Time to Buy low on Greg Monroe?

[Moranis]

I would rather have the cap room next off-season than pay ~$18 million to a bench big.

Don't you think Monroe will opt out (or not exercise his player option, I forget if he has PO or an ETO) at the end of this year ?

Also with how the Clippers are playing I'm not sure we have a chance at Blake. Who would you like to keep the cap space for?

With how he's playing, why would he?  I doubt he'd get $18 million over two seasons, much less one.  There have been multiple reports that he's not expected to opt out, which is one reason the Bucks would like to trade him.

He may not if he stays on Milwaukee, but if he comes here and plays 30 mpg and gets back to close to where he was at statistically, then he would price himself even higher.

I don't know why you think Stevens would ever give him 30 minutes a game with his defensive rotations.  He's not a great fit for most teams.  I do think it'd be worth it for the Pelicans to take a shot, because what have they got to lose?

Monroe isn't very athletic and is not a shot blocker, but he isn't a terrible defender.  In fact, he has never had a negative DBPM.  He would be by far the best rebounder on the team and would be the only player with any sort of real lost post skills.  He is a respectable passer and a very good free throw shooter (for a big guy). 

If Boston can acquire Monroe cheaply, he makes perfect sense and I'd expect to play as many minutes as he is able since he would have no real competition for minutes at center.

Even the creator of BPM says "Defense is only partially captured by the box score, so elite defenders based on position and communication, like Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan, will not be properly represented."  Frankly, the same thing could be said for poor defenders.

I think it's moot, since Boston will not trade for Monroe.  Guaranteed.  But if he does, I'm offering the prediction right now that if he will not get 30 minutes a game unless there is a significant injury to Horford or Olynyk (not impossible), and regardless, he will opt in for next season.  Wherever he winds up, he's opting in.

Let's say Boston acquired Monroe for Johnson and Jerekbo (and picks) as is stated in the thread.  I would fully expect Monroe to start at center and play in the 30 minute range, with Horford getting the other 18 at center and 15 or so at PF, with Olynyk getting 26 at PF, and the few straggler PF minutes going to Crowder in a small ball lineup or some of Horford's center minutes if Zeller gets a few minutes at center.

Boston just doesn't have many credible big men.  A guy like Monroe would be able to play as many minutes as he could same with Horford, same with Olynyk.  And the thing about Monroe is he is actually a pretty good fit next to either Horford or Olynyk. 

[Moranis]

I'm not saying to give up a lot for Monroe. Something like Amir + Jonas/Young + 2 2nd round picks seems like a fair deal given the fact he is likely a 1 year rental. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Pelicans offer more then this. This type of 2 for 1 deal would also open the door to possibly signing a vet SF like Prince or Butler or signing Nader to add depth behind Crowder.

   

Giving up Amir Johnson means giving up the best player in the deal.  If you could use Zeller's contract instead, Monroe would be the fourth big.  I don't think he wants to be in that situation.

Monroe would be the starting center on Boston if he was added tomorrow even for a non-big man (i.e. all the big men are still here).  He would be by far the best big man on the team outside of Horford.  It isn't close.

[Evantime34]

For what it's worth a Bucks blog indicated that Monroe has looked better on defense at this early point in the season.

http://behindthebuckpass.com/2016/11/09/greg-monroe-become-defense-first-player/

[kozlodoev]

Monroe just got benched for a game because his team doesn't want to play him against post-up bigs. Sounds like exactly the type of player one would want on the roster, no?

Also, the Bucks have started John Henson over him all season, and John Henson is awful, so there's that...

[mef730]

So if he decides to renew at $18m, that essentially wipes out our ability to sign a max FA next year, right?

Mike

[saltlover]

So if he decides to renew at $18m, that essentially wipes out our ability to sign a max FA next year, right?

Mike

Precisely.

[Vermont Green]

It is hard to understand what is happening to Monroe.  I think he got a little over-rated; his best seasons were something in the range of 16 pts /10 rebs and always shooting at a high percentage.  That is productive.  I have not seen him actually play in a while (I trust my eyeballs much more than stats) but I remember him as a decent defender and team player.

It is hard to know what is going on but there is probably still an upper tier big in there somewhere.  If you add that to the Celtics and start him along side Horford, I believe we get quite a bit better than we are now (assuming the trade is Johnson/Jerebko or Johnson/Zeller plus a not so valuable future pick).

In terms of the fear of keeping cap space, that is kind of like drafting, you really never know what you are going to get.  Last year we got Horford, big whoop.  I would hate to think we didn't do a trade just to overpay the next Al Horford.  I would do a trade for Monroe under the following conditions:

• I get to see him play and get reassured that he is still  the same Greg Monroe, just in a funk of some sort
• That the trade is Amir and not all that much more

With those things, i do the deal and don't worry about the future FA we might get next off season.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

It is hard to understand what is happening to Monroe.  I think he got a little over-rated; his best seasons were something in the range of 16 pts /10 rebs and always shooting at a high percentage.  That is productive.  I have not seen him actually play in a while (I trust my eyeballs much more than stats) but I remember him as a decent defender and team player.

It is hard to know what is going on but there is probably still an upper tier big in there somewhere.  If you add that to the Celtics and start him along side Horford, I believe we get quite a bit better than we are now (assuming the trade is Johnson/Jerebko or Johnson/Zeller plus a not so valuable future pick).

In terms of the fear of keeping cap space, that is kind of like drafting, you really never know what you are going to get.  Last year we got Horford, big whoop.  I would hate to think we didn't do a trade just to overpay the next Al Horford.  I would do a trade for Monroe under the following conditions:

• I get to see him play and get reassured that he is still  the same Greg Monroe, just in a funk of some sort
• That the trade is Amir and not all that much more

With those things, i do the deal and don't worry about the future FA we might get next off season.

I would point out ... 16 and 10 on a losing team. That is significant. Although I still think he can contribute, I seriously question his ability to impact a playoff team as anything less than a 4th option.

[Moranis]

It is hard to understand what is happening to Monroe.  I think he got a little over-rated; his best seasons were something in the range of 16 pts /10 rebs and always shooting at a high percentage.  That is productive.  I have not seen him actually play in a while (I trust my eyeballs much more than stats) but I remember him as a decent defender and team player.

It is hard to know what is going on but there is probably still an upper tier big in there somewhere.  If you add that to the Celtics and start him along side Horford, I believe we get quite a bit better than we are now (assuming the trade is Johnson/Jerebko or Johnson/Zeller plus a not so valuable future pick).

In terms of the fear of keeping cap space, that is kind of like drafting, you really never know what you are going to get.  Last year we got Horford, big whoop.  I would hate to think we didn't do a trade just to overpay the next Al Horford.  I would do a trade for Monroe under the following conditions:

• I get to see him play and get reassured that he is still  the same Greg Monroe, just in a funk of some sort
• That the trade is Amir and not all that much more

With those things, i do the deal and don't worry about the future FA we might get next off season.

in his reduced minutes this year his per minute production is actually a career high for rebounds, assists, steals, and FT attempts, though his points are down as a result of him shooting a career low from the field. 

[Moranis]

It is hard to understand what is happening to Monroe.  I think he got a little over-rated; his best seasons were something in the range of 16 pts /10 rebs and always shooting at a high percentage.  That is productive.  I have not seen him actually play in a while (I trust my eyeballs much more than stats) but I remember him as a decent defender and team player.

It is hard to know what is going on but there is probably still an upper tier big in there somewhere.  If you add that to the Celtics and start him along side Horford, I believe we get quite a bit better than we are now (assuming the trade is Johnson/Jerebko or Johnson/Zeller plus a not so valuable future pick).

In terms of the fear of keeping cap space, that is kind of like drafting, you really never know what you are going to get.  Last year we got Horford, big whoop.  I would hate to think we didn't do a trade just to overpay the next Al Horford.  I would do a trade for Monroe under the following conditions:

• I get to see him play and get reassured that he is still  the same Greg Monroe, just in a funk of some sort
• That the trade is Amir and not all that much more

With those things, i do the deal and don't worry about the future FA we might get next off season.

I would point out ... 16 and 10 on a losing team. That is significant. Although I still think he can contribute, I seriously question his ability to impact a playoff team as anything less than a 4th option.

That isn't really significant at all.  Plenty of players play on losing teams, it doesn't make them losing players or players with inflated stats.  Sure some could be, but that also holds true for players on winning teams as well. 

[CFAN38]

It is hard to understand what is happening to Monroe.  I think he got a little over-rated; his best seasons were something in the range of 16 pts /10 rebs and always shooting at a high percentage.  That is productive.  I have not seen him actually play in a while (I trust my eyeballs much more than stats) but I remember him as a decent defender and team player.

It is hard to know what is going on but there is probably still an upper tier big in there somewhere.  If you add that to the Celtics and start him along side Horford, I believe we get quite a bit better than we are now (assuming the trade is Johnson/Jerebko or Johnson/Zeller plus a not so valuable future pick).

In terms of the fear of keeping cap space, that is kind of like drafting, you really never know what you are going to get.  Last year we got Horford, big whoop.  I would hate to think we didn't do a trade just to overpay the next Al Horford.  I would do a trade for Monroe under the following conditions:

• I get to see him play and get reassured that he is still  the same Greg Monroe, just in a funk of some sort
• That the trade is Amir and not all that much more

With those things, i do the deal and don't worry about the future FA we might get next off season.

I would point out ... 16 and 10 on a losing team. That is significant. Although I still think he can contribute, I seriously question his ability to impact a playoff team as anything less than a 4th option.

Stats on a losing team can be a factor however I feel "empty stats" are more of a phenomenon with wings and guards. As for questioning his ability to be any better then a 4th option on a good team I would point out that he would be exactly that with the Cs. #1 IT, #2 AB, #3 AL, #4 Monroe/Crowder. 

[Evantime34]

It is hard to understand what is happening to Monroe.  I think he got a little over-rated; his best seasons were something in the range of 16 pts /10 rebs and always shooting at a high percentage.  That is productive.  I have not seen him actually play in a while (I trust my eyeballs much more than stats) but I remember him as a decent defender and team player.

It is hard to know what is going on but there is probably still an upper tier big in there somewhere.  If you add that to the Celtics and start him along side Horford, I believe we get quite a bit better than we are now (assuming the trade is Johnson/Jerebko or Johnson/Zeller plus a not so valuable future pick).

In terms of the fear of keeping cap space, that is kind of like drafting, you really never know what you are going to get.  Last year we got Horford, big whoop.  I would hate to think we didn't do a trade just to overpay the next Al Horford.  I would do a trade for Monroe under the following conditions:

• I get to see him play and get reassured that he is still  the same Greg Monroe, just in a funk of some sort
• That the trade is Amir and not all that much more

With those things, i do the deal and don't worry about the future FA we might get next off season.

I would point out ... 16 and 10 on a losing team. That is significant. Although I still think he can contribute, I seriously question his ability to impact a playoff team as anything less than a 4th option.

Stats on a losing team can be a factor however I feel "empty stats" are more of a phenomenon with wings and guards. As for questioning his ability to be any better then a 4th option on a good team I would point out that he would be exactly that with the Cs. #1 IT, #2 AB, #3 AL, #4 Monroe/Crowder.

If we dealt for him, I wouldn't even care about his scoring. The rebounding he could give us is why I would trade for him.

[jbpats]

I would trade for Monroe as a last resort. I think he is underutilized in Milwaukee and do believe Stevens can get him back to, or at least close to his Detroit form.
That being said I think there are better moves we can make at center for less (or for not much more). I’d take a shot at Okafor or Noel before Monroe, and I would definitely roll the dice on Boogie if he was available.

[nickagneta]

After working so diligently to secure cap space freedom for last year and the foreseeable future, I am saying that I 100% am convinced Danny Ainge won't put that cap space in jeopardy unless its to sign or trade for a possible top 10 or so players in the league. Trading for Monroe would do that and Monroe is probably not even a top 60 player in the league. Monroe is not coming to Boston.

[Moranis]

I would trade for Monroe as a last resort. I think he is underutilized in Milwaukee and do believe Stevens can get him back to, or at least close to his Detroit form.
That being said I think there are better moves we can make at center for less (or for not much more). I’d take a shot at Okafor or Noel before Monroe, and I would definitely roll the dice on Boogie if he was available.

As I said earlier in the thread, this year his per minute production actually exceeds his time in Detroit.  He just isn't playing as many minutes.