WOJ mini-Bomb: Noel's stock drops

[MBunge]

What teams do you think are the most likely to give Noel a max contract offer this Summer?

I don't think that any teams will at this point (and not even close). He 100% needs to be healthy the last 50 games of this season to show he can stay on the court (and productive). He is not getting a max offer without that and I am doubtful he can do that. He probably wont even if he can stay healthy

If it's unlikely that Noel receives a max offer, I think there should be more consideration to the possibility that Philadelphia just keeps Noel, because he's an exceptional defensive big who can guard the perimeter and paint and according you he can be locked up this Summer on a relatively cheap deal.   The best move for them seems to be no move at all.  He can make a major impact for them off the bench if he gets healthy.  He was +11 in his first game (a win).

I'm pretty sure at his point that Noel will take any offer to get out of Philly.  He's never going to get a chance to earn a max deal in that situation.

Mike

[Who]

I remember Chad Ford mentioned "locker room issues" or "character concerns", something along those lines, after Noel's rookie season. That he had been hearing these things around the league and that the Sixers were concerned about his character.

So no, this is not a surprise.

I still trade for Noel in a heartbeat though. Amazing defensive talent.

[mahcussmaht]

The Philly experiment seems to prove that real mega-talents like Embiid will always get their numbers, no matter what.  It doesn't mean they'll become winners, as DeMarcus Cousins also proves, but that level of talent always shines through.

For the guys a tier or two below that like Noel and Okafor, however, it seems like team fit and a positive culture can make a world of difference.

Mike

Did you come to the conclusion that Philly experiment "proves" something 15 games into Embiid's career and 0 games into Ben Simmons' career?  What do you think the experiment proved already?

[jpotter33]

Thought this was some pretty interesting quotes from WOJ who we all seem to hold in high regard.
Proppers to potter for digging this up, but think it is best served not tied up in the Okafor thread that will get derailed there.

"Wojnarowski said that Philadelphia’s Nerlens Noel is seeing his stock drop across the league. The more teams see of him, Wojnarowski said, the less teams like him. 

“The research teams have done on him is not good,” Wojnarowski said. “They don’t get good reports back, their intel on how he’s carried himself there, of his habits. It’s not a great return, so there are teams willing to do a deal for him and bring him in, but they don’t want to give up much, so at some point there Philly’s gotta make a decision, ‘What’s the best we can get for him?’ I think at some point he probably moves, too.”

Is this surprising for anyone? Also it appears this may have been a report from before Noel's most recent injury in his first game back, which really makes you question whether the guy can stay healthy. What do you guys think? A memphis pick or James Young and hope he can play 20 games down the stretch for us?

Props go to Liam who first posted the link earlier.

Yeah, his stock is dropping, and it doesn't even mention his injury woes, though this last one was a sprained ankle that can happen to anyone. Plus, he's just day-to-day right now, so it's not a bad injury at all.

But, yeah, like many of us posited, his value around the league is really low. I thought we could get him for something like Rozier and the Memphis pick, but the Memphis pick and Young might ultimately be enough to get him in the end.

[mahcussmaht]

What teams do you think are the most likely to give Noel a max contract offer this Summer?

I don't think that any teams will at this point (and not even close). He 100% needs to be healthy the last 50 games of this season to show he can stay on the court (and productive). He is not getting a max offer without that and I am doubtful he can do that. He probably wont even if he can stay healthy

If it's unlikely that Noel receives a max offer, I think there should be more consideration to the possibility that Philadelphia just keeps Noel, because he's an exceptional defensive big who can guard the perimeter and paint and according you he can be locked up this Summer on a relatively cheap deal.   The best move for them seems to be no move at all.  He can make a major impact for them off the bench if he gets healthy.  He was +11 in his first game (a win).

I'm pretty sure at his point that Noel will take any offer to get out of Philly.  He's never going to get a chance to earn a max deal in that situation.

Mike

He doesn't have a choice.  He's a restricted free agent.

[tazzmaniac]

Even when he displayed attitude issues and chose to have the elective surgery, people on here have been talking about Noel getting a Max contract and the Sixers being forced to trade him or losing him for nothing.  I've always thought that he'd get a Mozgov level contract but if Woj is correct it could be significantly less than that.  I expect Noel will get traded.  However if the Sixers don't get a reasonable offer, they might as well hang on to Noel and see what offers he gets in free agency. 

[PhoSita]

I'll bet some team will offer Noel a lucrative 2-3 year deal, just to pressure Philly. 

[celticsclay]

What teams do you think are the most likely to give Noel a max contract offer this Summer?

I don't think that any teams will at this point (and not even close). He 100% needs to be healthy the last 50 games of this season to show he can stay on the court (and productive). He is not getting a max offer without that and I am doubtful he can do that. He probably wont even if he can stay healthy

If it's unlikely that Noel receives a max offer, I think there should be more consideration to the possibility that Philadelphia just keeps Noel, because he's an exceptional defensive big who can guard the perimeter and paint and according you he can be locked up this Summer on a relatively cheap deal.   The best move for them seems to be no move at all. He can make a major impact for them off the bench if he gets healthy.  He was +11 in his first game (a win).

Well if he is a locker room problem like WOJ reports, than keeping the lockeroom problem around hardly sounds like the best move right?

[mahcussmaht]

What teams do you think are the most likely to give Noel a max contract offer this Summer?

I don't think that any teams will at this point (and not even close). He 100% needs to be healthy the last 50 games of this season to show he can stay on the court (and productive). He is not getting a max offer without that and I am doubtful he can do that. He probably wont even if he can stay healthy

If it's unlikely that Noel receives a max offer, I think there should be more consideration to the possibility that Philadelphia just keeps Noel, because he's an exceptional defensive big who can guard the perimeter and paint and according you he can be locked up this Summer on a relatively cheap deal.   The best move for them seems to be no move at all. He can make a major impact for them off the bench if he gets healthy.  He was +11 in his first game (a win).

Well if he is a locker room problem like WOJ reports, than keeping the lockeroom problem around hardly sounds like the best move right?

When did WOJ report he is a locker room problem?

[celticsclay]

I'll bet some team will offer Noel a lucrative 2-3 year deal, just to pressure Philly.

The nets?

[jpotter33]

He's played 1 game so far and hurt his ankle.  He's sitting out tonight.  Rumor is that Okafor and Embiid are starting together tonight with Embiid moving to PF.  If for some reason that works, Noel might be a really useful back-up on that team.  I wouldn't expect his stock to be high after sitting out so much time.   He was +11 off the bench in his first game.   His stock could go up over the next two months if he actually plays.

First off, there's no way that will work. Okafor can't guard PF's, and having Embiid do so is absolutely stupid to take away his rim protection and put him out on the perimeter.

This is most likely a showcase for Okafor more than anything, because there's absolutely no reason to do such a thing. Simmons is their PF of the future, and they also have both Saric and Ilyasova, not to mention their other bigs.

This is the problem with drafting center prospects three years in a row. They must now lay in the bed that they made.

As for Noel, yeah, his stock can really only go up from here, and they'll still keep him for a little bit to try and raise it. However, it's going to be low regardless because of the situation, and they won't get anywhere near the value he should have right about now in his contract.

Let's switch Noel from his Sixers situation to a Boston situation right now. If he was playing in Boston as a starter (or anywhere else for that matter), he'd be in line for a max contract about now. He has DPOY potential, but he has been totally misused and squandered in Philly. Sucks for him, too, because I think he has a lot of potential as a very good defensive anchor, similar to a Tyson Chandler type.

[jpotter33]

Even when he displayed attitude issues and chose to have the elective surgery, people on here have been talking about Noel getting a Max contract and the Sixers being forced to trade him or losing him for nothing.  I've always thought that he'd get a Mozgov level contract but if Woj is correct it could be significantly less than that.  I expect Noel will get traded.  However if the Sixers don't get a reasonable offer, they might as well hang on to Noel and see what offers he gets in free agency.

Won't happen. He'll take the QO or have his agent pressure a trade before that. With the situation they've put him in and really screwed him over with, he's not going to just sit back and allow that to happen. Players and agents have much more power in this league than people realize.

[PhoSita]

I'll bet some team will offer Noel a lucrative 2-3 year deal, just to pressure Philly.

The nets?

Yeah, that's the sort of team that should probably take a shot on him.

[mahcussmaht]

He's played 1 game so far and hurt his ankle.  He's sitting out tonight.  Rumor is that Okafor and Embiid are starting together tonight with Embiid moving to PF.  If for some reason that works, Noel might be a really useful back-up on that team.  I wouldn't expect his stock to be high after sitting out so much time.   He was +11 off the bench in his first game.   His stock could go up over the next two months if he actually plays.

First off, there's no way that will work. Okafor can't guard PF's, and having Embiid do so is absolutely stupid to take away his rim protection and put him out on the perimeter.

This is most likely a showcase for Okafor more than anything, because there's absolutely no reason to do such a thing. Simmons is their PF of the future, and they also have both Saric and Ilyasova, not to mention their other bigs.

This is the problem with drafting center prospects three years in a row. They must now lay in the bed that they made.

As for Noel, yeah, his stock can really only go up from here, and they'll still keep him for a little bit to try and raise it. However, it's going to be low regardless because of the situation, and they won't get anywhere near the value he should have right about now in his contract.

Let's switch Noel from his Sixers situation to a Boston situation right now. If he was playing in Boston as a starter (or anywhere else for that matter), he'd be in line for a max contract about now. He has DPOY potential, but he has been totally misused and squandered in Philly. Sucks for him, too, because I think he has a lot of potential as a very good defensive anchor, similar to a Tyson Chandler type.

Your last paragraph was the most profound for me.  You said that if Noel was on Boston he'd be in line for a max contract.   If you as a fan are aware of Noel's potential impact outside his current situation, doesn't it stand to reason that one of the 29 NBA teams would also come to that conclusion?  I'm not sure why fans would assume teams are ignorant to his ability and the context for his struggles.  If you can figure it out, I'm sure there's some teams out there who can also figure it out.

Brian Windhorst reported that the Timberwolves are seeking frontcourt help.  Specifically their interior defense.  That's why I think we could see them go after Noel in a trade scenario where Zach Lavine is moved.

[tazzmaniac]

Even when he displayed attitude issues and chose to have the elective surgery, people on here have been talking about Noel getting a Max contract and the Sixers being forced to trade him or losing him for nothing.  I've always thought that he'd get a Mozgov level contract but if Woj is correct it could be significantly less than that.  I expect Noel will get traded.  However if the Sixers don't get a reasonable offer, they might as well hang on to Noel and see what offers he gets in free agency.

Won't happen. He'll take the QO or have his agent pressure a trade before that. With the situation they've put him in and really screwed him over with, he's not going to just sit back and allow that to happen. Players and agents have much more power in this league than people realize.

An RFA taking the QO for a year is not an indication of a player's power.  It's a desperation move.  If Noel only gets lowball offers from other teams, he might accept a reasonable offer from the Sixers rather than taking the QO for a year.  As I said I expect Noel to get traded but the Sixers aren't forced to traded him.