Author Topic: Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA  (Read 1378 times)

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Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA
« on: October 20, 2016, 11:43:03 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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We could still use bird rights to go over the cap to sign JJ and Amir...

What kind of deal do you think each would accept?

I'm worry that they will both leave and pursue one last big long contract. And we will be stuck with the mid-level and Jordan Mickey in the regular rotation
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Re: Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA
« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2016, 11:54:39 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Sorry, but unless Blake Griffin is traded for, you won't be able to keep JJ's or Amir's Bird Rights and sign Griffin.

Re: Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA
« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2016, 11:56:20 AM »

Offline JBcat

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I don't think we would have their Bird rights since we only have them signed to 2 years(like Turner), but someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Even so I don't think we would have the roster space for all 3.  Next year our roster crunch could be worse with another Nets pick, Yabu, and Zicic.

Re: Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA
« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2016, 12:01:45 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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I don't think we would have their Bird rights since we only have them signed to 2 years(like Turner), but someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Even so I don't think we would have the roster space for all 3.  Next year our roster crunch could be worse with another Nets pick, Yabu, and Zicic.

We traded for Jonas, so we have his Bird Rights. As for Amir, we'd have his Early Bird which should be enough to resign him if needed I'd say.

Regardless, you're not getting a MAX contract while retaining either's Bird Rights. So, don't worry too much on it.

Edit: I'm not sure if we renounced Jonas a year ago and then resigned him. I'd have to check. I don't think we did.

But the point remains.

Re: Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA
« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2016, 12:59:44 PM »

Offline clevelandceltic

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Well 1st let me say Im not a capologist. With that being said its unlikely that if you signed Blake you would be able to sign both of those players back. Here's why. 1st in order to sign Blake you will need to renounce the rights to Johnson and JJ for sure and maybe Zeller. The cap holds for the 1st two (Zeller is a wait an see type thing although Im sure he will have to be renounced to make room) is 25 million. You cant sign Blake til you clear them off the books.

Sorry about the incoherent thought but yes you will have to waive Zeller as well. Now before things get carried away you have to have KO accept the qualifying offer because he has a high cap hold too.

Now if all of that works you will be left with the difference of the cap space you create to sign Blake. Once Blake is signed you will have to sign JJ and Amir into cap space or exemptions. My feeling is that our stash players will be signed using exemption money. That's just a hunch.

Now there are some minor moves to be made to make all of this happen but alot of things would have to go right in order to have all 3 players.

Check out these links to help find the smaller details.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q41
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/boston-celtics-team-salary/

Re: Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA
« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2016, 01:10:14 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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We could still use bird rights to go over the cap to sign JJ and Amir...

What kind of deal do you think each would accept?

I'm worry that they will both leave and pursue one last big long contract. And we will be stuck with the mid-level and Jordan Mickey in the regular rotation
In order to create the cap space to sign Blake we would need to renounce the bird rights of JJ and Amir.

To keep bird rights you need to keep a player's cap hold on the books which cuts into the cap space.

In fact if the cap is set at 102 like the league projected, we would need to get rid of not just Amir and JJ, but also Hunter/Young, Mickey and Olynyk. Now if the cap comes in higher than expected (which it usually does)

https://twitter.com/dangercart/status/788840272604135430
DKC:  Rockets
CB Draft: Memphis Grizz
Players: Klay Thompson, Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon
Next 3 picks: 4.14, 4.15, 4.19

Re: Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2016, 01:59:46 PM »

Offline clevelandceltic

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That is not correct. The Cs are on the books for 55 million guaranteed next year. If they pick up the options on Smart, Young, and Rozier plus KO signs the qualifying offer they are at basically 69 million.

If you pick up Zeller and retain the cap holds of JJ and Amir thats 34 million.

It all starts with KO taking the qualifying offer.


We could still use bird rights to go over the cap to sign JJ and Amir...

What kind of deal do you think each would accept?

I'm worry that they will both leave and pursue one last big long contract. And we will be stuck with the mid-level and Jordan Mickey in the regular rotation
In order to create the cap space to sign Blake we would need to renounce the bird rights of JJ and Amir.

To keep bird rights you need to keep a player's cap hold on the books which cuts into the cap space.

In fact if the cap is set at 102 like the league projected, we would need to get rid of not just Amir and JJ, but also Hunter/Young, Mickey and Olynyk. Now if the cap comes in higher than expected (which it usually does)

https://twitter.com/dangercart/status/788840272604135430

Re: Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA
« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2016, 02:22:17 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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That is not correct. The Cs are on the books for 55 million guaranteed next year. If they pick up the options on Smart, Young, and Rozier plus KO signs the qualifying offer they are at basically 69 million.

If you pick up Zeller and retain the cap holds of JJ and Amir thats 34 million.

It all starts with KO taking the qualifying offer.


We could still use bird rights to go over the cap to sign JJ and Amir...

What kind of deal do you think each would accept?

I'm worry that they will both leave and pursue one last big long contract. And we will be stuck with the mid-level and Jordan Mickey in the regular rotation
In order to create the cap space to sign Blake we would need to renounce the bird rights of JJ and Amir.

To keep bird rights you need to keep a player's cap hold on the books which cuts into the cap space.

In fact if the cap is set at 102 like the league projected, we would need to get rid of not just Amir and JJ, but also Hunter/Young, Mickey and Olynyk. Now if the cap comes in higher than expected (which it usually does)

https://twitter.com/dangercart/status/788840272604135430

Not sure what you're disputing. Forget Young/KO. Having Amir's cap hold alone, and from those you mention only keeping Smart (and Rozier if you want), you still won't have enough cap space to sign Griffin to a max deal.

Re: Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA
« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2016, 02:53:53 PM »

Offline clevelandceltic

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Go back and read what I wrote. I said you have to renounce the rights to JJ and Amir and get KO to accept the qualifying offer. A deal for Griffin would current start at the same rate as Horford 26 million. They only have 55 million guaranteed next year.

Things have to be done in order. You must start with KO accepting the qualifying offer and just like last year if you get Griffin to say yes, you renounce JJ, Zeller, and Amir. If no you resign them. A cap hold changes once a player signs.

If they sign Smart, Rozier, and Young it puts them at roughly 69 million. They can sign Griffin at 26 million putting them at 95 million. At that point they can sign both back using the remaining space. Now if you think both will take a combined 7 mil well I dont know about that. PLus you have to remember the 2 kids overseas will be about 3 million so really you are only working with 4 million.

That is not correct. The Cs are on the books for 55 million guaranteed next year. If they pick up the options on Smart, Young, and Rozier plus KO signs the qualifying offer they are at basically 69 million.

If you pick up Zeller and retain the cap holds of JJ and Amir thats 34 million.

It all starts with KO taking the qualifying offer.


We could still use bird rights to go over the cap to sign JJ and Amir...

What kind of deal do you think each would accept?

I'm worry that they will both leave and pursue one last big long contract. And we will be stuck with the mid-level and Jordan Mickey in the regular rotation
In order to create the cap space to sign Blake we would need to renounce the bird rights of JJ and Amir.

To keep bird rights you need to keep a player's cap hold on the books which cuts into the cap space.

In fact if the cap is set at 102 like the league projected, we would need to get rid of not just Amir and JJ, but also Hunter/Young, Mickey and Olynyk. Now if the cap comes in higher than expected (which it usually does)

https://twitter.com/dangercart/status/788840272604135430

Not sure what you're disputing. Forget Young/KO. Having Amir's cap hold alone, and from those you mention only keeping Smart (and Rozier if you want), you still won't have enough cap space to sign Griffin to a max deal.

Re: Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA
« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2016, 03:22:45 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Go back and read what I wrote. I said you have to renounce the rights to JJ and Amir and get KO to accept the qualifying offer. A deal for Griffin would current start at the same rate as Horford 26 million. They only have 55 million guaranteed next year.

Things have to be done in order. You must start with KO accepting the qualifying offer and just like last year if you get Griffin to say yes, you renounce JJ, Zeller, and Amir. If no you resign them. A cap hold changes once a player signs.

If they sign Smart, Rozier, and Young it puts them at roughly 69 million. They can sign Griffin at 26 million putting them at 95 million. At that point they can sign both back using the remaining space. Now if you think both will take a combined 7 mil well I dont know about that. PLus you have to remember the 2 kids overseas will be about 3 million so really you are only working with 4 million.

That is not correct. The Cs are on the books for 55 million guaranteed next year. If they pick up the options on Smart, Young, and Rozier plus KO signs the qualifying offer they are at basically 69 million.

If you pick up Zeller and retain the cap holds of JJ and Amir thats 34 million.

It all starts with KO taking the qualifying offer.


We could still use bird rights to go over the cap to sign JJ and Amir...

What kind of deal do you think each would accept?

I'm worry that they will both leave and pursue one last big long contract. And we will be stuck with the mid-level and Jordan Mickey in the regular rotation
In order to create the cap space to sign Blake we would need to renounce the bird rights of JJ and Amir.

To keep bird rights you need to keep a player's cap hold on the books which cuts into the cap space.

In fact if the cap is set at 102 like the league projected, we would need to get rid of not just Amir and JJ, but also Hunter/Young, Mickey and Olynyk. Now if the cap comes in higher than expected (which it usually does)

https://twitter.com/dangercart/status/788840272604135430

Not sure what you're disputing. Forget Young/KO. Having Amir's cap hold alone, and from those you mention only keeping Smart (and Rozier if you want), you still won't have enough cap space to sign Griffin to a max deal.

Sorry, but in no point did YOU mention anything about renouncing JJ and Amir (and if you did, then there's nothing really left to discuss here as the premise of the OP is that we'd have their rights to sign them above the cap).

At a $102M cap, Griffin's rate would be $28+ million starting salary, $28.8M to be more expact apparently.

Which is why I asked, what were you actually disputing from the post you quoted since it wasn't very clear. And without doing that, I can't properly address what you're trying to state.

But I think now I see what you were disagreeing with, you were disagreed with the notion of having to let go of  "Hunter/Young, Mickey and Olynyk". is that correct?

If that's the case, well... yes and no. The 1st round cap hold we'll have (which would probably be in the $3.5M range based on old scale), also Yabusele and Zizic's cap holds to consider as well.

So you have decisions to make. Even if we assume we send Yabusele and Zizic overseas,and we let Hunter/Young go, we'd still be very very tight with approx. $28.5M in cap space and of course, empty roster spot considerations that would simply put us below the full MAX.

Also, I'll have to recheck to make sure, but I'm quite sure there's no tactical advantage to having Olynyk accept his QO... I'm pretty sure it would be equal to his cap hold of $7.7M (but I'll have to refresh myself on this rule). I don't see this happening regardless.

So then we might have Mickey vs. Olynyk to consider if that's the case.

But again, we're working with a lot of assumptions here, in particularly the stashing of those overseas first rounders, which is not that easy to predict at the moment. And with potentially 1st rounders being more expensive in new CBA, things are even tighter and maybe with more hurry to start their rookie scales clocks now instead of what would have usually been a good idea to wait.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2016, 03:33:42 PM by BudweiserCeltic »

Re: Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA
« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2016, 03:47:52 PM »

Offline clevelandceltic

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Yes I was referring to having to let Young and KO go. You do not have to do that if the cap number is the same as Horford which I think Budweiser I think we are disagreeing with each other on. That part is no big deal to me because that wasnt my main point.

My main point to the OP is that you have to renounce JJ and Amir and not pick up anyone other than the people  mentioned in order to sign a Blake.

In terms of KO's cap hold it is 7.7 which is why I said you have to start with his qualifying offer 1st which is 4.8 or something like that.

I did not factor Mickey into the equation because A) Im bringing in Blake B) if you bring in one or both bigs from overseas you will cut him anyways.

Overall Budweiser you and I are on the same page. It would be very difficult for them to bring back JJ and Amir if they brought on Blake.

Re: Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA
« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2016, 04:00:15 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Yes I was referring to having to let Young and KO go. You do not have to do that if the cap number is the same as Horford which I think Budweiser I think we are disagreeing with each other on. That part is no big deal to me because that wasnt my main point.

My main point to the OP is that you have to renounce JJ and Amir and not pick up anyone other than the people  mentioned in order to sign a Blake.

In terms of KO's cap hold it is 7.7 which is why I said you have to start with his qualifying offer 1st which is 4.8 or something like that.

I did not factor Mickey into the equation because A) Im bringing in Blake B) if you bring in one or both bigs from overseas you will cut him anyways.

Overall Budweiser you and I are on the same page. It would be very difficult for them to bring back JJ and Amir if they brought on Blake.

OK, that's why I was confused. :)

As for KO's QO, it'll depend if he qualifies for the starter criteria (which is what I have to refresh my memory on)... considering his injury history probably he won't qualify. But, I can easily see him starting alongside Horford instead of Amir, so that might make things tricky. Maybe Brad/Ainge collude to keep him away from qualifying.

Yes, I think we're overall in a very good understanding... just decisions need to be made and they'll affect what we can and can't do.

I got the max salary for Griffin off this:
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-lowers-2017-18-cap-projection-to-102-million/

The projected maximum salaries for 2017-18, based on a $102 million cap, would near $24 million for players with less than seven years of experience, $28.8 million with seven to nine and $33.5 million for those with 10 years or more.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2016, 04:45:49 PM by BudweiserCeltic »

Re: Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA
« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2016, 05:08:27 PM »

Offline clevelandceltic

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Good convo. I like this. Here are a couple of things that throw wrenches into things. We didnt factor in the Brooklyn pick. When you do that changes the whole Young/ Hunter needing to be cut thing. Now that's only if we assume that the max is 28.8 if a player signs with another team which you are probably right on but I dont remember if that changes with length of contract.








Yes I was referring to having to let Young and KO go. You do not have to do that if the cap number is the same as Horford which I think Budweiser I think we are disagreeing with each other on. That part is no big deal to me because that wasnt my main point.

My main point to the OP is that you have to renounce JJ and Amir and not pick up anyone other than the people  mentioned in order to sign a Blake.

In terms of KO's cap hold it is 7.7 which is why I said you have to start with his qualifying offer 1st which is 4.8 or something like that.

I did not factor Mickey into the equation because A) Im bringing in Blake B) if you bring in one or both bigs from overseas you will cut him anyways.

Overall Budweiser you and I are on the same page. It would be very difficult for them to bring back JJ and Amir if they brought on Blake.

OK, that's why I was confused. :)

As for KO's QO, it'll depend if he qualifies for the starter criteria (which is what I have to refresh my memory on)... considering his injury history probably he won't qualify. But, I can easily see him starting alongside Horford instead of Amir, so that might make things tricky. Maybe Brad/Ainge collude to keep him away from qualifying.

Yes, I think we're overall in a very good understanding... just decisions need to be made and they'll affect what we can and can't do.

I got the max salary for Griffin off this:
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-lowers-2017-18-cap-projection-to-102-million/

The projected maximum salaries for 2017-18, based on a $102 million cap, would near $24 million for players with less than seven years of experience, $28.8 million with seven to nine and $33.5 million for those with 10 years or more.

Re: Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA
« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2016, 06:16:48 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Good convo. I like this. Here are a couple of things that throw wrenches into things. We didnt factor in the Brooklyn pick. When you do that changes the whole Young/ Hunter needing to be cut thing. Now that's only if we assume that the max is 28.8 if a player signs with another team which you are probably right on but I dont remember if that changes with length of contract.








Yes I was referring to having to let Young and KO go. You do not have to do that if the cap number is the same as Horford which I think Budweiser I think we are disagreeing with each other on. That part is no big deal to me because that wasnt my main point.

My main point to the OP is that you have to renounce JJ and Amir and not pick up anyone other than the people  mentioned in order to sign a Blake.

In terms of KO's cap hold it is 7.7 which is why I said you have to start with his qualifying offer 1st which is 4.8 or something like that.

I did not factor Mickey into the equation because A) Im bringing in Blake B) if you bring in one or both bigs from overseas you will cut him anyways.

Overall Budweiser you and I are on the same page. It would be very difficult for them to bring back JJ and Amir if they brought on Blake.

OK, that's why I was confused. :)

As for KO's QO, it'll depend if he qualifies for the starter criteria (which is what I have to refresh my memory on)... considering his injury history probably he won't qualify. But, I can easily see him starting alongside Horford instead of Amir, so that might make things tricky. Maybe Brad/Ainge collude to keep him away from qualifying.

Yes, I think we're overall in a very good understanding... just decisions need to be made and they'll affect what we can and can't do.

I got the max salary for Griffin off this:
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-lowers-2017-18-cap-projection-to-102-million/

The projected maximum salaries for 2017-18, based on a $102 million cap, would near $24 million for players with less than seven years of experience, $28.8 million with seven to nine and $33.5 million for those with 10 years or more.

I did factor the Brooklyn pick, which I estimate around the $3.5 give or take range but should be anywhere between $1.8 to $5 million. Remember it's a pick swap this time around and I'm using the current scale, don't know if it'll remain the same by next Summer.

Re: Let's say we land Blake Griffin next FA
« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2016, 10:09:42 PM »

Offline trickybilly

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It seems to me that we can only sign Blake is without the cap holds of KO, JJ, and Amir, getting in the way

I'm not sure how the KO situation plays out, it will be timeline sensitive, because it might be the case that the smaller QO will count, i.e. after the QO is made but before some team offers KO a Godfather offer - and in this case KO obviously would not count against the cap at all.

Next year is going to fascinating for sure.
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