Rumor: Raptors interested in Noel

[celticsclay]

exactly, which is why I don't buy this trade for the Raptors.  Nerlens and Jonas are not a good fit.  I just can't see Toronto giving up real assets for a back-up center that is going to want a huge contract this summer.

Is a backup point guard in his 6th season s the 26th pick or so "real assets"?

Hard to say, but Joseph is signed past this year and is a key member of their rotation as he was last year.  You take Joseph off the team and the backup PG is 2nd year man Delon Wright who has yet to play for the Raptors this year.  As for the picks, the Raptors took Pascal Siakam with the 27th pick in the last draft.  Siakam has started all 7 games this year. 

Is it worth acquiring a backup center, who you hope only plays 17 or so minutes a game, for a critical member of your bench/rotation and a 1st round pick and when said backup center is going to want and will get a contract north of 15 million a year the next summer. 

If Noel fit better with Valanciunas then it is a no brainer for Toronto, but I can't really see those two playing well together, so I don't really see the point.

I know you know what the value of a 27th pick is. Mentioning one guy that is starting some games because of a Sullinger injury doesn't change years of data on what very end of first rounders are worth. You can hit a gem on occasion, but odds are it is scrub.

Pascal Siakam, Larry Nance, Jr., Bogdan Bogdanovic, Rudy Gobert, Arnett Moultrie, JaJuan Johnson, Jordan Crawford, DeMarre Carroll, Darrell Arthur, Aaron Afflalo, Sergio Rodriguez

That is your last 11 27 picks.  Some pretty solid talent and really only Moultrie and Johnson were busts with Bodganovic yet to come over. 

Late 1st round picks are definitely a crap shoot, but they absolutely have value, especially when you couple that pick with your only credible back-up PG when acquiring a back-up center that doesn't fit well with your starting center and who will be a free agent this summer looking for a massive contract.  Obviously if Toronto believes Nerlens and Jonas can play together, they probably make the trade, but Biyombo and Jonas couldn't play well together last year, and Noel is a pretty similar player to Biyombo so I think Toronto will reach the same conclusion and not acquire Noel for a vital part of their rotation, especially when including a 1st round pick.  It also isn't like Toronto is bereft of big men.  They have Jonas, Poeltl, Noguiera as centers with Patterson, Siakam, and of course Sullinger locked in at PF.  They don't need to add a 4th center, especially one that can't play with their starting center.

I don't buy these trade rumors at all.  Now if it was something like Siakam and 1st for Noel, that one I might buy, just not Joseph.  It just doesn't make sense.

Sigh. Moranis you really just constantly argue for the sake of arguing and waste everyone's time.

Here are the 28th picks for the last 10 drafts:

RH Hunter, CJ Wilcox, Perry Jones, Norris Cole, Greivis Vasquez, Wayne Ellington, Donte Greene, Tiago Splitter, Maurice Ager, Ian Mahinmi

Splitter may have started a few games, but generally there are 3 guys (mahinmi, cole and splitter that have lasted in the league and made a backup level impact)

Here are the 25th pick from the last 10

Jarrel Martin, Clint Capela, Livio Jean-Charles, Tony Wroten, Marshon Brooks, Dominique Jones, Rodrigue Beaubois, Nicolas Batum, Morris Almond, Shannon Brown

Clinton Capela looks like a potential long term starter, Batum is an above average starter and Brown had a season or two as a decent reserve. The rest were more or less complete washouts after a season.

The 26th pick actually had some nice players (Taj Gibson, Aaron Brooks, George Hill), while the 29th had only Corey Joseph and a bunch of scrubs.

The point is, and I know you know this well, that on the balance very end of first round picks (like Toronto will have) end up either complete washouts, occasionally backups, and everyone once in a while there are a few gems mixed in. I know you know this because you were certainly not over the moon acting like we were going to land a star when we had the 28th pick to select RJ Hunter.

Finding out there were some flukey good players that happened to be pick in the 27th slot doesn't disprove this. Heck many late first round picks have been bought over the years (although this has decreased recently). Again, a backup point guard ( 19mpg 5.7 points and 42% shooting no less) that is what he is in his 6th year and an end of 1st round pick is not big time assets. It is not a lot to give up if they believe Noel is a big upgrade and would give them a chance of beating Cleveland in a series.

[Moranis]

exactly, which is why I don't buy this trade for the Raptors.  Nerlens and Jonas are not a good fit.  I just can't see Toronto giving up real assets for a back-up center that is going to want a huge contract this summer.

Is a backup point guard in his 6th season s the 26th pick or so "real assets"?

Hard to say, but Joseph is signed past this year and is a key member of their rotation as he was last year.  You take Joseph off the team and the backup PG is 2nd year man Delon Wright who has yet to play for the Raptors this year.  As for the picks, the Raptors took Pascal Siakam with the 27th pick in the last draft.  Siakam has started all 7 games this year. 

Is it worth acquiring a backup center, who you hope only plays 17 or so minutes a game, for a critical member of your bench/rotation and a 1st round pick and when said backup center is going to want and will get a contract north of 15 million a year the next summer. 

If Noel fit better with Valanciunas then it is a no brainer for Toronto, but I can't really see those two playing well together, so I don't really see the point.

I know you know what the value of a 27th pick is. Mentioning one guy that is starting some games because of a Sullinger injury doesn't change years of data on what very end of first rounders are worth. You can hit a gem on occasion, but odds are it is scrub.

Pascal Siakam, Larry Nance, Jr., Bogdan Bogdanovic, Rudy Gobert, Arnett Moultrie, JaJuan Johnson, Jordan Crawford, DeMarre Carroll, Darrell Arthur, Aaron Afflalo, Sergio Rodriguez

That is your last 11 27 picks.  Some pretty solid talent and really only Moultrie and Johnson were busts with Bodganovic yet to come over. 

Late 1st round picks are definitely a crap shoot, but they absolutely have value, especially when you couple that pick with your only credible back-up PG when acquiring a back-up center that doesn't fit well with your starting center and who will be a free agent this summer looking for a massive contract.  Obviously if Toronto believes Nerlens and Jonas can play together, they probably make the trade, but Biyombo and Jonas couldn't play well together last year, and Noel is a pretty similar player to Biyombo so I think Toronto will reach the same conclusion and not acquire Noel for a vital part of their rotation, especially when including a 1st round pick.  It also isn't like Toronto is bereft of big men.  They have Jonas, Poeltl, Noguiera as centers with Patterson, Siakam, and of course Sullinger locked in at PF.  They don't need to add a 4th center, especially one that can't play with their starting center.

I don't buy these trade rumors at all.  Now if it was something like Siakam and 1st for Noel, that one I might buy, just not Joseph.  It just doesn't make sense.

Sigh. Moranis you really just constantly argue for the sake of arguing and waste everyone's time.

Here are the 28th picks for the last 10 drafts:

RH Hunter, CJ Wilcox, Perry Jones, Norris Cole, Greivis Vasquez, Wayne Ellington, Donte Greene, Tiago Splitter, Maurice Ager, Ian Mahinmi

Splitter may have started a few games, but generally there are 3 guys (mahinmi, cole and splitter that have lasted in the league and made a backup level impact)

Here are the 25th pick from the last 10

Jarrel Martin, Clint Capela, Livio Jean-Charles, Tony Wroten, Marshon Brooks, Dominique Jones, Rodrigue Beaubois, Nicolas Batum, Morris Almond, Shannon Brown

Clinton Capela looks like a potential long term starter, Batum is an above average starter and Brown had a season or two as a decent reserve. The rest were more or less complete washouts after a season.

The 26th pick actually had some nice players (Taj Gibson, Aaron Brooks, George Hill), while the 29th had only Corey Joseph and a bunch of scrubs.

The point is, and I know you know this well, that on the balance very end of first round picks (like Toronto will have) end up either complete washouts, occasionally backups, and everyone once in a while there are a few gems mixed in. I know you know this because you were certainly not over the moon acting like we were going to land a star when we had the 28th pick to select RJ Hunter.

Finding out there were some flukey good players that happened to be pick in the 27th slot doesn't disprove this. Heck many late first round picks have been bought over the years (although this has decreased recently). Again, a backup point guard ( 19mpg 5.7 points and 42% shooting no less) that is what he is in his 6th year and an end of 1st round pick is not big time assets. It is not a lot to give up if they believe Noel is a big upgrade and would give them a chance of beating Cleveland in a series.

The draft pick wasn't the focus of my comments at all, just pointing out that late 1sts aren't no value.  My point is Nerlens can't play with Jonas, so Nerlens would be nothing more than a back-up center.  Is it worth losing your only credible back-up PG for a back-up center, when you have three centers on the roster, along with three power forwards, and when your back-up PG is signed for multiple years at reasonable money and the back-up center is going to require a massive contract this summer.  I just don't buy that trade or the one with Ross for many of the same reasons.  Nerlens just isn't a good fit with Jonas, so giving up anything more than a late 1st and someone like Siakam just doesn't make sense for the Raptors.  Even when you believe, as I do, that Noel is a better player than Joseph and Ross.  He just isn't a better fit.

Now on a team like the Celtics, Noel is a great fit and fills a real need.  Boston should absolutely be trying to acquire him for any of the non A level assets (i.e. no Brooklyn pick or Brown).