Doesn't fit our style of play at all, potentially ruins our cap space in summer. Also the rebounding thing is not such a big deal. The way we play means the guards get more involved in the rebounds while the big men box out. It isn't a reflection on the individual, it's a team effort
It's a huge deal. If we were capable of rebounding the ball better; I'm sure that we would win games more comfortably than we are seeing right now. Those second chance baskets are killing us, which we e.g. saw against Chicago.
But I agree, Monroe doesn't fit our playing style. We must hope that Olynyk manages to solve some of our problems in the rebounding department.
In the post-game press conference, Brad said that strong rebounding by our guards is "the way we have to play" as a result of our personnel. So the answer is yes, we need better front-court rebounding. However, Greg Monroe is not the guy, unless he can develop a 3-point shot.
big guys don't need a 3 point shot. Somewhere on here I posted the top 15 qualified players for rebounding from last year. Only like 3 had more than 1 3 point shot a game. This notion that all big men must shoot is just nonsense that isn't borne in reality.
It is the trend in the "pace-and-space" NBA, and also happens to be what Brad would like for his system. We already have Olynyk and Horford as big men who can shoot the 3. Porzingis obviously shoot the 3, but even Boogie is starting to take three's. It started with the stretch-4, and now stretch-5 will become more common too.
It's a perceived trend, not an actual one. The top 10 qualified rebounders last year were in order: Drummond, Jordan, Whiteside, Howard, Cousins, P. Gasol, Gobert, Towns, Davis, Randle. Only Towns and Cousins shot at least 1 3 pointer and only Howard and Gasol are past their prime. The next 5 were Love, Gortat, Green, Pachulia, Valanciunas. Green and Love the only "shooters". The next 5 were T. Young, Millsap, T. Thompson, Vucevic, Monroe. Only Millsap was a shooter (though Young has shot more in the past, he didn't last year). Next 5 must have a bunch of shooters: Chandler, Faried, Aldridge, Sullinger, Durant. So you get your 1st non-big in Durant and Aldridge and Sully, but not Chandler and Faired. The next 5 and rounding out the top 30 were: Favors, Kanter, Noel, Biyombo, Lopez (who was tied with Westbrook and Randolph). So of the big men not a single shooter in the group. So of the top 30 big men rebounders last year (i.e. no Durant or Westbrook) only 7 shot at least 1 three pointer a game last year. There is no new trend where big men are shooters. Some guys have that range, but some big men have always had more range and better touch than other big men. This is nothing new.
I don't necessarily disagree with you, but basing whether or not stretch bigs are becoming the norm on the top rebounders doesn't make any sense. Obviously most of the top rebounders aren't going to be good shooters - being a good shooter is generally going to lead to fewer rebounds, but that doesn't necessarily make you a worse big. If you sort by BPM (a better representation of their overall impact) instead of rebounds, the top 10 last year were:
1. Draymond Green (stretch big)
2. Paul Millsap (stretch big)
3. Nikola Jokic (stretch big by 1 3pa/game criteria)
4. Andrew Bogut (not a stretch big)
5. Tim Duncan (not a stretch big)
6. Al Horford (stretch big)
7. Pau Gasol (barely misses 1 3pa/game criteria)
8. Rudy Gobert (not a stretch big)
9. Deandre Jordan (not a stretch big)
10. David West (not a stretch big)
This paints a much different picture of stretch bigs on the NBA. Instead of 7/30, you're looking at 4/10, or 5/10 if you consider Pau Gasol to be a stretch big.
Picking rebounds makes it a bit disingenuous - you may as well say that point guards aren't a threat from behind the 3 point arc because only 9 of the top 20 in assists are above league average in 3 point percentage. You might be right, but the bias in your sample makes it impossible to tell.
The best way to tell would be to look at the percentage of minutes at center played by stretch bigs and compare it to years past, but I don;t know how to find that data
But we are talking about big guys, so rebounds is a fair stat to use especially since most rebounds are from defense (thus it makes little difference where you are offensively). Curry and Bayless were the only two PG's in the top 9 with Calderon tying for 10th. However, 11 of the top 30 were PG's, which actually makes PG the most well represented in the top 30. Olynyk was actually the best non-guard/wing last year coming in at 16th. The big guys that were in the top 30 were KO, Scola, Marvin Wiliams, and Teletovic. All basically glorified role players except Williams (and it isn't like he was a key guy in Charlotte).
This notion that all big men must be shooters, because that is the trend, is just nonsense not borne in reality of the game. Obviously it doesn't hurt that a guy like Cousins can stretch the floor, but by doing so you also move him out of the paint where he has a real advantage over just about everyone.
Rebounds per game doesn't tell you how good a big man is, though. It tells you who the best rebounders are, but not how good or beneficial the players are. All you discovered is that the best rebounders in the league are generally not 3 point shooters. That's a good thing to know, but it doesn't tell you anything about how stretch bigs effect the game or whether a three-point shot benefits a big - it only tells you that, on average, it will lead to fewer rebounds. Again, that's a nice tidbit and something to consider, but it doesn't prove your point that stretch bigs aren't becoming the norm or that not all big men need to be shooters (and I agree, but that doesn't change the fact that your data to back it up is fatally flawed)
Using a stat (like rebounds) which is generally biased against outside shooting bigs doesn't prove your point, just as my example above doesn't prove that point guards are bad shooters: obviously, point guards are some of the best three-point shooting players out there, but by sorting by assists (a stat that is generally biased against shooters, since the guys that really rack up assists like Rubio or Rondo are generally poor 3 point shooters [although Rondo was actually above average from 3 last year]), you would get the idea that point guards aren't actually that good at three point shooting
You can keep sorting by rebounds if you want, but just realize that you're not going to convince anyone, and that everybody on the other side of the discussion is going to dismiss your evidence because "Bigs that rebound better shoot fewer threes" and "Stretch bigs aren't becoming the norm" are totally different things and need different data to support them.
Sorting by minutes played at PF/C and three points attempted, then comparing to past years (or the % of minutes played by streth bigs i mentioned before) might help support the point you want to make, but 3pa vs. rebounds doesn't
Only 4 centers qualified for 3 point shots last year. Olynyk, Horford, Kaminsky, and Cousins (two role players and two key members of their team). 20 PF's qualified. Of those in the top ten only Green and Nowitzki (and arguably Williams I mentioned above) were key members of their team. The second ten though had quite a few (Anderson, Bosh, Morris, Peterson, Love, Porzingis, Ibaka, Millsap). Going back to the 1999-2000 season 17 PF's qualified and 2 centers qualified, so yeah a few less back then, but not so much that there is this dramatic trend. Even this year thus far there are 18 PF's and 6 C's that qualify. So this year basically 1 out of every 2 teams has a PF shooting a bunch of threes and 1 out of every 5 teams has a center shooting a bunch of threes. Not exactly a widespread trend.
Now maybe you don't want to look at qualified shooters, so let's look at scoring from last year. Of the top 10 centers that qualified for scoring, only Cousins and Horford were outside shooters. The second 10 adds Sullinger, Olynyk, and Jokic. So just 5 of the top 20 qualified centers by scoring were "shooters' (and I put that in quotes because Jokic didn't shoot enough to even qualify). PF's had a lot more shooters with Towns, Nowitzki, Aldridge, Millsap, Anderson, and Love all in the top 10 and a similar representation in the second 10, but guys called centers, not so much.
It doesn't matter how you look at the numbers, there isn't this huge dramatic trend of big guys all needing to shoot, so when people say we don't want him because he can't shoot from three, I feel it is absolutely necessary to point these numbers out.
Topic: Greg Monroe is a guy we really should be looking at right now... (Read 10274 times)