WOJ mini-Bomb: Noel's stock drops

[celticsclay]

Thought this was some pretty interesting quotes from WOJ who we all seem to hold in high regard.
Proppers to potter for digging this up, but think it is best served not tied up in the Okafor thread that will get derailed there.

"Wojnarowski said that Philadelphia’s Nerlens Noel is seeing his stock drop across the league. The more teams see of him, Wojnarowski said, the less teams like him. 

“The research teams have done on him is not good,” Wojnarowski said. “They don’t get good reports back, their intel on how he’s carried himself there, of his habits. It’s not a great return, so there are teams willing to do a deal for him and bring him in, but they don’t want to give up much, so at some point there Philly’s gotta make a decision, ‘What’s the best we can get for him?’ I think at some point he probably moves, too.”

Is this surprising for anyone? Also it appears this may have been a report from before Noel's most recent injury in his first game back, which really makes you question whether the guy can stay healthy. What do you guys think? A memphis pick or James Young and hope he can play 20 games down the stretch for us?

[PhoSita]

He seems really injury prone, and his offensive upside appears to be very low.  Couple that with potential character issues -- though I don't put a lot of stock in players having problems in Philly -- and it's not surprising teams aren't willing to give up a lot for him.

Honestly, how much more valuable is he than Gorgui Dieng, for example, given his injury history?

[mctyson]

This is obvious.

He has almost zero offensive ability.  Once he loses his bounce his career will take a nose-dive.

[mahcussmaht]

He's played 1 game so far and hurt his ankle.  He's sitting out tonight.  Rumor is that Okafor and Embiid are starting together tonight with Embiid moving to PF.  If for some reason that works, Noel might be a really useful back-up on that team.   I wouldn't expect his stock to be high after sitting out so much time.   He was +11 off the bench in his first game.   His stock could go up over the next two months if he actually plays.

[celticsclay]

He seems really injury prone, and his offensive upside appears to be very low.  Couple that with potential character issues -- though I don't put a lot of stock in players having problems in Philly -- and it's not surprising teams aren't willing to give up a lot for him.

Honestly, how much more valuable is he than Gorgui Dieng, for example, given his injury history?

I am pretty sure he is a less valuable than Dieng. Dieng averages 10 points, 8 rebounds, a block a steal and can shoot 30% from 30 and 51% from the field and is a decent foul shooter. Dieng is surprisingly 3 years olden than Noel, but given that Noel has had so many injuries issues (not to mention his frame) it is hard to see him having a super long durable career. You really would offset all of Noel's injury and offensive issues because he is better at defense and younger?

[mahcussmaht]

Other pieces need to be involved but I think there's a Zach Lavine/Nerlens Noel swap that makes sense for both teams.

[PhoSita]

He seems really injury prone, and his offensive upside appears to be very low.  Couple that with potential character issues -- though I don't put a lot of stock in players having problems in Philly -- and it's not surprising teams aren't willing to give up a lot for him.

Honestly, how much more valuable is he than Gorgui Dieng, for example, given his injury history?

I am pretty sure he is a less valuable than Dieng. Dieng averages 10 points, 8 rebounds, a block a steal and can shoot 30% from 30 and 51% from the field and is a decent foul shooter. Dieng is surprisingly 3 years olden than Noel, but given that Noel has had so many injuries issues (not to mention his frame) it is hard to see him having a super long durable career. You really would offset all of Noel's injury and offensive issues because he is better at defense and younger?

Honestly, I'd prefer Dieng, but I'm sure there are people who feel totally the other way, which is why I posed the question the way I did.

[PhoSita]

Other pieces need to be involved but I think there's a Zach Lavine/Nerlens Noel swap that makes sense for both teams.

I think the T-Wolves would be crazy to make that trade.  Towns should play at center, and Lavine will be a much more valuable piece long term if he can become a break-even defensive player at SG.

[celticsclay]

Other pieces need to be involved but I think there's a Zach Lavine/Nerlens Noel swap that makes sense for both teams.

Are they trading their starting guard that is a year younger than Noel and averaging 20 points a game for a guy that could be Towns backup if he could manage to stay at the court? At this point you are looking at, at best, a late first for Noel given his contract situation. I would be pretty livid if the Celtics gave a long term contract to a guy that has played in 134 out of 265 games in his 3 year career.

[celticsclay]

He seems really injury prone, and his offensive upside appears to be very low.  Couple that with potential character issues -- though I don't put a lot of stock in players having problems in Philly -- and it's not surprising teams aren't willing to give up a lot for him.

Honestly, how much more valuable is he than Gorgui Dieng, for example, given his injury history?

I am pretty sure he is a less valuable than Dieng. Dieng averages 10 points, 8 rebounds, a block a steal and can shoot 30% from 30 and 51% from the field and is a decent foul shooter. Dieng is surprisingly 3 years olden than Noel, but given that Noel has had so many injuries issues (not to mention his frame) it is hard to see him having a super long durable career. You really would offset all of Noel's injury and offensive issues because he is better at defense and younger?

Honestly, I'd prefer Dieng, but I'm sure there are people who feel totally the other way, which is why I posed the question the way I did.

I don't think given his latest injuries and "elective" surgeries and rumored attitude issues that many people are high on Noel (which is in line with this report). He may have cost himself the most money of any player in the league the last 6 months off the top off my head. If he doesn't start playing great soon it is hard to imagine a good contract for him this offseason (compared to what was thrown around a year ago)

[mahcussmaht]

What teams do you think are the most likely to give Noel a max contract offer this Summer?

[celticsclay]

What teams do you think are the most likely to give Noel a max contract offer this Summer?

I don't think that any teams will at this point (and not even close). He 100% needs to be healthy the last 50 games of this season to show he can stay on the court (and productive). He is not getting a max offer without that and I am doubtful he can do that. He probably wont even if he can stay healthy

[Eddie20]

Shock!

I guess folks don't see the "potential superstar/defensive player of the year player" some here saw.

[mahcussmaht]

What teams do you think are the most likely to give Noel a max contract offer this Summer?

I don't think that any teams will at this point (and not even close). He 100% needs to be healthy the last 50 games of this season to show he can stay on the court (and productive). He is not getting a max offer without that and I am doubtful he can do that. He probably wont even if he can stay healthy

If it's unlikely that Noel receives a max offer, I think there should be more consideration to the possibility that Philadelphia just keeps Noel, because he's an exceptional defensive big who can guard the perimeter and paint and according you he can be locked up this Summer on a relatively cheap deal.   The best move for them seems to be no move at all.  He can make a major impact for them off the bench if he gets healthy.  He was +11 in his first game (a win).

[MBunge]

The Philly experiment seems to prove that real mega-talents like Embiid will always get their numbers, no matter what.  It doesn't mean they'll become winners, as DeMarcus Cousins also proves, but that level of talent always shines through.

For the guys a tier or two below that like Noel and Okafor, however, it seems like team fit and a positive culture can make a world of difference.

Mike