Summer on a relatively cheap deal.   The best move for them seems to be no move at all. He can make a major impact for them off the bench if he gets healthy.  He was +11 in his first game (a win).

Well if he is a locker room problem like WOJ reports, than keeping the lockeroom problem around hardly sounds like the best move right?

When did WOJ report he is a locker room problem?

It's obviously a bit cryptic but “The research teams have done on him is not good,” Wojnarowski said. “They don’t get good reports back, their intel on how he’s carried himself there, of his habits."

When you talk about how someone carries themselves, it has to at least be referencing some of the stuff of how they act in the lockerroom/with the team. They obviously don't really care how he carries himself alone on the couch.

I thought that was a reference to him renting a house full of dog poop or something.

[jpotter33]

He's played 1 game so far and hurt his ankle.  He's sitting out tonight.  Rumor is that Okafor and Embiid are starting together tonight with Embiid moving to PF.  If for some reason that works, Noel might be a really useful back-up on that team.  I wouldn't expect his stock to be high after sitting out so much time.   He was +11 off the bench in his first game.   His stock could go up over the next two months if he actually plays.

First off, there's no way that will work. Okafor can't guard PF's, and having Embiid do so is absolutely stupid to take away his rim protection and put him out on the perimeter.

This is most likely a showcase for Okafor more than anything, because there's absolutely no reason to do such a thing. Simmons is their PF of the future, and they also have both Saric and Ilyasova, not to mention their other bigs.

This is the problem with drafting center prospects three years in a row. They must now lay in the bed that they made.

As for Noel, yeah, his stock can really only go up from here, and they'll still keep him for a little bit to try and raise it. However, it's going to be low regardless because of the situation, and they won't get anywhere near the value he should have right about now in his contract.

Let's switch Noel from his Sixers situation to a Boston situation right now. If he was playing in Boston as a starter (or anywhere else for that matter), he'd be in line for a max contract about now. He has DPOY potential, but he has been totally misused and squandered in Philly. Sucks for him, too, because I think he has a lot of potential as a very good defensive anchor, similar to a Tyson Chandler type.

Your last paragraph was the most profound for me.  You said that if Noel was on Boston he'd be in line for a max contract.   If you as a fan are aware of Noel's potential impact outside his current situation, doesn't it stand to reason that one of the 29 NBA teams would also come to that conclusion?  I'm not sure why fans would assume teams are ignorant to his ability and the context for his struggles.  If you can figure it out, I'm sure there's some teams out there who can also figure it out.

Brian Windhorst reported that the Timberwolves are seeking frontcourt help.  Specifically their interior defense.  That's why I think we could see them go after Noel in a trade scenario where Zach Lavine is moved.

Nah, it's very hard for me to see them going after Noel. KAT ultimately should be the C anyways. They're looking for more of a veteran to help stable their group.

As for the max contract stuff, sure, but even if he'd be capable of getting a max contract in another situation, the real situation that we're in now precludes that from happening. Teams will think he can do better in their situation, which is why they'll even take the chance on him in the first place. However, his context and situation will allow them to go after him cheaper. They don't want to pay him that much money, and unless the market dictates that they do pay that much money, which it won't due to his context and situation, they won't have to.

It's a normative/descriptive difference basically. In the right situation, he should've commanded a max contract this summer. However, given how crappy he's been handled and his injury situation, he won't command that money.

[jpotter33]

Even when he displayed attitude issues and chose to have the elective surgery, people on here have been talking about Noel getting a Max contract and the Sixers being forced to trade him or losing him for nothing.  I've always thought that he'd get a Mozgov level contract but if Woj is correct it could be significantly less than that.  I expect Noel will get traded.  However if the Sixers don't get a reasonable offer, they might as well hang on to Noel and see what offers he gets in free agency.

Won't happen. He'll take the QO or have his agent pressure a trade before that. With the situation they've put him in and really screwed him over with, he's not going to just sit back and allow that to happen. Players and agents have much more power in this league than people realize.

An RFA taking the QO for a year is not an indication of a player's power.  It's a desperation move.  If Noel only gets lowball offers from other teams, he might accept a reasonable offer from the Sixers rather than taking the QO for a year.  As I said I expect Noel to get traded but the Sixers aren't forced to traded him.

No, they basically are. Noel isn't going to stay there. There's absolutely not going to be enough playing time for him and all of the other bigs to showcase himself. He and his agent will make the QO threat to management, which will essentially force their hand.

Unless he would significantly injure himself again, there's almost a 0% chance that he's a Sixer in March.

[jpotter33]

Anymore, I'm a little hesitant on getting him.

I think he'd definitely help our rebounding, interior defense, and defense overall, but I think we need more of an offensive upgrade right now. The last several games our defense has been pretty good, but it's been our iso offense that needs a boost. A lot of that deals with IT being out (better defense/lack of iso offense), but we do need another scorer anyways, even with IT. Further, our defense was trending up even with IT playing anyways, so it's not all attributable to him being out.

As well as Smart has been running the offense, we need another scorer with IT out. I'd obviously much prefer Boogie, but I guess Noel would be a good backup option, if he comes decently cheap.

[walker834]

Noel isn't getting a max contract.   These mini rumors ie Minny change daily.  Injury wise it more just seems like he is in a bad situation.  Even if he's camby 2.0 camby was a good player for certain years.  If his stock has lowered that's good.

We could still use a guy who can swat shots and is mobile.  I still doubt philly trades him to us without asking for more than the usual. 

I still think Ainge will shoot for more.  Ainge is in all or draft mode.  He's going to try to get a star.

I have no issues with Nerlens as a player.  He's a good player and fits a need for us. Whether he is the guy is something else. 

[walker834]

These rumors are created by people who have no clue what they are talking about trying to get website clicks, or by the teams press themselves to create leverage.

Noel to Minny means nothing to me.

If he is traded within the division and a guy we want it's still the same to me that Philly will ask for more.

So what Woj said here is absolutely meaningless except that philly has now lowered their asking price outside the division possibly to teams that want to bid for him.

Us and Toronto are still teams that could use him just as much as anyone but philly is basically saying we will trade him elsewhere for less if you don't offer more.

Nothing has changed.   Just posturing.

[2short]

Zeller and a pick

[Csfan1984]

As much as Hinkie gets slammed he probably would have flipped Noel  for a 2019 projected lotto pick before the season's start.

[celticsclay]

Noel isn't getting a max contract.   These mini rumors ie Minny change daily.  Injury wise it more just seems like he is in a bad situation.  Even if he's camby 2.0 camby was a good player for certain years.  If his stock has lowered that's good.

We could still use a guy who can swat shots and is mobile.  I still doubt philly trades him to us without asking for more than the usual. 

I still think Ainge will shoot for more.  Ainge is in all or draft mode.  He's going to try to get a star.

I have no issues with Nerlens as a player.  He's a good player and fits a need for us. Whether he is the guy is something else.

If by Camby 2.0 you mean twice the player Camby was that is pretty laughable based on what Noel has shown so far. Camby averaged 15 points, 6 rebounds and a block and 2 blocks as a rookie. By his second season he was up to 3.5 blocks a game. Camby did deal with injuries that stopped him from fully blossoming (which he may have in common with Noel), however, don't undersell Camby. He averaged double digit rebounds 11 times (peaking at 13). I don't think Noel will ever average 10 rebounds for a season.

[celticsclay]

As much as Hinkie gets slammed he probably would have flipped Noel  for a 2019 projected lotto pick before the season's start.

I think I agree with that..

[gift]

Is Noel even good? We've only seen flashes. Time is ticking. Same for Okafor.

Philly's problem may not be crowded talent, but just an overall lack of it. Noel and Okafor may only be bench players from what we've seen so maybe we should value them like bench players and Philly shouldn't act like their giving up starting level talent for a discount. This is basically what some predicted back at the draft. Their value would only go down and it has.

[hwangjini_1]

Is Noel even good? We've only seen flashes. Time is ticking. Same for Okafor.

Philly's problem may not be crowded talent, but just an overall lack of it. Noel and Okafor may only be bench players from what we've seen so maybe we should value them like bench players and Philly shouldn't act like their giving up starting level talent for a discount. This is basically what some predicted back at the draft. Their value would only go down and it has.

Interesting point. And if accurate it bodes very poorly for hinkies approach to a rebuild.

[MBunge]

The Philly experiment seems to prove that real mega-talents like Embiid will always get their numbers, no matter what.  It doesn't mean they'll become winners, as DeMarcus Cousins also proves, but that level of talent always shines through.

For the guys a tier or two below that like Noel and Okafor, however, it seems like team fit and a positive culture can make a world of difference.

Mike

Did you come to the conclusion that Philly experiment "proves" something 15 games into Embiid's career and 0 games into Ben Simmons' career?  What do you think the experiment proved already?

Well, let's see.

Noel was the first pick in the experiment.  He's now seen as damaged goods around the league and wants out of Philly in the worst way.

Embiid was pick #2 and in his third season still has yet to prove he can physically withstand a full schedule of NBA basketball.

Okafor was the #3 pick, seen by most as the sure #2, and now plenty of Philly fans would rather keep Noel over him, except nobody else really wants Okafor that much either.

Simmons is yet to be determined but was no sort of team leader at all in college, which doesn't bode well especially if he and Okafor wind up splitting minutes at their natural position.

And as we saw in this offseason, NOBODY wants to play for Philly.

I also think the Philly experiment proved there's something very weird in people who hang out on a Boston Celtics forum, yet seem to love the Sixers and their former GM more than Red, Russell, Tommy, Cousy, Bird and The Truth put together.

Mike

[Vermont Green]

I don't really believe this is an irreversible situation.  Of course Noel's stock is low as he comes off an injury and hasn't played.  The only news on him is the bad stuff.  No opportunity to demonstrate any of the good stuff (on court).   I suspect the needle will swing back as he has a chance to play.  We shall see how much.

I believe he is still a very promising prospect.  He has plenty to prove and improve but let's give him say 2 months on the court after injury before we write him off.  I think he is going to figure it out and be a productive NBA player although probably not a max player.  There is quite a bit of real estate between max player and NBA washout.