So do we let IT and Avery walk as free agents after next season?

[The One]

I would not be shocked if Rozier can overtake Thomas by the end of next year.

Indisputable pros for Terry:
He's bigger
He's better defender
He's better rebounder
He'll be cheaper

Up in the air:
Can he shoot?  Nice sample so far...but can he prove it long-term?
Can he run the offense?  Right now...he seems more comfortable off-the-ball.


So in my ideal world...Rozier overtakes IT and the Celtics just move on.

[CelticGuardian]

Why are we acting like IT does not see all the superstar talk and is not going to use it as motivation, especially after being the unquestioned Alpha on this team?

Rozier and Smart are still prospects, they will have to breakout in the regular season for Ainge to even be tempted splitting up a more than solid backcourt duo of Bradley and IT4.

[Evantime34]

paying the luxury tax and paying the highest tax bill in NBA history are two entirely different things. 

If Boston signs a true max contract player next summer, I can't see anyway it keeps all of Bradley, Thomas, Crowder, Smart, and Olynyk. 

I mean you are looking at in 2018

Horford 29 million
Other Max FA 28 million
Crowder 7.3 million
Brown 5.1 million
BKN 17 5 million (based on current scale not new CBA)
BKN 18 4 million (based on current scale not new CBA)
Rozier 3 million
Zizic, Yab, BOS 18 4 million (based on current scale not new CBA)

That is 85.4 million from 10 players and doesn't even account for the increase in rookie salaries expected with the new CBA.  If you keep the 4 guys above (that aren't under contract for 18) you would probably be looking at something like

Thomas 22 million
Bradley 18 million
Olynyk 16 million (2nd year of his extension)
Smart 12 million

I think those are reasonable enough salaries barring injury or drastic changes in play for another 68 million.  Add that to the 85.4 million and you are looking at a payroll of 153.4 million dollars with one open roster spot (for Mickey or Jackson or someone else). 

There is no way Boston is holding a 150 million plus payroll.  None at all.  That is just too high even for a legit contender.  That is why I think Boston will look to move players and assets either at the deadline or this summer for a player.  They have to consolidate and upgrade the starting lineup and just adding a max contract player in free agency doesn't alleviate these other issues.  So like if Hayward signs, I would absolutely expect Bradley and/or Smart to get moved.  If Boston adds a PF/C, I would expect Olynyk to be let go, etc.

This is a good post. I think the C's will let Olynyk walk as a free agent this summer if they can sign a max guy. I could also see them trading Bradley or Smart this offseason. I do not see any way we let Smart or Bradley leave for nothing as free agents.

[Moranis]

paying the luxury tax and paying the highest tax bill in NBA history are two entirely different things. 

If Boston signs a true max contract player next summer, I can't see anyway it keeps all of Bradley, Thomas, Crowder, Smart, and Olynyk. 

I mean you are looking at in 2018

Horford 29 million
Other Max FA 28 million
Crowder 7.3 million
Brown 5.1 million
BKN 17 5 million (based on current scale not new CBA)
BKN 18 4 million (based on current scale not new CBA)
Rozier 3 million
Zizic, Yab, BOS 18 4 million (based on current scale not new CBA)

That is 85.4 million from 10 players and doesn't even account for the increase in rookie salaries expected with the new CBA.  If you keep the 4 guys above (that aren't under contract for 18) you would probably be looking at something like

Thomas 22 million
Bradley 18 million
Olynyk 16 million (2nd year of his extension)
Smart 12 million

I think those are reasonable enough salaries barring injury or drastic changes in play for another 68 million.  Add that to the 85.4 million and you are looking at a payroll of 153.4 million dollars with one open roster spot (for Mickey or Jackson or someone else). 

There is no way Boston is holding a 150 million plus payroll.  None at all.  That is just too high even for a legit contender.  That is why I think Boston will look to move players and assets either at the deadline or this summer for a player.  They have to consolidate and upgrade the starting lineup and just adding a max contract player in free agency doesn't alleviate these other issues.  So like if Hayward signs, I would absolutely expect Bradley and/or Smart to get moved.  If Boston adds a PF/C, I would expect Olynyk to be let go, etc.

This is a good post. I think the C's will let Olynyk walk as a free agent this summer if they can sign a max guy. I could also see them trading Bradley or Smart this offseason. I do not see any way we let Smart or Bradley leave for nothing as free agents.

Yeah that is my point.  If Boston signs Blake Griffin, for example, I see no way KO is kept.  If Boston signs Hayward, I would expect Bradley to get moved in a trade for big man depth (or maybe in a sign and trade for Hayward if it allows Boston to keep KO or Amir who might otherwise have to be let go to make room to sign Hayward).  I also think there is a very good chance that if Boston doesn't sign a max free agent that it trades for one using its assets (it might do this anyway).  Boston just has too many mid-tier players that in the new NBA are going to sign for more dollars than Boston should pay.  It needs to start upgrading and consolidating.  It can't (or won't) keep everyone.

[Evantime34]

paying the luxury tax and paying the highest tax bill in NBA history are two entirely different things. 

If Boston signs a true max contract player next summer, I can't see anyway it keeps all of Bradley, Thomas, Crowder, Smart, and Olynyk. 

I mean you are looking at in 2018

Horford 29 million
Other Max FA 28 million
Crowder 7.3 million
Brown 5.1 million
BKN 17 5 million (based on current scale not new CBA)
BKN 18 4 million (based on current scale not new CBA)
Rozier 3 million
Zizic, Yab, BOS 18 4 million (based on current scale not new CBA)

That is 85.4 million from 10 players and doesn't even account for the increase in rookie salaries expected with the new CBA.  If you keep the 4 guys above (that aren't under contract for 18) you would probably be looking at something like

Thomas 22 million
Bradley 18 million
Olynyk 16 million (2nd year of his extension)
Smart 12 million

I think those are reasonable enough salaries barring injury or drastic changes in play for another 68 million.  Add that to the 85.4 million and you are looking at a payroll of 153.4 million dollars with one open roster spot (for Mickey or Jackson or someone else). 

There is no way Boston is holding a 150 million plus payroll.  None at all.  That is just too high even for a legit contender.  That is why I think Boston will look to move players and assets either at the deadline or this summer for a player.  They have to consolidate and upgrade the starting lineup and just adding a max contract player in free agency doesn't alleviate these other issues.  So like if Hayward signs, I would absolutely expect Bradley and/or Smart to get moved.  If Boston adds a PF/C, I would expect Olynyk to be let go, etc.

This is a good post. I think the C's will let Olynyk walk as a free agent this summer if they can sign a max guy. I could also see them trading Bradley or Smart this offseason. I do not see any way we let Smart or Bradley leave for nothing as free agents.

Yeah that is my point.  If Boston signs Blake Griffin, for example, I see no way KO is kept.  If Boston signs Hayward, I would expect Bradley to get moved in a trade for big man depth (or maybe in a sign and trade for Hayward if it allows Boston to keep KO or Amir who might otherwise have to be let go to make room to sign Hayward).  I also think there is a very good chance that if Boston doesn't sign a max free agent that it trades for one using its assets (it might do this anyway).  Boston just has too many mid-tier players that in the new NBA are going to sign for more dollars than Boston should pay.  It needs to start upgrading and consolidating.  It can't (or won't) keep everyone.

I'm a big Hayward fan. I'd love to sign him in the offseason, then move some combination of Bradley, Crowder, It and/or the 2018 Brooklyn pick to trade for Boogie. I see Hayward as a player that would make it palatable for us to move Bradley or Crowder.

I'd probably prefer signing Blake, drafting a stud in the draft and going over the tax to resign everyone, but this seems less realistic to me.

[mmmmm]

I'm a big Hayward fan. I'd love to sign him in the offseason, then move some combination of Bradley, Crowder, It and/or the 2018 Brooklyn pick to trade for Boogie. I see Hayward as a player that would make it palatable for us to move Bradley or Crowder.

I'd probably prefer signing Blake, drafting a stud in the draft and going over the tax to resign everyone, but this seems less realistic to me.

I'm not going to say which option is better, but I don't understand why you think the former is more 'realistic' than the latter.

The former requires Danny to convince two external parties to deal with him:  Hayward (to sign a FA contract) and then Vlade Divac (to trade Cousins).  The latter in particular is going to be a tough sell.

The latter requires Danny to convince just Blake (to sign a FA contract).

Usually, the plan that has fewer external dependencies (decisions made by others) is considered more 'realistic'.

[mctyson]

What do we do?

Obviously it depends on a number of factors:  how this team competes over the next 2 seasons, each player's health, what the market looks like for them (and for replacements), how Smart and Rozier (and I guess Jackson) develops, etc...

If they are healthy I want both of them back.  I see both players performing at an elite level into their 30s.

[guava_wrench]

I would not be shocked if Rozier can overtake Thomas by the end of next year.

Indisputable pros for Terry:
He's bigger
He's better defender
He's better rebounder
He'll be cheaper

Up in the air:
Can he shoot?  Nice sample so far...but can he prove it long-term?
Can he run the offense?  Right now...he seems more comfortable off-the-ball.


So in my ideal world...Rozier overtakes IT and the Celtics just move on.

Terry isn't actually that big. Sure, bigger than IT, but everyone is. In fact, there are probably a lot of guys in the d-league who can be described in relation to IT as follows:

He's bigger
He's better defender
He's better rebounder
He'll be cheaper

[walker834]

No   I  can almost guarantee this will not happen with 98.9 percent certainty.   Maybe if there is some max player and it's the best course of action but again this won't happen.

[PhoSita]

I suspect we'll keep IT but trade Bradley before the 2018 off-season.

[chambers]

paying the luxury tax and paying the highest tax bill in NBA history are two entirely different things. 

If Boston signs a true max contract player next summer, I can't see anyway it keeps all of Bradley, Thomas, Crowder, Smart, and Olynyk. 

I mean you are looking at in 2018

Horford 29 million
Other Max FA 28 million
Crowder 7.3 million
Brown 5.1 million
BKN 17 5 million (based on current scale not new CBA)
BKN 18 4 million (based on current scale not new CBA)
Rozier 3 million
Zizic, Yab, BOS 18 4 million (based on current scale not new CBA)

That is 85.4 million from 10 players and doesn't even account for the increase in rookie salaries expected with the new CBA.  If you keep the 4 guys above (that aren't under contract for 18) you would probably be looking at something like

Thomas 22 million
Bradley 18 million
Olynyk 16 million (2nd year of his extension)
Smart 12 million

I think those are reasonable enough salaries barring injury or drastic changes in play for another 68 million.  Add that to the 85.4 million and you are looking at a payroll of 153.4 million dollars with one open roster spot (for Mickey or Jackson or someone else). 

There is no way Boston is holding a 150 million plus payroll.  None at all.  That is just too high even for a legit contender.  That is why I think Boston will look to move players and assets either at the deadline or this summer for a player.  They have to consolidate and upgrade the starting lineup and just adding a max contract player in free agency doesn't alleviate these other issues.  So like if Hayward signs, I would absolutely expect Bradley and/or Smart to get moved.  If Boston adds a PF/C, I would expect Olynyk to be let go, etc.

Excellent post, TP.

[SHAQATTACK]

Trade Bradley ...we need an upgrade.

[Phantom255x]

IT is NOT leaving. Sorry but can someone name me another legitimate scorer on this team right now? Maybe Horford, possibly Bradley, but both average less than 19 PPG. IT can average 21+ a game, and even when he struggles he has a knack for getting to the line and scoring from there.

Unless they can miraculously nab a Westbrook or Lilliard kind of guard.. IT will get extended. I think it comes down to Smart/Bradley, choose one, let one leave.

OR don't sign a max free agent next two seasons and keep all 3 (unlikely though)

[SHAQATTACK]

Oops

[wayupnorth]

Trade Bradley ...we need an upgrade.

Seriously?

Man is Bradley underrated around here.

Lame.