Ranking Players by Preseason Per-36 and EFF stats.

[LarBrd33]

This is the Per-36 stats for our players in preseason.  I have the players ranked by their EFF per 36. 

Small sample size, but here's the breakdown.

[A Future of Stevens]

Correct me if I am wrong, but doesnt EFF account for missed FT in its metric? Since Brown got to the line alot, but struggled mightily from the line wouldnt that tank his?

Other than that I love seeing Horford right at the top lol.

[LarBrd33]

Correct me if I am wrong, but doesnt EFF account for missed FT in its metric? Since Brown got to the line alot, but struggled mightily from the line wouldnt that tank his?

Other than that I love seeing Horford right at the top lol.

EFF is a basic equation that just looks at Points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks... and subtracts missed field goals, missed free throws and turnovers.

Keep in mind that this is adjusted to per-36 numbers. 

Since everyone had their minutes limted, our highest players in EFF were Horford (14.4), Bradley (10.80), Rozier (10.7), Crowder (10.5) and THomas (9.80).    Jaylen's EFF was 9th on the team at 7.6... He averaged 10.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1 steal, but he had a team high 23.3mpg.

He just wasn't efficient.  42% shooting, 27% from three and 58% from the line.
 
And before I get the question... yes, Jaylen's stats were about even with Anthony Bennett's first preseason.  They both had EFF around 7.5 in 21-23mpg. 

Of rookies drafted this year (ignoring rookies like Embiid or undrafted rookies who played well), Jaylen was 15th in EFF.   If you adjust stats per-36 and only look at rookies drafted this year who played at least 15mpg, Jaylen was 18th.   If you remove all filters and include all rookies, he's more like 60th.

However, slightly more optimistic is to look at just guys taken in the lotto this year who played at least 15mpg, only 10 players qualify. Jaylen was 7th on the list ahead of Sabonis, Bender and Dunn. 

#1 Taurean Prince
#2 Marquese Chriss
#3 Jamal Murray
#4 Juan Hernangomez
#5 Buddy Hield
#6 Brandon Ingram
#7 Jaylen Brown
#8 Sabonis
#9 Bender
#10 Dunn

He and Jerebko were our two least efficient players, but anyone who watched the games could clearly see Jaylen showed signs of what he could be in 3 years if he keeps working hard and makes strides. 

[celticsclay]

Correct me if I am wrong, but doesnt EFF account for missed FT in its metric? Since Brown got to the line alot, but struggled mightily from the line wouldnt that tank his?

Other than that I love seeing Horford right at the top lol.

EFF is a basic equation that just looks at Points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks... and subtracts missed field goals, missed free throws and turnovers.

Keep in mind that this is adjusted to per-36 numbers. 

Since everyone had their minutes limted, our highest players in EFF were Horford (14.4), Bradley (10.80), Rozier (10.7), Crowder (10.5) and THomas (9.80).    Jaylen's EFF was 9th on the team at 7.6... He averaged 10.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1 steal, but he had a team high 23.3mpg.

He just wasn't efficient.  42% shooting, 27% from three and 58% from the line.
 
And before I get the question... yes, Jaylen's stats were about even with Anthony Bennett's first preseason.  They both had EFF around 7.5 in 21-23mpg. 

Of rookies drafted this year (ignoring rookies like Embiid or undrafted rookies who played well), Jaylen was 15th in EFF.   If you adjust stats per-36 and only look at rookies drafted this year who played at least 15mpg, Jaylen was 18th.   If you remove all filters and include all rookies, he's more like 60th.

However, slightly more optimistic is to look at just guys taken in the lotto this year who played at least 15mpg, only 10 players qualify. Jaylen was 7th on the list ahead of Sabonis, Bender and Dunn. 

#1 Taurean Prince
#2 Marquese Chriss
#3 Jamal Murray
#4 Juan Hernangomez
#5 Buddy Hield
#6 Brandon Ingram
#7 Jaylen Brown
#8 Sabonis
#9 Bender
#10 Dunn

He and Jerebko were our two least efficient players, but anyone who watched the games could clearly see Jaylen showed signs of what he could be in 3 years if he keeps working hard and makes strides.

Good research. Was prince really that good or more of a Brandon wright style advanced metrics god

[LarBrd33]

Correct me if I am wrong, but doesnt EFF account for missed FT in its metric? Since Brown got to the line alot, but struggled mightily from the line wouldnt that tank his?

Other than that I love seeing Horford right at the top lol.

EFF is a basic equation that just looks at Points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks... and subtracts missed field goals, missed free throws and turnovers.

Keep in mind that this is adjusted to per-36 numbers. 

Since everyone had their minutes limted, our highest players in EFF were Horford (14.4), Bradley (10.80), Rozier (10.7), Crowder (10.5) and THomas (9.80).    Jaylen's EFF was 9th on the team at 7.6... He averaged 10.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1 steal, but he had a team high 23.3mpg.

He just wasn't efficient.  42% shooting, 27% from three and 58% from the line.
 
And before I get the question... yes, Jaylen's stats were about even with Anthony Bennett's first preseason.  They both had EFF around 7.5 in 21-23mpg. 

Of rookies drafted this year (ignoring rookies like Embiid or undrafted rookies who played well), Jaylen was 15th in EFF.   If you adjust stats per-36 and only look at rookies drafted this year who played at least 15mpg, Jaylen was 18th.   If you remove all filters and include all rookies, he's more like 60th.

However, slightly more optimistic is to look at just guys taken in the lotto this year who played at least 15mpg, only 10 players qualify. Jaylen was 7th on the list ahead of Sabonis, Bender and Dunn. 

#1 Taurean Prince
#2 Marquese Chriss
#3 Jamal Murray
#4 Juan Hernangomez
#5 Buddy Hield
#6 Brandon Ingram
#7 Jaylen Brown
#8 Sabonis
#9 Bender
#10 Dunn

He and Jerebko were our two least efficient players, but anyone who watched the games could clearly see Jaylen showed signs of what he could be in 3 years if he keeps working hard and makes strides.

Good research. Was prince really that good or more of a Brandon wright style advanced metrics god

Prince only played 18.9 minutes, but averaged 7.8 points, 4 rebounds, 1.8 steals with 50% shooting and 87% from the line.

He was just efficient.  If you project out his numbers to 36 minutes it's 15 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.5 steals and 1.3 blocks.   Only 6 games with limited minutes, I wouldn't bet the house on a Prince R.O.Y campaign.

Marquese Chriss was pretty impressive, though.  Per 36 of 18.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.9 steals, 1.6 blocks with 46%/38%/65%.   Only 5 games, but also keep in mind that he was the best amongst drafted rookies when numbers weren't adjusted to 36.  He's averaged 27 minutes in preseason:  13.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 1.2 blocks.   Not bad for a player nobody would have been too surprised to see swap draft positions with Jaylen brown (3rd/8th)

[Chris22]

Correct me if I am wrong, but doesnt EFF account for missed FT in its metric? Since Brown got to the line alot, but struggled mightily from the line wouldnt that tank his?

Other than that I love seeing Horford right at the top lol.

EFF is a basic equation that just looks at Points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks... and subtracts missed field goals, missed free throws and turnovers.

Keep in mind that this is adjusted to per-36 numbers. 

Since everyone had their minutes limted, our highest players in EFF were Horford (14.4), Bradley (10.80), Rozier (10.7), Crowder (10.5) and THomas (9.80).    Jaylen's EFF was 9th on the team at 7.6... He averaged 10.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1 steal, but he had a team high 23.3mpg.

He just wasn't efficient.  42% shooting, 27% from three and 58% from the line.
 
And before I get the question... yes, Jaylen's stats were about even with Anthony Bennett's first preseason.  They both had EFF around 7.5 in 21-23mpg. 

Of rookies drafted this year (ignoring rookies like Embiid or undrafted rookies who played well), Jaylen was 15th in EFF.   If you adjust stats per-36 and only look at rookies drafted this year who played at least 15mpg, Jaylen was 18th.   If you remove all filters and include all rookies, he's more like 60th.

However, slightly more optimistic is to look at just guys taken in the lotto this year who played at least 15mpg, only 10 players qualify. Jaylen was 7th on the list ahead of Sabonis, Bender and Dunn. 

#1 Taurean Prince
#2 Marquese Chriss
#3 Jamal Murray
#4 Juan Hernangomez
#5 Buddy Hield
#6 Brandon Ingram
#7 Jaylen Brown
#8 Sabonis
#9 Bender
#10 Dunn

He and Jerebko were our two least efficient players, but anyone who watched the games could clearly see Jaylen showed signs of what he could be in 3 years if he keeps working hard and makes strides.

Good research. Was prince really that good or more of a Brandon wright style advanced metrics god

Prince only played 18.9 minutes, but averaged 7.8 points, 4 rebounds, 1.8 steals with 50% shooting and 87% from the line.

He was just efficient.  If you project out his numbers to 36 minutes it's 15 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.5 steals and 1.3 blocks.   Only 6 games with limited minutes, I wouldn't bet the house on a Prince R.O.Y campaign.

Marquese Chriss was pretty impressive, though.  Per 36 of 18.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.9 steals, 1.6 blocks with 46%/38%/65%.   Only 5 games, but also keep in mind that he was the best amongst drafted rookies when numbers weren't adjusted to 36.  He's averaged 27 minutes in preseason:  13.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 1.2 blocks.   Not bad for a player nobody would have been too surprised to see swap draft positions with Jaylen brown (3rd/8th)

I was torn between Chriss and Brown. Chriss might have been the better choice, but I like Brown as well.

[LarBrd33]

Correct me if I am wrong, but doesnt EFF account for missed FT in its metric? Since Brown got to the line alot, but struggled mightily from the line wouldnt that tank his?

Other than that I love seeing Horford right at the top lol.

EFF is a basic equation that just looks at Points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks... and subtracts missed field goals, missed free throws and turnovers.

Keep in mind that this is adjusted to per-36 numbers. 

Since everyone had their minutes limted, our highest players in EFF were Horford (14.4), Bradley (10.80), Rozier (10.7), Crowder (10.5) and THomas (9.80).    Jaylen's EFF was 9th on the team at 7.6... He averaged 10.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1 steal, but he had a team high 23.3mpg.

He just wasn't efficient.  42% shooting, 27% from three and 58% from the line.
 
And before I get the question... yes, Jaylen's stats were about even with Anthony Bennett's first preseason.  They both had EFF around 7.5 in 21-23mpg. 

Of rookies drafted this year (ignoring rookies like Embiid or undrafted rookies who played well), Jaylen was 15th in EFF.   If you adjust stats per-36 and only look at rookies drafted this year who played at least 15mpg, Jaylen was 18th.   If you remove all filters and include all rookies, he's more like 60th.

However, slightly more optimistic is to look at just guys taken in the lotto this year who played at least 15mpg, only 10 players qualify. Jaylen was 7th on the list ahead of Sabonis, Bender and Dunn. 

#1 Taurean Prince
#2 Marquese Chriss
#3 Jamal Murray
#4 Juan Hernangomez
#5 Buddy Hield
#6 Brandon Ingram
#7 Jaylen Brown
#8 Sabonis
#9 Bender
#10 Dunn

He and Jerebko were our two least efficient players, but anyone who watched the games could clearly see Jaylen showed signs of what he could be in 3 years if he keeps working hard and makes strides.

Good research. Was prince really that good or more of a Brandon wright style advanced metrics god

Prince only played 18.9 minutes, but averaged 7.8 points, 4 rebounds, 1.8 steals with 50% shooting and 87% from the line.

He was just efficient.  If you project out his numbers to 36 minutes it's 15 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.5 steals and 1.3 blocks.   Only 6 games with limited minutes, I wouldn't bet the house on a Prince R.O.Y campaign.

Marquese Chriss was pretty impressive, though.  Per 36 of 18.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.9 steals, 1.6 blocks with 46%/38%/65%.   Only 5 games, but also keep in mind that he was the best amongst drafted rookies when numbers weren't adjusted to 36.  He's averaged 27 minutes in preseason:  13.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 1.2 blocks.   Not bad for a player nobody would have been too surprised to see swap draft positions with Jaylen brown (3rd/8th)

I was torn between Chriss and Brown. Chriss might have been the better choice, but I like Brown as well.

yeah chriss is 10 months younger, I think.

[alldaboston]

I'm not surprised to see Jaylen among the bottom in terms of our team's advanced stats. There was an article before the draft about how his advanced stats were like outside the top 100 for the draft class, and how it was among the lowest ever or something. They went on to compare him to a few other guys who had advanced stats as bad as Brown's, and those guys never panned out.

I really hope Jaylen is completely different from those others.

[manl_lui]

Correct me if I am wrong, but doesnt EFF account for missed FT in its metric? Since Brown got to the line alot, but struggled mightily from the line wouldnt that tank his?

Other than that I love seeing Horford right at the top lol.

EFF is a basic equation that just looks at Points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks... and subtracts missed field goals, missed free throws and turnovers.

Keep in mind that this is adjusted to per-36 numbers. 

Since everyone had their minutes limted, our highest players in EFF were Horford (14.4), Bradley (10.80), Rozier (10.7), Crowder (10.5) and THomas (9.80).    Jaylen's EFF was 9th on the team at 7.6... He averaged 10.7 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1 steal, but he had a team high 23.3mpg.

He just wasn't efficient.  42% shooting, 27% from three and 58% from the line.
 
And before I get the question... yes, Jaylen's stats were about even with Anthony Bennett's first preseason.  They both had EFF around 7.5 in 21-23mpg. 

Of rookies drafted this year (ignoring rookies like Embiid or undrafted rookies who played well), Jaylen was 15th in EFF.   If you adjust stats per-36 and only look at rookies drafted this year who played at least 15mpg, Jaylen was 18th.   If you remove all filters and include all rookies, he's more like 60th.

However, slightly more optimistic is to look at just guys taken in the lotto this year who played at least 15mpg, only 10 players qualify. Jaylen was 7th on the list ahead of Sabonis, Bender and Dunn. 

#1 Taurean Prince
#2 Marquese Chriss
#3 Jamal Murray
#4 Juan Hernangomez
#5 Buddy Hield
#6 Brandon Ingram
#7 Jaylen Brown
#8 Sabonis
#9 Bender
#10 Dunn

He and Jerebko were our two least efficient players, but anyone who watched the games could clearly see Jaylen showed signs of what he could be in 3 years if he keeps working hard and makes strides.

Good research. Was prince really that good or more of a Brandon wright style advanced metrics god

Prince only played 18.9 minutes, but averaged 7.8 points, 4 rebounds, 1.8 steals with 50% shooting and 87% from the line.

He was just efficient.  If you project out his numbers to 36 minutes it's 15 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.5 steals and 1.3 blocks.   Only 6 games with limited minutes, I wouldn't bet the house on a Prince R.O.Y campaign.

Marquese Chriss was pretty impressive, though.  Per 36 of 18.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.9 steals, 1.6 blocks with 46%/38%/65%.   Only 5 games, but also keep in mind that he was the best amongst drafted rookies when numbers weren't adjusted to 36.  He's averaged 27 minutes in preseason:  13.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 1.2 blocks.   Not bad for a player nobody would have been too surprised to see swap draft positions with Jaylen brown (3rd/8th)

I was torn between Chriss and Brown. Chriss might have been the better choice, but I like Brown as well.

yeah chriss is 10 months younger, I think.

hard not to give you a TP for those stats

while I love Brown and loved the pick (still do), I think he still has work to do especially on the FT line. I think he can still improve on some of his shots. Though I will say this, I have more confidence in him improving his shot than Smart. His defense will come. I agree with if he keeps this up, and keeps improving he can be a very good player in 3 years

[PhoSita]

Putting wayyyyy too much stock in preseason stats.


Jaylen Brown looks the part, to my eye.  His footwork in particular has improved massively in just a few months.  I've been quite impressed by him.  He still needs to work on showing up on the boards and he will need to grow as a facilitator and team defender, but you can easily see the potential.  I don't think it is at all unreasonable to project him turning into a Demar Derozan type scoring wing. 


Horford, Thomas, Crowder, Bradley, and Amir all look as we expected.  Very solid.  Ready to start competing in the regular season. 

Brad Stevens is to be commended for how seamless the transition to the Horford era has been so far.  I am excited to see if that continues once the games start to count.


Smart looks more and more like a competent but unspectacular game managing type point guard on the offensive end. 

On the defensive end, he's a versatile playmaker who never stops trying 100%.

I'm no longer holding out hope for any All-Star appearances for him -- not with the point guard position as stacked as it appears it will be for the foreseeable future.  Still, if he stays healthy and continues refining his handle, he will be a role player in the NBA for another decade.  If he can become more consistent as a spot-up three point shooter (i.e. ~33%), he may carve out a regular starting spot some day.

Rozier continues to tantalize.  He will have an opportunity to become a significant cog in the Celtics' rotation this year.  It appears that Turner's role and minutes are there for the taking, with Rozier and Smart vying for the chance.  I'm interested to see if Rozier can produce when the games count and opponents are playing their most experienced and focused players.

[LarBrd33]

Putting wayyyyy too much stock in preseason stats.

I agree.  It's a tiny sample size.   Even so, competition level has to be considered.   A lot of those minutes came against Philly and Brooklyn's scrubs.  It's meaningless.

The main quick-glance takeaways I have from this:

- The starters were super efficient (everyone knew that).   
- Rozier was excellent and hopefully that carries over.   60% from three isn't gonna happen, but if he can get  high 30s, that'd be amazing
- Mickey continues to build a case he's worthy of a real role
- Smart's shooting remains a concern
- Jaylen struggled.

It also might have some value if you're wondering who might have won in the cut competition.

[GRADYCOLNON]

I'm not surprised to see Jaylen among the bottom in terms of our team's advanced stats. There was an article before the draft about how his advanced stats were like outside the top 100 for the draft class, and how it was among the lowest ever or something. They went on to compare him to a few other guys who had advanced stats as bad as Brown's, and those guys never panned out.

I really hope Jaylen is completely different from those others.

 Who are those players former busts in the league or in the same draft class? I'm curious to know if they had an opportunity to play over 20 minutes in the preseason. Otherwise, I'm not concerned. Jaylen has aced the eye test from his high flying dunks to his knack for passing.  I wouldn't be surprised if he flourishes over the next couples years into an all-star. 

[LarBrd33]

I'm not surprised to see Jaylen among the bottom in terms of our team's advanced stats. There was an article before the draft about how his advanced stats were like outside the top 100 for the draft class, and how it was among the lowest ever or something. They went on to compare him to a few other guys who had advanced stats as bad as Brown's, and those guys never panned out.

I really hope Jaylen is completely different from those others.

Just to clarify, these aren't really "advanced stats".   It's just pure stats.  He was inefficient in the minutes he played.   Only Jerebko had worse per minute stats than Jaylen.