Boston.com Analyzes A Potential Cousins Trade (Warning: It's Scary)

[TrueFan]

If you're giving up Smart, Jaylen, Brooklyn 2017 and Brooklyn 2018 ... our two players with theoretical star potential and our only two picks that have a legitimate shot at landing a star... You're basically saying, "Ok, this move is the one that's going to legitimately make us a champion". 

And unfortunately as good as Cousins is, merely adding him to this team probably still doesn't make us as good as the true contenders in this league. 

At some point you need to weigh the impact of Cousins (whether it makes us as good as the Golden State Globetrotters) with the potential impact of signing a star via free agency and the hope that 1 or more of Smart, Jaylen and the Brooklyn picks develop into stars.

Exactly. We are essentially all in at that point. Not only are we a step below the Cavs still but we are peaking in the same 3-5 year window as the Warriors who might be unbeatable once they get to the playoffs and had time to gel.

[Tr1boy]

Danny prob does package 1... Unless we win it all it could haunt us a long time. Especially if Cousins does not resign a long term contract

Still dont think cousins and IT work well ...

[positivitize]

Too much. We've got a good hand, we can afford to stand pat.

I think IT + Horford + Cousins + Crowder + Bradley turns us into the LA CLIPPERS EAST. A good team, sure, but with our bench depleted from the trade, probably not beating either the Cavs or GS. It also strips us of picks and would make it difficult to improve via draft, trade, or FA.

It's not worth trading all of that to go from 9-13th best in the league (with room to grow) to 3rd/4th best in the league (without room to grow). No Deal.

[LarBrd33]

If you're giving up Smart, Jaylen, Brooklyn 2017 and Brooklyn 2018 ... our two players with theoretical star potential and our only two picks that have a legitimate shot at landing a star... You're basically saying, "Ok, this move is the one that's going to legitimately make us a champion". 

And unfortunately as good as Cousins is, merely adding him to this team probably still doesn't make us as good as the true contenders in this league. 

At some point you need to weigh the impact of Cousins (whether it makes us as good as the Golden State Globetrotters) with the potential impact of signing a star via free agency and the hope that 1 or more of Smart, Jaylen and the Brooklyn picks develop into stars.

Exactly. We are essentially all in at that point. Not only are we a step below the Cavs still but we are peaking in the same 3-5 year window as the Warriors who might be unbeatable once they get to the playoffs and had time to gel.

I would be disappointed if we gave up that much for Cousins.  That would be an overpay and it's unlikely to result in a championship without additional moves - additions moves we'd no longer have the assets to make.  We'd also no longer have the cap space to make additions this Summer.   

This 2017 draft is thought to be exceptional.  If Brooklyn continues to struggle and this draft is as great as early reports suggest, that pick alone might be more valuable than the package we gave up for Kevin Garnett.    To throw in Smart, Jaylen and the 2018 pick as well is hard to stomach for a player who only has a year and a half left on his contract and might be an attitude problem.    KG was a legitimate top 5 talent when we acquired him.  He was a leader.  As much as I'm supportive of adding Cousins talent, there's a lot of question marks about him and this isn't the kind of deal you should make in a Golden State Globetrotter world.   We should have our eyes on 8-10 years from now when Golden State slows down. 

[LarBrd33]

Curious how you guys rank those 4 assets (Smart, Jaylen, 2017 Brooklyn pick, 2018 Brooklyn pick) in terms of trade value.

I'd say the 2017 Brooklyn pick has the most trade value by far.

I'd be fine with giving up any 2 of these 3 assets for Cousins:  Smart, Jaylen, 2018 Brooklyn pick... but I'd be very hesitant to move that 2017 pick unless it's straight-up for a star.

[jpotter33]

If you're giving up Smart, Jaylen, Brooklyn 2017 and Brooklyn 2018 ... our two players with theoretical star potential and our only two picks that have a legitimate shot at landing a star... You're basically saying, "Ok, this move is the one that's going to legitimately make us a champion". 

And unfortunately as good as Cousins is, merely adding him to this team probably still doesn't make us as good as the true contenders in this league. 

At some point you need to weigh the impact of Cousins (whether it makes us as good as the Golden State Globetrotters) with the potential impact of signing a star via free agency and the hope that 1 or more of Smart, Jaylen and the Brooklyn picks develop into stars.

Though I think that deal is one significant asset too many, if you add Collison and Casspi to that trade then we're clearly true contenders, even being perfectly suited to beat both GS and Cleveland.

PG: IT, Rozier
SG: Bradley, Collison
SF: Crowder, Casspi
PF: Horford, JJ
C: Cousins, KO

That's easily a championship roster, and our size down low, excellent bench, and presence on the boards would ultimately make us perfectly suited to beat up on the Warriors and Cavs.

And let's also not overlook the fact that this would be the best three point shooting roster in the entire NBA from 1-10. Every single guy in that rotation is a legitimate threat from beyond the arc, which produces maximum spacing for guys like IT m, Rozier, and Collison to penetrate and for Boogie and Horford to work down low.

[Phantom255x]

Curious how you guys rank those 4 assets (Smart, Jaylen, 2017 Brooklyn pick, 2018 Brooklyn pick) in terms of trade value.

I'd say the 2017 Brooklyn pick has the most trade value by far.

I'd be fine with giving up any 2 of these 3 assets for Cousins:  Smart, Jaylen, 2018 Brooklyn pick... but I'd be very hesitant to move that 2017 pick unless it's straight-up for a star.

Most Value IMO:
(1) 2017 Brooklyn Pick
(2) Marcus Smart
(3) Jaylen Brown
(4) 2018 Brooklyn Pick

Don't get me wrong, I love JB, and the 2018 BKN pick is valuable too. BUT... if we don't have the 2018 BKN pick, it's likely because we traded it for a star player, and it's likely if we keep the 2017 pick, we get a star from that (hopefully). Brown may have the higher ceiling but for now, Smart > Brown, which is understandable because Brown is still in his rookie season. That's how I rank it for now.. Maybe other teams are higher on Brown right now than Smart, who knows. Also, with the logic I stated.. the 2018 pick isn't that valuable yet to the point where you can trade it straight up in a package deal for a star. It's 2017 pick as the starting point or "no thanks".

In a Cousins deal.. I would try and keep Smart (can you imagine Cousins-Horford front court duo, along with Smart the aggressor - that would be a physical team finally with some size and physicality)

[number_n9ne]

I really feel like these are high prices. What about:

To Boston:
Cousins $16,957,900
Temple $8,000,00
Casspi $2,936,814

total=27,894,714

To Sacramento:
Johnson $12,000,000
Zeller $8,000,000
Olynyk $3,094,014
Rozier $1,906,440
Mickey $1,223,653
2017 BKN swap
2018 BOS 1st
2019 LA 1st
2019 MEM 1st

total=$26,493,770

We roll the dice on Cousins (who could leave in 1.5 seasons), take back the long term salary in Temple, and take a flyer on Casspi. Sacramento gets the young PG they've been looking for in Rozier, Olynyk to stretch the floor next to WCS, a young prospect in Mickey, arguably our best pick from BKN, 3 other 1st round picks, and expiring salary. We get to keep Smart, Brown and the BKN 2018 pick.

[jpotter33]

Curious how you guys rank those 4 assets (Smart, Jaylen, 2017 Brooklyn pick, 2018 Brooklyn pick) in terms of trade value.

I'd say the 2017 Brooklyn pick has the most trade value by far.

I'd be fine with giving up any 2 of these 3 assets for Cousins:  Smart, Jaylen, 2018 Brooklyn pick... but I'd be very hesitant to move that 2017 pick unless it's straight-up for a star.

Most Value IMO:
(1) 2017 Brooklyn Pick
(2) Marcus Smart
(3) Jaylen Brown
(4) 2018 Brooklyn Pick

Don't get me wrong, I love JB, and the 2018 BKN pick is valuable too. BUT... if we don't have the 2018 BKN pick, it's likely because we traded it for a star player, and it's likely if we keep the 2017 pick, we get a star from that (hopefully). Brown may have the higher ceiling but for now, Smart > Brown, which is understandable because Brown is still in his rookie season. That's how I rank it for now.. Maybe otherr teams are higher in Brown right now than Smart, who knows. Also, with the logic I stated.. the 2018 pick isn't that valuable yet to the point where you can trade it straight up in a package deal for a star. It's 2017 pick as the starting point or "no thanks".

In a Cousins deal.. I would try and keep Smart (can you imagine Cousins-Horford front court duo, along with Smart the aggressor - that would be a physical team finally with some size and physicality)

Same here. I think Smart is the perfect kind of versatile defending glue guy that every championship contender has. If we could get back Collison and Casspi, I'd have no problem giving up Jaylen, Rozier, and the two Brooklyn picks for Cousins, as long as that trade is soon. That trade goes bye-bye after the deadline, and the longer they wait the more hesitant I am to do it.

Of course, Cousins would have to give a handshake agreement to resign for this to happen.

[Phantom255x]

I really feel like these are high prices. What about:

To Boston:
Cousins $16,957,900
Temple $8,000,00
Casspi $2,936,814

total=27,894,714

To Sacramento:
Johnson $12,000,000
Zeller $8,000,000
Olynyk $3,094,014
Rozier $1,906,440
Mickey $1,223,653
2017 BKN swap
2018 BOS 1st
2019 LA 1st
2019 MEM 1st

total=$26,493,770

We roll the dice on Cousins (who could leave in 1.5 seasons), take back the long term salary in Temple, and take a flyer on Casspi. Sacramento gets the young PG they've been looking for in Rozier, Olynyk to stretch the floor next to WCS, a young prospect in Mickey, arguably our best pick from BKN, 3 other 1st round picks, and expiring salary. We get to keep Smart, Brown and the BKN 2018 pick.

This is a case where I see SAC saying yes, but Ainge saying "HELL NO". That decimates our bench honestly. Also we keep the 2018 Brooklyn Pick, but not many future picks left to grow with, and Casspi is purely a rental.

[Phantom255x]

Curious how you guys rank those 4 assets (Smart, Jaylen, 2017 Brooklyn pick, 2018 Brooklyn pick) in terms of trade value.

I'd say the 2017 Brooklyn pick has the most trade value by far.

I'd be fine with giving up any 2 of these 3 assets for Cousins:  Smart, Jaylen, 2018 Brooklyn pick... but I'd be very hesitant to move that 2017 pick unless it's straight-up for a star.

Most Value IMO:
(1) 2017 Brooklyn Pick
(2) Marcus Smart
(3) Jaylen Brown
(4) 2018 Brooklyn Pick

Don't get me wrong, I love JB, and the 2018 BKN pick is valuable too. BUT... if we don't have the 2018 BKN pick, it's likely because we traded it for a star player, and it's likely if we keep the 2017 pick, we get a star from that (hopefully). Brown may have the higher ceiling but for now, Smart > Brown, which is understandable because Brown is still in his rookie season. That's how I rank it for now.. Maybe otherr teams are higher in Brown right now than Smart, who knows. Also, with the logic I stated.. the 2018 pick isn't that valuable yet to the point where you can trade it straight up in a package deal for a star. It's 2017 pick as the starting point or "no thanks".

In a Cousins deal.. I would try and keep Smart (can you imagine Cousins-Horford front court duo, along with Smart the aggressor - that would be a physical team finally with some size and physicality)

Same here. I think Smart is the perfect kind of versatile defending glue guy that every championship contender has. If we could get back Collison and Casspi, I'd have no problem giving up Jaylen, Rozier, and the two Brooklyn picks for Cousins, as long as that trade is soon. That trade goes bye-bye after the deadline, and the longer they wait the more hesitant I am to do it.

Of course, Cousins would have to give a handshake agreement to resign for this to happen.

The way I see it, if Cousins isn't dealt by the deadline, the Kings won't trade him at all before Cousins hits FA.

Even if they do, they won't get back much value for an "expiring deal", which would be Cousins next season.

[number_n9ne]

I really feel like these are high prices. What about:

To Boston:
Cousins $16,957,900
Temple $8,000,00
Casspi $2,936,814

total=27,894,714

To Sacramento:
Johnson $12,000,000
Zeller $8,000,000
Olynyk $3,094,014
Rozier $1,906,440
Mickey $1,223,653
2017 BKN swap
2018 BOS 1st
2019 LA 1st
2019 MEM 1st

total=$26,493,770

We roll the dice on Cousins (who could leave in 1.5 seasons), take back the long term salary in Temple, and take a flyer on Casspi. Sacramento gets the young PG they've been looking for in Rozier, Olynyk to stretch the floor next to WCS, a young prospect in Mickey, arguably our best pick from BKN, 3 other 1st round picks, and expiring salary. We get to keep Smart, Brown and the BKN 2018 pick.

This is a case where I see SAC saying yes, but Ainge saying "HELL NO". That decimates our bench honestly. Also we keep the 2018 Brooklyn Pick, but not many future picks left to grow with, and Casspi is purely a rental.

So you think Ainge says no to getting Cousins without giving up our core, Smart, Brown, or BKN 18? That's nonsense.

[green_bballers13]

Yes, bye bye bench, but are any of them irreplaceable?

If Danny has IT, Horford, and Cousins, I'm sure he'll have no problem filling out a bench in the offseason.

[TrueFan]

If you're giving up Smart, Jaylen, Brooklyn 2017 and Brooklyn 2018 ... our two players with theoretical star potential and our only two picks that have a legitimate shot at landing a star... You're basically saying, "Ok, this move is the one that's going to legitimately make us a champion". 

And unfortunately as good as Cousins is, merely adding him to this team probably still doesn't make us as good as the true contenders in this league. 

At some point you need to weigh the impact of Cousins (whether it makes us as good as the Golden State Globetrotters) with the potential impact of signing a star via free agency and the hope that 1 or more of Smart, Jaylen and the Brooklyn picks develop into stars.

Exactly. We are essentially all in at that point. Not only are we a step below the Cavs still but we are peaking in the same 3-5 year window as the Warriors who might be unbeatable once they get to the playoffs and had time to gel.

I would be disappointed if we gave up that much for Cousins.  That would be an overpay and it's unlikely to result in a championship without additional moves - additions moves we'd no longer have the assets to make.  We'd also no longer have the cap space to make additions this Summer.   

This 2017 draft is thought to be exceptional.  If Brooklyn continues to struggle and this draft is as great as early reports suggest, that pick alone might be more valuable than the package we gave up for Kevin Garnett.    To throw in Smart, Jaylen and the 2018 pick as well is hard to stomach for a player who only has a year and a half left on his contract and might be an attitude problem.    KG was a legitimate top 5 talent when we acquired him.  He was a leader.  As much as I'm supportive of adding Cousins talent, there's a lot of question marks about him and this isn't the kind of deal you should make in a Golden State Globetrotter world.   We should have our eyes on 8-10 years from now when Golden State slows down.

Nice post. The only thing I disagree is the Window for the Warriors. I think 6 years out they will either be broken up or no longer the same players. I'm capping their run at 6 years.

[Phantom255x]

I really feel like these are high prices. What about:

To Boston:
Cousins $16,957,900
Temple $8,000,00
Casspi $2,936,814

total=27,894,714

To Sacramento:
Johnson $12,000,000
Zeller $8,000,000
Olynyk $3,094,014
Rozier $1,906,440
Mickey $1,223,653
2017 BKN swap
2018 BOS 1st
2019 LA 1st
2019 MEM 1st

total=$26,493,770

We roll the dice on Cousins (who could leave in 1.5 seasons), take back the long term salary in Temple, and take a flyer on Casspi. Sacramento gets the young PG they've been looking for in Rozier, Olynyk to stretch the floor next to WCS, a young prospect in Mickey, arguably our best pick from BKN, 3 other 1st round picks, and expiring salary. We get to keep Smart, Brown and the BKN 2018 pick.

This is a case where I see SAC saying yes, but Ainge saying "HELL NO". That decimates our bench honestly. Also we keep the 2018 Brooklyn Pick, but not many future picks left to grow with, and Casspi is purely a rental.

So you think Ainge says no to getting Cousins without giving up our core, Smart, Brown, or BKN 18? That's nonsense.

Hey, I WOULD make the deal. However... Ainge might not be willing to do the deal.

I would LOVE to add Cousins while keeping Horford, IT, Smart, Bradley, Brown.

But what's our bench exactly?