Does everyone agree with this:
If Philadelphia has no incentive to trade Noel, they will only trade him if they feel they are getting at least equal value back. If Philadelphia has incentive to trade Noel, they would be willing to accept less than full value back in a trade. How much less depends on how much incentive. Philly could have some incentive to trade Noel and end up not trading him.
There's no point in entertaining any faux scenario where they don't have incentive to trade Noel, because it's absolutely undeniable that they do.
- Contract year that they don't want to pay next summer;
- Major logjam where the coach himself has even said he doesn't know where Noel gets minutes;
- Those things added together equate to major incentive to trade Noel.
This isn't even a question, and it's absolutely verified by numerous differing sources - they want to trade Noel and have every incentive and need to trade him.
I'm starting at the very beginning. So, you begin with how much value would Philly need to get back if they have zero incentive to trade Noel. That gives you a baseline value. Once you establish that price, then you can evaluate how much incentive they have to trade him by determining how much you think they are willing to come down on price in order to move him and get something in return.
Are they so desperate to trade him that they would move him for a second round pick if that was the best offer at the trade deadline? I don't think so. They can have an incentive to trade him, but that doesn't mean they will give him away. Anyone who thinks that Noel not being traded is proof that Philadelphia has no incentive to trade him is flat-out wrong.
You also need to consider that the 76ers have incentive to not look like a pushover in any trade, since they might be looking to move Okafor also and might end up having to choose between Saric and Simmons and trading one of them, so it may be preferable to get nothing back for Noel instead of giving too much of a discount off of the full price.
I pretty much agree with this. While theoretically something like a 2nd round pick would still be more valuable than just letting him walk, I don't expect them to trade Noel for something as terrible as that. That seems pretty obvious.
But I think something like Rozier and the Memphis pick is fair value for him right now, and they would jump at that if they have nothing better by the deadline.
I'm just saying that they do in reality have significant incentive to trade him, and it's nonsense to think that there is no incentive whatsoever to trade him. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean they'll give him away for a 2nd rounder either. And in the grand scheme of things, I think he ultimately SHOULD be worth much more than something like Rozier and the Memphis pick, but the Sixers have totally mismanaged the situation between his contract situation and the major logjam, which has dramatically decreased his trade value.
I see where your confusion is coming from.
It's the word "incentive".
"a thing that motivates or encourages one to do something."
You think I'm saying Philly has no interest in trading Noel. Obviously, there's motivation for them to trade one of the bigs. Nobody is disputing a lack of motivation. Ideally they would like to move Noel for equal value at a position of need. He's a starting center who might be one of the best defenders in the league. They unfortunately have even greater center prospects demanding more minutes. If they can get the equivalent of Noel's impact in at off-guard or small-forward, they'd likely be thrilled. I'm sure they are motivated to find those kind of offers if they are out there.
Yes, there is incentive for them to seek a trade.
Don't confuse that with incentive to pull the trigger on a trade. If the offer they get is garbage... perhaps an even worse Center... there's no incentive to do that. Do you understand that? If hypothetically the best offer they get is Bismack Biyombo and his fat contract... is there really any logic to Philly pulling the trigger on that? Swap out one offensively inept defensive center for a higher paid offensively inept defensive center? No point. Thus, no incentive to make a deal.
So far, while Philly has clearly had their ears open to trades and several teams including Boston has reportedly made offers... nothing has been enough. The fact he's still on Philly proves this.
And again, try to imagine a hypothetical where this summer we land the prize pick of the draft and select star PG prospect Markelle Fultz. Let's imagine Marcus Smart keeps struggling offensively this season and the best offer we get this Summer for Marcus is Josh McRoberts from Miami. Marcus might be very upset about the situation... going into the final year of his rookie year and looking at a minute decrease to 15-20 behind Fultz and Thomas. We'll have incentive to seek a trade... we'll likely be looking for bigs who can help us. But if Josh McRoberts is the only offer, will that really be enough incentive for us to pull the trigger? Would that really help us more than Smart getting limited minutes? How does 10-15 minutes of McRoberts make us better than 10-15 minutes of Smart?
That's the situation Philly might be in right now. Though I think with December 15 coming and Noel likely being showcased for a few games, and multiple teams reportedly interested in him... it's a pretty easy bet that they'll trade Noel for something before the deadline. He's found money anyways.