Author Topic: Celtics predicted to have fewer wins?!?!  (Read 3299 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Celtics predicted to have fewer wins?!?!
« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2016, 09:02:49 PM »

Offline GRADYCOLNON

  • Jrue Holiday
  • Posts: 327
  • Tommy Points: 26
I'm not even mad.  It'll keep the chip on our shoulders

Re: Celtics predicted to have fewer wins?!?!
« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2016, 09:07:43 PM »

Online kraidstar

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5368
  • Tommy Points: 2478
We should be better than last year.

Brown will have his ups and downs, but any struggles he has won't tank the team.

Losing Sullinger was addition by subtraction. Horford is an enormous upgrade.

Losing Turner hurts, but IMO Rozier will be good, and a little more efficient than ET was. ET was a nice player, but he had some warts too. Let's not forget all the bricked jump shots, especially the horrific .241 3-pt%. A lot of analysts probably have not been following Rozier's impressive development the way we have here, but I expect he has a good chance at equaling or surpassing ET's performance. 

For his career ET has averaged 28.6 MPG shooting .432/.305/.777, with 2.2 FTA/5.2 REB/3.8 Ast.

Rozier is also a good rebounder despite being several inches shorter. He is a slightly weaker passer, but is a better slasher and should force more fouls/FT's. His 3pt percentage should be significantly better. He also has better defensive potential, and can dominate physically. I like him a lot.

Re: Celtics predicted to have fewer wins?!?!
« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2016, 09:17:33 PM »

Offline CelticD

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1201
  • Tommy Points: 140
i mean its not as if the c's improved and everyone else has stayed the same.

u can certainly be a better team with less wins.

Re: Celtics predicted to have fewer wins?!?!
« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2016, 09:55:01 PM »

Offline Royrebirth

  • Oshae Brissett
  • Posts: 68
  • Tommy Points: 9
Hey the Net are predicted to be the worst. If we're the 3rd best team in the east, and the Nets are the worst team, I'm pretty happy.

Re: Celtics predicted to have fewer wins?!?!
« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2016, 10:17:44 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8113
  • Tommy Points: 549
For the Sixers to get 29 wins, Embiid is going to have to put up Wilt type numbers.  29 wins would have been the high water mark with a healthy Simmons. 

Edit:  Their point differential was 10.2 last year and it is 13.0 in the preseason games.  I don't see any way they improve all the way to -4.8 as the simulation suggests.   
« Last Edit: October 20, 2016, 10:23:28 PM by tazzmaniac »

Re: Celtics predicted to have fewer wins?!?!
« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2016, 10:30:35 PM »

Offline jayk009

  • Brad Stevens
  • Posts: 234
  • Tommy Points: 29
I predict 57 wins

Re: Celtics predicted to have fewer wins?!?!
« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2016, 12:23:46 AM »

Offline alldaboston

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4170
  • Tommy Points: 324
I'm not even mad.  It'll keep the chip on our shoulders

I mean, this is the only projection that has us doing worse. Every other projection has us winning 50+ games and getting the second seed in the east. If you ask me, it's Toronto that has the chip on their shoulders. They're just being tossed around as if they aren't good anymore, just because we got Al. Heck, one can argue the hype around us is excessive, and might get to our guy's heads.

Did you know that last year there were a ton of models and projections that predicted that Toronto would barely make the playoffs? That they'd not be anywhere near winning 56 games? That's a chip on their shoulder. They have the same thing this year. People counting them out because of our acquisitions. We don't have any chip on our shoulders thanks to how much hype we're getting from the media.
I could very well see the Hawks... starting Taurean Prince at the 3, who is already better than Crowder, imo.

you vs. the guy she tells you not to worry about

Re: Celtics predicted to have fewer wins?!?!
« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2016, 02:01:13 AM »

Online jpotter33

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 47898
  • Tommy Points: 2906
I'm not even mad.  It'll keep the chip on our shoulders

I mean, this is the only projection that has us doing worse. Every other projection has us winning 50+ games and getting the second seed in the east. If you ask me, it's Toronto that has the chip on their shoulders. They're just being tossed around as if they aren't good anymore, just because we got Al. Heck, one can argue the hype around us is excessive, and might get to our guy's heads.

Did you know that last year there were a ton of models and projections that predicted that Toronto would barely make the playoffs? That they'd not be anywhere near winning 56 games? That's a chip on their shoulder. They have the same thing this year. People counting them out because of our acquisitions. We don't have any chip on our shoulders thanks to how much hype we're getting from the media.

I think it's justified that Al put us over Toronto in everyone's minds. I think Al is clearly the best player on both teams. Derozan and Lowry are second and third, and IT would be fourth, with all of them being pretty close together overall. But I think our supporting cast and coaching is much greater than theirs, which puts us over the top.

Re: Celtics predicted to have fewer wins?!?!
« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2016, 03:28:35 AM »

Offline LatterDayCelticsfan

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2195
  • Tommy Points: 171
  • Community Text
I find it odd so few teams are expected to win 50 plus games. Also we are the shortest team in the league this season
Banner 18 please 😍

Re: Celtics predicted to have fewer wins?!?!
« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2016, 05:30:02 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
Boston looks like it should win 55 this year... but they are also a wildcard for a mid-season surge if they pick up more talent.   You can't rule anything out really.  I could see them landing Hayward before he flees.  I could see a cousins trade.  I could see an Aldridge trade. I could still see a butler trade..  I could even see a Blake trade.  A midseason gallinari deal is definitely reasonable.  You never know.  We will be a player if any talent becomes available on the trade market.   55 wins seems very reasonable especially when you consider the chance of making a big move later this year.

Re: Celtics predicted to have fewer wins?!?!
« Reply #25 on: October 21, 2016, 08:42:04 AM »

Offline mmmmm

  • NCE
  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5308
  • Tommy Points: 862
The error bars on Carmelo predictions -- both for individuals and teams -- are gigantic.  I really wouldn't put too much stock on the exact predicted number.   They are similarly going to have wide error bars on the other teams as well, and all the 'predictions' will tend to weight slightly too much towards .500 due to mixing (the movement of players and regression expectations).

They will likely be reasonably close for most teams, but wildly off the mark on many.

Probably the only real relevant prediction is the prediction of order of finish for the teams.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt?  Incompetent?  Which is worse?  Does it matter?  It sucks.

Re: Celtics predicted to have fewer wins?!?!
« Reply #26 on: October 21, 2016, 10:15:33 AM »

Offline MikeB12

  • Joe Mazzulla
  • Posts: 137
  • Tommy Points: 28
Frankly as poor a shooting team as the Celtics were last year it amazed me that they won as many games as they did - 48 so in my mind they overachieved.

I think it is possible the Celtics will have a better team - better shooting with Horford - but will the wins match that improvement.   Maybe not, so I could see the Celtics winning 48 games again or 50 - which wouldn't surprise me.

I hope the C's win around 55 that would be great...we'll see.

MikeB12