Poll: Are People Sleeping on the Celtics?

[Moranis]

It appears Koz and I are thinking alike on this one.  Horford is a better player than Sullinger and it isn't close, I'm just not sure how much that upgrade will actually effect the W/L column for many of Koz's reasons.  Similarly, Boston did not replace Turner, who while a flawed player, actually pretty effectively ran the second unit. 

There is real evidence that Boston was one of the worst offensive teams in the league without Thomas or Turner on the floor, and that essentially those same units when one of those guys were in the game were significantly better and more efficient players. 

[jpotter33]

I disagree with your undervaluing the difference in game changing skills from Sully to Horford. You haven't proven it or even tried. Horford is an all-star and was the second biggest free agent. Only Toronto seems to have wanted Sullinger and for a small price compared to Horford. I do not understand your point. Sully was terrible or serviceable at best not too much better than a Tyler Zeller. I'd rather have Sully than David Lee, but that's not saying much. You seem to be underrating Horford.

The highlighted part isn't "skills", it's reputation. The point I am trying to make is that precisely in terms of skills and production, the actual marginal upgrade over Sullinger[/i] here is not as big as it looks when you just say "oh, we added this allstar to the roster".

Horford is a skilled all-around player and a great guy to have on your team, but he's not a go-to scorer, and not a great rebounder. He's more efficient than Sullinger offensively, and will likely soak up more minutes. The last aspect is not negligible, because it means that while Sullinger was in the rotation, there were 10 extra minutes going to the likes of Tyler Zeller and Jonas Jerebko.

Also, I'm sorry, if you seriously claim that Sullinger was "not much better than Tyler Zeller", I will have to respectfully question your judgement and understanding of the game of basketball.

The Turner loss is addition by subtraction. He is a ball hog (although he seemed to do less of that) who would have cut into Brown, Rozier and Smart minutes. Evan isn't better than Jae Crowder and isn't known for being a good small forward. He is a point-forward?

Turner was about the only player on the second unit that seemed to be able to handle the ball without dribbling it off his food or passing to the third row. He wasn't a ball hog, he was asked to handle the ball and run the team a lot because Marcus Smart was an unmitigated disaster and no-one on the second unit had any offensive capability other than hitting an open jumper.

There is still no guarantee that the team has adequately replaced this aspect of his game. Right now, we figure to be leaning heavily on a second-year player whose only credentials so far include tearing up the preseason and summer league.

Marginal upgrade over Sullinger? Really? There's a reason one is a four-time All-Star and the other didn't even get a second contract from his drafted team, and it's not just based on reputation. Both offensively and, especially, defensively, Horford is a major upgrade over Sully, and it's not even particularly close. The only thing Sully might be better than Horford at is rebounding, but the preseason actually calls that into question, too. That seems like a major undercutting of Horford's true value and skill.

[Big333223]

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/17870963/2016-17-predictions-atlantic-champs

ESPN's "experts" picked Boston 22 to 6 to win the Atlantic (the other 6 votes for Toronto). So I think they're being rated about right. Whichever team wins the Atlantic will almost certainly be 2nd in the East. I know others have said they heard people picking Indiana but let's be real.

[CelticPride2016]

The highlighted part isn't "skills", it's reputation. The point I am trying to make is that precisely in terms of skills and production, the actual marginal upgrade over Sullinger here is not as big as it looks when you just say "oh, we added this allstar to the roster".

Horford is a skilled all-around player and a great guy to have on your team, but he's not a go-to scorer, and not a great rebounder. He's more efficient than Sullinger offensively, and will likely soak up more minutes. The last aspect is not negligible, because it means that while Sullinger was in the rotation, there were 10 extra minutes going to the likes of Tyler Zeller and Jonas Jerebko.

Also, I'm sorry, if you seriously claim that Sullinger was "not much better than Tyler Zeller", I will have to respectfully question your judgement and understanding of the game of basketball.

Maybe both of us are basketball morons. I don't see too much separation in impact between Sully and Zeller and you don't see much between Horford and Sully. We both probably look pretty bad here.

Turner was about the only player on the second unit that seemed to be able to handle the ball without dribbling it off his food or passing to the third row. He wasn't a ball hog, he was asked to handle the ball and run the team a lot because Marcus Smart was an unmitigated disaster and no-one on the second unit had any offensive capability other than hitting an open jumper.

There is still no guarantee that the team has adequately replaced this aspect of his game. Right now, we figure to be leaning heavily on a second-year player whose only credentials so far include tearing up the preseason and summer league.

Turner turned it on in the second half and just kept getting better. It's funny, though, how all these other guys are unproven just because they had a decent year. You mentioned the word fluke. Meanwhile, Evan Turner has apparently become a top 100 player in your eyes and indispensable.

Turner was not worth the money. He turned out not indispensable because Rozier, Smart and Bradley are stepping it up for ball movement. Brown can back up Jae at SF. If the three guards are as good as they looked in preseason, it will become Evan Who.

Same with Sully. The only thing we lose from him is twenty minutes of superior rebounding and the luxury of a big butt to push giant centers out of the paint.

[CelticPride2016]

Marginal upgrade over Sullinger? Really? There's a reason one is a four-time All-Star and the other didn't even get a second contract from his drafted team, and it's not just based on reputation. Both offensively and, especially, defensively, Horford is a major upgrade over Sully, and it's not even particularly close. The only thing Sully might be better than Horford at is rebounding, but the preseason actually calls that into question, too. That seems like a major undercutting of Horford's true value and skill.

Thanks. I don't like to explain obvious truths. Horford is a major upgrade over Sullinger. That's why we are in the 60 win discussion. Some people are always glass half empty and leaking. We could start the season 18-2 and there will still be bloggers saying it's only been 20 games and could be a fluke. It's such a small sample size. It's almost predictable, especially the knee-jerks off of specific games. You know what people will say the next day.

[crimson_stallion]

We have Marcus Smart - an outstanding defender and hustle guy who seems to have improved his offensive game quite substantially.

great post crimson, TP.

but i wanted to ask you this: i thought you weren't impressed with Smart's offensive game?

I'm not "impressed", by any means, with Smart's offensive game. 

Smart's offensive game is mediocre in every sense of the word.  There is not a single thing that he does on the offensive end at an above average level - not one.

But Smart doesn't have to be a good offensive player in order to have significant value in this league.  With his defence and rebounding ability, all he needs to be able to do on offence is simply hold his own - not be a liability.

Last season his offensive game was trash.  He couldn't shoot a three, has barely any midrange game, couldn't finish at the basket, never took advantage of his size in the post, and wasn't great at getting to the basket.

This year in the preseason he's shown flashes of a midrange game, flashes of a post game and some signs of a midrange game.  If he keep that up with some consistency it'll allow him to make up for his poor outside shooting somewhat by being able to score in other ways - kinda like how Turner did for us last year.  If he can at least be a COMPETENT offensive player, then that combined with his defence and rebounding would make him a very valuable player off the bench - thought still not good enough to start over Thomas or Bradley.