Author Topic: The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem  (Read 1797 times)

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The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem
« on: December 05, 2016, 10:34:38 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Taking a look at the upcoming salary and roster.  Boston is going to have to make some real decisions, both on direction and players.  Obviously what that direction is will dictate the type of roster moves being made, but let's look at the future projected salary of the current players and for the sake of argument let's add a max salary slot this summer.

So with a max player signed in the 2017 summer, the 2018/19 salaries will look something like this:

Horford 29 million
Other Max FA 28 million (could be a bit more or less depending on cap and years of service of player)
Crowder 7.3 million
Brown 5.1 million
BKN 17 5 million (based on current scale not new CBA)
BKN 18 4 million (based on current scale not new CBA)
Rozier 3 million
Zizic, Yab, BOS 18 4 million (based on current scale not new CBA)

That is 85.4 million from 10 players and doesn't even account for the increase in rookie salaries expected with the new CBA or any possible adjustments for the max slot.  If you keep the 4 rotation players from the current team not identified above you would probably be looking at something like:

Thomas 22 million
Bradley 18 million
Olynyk 16 million (2nd year of his extension)
Smart 12 million

I think those are reasonable enough salaries barring injury or drastic changes in play.  That adds another 68 million.  Add that to the 85.4 million and you are looking at a payroll of 153.4 million dollars with one open roster spot (for Mickey or Jackson or someone else). 

There is no way Boston is holding a 150 million plus payroll.  None at all.  That is just too high even for a legit contender (and I'm not sure that team is a legit contender depending of course on who that other max free agent is).  That is why I think Boston will look to move players and assets either at the deadline this year or this summer for a player.  Boston has to consolidate and upgrade the starting lineup and just adding a max contract player in free agency doesn't alleviate these other issues.  So if Hayward signs, I would absolutely expect Bradley and/or Smart to get moved (maybe even for Hayward).  If Boston adds a PF/C, I would expect Olynyk to be let go, etc.   There is of course the other option of trading those guys before they reach free agency and building around the young players, though that is counterintuitive to the Horford signing and I don't think all that likely.

Even if Boston doesn't sign a max free agent, it is still going to have a salary crunch such that I think that some of the players get moved or are just not re-signed.  125 million for a basically the same team as now just isn't going to happen.  Team isn't good enough to carry that type of payroll. 

So Boston is going to have a real salary/roster problem in the very near future.  One that needs to get resolved soon and likely before the start of next season.  So expect some real moves to be made.
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Re: The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem
« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2016, 11:02:26 AM »

Offline bdm860

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Your salary projections seem fair to me, but I think your overall payroll expectations are off.

Portland already has $137m in committed salary for 2018 and CLE has $132.  OKC, LAC, and MIL all have $110-$112m. What might LAC look like when Paul and Griffin opt out and re-sign for bigger deals?

I think $125m might become the new normal and few teams trying to spend to become contenders will hit $150m in the next few years.

With the $50m-60m-ish cap we had for the last 10 years, we constantly saw teams in the $80m-$90m range.  Though there were fewer after the most recent luxury tax rules were implemented, there were still like 2-4 per year, right?.

$60m cap, $80m-$85m payroll is 133%-142% of the cap.  2018 and 2019 salary cap are projected to be $102-$108m.  Luxury tax is usally 120% of the salary cap so will be about $130m, and if we apply the same percentages we've seen teams go over in the past, that gets you in the $140m+ range, $150m+ on the higher side.

With where some teams are already, I wouldn't be surprised to see teams start getting in that $140m-$150m range over the next few years.

Of course part of this assumes they adjust the current luxury tax rules to the higher salary cap.  Doesn't make sense (to me at least) to keep the same fixed dollar amount luxury tax penalty thresholds with the much higher cap.  I guess we'll see if this is addressed in the new CBA they're currently negotiating.  Even if it's not, the top threshold is currently $20m over the luxury tax line (which could be $130m), so I still think we'll see a few teams get to around, if not right under $150m.  Might not sound so outrageous in a couple of years.

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Re: The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem
« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2016, 11:12:03 AM »

Offline Cman

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The OP is raising an excellent point.

A few thoughts:

(1) This suggests that many of the players currently on the team are going to be traded or let go in FA. Of them all, I'm most interested in what happens with IT. He's a unique player; can he get market value elsewhere, or can the Cs keep him relatively cheaply?

(2) Over the next couple of years, as teams start to fill their rosters with $20+M/year players, rookies and young players will become relative bargains. In principle, this should make the first round picks that the Cs currently have more valuable than in the past.
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Re: The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem
« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2016, 11:28:28 AM »

Offline saltlover

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The OP is raising an excellent point.

A few thoughts:

(1) This suggests that many of the players currently on the team are going to be traded or let go in FA. Of them all, I'm most interested in what happens with IT. He's a unique player; can he get market value elsewhere, or can the Cs keep him relatively cheaply?

(2) Over the next couple of years, as teams start to fill their rosters with $20+M/year players, rookies and young players will become relative bargains. In principle, this should make the first round picks that the Cs currently have more valuable than in the past.

The OP was assuming that IT, AB, Olynyk, and Smart would be retained, and has listed his salary guesses for each (I think he's a little low on Smart, but overall he's got the right idea). Want to make sure you saw that.

Re: The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem
« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2016, 11:28:58 AM »

Online BitterJim

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Taking a look at the upcoming salary and roster.  Boston is going to have to make some real decisions, both on direction and players.  Obviously what that direction is will dictate the type of roster moves being made, but let's look at the future projected salary of the current players and for the sake of argument let's add a max salary slot this summer.

So with a max player signed in the 2017 summer, the 2018/19 salaries will look something like this:

Horford 29 million
Other Max FA 28 million (could be a bit more or less depending on cap and years of service of player)
Crowder 7.3 million
Brown 5.1 million
BKN 17 5 million (based on current scale not new CBA)
BKN 18 4 million (based on current scale not new CBA)
Rozier 3 million
Zizic, Yab, BOS 18 4 million (based on current scale not new CBA)

That is 85.4 million from 10 players and doesn't even account for the increase in rookie salaries expected with the new CBA or any possible adjustments for the max slot.  If you keep the 4 rotation players from the current team not identified above you would probably be looking at something like:

Thomas 22 million
Bradley 18 million
Olynyk 16 million (2nd year of his extension)
Smart 12 million

I think those are reasonable enough salaries barring injury or drastic changes in play.  That adds another 68 million.  Add that to the 85.4 million and you are looking at a payroll of 153.4 million dollars with one open roster spot (for Mickey or Jackson or someone else). 

There is no way Boston is holding a 150 million plus payroll.  None at all.  That is just too high even for a legit contender (and I'm not sure that team is a legit contender depending of course on who that other max free agent is).  That is why I think Boston will look to move players and assets either at the deadline this year or this summer for a player.  Boston has to consolidate and upgrade the starting lineup and just adding a max contract player in free agency doesn't alleviate these other issues.  So if Hayward signs, I would absolutely expect Bradley and/or Smart to get moved (maybe even for Hayward).  If Boston adds a PF/C, I would expect Olynyk to be let go, etc.   There is of course the other option of trading those guys before they reach free agency and building around the young players, though that is counterintuitive to the Horford signing and I don't think all that likely.

Even if Boston doesn't sign a max free agent, it is still going to have a salary crunch such that I think that some of the players get moved or are just not re-signed.  125 million for a basically the same team as now just isn't going to happen.  Team isn't good enough to carry that type of payroll. 

So Boston is going to have a real salary/roster problem in the very near future.  One that needs to get resolved soon and likely before the start of next season.  So expect some real moves to be made.

I just can't see us resigning Olynyk.  Similar to what happened with Turner, he's gonna price himself out of here.  There's no way Danny spends that kind of money on a bench player when we're still looking for another star (if we sign another star like, say, Hayward, or trade for one like Boogie, then he might resign him just to make a run, but that's pretty unlikely [and, actually, wouldn't we have to waive Kelly's rights to sign a max FA? So maybe it's only if we make a trade])

There's also no way Bradley or Smart get moved for Hayward.  That's just way too much to give up for a sign and trade.  DJax, Mickey, etc. would be traded into other teams' cap space before that would happen.  One of them would probably be moved if we signed Hayward, but in a move for a good big man, not as a throw in in a sign and trade (no to mention that doing a sign and trade would hard cap us and prevent us from using the mid level exception, so it should be avoided)
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Re: The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem
« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2016, 11:35:35 AM »

Offline Cman

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The OP is raising an excellent point.

A few thoughts:

(1) This suggests that many of the players currently on the team are going to be traded or let go in FA. Of them all, I'm most interested in what happens with IT. He's a unique player; can he get market value elsewhere, or can the Cs keep him relatively cheaply?

(2) Over the next couple of years, as teams start to fill their rosters with $20+M/year players, rookies and young players will become relative bargains. In principle, this should make the first round picks that the Cs currently have more valuable than in the past.

The OP was assuming that IT, AB, Olynyk, and Smart would be retained, and has listed his salary guesses for each (I think he's a little low on Smart, but overall he's got the right idea). Want to make sure you saw that.

Yes, I saw that. To me it suggests that we *won't* be able to keep all of them.
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Re: The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem
« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2016, 11:36:33 AM »

Offline alldaboston

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I just can't see us resigning Olynyk.  Similar to what happened with Turner, he's gonna price himself out of here.  There's no way Danny spends that kind of money on a bench player when we're still looking for another star (if we sign another star like, say, Hayward, or trade for one like Boogie, then he might resign him just to make a run, but that's pretty unlikely [and, actually, wouldn't we have to waive Kelly's rights to sign a max FA? So maybe it's only if we make a trade])

There's also no way Bradley or Smart get moved for Hayward.  That's just way too much to give up for a sign and trade.  DJax, Mickey, etc. would be traded into other teams' cap space before that would happen.  One of them would probably be moved if we signed Hayward, but in a move for a good big man, not as a throw in in a sign and trade (no to mention that doing a sign and trade would hard cap us and prevent us from using the mid level exception, so it should be avoided)

Are sign and trades even a legal move anymore? I haven't seen a move like that happen in a few years (unless i'm forgetting something).
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Re: The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem
« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2016, 11:45:04 AM »

Offline saltlover

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Taking a look at the upcoming salary and roster.  Boston is going to have to make some real decisions, both on direction and players.  Obviously what that direction is will dictate the type of roster moves being made, but let's look at the future projected salary of the current players and for the sake of argument let's add a max salary slot this summer.

So with a max player signed in the 2017 summer, the 2018/19 salaries will look something like this:

Horford 29 million
Other Max FA 28 million (could be a bit more or less depending on cap and years of service of player)
Crowder 7.3 million
Brown 5.1 million
BKN 17 5 million (based on current scale not new CBA)
BKN 18 4 million (based on current scale not new CBA)
Rozier 3 million
Zizic, Yab, BOS 18 4 million (based on current scale not new CBA)

That is 85.4 million from 10 players and doesn't even account for the increase in rookie salaries expected with the new CBA or any possible adjustments for the max slot.  If you keep the 4 rotation players from the current team not identified above you would probably be looking at something like:

Thomas 22 million
Bradley 18 million
Olynyk 16 million (2nd year of his extension)
Smart 12 million

I think those are reasonable enough salaries barring injury or drastic changes in play.  That adds another 68 million.  Add that to the 85.4 million and you are looking at a payroll of 153.4 million dollars with one open roster spot (for Mickey or Jackson or someone else). 

There is no way Boston is holding a 150 million plus payroll.  None at all.  That is just too high even for a legit contender (and I'm not sure that team is a legit contender depending of course on who that other max free agent is).  That is why I think Boston will look to move players and assets either at the deadline this year or this summer for a player.  Boston has to consolidate and upgrade the starting lineup and just adding a max contract player in free agency doesn't alleviate these other issues.  So if Hayward signs, I would absolutely expect Bradley and/or Smart to get moved (maybe even for Hayward).  If Boston adds a PF/C, I would expect Olynyk to be let go, etc.   There is of course the other option of trading those guys before they reach free agency and building around the young players, though that is counterintuitive to the Horford signing and I don't think all that likely.

Even if Boston doesn't sign a max free agent, it is still going to have a salary crunch such that I think that some of the players get moved or are just not re-signed.  125 million for a basically the same team as now just isn't going to happen.  Team isn't good enough to carry that type of payroll. 

So Boston is going to have a real salary/roster problem in the very near future.  One that needs to get resolved soon and likely before the start of next season.  So expect some real moves to be made.

I just can't see us resigning Olynyk.  Similar to what happened with Turner, he's gonna price himself out of here.  There's no way Danny spends that kind of money on a bench player when we're still looking for another star (if we sign another star like, say, Hayward, or trade for one like Boogie, then he might resign him just to make a run, but that's pretty unlikely [and, actually, wouldn't we have to waive Kelly's rights to sign a max FA? So maybe it's only if we make a trade])

There's also no way Bradley or Smart get moved for Hayward.  That's just way too much to give up for a sign and trade.  DJax, Mickey, etc. would be traded into other teams' cap space before that would happen.  One of them would probably be moved if we signed Hayward, but in a move for a good big man, not as a throw in in a sign and trade (no to mention that doing a sign and trade would hard cap us and prevent us from using the mid level exception, so it should be avoided)

Using cap space to sign Hayward would prevent us from using the MLE.  A sign-and-trade would hard cap us, but we would likely be pretty far below the hard cap post-transaction.  We would still be allowed it use the MLE.

I don't think an S&T makes much sense or will happen, but I want to clarify.

I also think Olynyk will likely be brought back.  He is a restricted free agent, which will weaken his negotiating position a bit.  A team like Portland won't come and offer him mega-dollars on day 1, because teams target unrestricted free agents first.  By the time a team might move on Olynyk, the Celtics would presumably have used up their cap dollars and would be likely to match.  A team would have to go ridiculously high to scare the Celtics off, and while I'm definitely an Olynyk convert at this time, he doesn't seem the type of player another team would make such an offer to. 

Re: The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem
« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2016, 11:48:02 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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If we add a max guy around $28 MM plus some prime draft picks, I could see this team contending. If the team contends then I could see them shelling out around $150 especially if the salary cap continues to rise ending north of $110 mm.

For a while I've been assuming a trade for a star will solve our roster/future salary issues. However, with every passing year that a big trade doesn't happen I become less sure one will.

In the past Danny has shown that he prefers to collect as many assets as possible in case a star becomes available in trade. I think Danny will continue this strategy and go over the cap to sign our own players just so they can assets we use in a trade in the future. Recently Danny has tried to remain flexible with his cap sheet, but I think that ends this summer or next. Since the cap space will evaporate in two years when we need to re-sign our own guys I expect the C's to make a big signing in the next two years even if it further clogs the roster.
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Re: The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem
« Reply #9 on: December 05, 2016, 11:56:30 AM »

Offline saltlover

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The OP is raising an excellent point.

A few thoughts:

(1) This suggests that many of the players currently on the team are going to be traded or let go in FA. Of them all, I'm most interested in what happens with IT. He's a unique player; can he get market value elsewhere, or can the Cs keep him relatively cheaply?

(2) Over the next couple of years, as teams start to fill their rosters with $20+M/year players, rookies and young players will become relative bargains. In principle, this should make the first round picks that the Cs currently have more valuable than in the past.

The OP was assuming that IT, AB, Olynyk, and Smart would be retained, and has listed his salary guesses for each (I think he's a little low on Smart, but overall he's got the right idea). Want to make sure you saw that.

Yes, I saw that. To me it suggests that we *won't* be able to keep all of them.

Got it.  I think we won't because it's a guard-heavy draft, and I expect that if we get another top 3 pick from Brooklyn this year and don't trade it, as the OP assumes, one of our current top 3 guards will wind up elsewhere in the summer of 2018.  I don't think that the Celtics budget would require that, but I think the minutes crunch in the backcourt would just make someone look to sign elsewhere.

If the CBA rumors are true, and the revenue pool is indeed increasing, the salary cap will continue to expand the next few years.  A $160 million payroll might not be excessively over the luxury tax.  In the height of the Big 3, ownership proved willing to be a significant taxpayer because they had a chanpsionship level team.  If a max free agent this summer brings the team to that level again, I think you could see them spend big for a couple of seasons.

Re: The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem
« Reply #10 on: December 05, 2016, 12:14:33 PM »

Online BitterJim

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I just can't see us resigning Olynyk.  Similar to what happened with Turner, he's gonna price himself out of here.  There's no way Danny spends that kind of money on a bench player when we're still looking for another star (if we sign another star like, say, Hayward, or trade for one like Boogie, then he might resign him just to make a run, but that's pretty unlikely [and, actually, wouldn't we have to waive Kelly's rights to sign a max FA? So maybe it's only if we make a trade])

There's also no way Bradley or Smart get moved for Hayward.  That's just way too much to give up for a sign and trade.  DJax, Mickey, etc. would be traded into other teams' cap space before that would happen.  One of them would probably be moved if we signed Hayward, but in a move for a good big man, not as a throw in in a sign and trade (no to mention that doing a sign and trade would hard cap us and prevent us from using the mid level exception, so it should be avoided)

Are sign and trades even a legal move anymore? I haven't seen a move like that happen in a few years (unless i'm forgetting something).

Yes, they're still legal.  The latest CBA changed the rules, though, so now the contract you are able to offer a player through a sign and trade follows the same rules as if you signed them normally (4 years max, 5% max raises), instead of the former rules where you could sign them to a contract with the same rules as the team trading them to you (5 years max, 7.5% raises).  You also cannot go over the tax apron if you make a sign and trade, so the incentives are really gone for teams.  They'll still happen from time to time, but they've certainly gotten rarer and less impactful

The most recent one I could find was Troy Daniels being signed and traded from the Hornets to the Grizzlies (not really a hard-hitting move) Source
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Re: The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem
« Reply #11 on: December 05, 2016, 03:29:28 PM »

Offline wdleehi

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Other things to look at:


What teams are going to have cap space?   The last offseason, everyone did.   May have inflated salaries a little.


What teams have important rookies near the end of their contract?   How much over do teams want to go cap?


What are rookies going to be making in the future?


Yes, the Celtics have decisions to make, but it doesn't mean everyone is going to get a huge pay day. 

Re: The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem
« Reply #12 on: December 05, 2016, 03:56:07 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I just can't see us resigning Olynyk.  Similar to what happened with Turner, he's gonna price himself out of here.  There's no way Danny spends that kind of money on a bench player when we're still looking for another star (if we sign another star like, say, Hayward, or trade for one like Boogie, then he might resign him just to make a run, but that's pretty unlikely [and, actually, wouldn't we have to waive Kelly's rights to sign a max FA? So maybe it's only if we make a trade])

There's also no way Bradley or Smart get moved for Hayward.  That's just way too much to give up for a sign and trade.  DJax, Mickey, etc. would be traded into other teams' cap space before that would happen.  One of them would probably be moved if we signed Hayward, but in a move for a good big man, not as a throw in in a sign and trade (no to mention that doing a sign and trade would hard cap us and prevent us from using the mid level exception, so it should be avoided)

Are sign and trades even a legal move anymore? I haven't seen a move like that happen in a few years (unless i'm forgetting something).

Yes, they're still legal.  The latest CBA changed the rules, though, so now the contract you are able to offer a player through a sign and trade follows the same rules as if you signed them normally (4 years max, 5% max raises), instead of the former rules where you could sign them to a contract with the same rules as the team trading them to you (5 years max, 7.5% raises).  You also cannot go over the tax apron if you make a sign and trade, so the incentives are really gone for teams.  They'll still happen from time to time, but they've certainly gotten rarer and less impactful

The most recent one I could find was Troy Daniels being signed and traded from the Hornets to the Grizzlies (not really a hard-hitting move) Source

Yes, at this point, the only real motivation for anyone to do a sign-and-trade is when

a) A Bird-Rights free agent from Team A wants to be signed by Team B but
b) Team B is over the cap.

In that scenario, there is a motivation for Team B to get Team A to facilitate a sign-and-trade so that  they can sign the player using Team A's Bird Rights.   

How much incentive they need to pay Team A for that help depends on the circumstances.  If they have alternate ways to get the cap space needed to sign the player (perhaps a deal with another team) then they may only pay a token modest draft pick or two.   That price would go up if the salary the team A is taking is not expiring.   If there is absolutely no way to get the deal done without Team A helping, then the deal might get pricy.

Aside from disincentive caused by the inability to do a S&T with full Bird-Rights Max Contract terms, another big reason why we've seen fewer S&T transactions in recent years is because the huge rise in the cap made it so most teams were able to sign free agents without needing such maneuvers.

That will start to come back as team budgets and the cap settle down over the next few years.
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Re: The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem
« Reply #13 on: December 05, 2016, 03:59:38 PM »

Offline Ed Hollison

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Keep in mind that the three lottery picks from Brooklyn – Jaylen Brown, BRK ’17, and BRK’18 – are supposed to be cheap replacements for veterans, meaning that they should help you save money. So for instance, if Brown becomes a good player then you can probably do without Crowder; if you draft a stud guard this summer you probably don’t have to re-sign Smart of Bradley; etc etc. You will not be paying all three of these draft picks AND re-signing all of your veterans. That is the point of draft picks, after all.
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Re: The Free Agency/Roster Salary Problem
« Reply #14 on: December 05, 2016, 04:14:23 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Keep in mind that the three lottery picks from Brooklyn – Jaylen Brown, BRK ’17, and BRK’18 – are supposed to be cheap replacements for veterans, meaning that they should help you save money. So for instance, if Brown becomes a good player then you can probably do without Crowder; if you draft a stud guard this summer you probably don’t have to re-sign Smart of Bradley; etc etc. You will not be paying all three of these draft picks AND re-signing all of your veterans. That is the point of draft picks, after all.

Yes and no.  Brown and Crowder become free agents the same year.  Before that point, Crowder will only make $1-2 million more per season, so you're not going to get significant savings moving from one to the other.  Meanwhile, IT and Bradley both hit free agency in 2018.  Is the 2017 Brooklyn pick in his second year or 2018 Brooklyn pick in his rookie year likely to be an effective replacement for either, especially in a universe where we're a true championship contender?