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Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?

Yes
60 (63.8%)
No
34 (36.2%)

Total Members Voted: 94

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Re: Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?
« Reply #165 on: December 09, 2016, 09:22:26 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Giannis was a missed opportunity but to pretend that it was a no brainer for DA to pick him is just ludicrous. There were huge question marks over GA, the biggest one being could he actually play basketball or was he just an athlete? Even after his rookie season that question wasn't answered.

KO was a good pick for his draft position. He is quite clearly in the top 13 players of that draft. The fact that someone picked behind him managed to overcome all his question marks does not make him a bad pick. For every Giannis there is a Fab Melo and some.

I think Cs fans are yearning for our next superstar and in place of that atm we are putting unfair expectations on our recent picks. Smart, KO and Sully have all been criticised for not being perfect players but what people forget is that none of them are called Michael Jordan...
I don't think KO was clearly in the top 13 players of the draft at all. 
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Re: Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?
« Reply #166 on: December 09, 2016, 09:46:17 AM »

Offline ederson

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Giannis was a missed opportunity but to pretend that it was a no brainer for DA to pick him is just ludicrous. There were huge question marks over GA, the biggest one being could he actually play basketball or was he just an athlete? Even after his rookie season that question wasn't answered.

KO was a good pick for his draft position. He is quite clearly in the top 13 players of that draft. The fact that someone picked behind him managed to overcome all his question marks does not make him a bad pick. For every Giannis there is a Fab Melo and some.

I think Cs fans are yearning for our next superstar and in place of that atm we are putting unfair expectations on our recent picks. Smart, KO and Sully have all been criticised for not being perfect players but what people forget is that none of them are called Michael Jordan...
I don't think KO was clearly in the top 13 players of the draft at all.

he is 1000% about GA though.
pick 5 random members of this site ... They form a decent  team in the Greek A2 league.

Re: Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?
« Reply #167 on: December 09, 2016, 08:12:21 PM »

Offline Big333223

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It wasn't a weak draft at all. And even if it was then that would mean there were a lot of bad picks and he was one of them.

It's very easy to name 3 guys picked after him we'd rather have by a ton and a couple others that are better difference makers or just better.

You also have to ignore that Steven Adams was picked one pick ahead of him. Pretty huge drop off
2013 was most definitely a weak draft. Certainly in top end talent (Giannis is looking like the only all star in the entire draft). It's looking more and more like there were solid players deeper in the draft but certainly not more than you'd find in any other decent year.

Of course there were better players after Kelly, but let's not forget that Anthony Bennett, Cody Zeller, Ben Mclemore, Trey Burke, and the ROY Michael Carter-Williams (who already has one foot out of the league) were selected ahead of him. For his position in the draft and the type of talent around him, he was a pretty good pick. Not great, pretty good.

But claiming he was a bad pick just because there were better players after him is like saying Nikola Vucevic was a bad pick at 16 in 2011 because Jimmy Butler and Isaiah Thomas were still on the board.
Did we just compare KO to Vucevic? Did that just happen?

It's more like comparing him to JR Giddens
No, I didn't. Try reading that again.
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Re: Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?
« Reply #168 on: December 09, 2016, 08:20:27 PM »

Offline Big333223

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It wasn't a weak draft at all. And even if it was then that would mean there were a lot of bad picks and he was one of them.

It's very easy to name 3 guys picked after him we'd rather have by a ton and a couple others that are better difference makers or just better.

You also have to ignore that Steven Adams was picked one pick ahead of him. Pretty huge drop off
2013 was most definitely a weak draft. Certainly in top end talent (Giannis is looking like the only all star in the entire draft). It's looking more and more like there were solid players deeper in the draft but certainly not more than you'd find in any other decent year.

Of course there were better players after Kelly, but let's not forget that Anthony Bennett, Cody Zeller, Ben Mclemore, Trey Burke, and the ROY Michael Carter-Williams (who already has one foot out of the league) were selected ahead of him. For his position in the draft and the type of talent around him, he was a pretty good pick. Not great, pretty good.

But claiming he was a bad pick just because there were better players after him is like saying Nikola Vucevic was a bad pick at 16 in 2011 because Jimmy Butler and Isaiah Thomas were still on the board.

The criticism is legitimate because Giannis was only picked two picks later. It's not like you're just cherry picking some guy in the 2nd round who turned out to be good and exclaiming, "See! Why didn't Ainge take him???" Also, Ainge clearly showed interest. He went to see Giannis play in person.

Saying Giannis was a humongous missed opportunity does not necessarily mean one hates Olynyk or thinks he is a bust. They're not mutually exclusive.

Ultimately Ainge will be judged by championships and the way to win one is by drafting or acquiring stars. Drafting OK role players like Olynyk is nice, but ultimately doesn't make a huge difference in the larger picture. Look at Sullinger - a nice pick, helped us win some games. Unfortunately, he wasn't good enough to be the centerpiece in a deal for a star, and he also wasn't good enough to be re-signed and decreasing our flexibility. Olynyk will be in the same situation this offseason.
This feels like putting a lot of words in my mouth. Obviously Giannis was a missed opportunity. That doesn't make Olynyk a bad pick at his position, in that draft. We'd all have rather gotten Giannis and has him develop into the player he is today in Boston, but there was by no means a guarantee that he'd be able to do that.

For where and when he was drafted, Olynyk was a fine choice.
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Re: Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?
« Reply #169 on: December 10, 2016, 08:32:02 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
K.O. is only invisible to those who refuse to see.  He always plays solid D, He always sets great screens, he always is a really good floor spacer etc.  People love to judge him by what they see in the box score and very often the box score is only telling a small part of the story.  His +/- numbers have been ridiculous when compared to his teammates over all of his 4 years and it is no accident.  His excellent defensive ratings are no accident either and in addition to all the little things he does well results in a player that makes a very positive impact.

And it is clear that you refuse to see when he has played bad.  I know oracles are supposed to see the future but let's take a look at these +/- numbers this year.  I watch the games, I would wager I have seen a great deal more than you.

Taking out some of the games just after he missed we see against GS this year -20, our first game against DET -12, -7 vs MIN, so one could say he was invisible in those games.

He has player in 17  games this year, we have stats for =/- for 16 of them.

Games -10 and under 2
Games -1 to -10         3
Games  0 to 10          6
Games  +10 or over    5

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olynyke01/gamelog/2017

In other words all over the place, which you refuse to see.   More bad than good, though but a a These are game stats or facts, not hyperbole or opinion.  My point, is there are games where he has a net negative impact and it is almost one third thus far, this year.   His PPG are down, despite his MPG being up,  His FG% is better, his 3P% is not, his RPG are up his BPG and SPG are down.  Most of these are marginal changes but his PPG are down by 2 and his 3P shooting is down by almost 5%.   He fairs slighty worse with advanced stats.

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/2489663/kelly-olynyk

His WS this year has plummeted from 4.1 to .7  which is a big decline, there was also a drop in defensive WS.    His PER is 12.62  which is down from his career averages of 15.5.    So maybe it is you who is not seeing stuff correctly.  It could be coming back from surgery, I realize and I hope that is what is explaining the drop.   But aggression has never been his strong suit and it worries me.   

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olynyke01.html

Right now, it seems that he will have a good game when he hits his first shot and when he doesen't his confidence wanes and he does not play as well.   He has to get over this mentality.

It was one of the worst drafts ever, in talent, this site has him ranked 6th in win shares for the class.

Some interesting tidbits

Quote
Not a single player from the 2013 draft has made an all-star team or all-NBA team yet,

These sites redraft would be"
1. Rudy Gobert (No. 27 pick in 2013 draft)
2. Mason Plumlee (No. 22)
3. Gorgui Dieng (No. 21)
4. Steven Adams (No. 12)
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo (No. 15)
6. Kelly Olynyk  No. 13)
7. Cody Zeller (No. 4)
8. Victor Oladipo (No. 2)
9. Jeff Withey (No. 39)
10. Nerlens Noel (No. 6)
11. Otto Porter (No. 3)
12. Andre Roberson (No. 26)
13. Tony Mitchell (No. 37)
14. Lucas Nogueira (No. 16)
15. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (No. 8)
16. C.J. McCollum (No. 10)
17. Mike Muscala (No. 44)
18. Solomon Hill (No. 23)
19. Allen Crabbe (No. 31)
20. James Ennis (No. 50)
21. Michael Carter-Williams (No. 11)
22. Joffrey Lauvergne (No. 55)
23. Raul Neto (No. 47)
24. Ryan Kelly (No. 48)
25. Reggie Bullock (No. 25)
26. Trey Burke (No. 9)
27. Alex Len (No. 5)
28. Isaiah Canaan (No. 34)
29. Ben McLemore (No. 7)
30. Tim Hardaway (No. 24)


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2016/07/15/man-the-2013-nba-draft-was-truly-awful-actually-it-was-the-worst-ever/?utm_term=.7241a6358131


Re: Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?
« Reply #170 on: December 10, 2016, 09:01:23 AM »

Offline ssspence

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Number of players taken soon after Kelly in the 2013 draft who are better NBA players right now? Five.

Number of points last night against the division's best team? Five.
Mike

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Re: Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?
« Reply #171 on: December 10, 2016, 10:56:32 AM »

Offline The Oracle

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Quote
K.O. is only invisible to those who refuse to see.  He always plays solid D, He always sets great screens, he always is a really good floor spacer etc.  People love to judge him by what they see in the box score and very often the box score is only telling a small part of the story.  His +/- numbers have been ridiculous when compared to his teammates over all of his 4 years and it is no accident.  His excellent defensive ratings are no accident either and in addition to all the little things he does well results in a player that makes a very positive impact.

And it is clear that you refuse to see when he has played bad.  I know oracles are supposed to see the future but let's take a look at these +/- numbers this year.  I watch the games, I would wager I have seen a great deal more than you.

Taking out some of the games just after he missed we see against GS this year -20, our first game against DET -12, -7 vs MIN, so one could say he was invisible in those games.

He has player in 17  games this year, we have stats for =/- for 16 of them.

Games -10 and under 2
Games -1 to -10         3
Games  0 to 10          6
Games  +10 or over    5

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olynyke01/gamelog/2017

In other words all over the place, which you refuse to see.   More bad than good, though but a a These are game stats or facts, not hyperbole or opinion.  My point, is there are games where he has a net negative impact and it is almost one third thus far, this year.   His PPG are down, despite his MPG being up,  His FG% is better, his 3P% is not, his RPG are up his BPG and SPG are down.  Most of these are marginal changes but his PPG are down by 2 and his 3P shooting is down by almost 5%.   He fairs slighty worse with advanced stats.

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/2489663/kelly-olynyk

His WS this year has plummeted from 4.1 to .7  which is a big decline, there was also a drop in defensive WS.    His PER is 12.62  which is down from his career averages of 15.5.    So maybe it is you who is not seeing stuff correctly.  It could be coming back from surgery, I realize and I hope that is what is explaining the drop.   But aggression has never been his strong suit and it worries me.   

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olynyke01.html

Right now, it seems that he will have a good game when he hits his first shot and when he doesen't his confidence wanes and he does not play as well.   He has to get over this mentality.

It was one of the worst drafts ever, in talent, this site has him ranked 6th in win shares for the class.

Some interesting tidbits

Quote
Not a single player from the 2013 draft has made an all-star team or all-NBA team yet,

These sites redraft would be"
1. Rudy Gobert (No. 27 pick in 2013 draft)
2. Mason Plumlee (No. 22)
3. Gorgui Dieng (No. 21)
4. Steven Adams (No. 12)
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo (No. 15)
6. Kelly Olynyk  No. 13)
7. Cody Zeller (No. 4)
8. Victor Oladipo (No. 2)
9. Jeff Withey (No. 39)
10. Nerlens Noel (No. 6)
11. Otto Porter (No. 3)
12. Andre Roberson (No. 26)
13. Tony Mitchell (No. 37)
14. Lucas Nogueira (No. 16)
15. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (No. 8)
16. C.J. McCollum (No. 10)
17. Mike Muscala (No. 44)
18. Solomon Hill (No. 23)
19. Allen Crabbe (No. 31)
20. James Ennis (No. 50)
21. Michael Carter-Williams (No. 11)
22. Joffrey Lauvergne (No. 55)
23. Raul Neto (No. 47)
24. Ryan Kelly (No. 48)
25. Reggie Bullock (No. 25)
26. Trey Burke (No. 9)
27. Alex Len (No. 5)
28. Isaiah Canaan (No. 34)
29. Ben McLemore (No. 7)
30. Tim Hardaway (No. 24)


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2016/07/15/man-the-2013-nba-draft-was-truly-awful-actually-it-was-the-worst-ever/?utm_term=.7241a6358131


+/- numbers are meaningless on an individual game basis.  An individual player can play near perfectly one game and end up -20 and +20 in another, they are not an evaluation of how anyone played in a single game.  Over the course of a season they tell a much clearer picture of a players true value, although even then they're not perfect.

The winshare stats you posted are cumulative over the course of a season and he has only played 17 games this year.

PER is one of the worst metrics ever created.  It is worthless as a tool to evaluate players.

What does his draft class have to do with evaluating him as a player?

Basketball statistics can very easily lead people astray if you don't know exactly what you are looking at.  Olynyk will likely pull 20 million plus a year contract offers in the off season (may very well pull a max offer) as his skill set is in extremely high demand and for good reason.  Wait and see if you don't believe me.

Re: Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?
« Reply #172 on: December 10, 2016, 11:45:15 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
+/- numbers are meaningless on an individual game basis.  An individual player can play near perfectly one game and end up -20 and +20 in another, they are not an evaluation of how anyone played in a single game.  Over the course of a season they tell a much clearer picture of a players true value, although even then they're not perfect.

Your one who brought them up, besides his PER and other advanced stats are down, these are facts not just opinion,  which you offer. 

Quote
The winshare stats you posted are cumulative over the course of a season and he has only played 17 games this year.

PER is one of the worst metrics ever created.  It is worthless as a tool to evaluate players.

What does his draft class have to do with evaluating him as a player?

It was the original topic of this thread, perhaps you missed that and was discussed in other posts, did you read the whole thread, obviously not.


You point them out in this thread, with your post. 
Quote
  His +/- numbers have been ridiculous when compared to his teammates over all of his 4 years and it is no accident.  His excellent defensive ratings are no accident either and in addition to all the little things he does well results in a player that makes a very positive impact.

Then run for the hills when you're scrutinized.  You clearly brought advanced stats into the thread.   Don't act like you understand advanced stats better than some of the board because you seem to be incapable of using them to assist your argument.   Your not understanding what you see is a joke of an argument.   But sadly it is not the biggest joke which I address below.

Quote
Quote
Basketball statistics can very easily lead people astray if you don't know exactly what you are looking at.  Olynyk will likely pull 20 million plus a year contract offers in the off season (may very well pull a max offer) as his skill set is in extremely high demand and for good reason.  Wait and see if you don't believe me

 A max offer?   I fell out of my chair laughing when I read this comment.   This is quite frankly downright silly.  I don't believe you and I would be willing to bet you,that he won't receive a max offer.   This is not NBA LIVE or a video game.

As for what I see, I see a clear drop in production, stats bear this out thus far.    I hope is post surgery funk but it may not be.  I see a guy who too often is soft and non-aggressive though has some talent.   I see Ainge not extending him, which he could, as testing the kid to see where he stands or views him as a chess piece.   I think he will get money, but 20 million is a joke are you one of the ones who thought Sully would cash  in too?  They were wrong.  Your completely and utterly wrong that he deserves a max contract.   I think the GM craze on signing people for tons of cash is over.  You might  thank ET for that.

Re: Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?
« Reply #173 on: December 10, 2016, 12:58:46 PM »

Offline cltc5

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Please ship this bum along with zeller out yesterday.  Danny with another swing and miss draft pick

Re: Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?
« Reply #174 on: December 11, 2016, 05:16:29 PM »

Offline ssspence

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@ZachLowe_NBA

"Biggest thing that jumps out watching Jazz all week in person -- even more than on TV: Rudy Gobert got awesome. Playing with such force."

Not something that gets said about Kelly much.
Mike

(My name is not Mike)

Re: Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?
« Reply #175 on: December 11, 2016, 05:23:46 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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In his class, Olynyk is 8th in VORP, 7th in BPM, 9th in Win Shares, 12th in Assists, 11th in Rebounds, 11th in points, 15th in minutes, and 13th in games played.
Quote from: George W. Bush
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Re: Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?
« Reply #176 on: December 11, 2016, 05:33:08 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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Olynyk will likely pull 20 million plus a year contract offers in the off season (may very well pull a max offer)

[facepalm]




Re: Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?
« Reply #177 on: December 11, 2016, 10:21:43 PM »

Offline flybono

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No

Re: Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?
« Reply #178 on: December 11, 2016, 10:26:53 PM »

Offline TrueFan

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This has been a really tough start for Olynyk this year.

I think he has to toughen up. He gets punked a lot and it has to stop. If he just lets guys know what's up he could start playing some ball instead of getting all these cheap shots all the time.

Re: Is it safe to say that Kelly Olynyk was a good pick by Ainge now?
« Reply #179 on: December 11, 2016, 10:30:17 PM »

Offline ssspence

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I can't wait to have a legit star on this team. Something that could have been addressed din the 2013 draft.
Mike

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