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Defense and rebounding
« on: September 29, 2016, 05:54:00 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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                 Def. Rat.     Off. Reb%     Def. Reb.%       DFG%        3pt.DFG%         Rim Prot.%

S.A            96.6 (1)      23.0 (23)       79.1 (3)         43.6 (4)       33.2 (1T)           50.0 (3)
Atl.            98.8 (2)      19.1 (30)       74.6 (25T)      43.2 (1)       33.9 (6)             51.1 (10)
Ind.          100.2 (3)     23.4 (20)       76.0 (15T)      44.0 (6)       33.4 (3)             51.5 (12)
L.A.C.       100.9 (4T)    20.1 (28)       73.8 (28)       43.4 (2)       33.8 (4T)           50.9 (8T)
Bos.          100.9 (4T)    25.1 (9T)       74.6 (25T)     44.2 (9)       33.8 (4T)           53.6 (22)
G.S.          100.9 (4T)    23.5 (19)       76.0 (15T)     43.5 (3)       33.2 (1T)           50.4 (4T)
Mia.          101.5 (7)      23.8 (17)       77.8 (6)         44.1 (7T)     34.9 (13T)         50.9 (8T)
Utah          101.6 (8.)     25.9 (3T)       77.7 (7T)       44.6 (13)      35.8 (18)          49.7 (2)
Cha.          101.8 (9)     20.0 (29)       79.8 (1)         44.4 (11T)    34.9 (13T)         52.1 (15T)
Cle.           102.3 (10)   25.1 (9T)       78.5 (5)         44.7 (14)      34.7 (11)           52.6 (16T)
Tor.            102.7 (11)   24.6 (12)       77.7 (7T)       44.4 (11T)    37.3 (29)           51.9 (13)
O.K.C.        103.0 (12)   31.1 (1)         76.0 (15T)     43.8 (5)        34.2 (8.)            50.4 (4T)

In parenthesis are the teams league rank in that category.  The top 12 teams are ranked by their defensive ratings from last year. 

Things that can be inferred by looking at this data.

1.  Offensive rebounding is detrimental to a teams defense.  For the most part the best defenses       do not emphasize Off. Reb. in order to shut down transition offense of their opponents.  This has been widely accepted for a long time, the gains just don't outweigh the risks.

2.  Defensive rebounding doesn't correlate highly to great defense at least not in this current era.  There appears to be more important things like defending field goal attempts aggressively that cause a team to rebound at lower rates.  I believe this is because defending the 3 point line has become critical to a successful defense and big men are being forced to defend further and further from the hoop. 

3.  Defending the 3 point line appears to be even more important than protecting the rim.

I post this mainly because so many people are hung up on rebounding.  There are bigger things to worry about in today's game like speed (especially on defense), spacing, shooting and a team oriented mindset that are resulting in wins.  It just isn't a league where the unskilled bangers of the past can or will find success.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2016, 05:59:51 PM by The Oracle »

Re: Defense and rebounding
« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2016, 06:36:47 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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OKC, CLE, and SAS were all top 5 in the league in Rebound Rate.  GSW, MIA, POR, and TOR were top 10.

All of the teams that made the 2nd round of the playoffs, with the exception of the Hawks -- who got steamrolled -- were in the top 10 in Rebound Rate during the regular season.


In the playoffs, OKC and CLE were 1 and 2 in Rebound Rate.  GSW was 10th.

In the Finals, Cleveland out-rebounded Golden State 307 - 279.  The edge in ORB was 82-72.  Considering the series came down to the final shot, that's fairly significant.


I think you're right that rebounding may be overrated somewhat in the regular season, but rebounding helps you a lot in the playoffs.
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Re: Defense and rebounding
« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2016, 07:40:51 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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OKC, CLE, and SAS were all top 5 in the league in Rebound Rate.  GSW, MIA, POR, and TOR were top 10.

All of the teams that made the 2nd round of the playoffs, with the exception of the Hawks -- who got steamrolled -- were in the top 10 in Rebound Rate during the regular season.


In the playoffs, OKC and CLE were 1 and 2 in Rebound Rate.  GSW was 10th.

In the Finals, Cleveland out-rebounded Golden State 307 - 279.  The edge in ORB was 82-72.  Considering the series came down to the final shot, that's fairly significant.


I think you're right that rebounding may be overrated somewhat in the regular season, but rebounding helps you a lot in the playoffs.
The last time I had a discussion about rebound % or rebound rate as you call it I almost blew a gasket trying to explain it LOL.  Rebound % is a misleading statistic, winning teams usually have better reb. % because their opponents miss more shots than they do affording them more rebounding opportunities on the defensive end skewing the Total reb.% to make them appear to be better at rebounding which is not necessarily the case.  They do get more rebounds because everyone has an advantage on their defensive end and if your opponents miss many more shots than you do you will have a natural advantage on total reb. % even though they may very well have been out rebounded % wise on both ends of the floor.

Example: G.S. during the regular season was out rebounded % wise on both ends of the floor by their opponents, G.S. 23.5% on the offensive end while there opponents 24%, G.S. 76% on the defensive end their opponents 76.5%.  They did however have a ton more total rebounds than their opponents because G.S. shot so much better and missed a great deal fewer shots than their opponents did.  Reb. rate or Reb. % whatever you want to call it is not a measure of how good you are at rebounding, it is a measure of the % of total rebounds you acquire.

« Last Edit: September 29, 2016, 07:52:31 PM by The Oracle »

Re: Defense and rebounding
« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2016, 09:00:04 PM »

Offline Bobshot

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Offense counts, too. And that's where they don't match with Clev and GS. It's both offense and defense.

Celts would be higher in defense rating if they were better in defensive rebounding and rim protection. See S.A.. Celts perimeter defense (3P) is better. Where their high rating comes from.

Re: Defense and rebounding
« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2016, 09:23:20 PM »

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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All I know is that Boston's been hurt by bad rebounding waaaay too many times in the last decade, and I hope that changes this year.
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Re: Defense and rebounding
« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2016, 05:30:03 AM »

Offline The Oracle

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All I know is that Boston's been hurt by bad rebounding waaaay too many times in the last decade, and I hope that changes this year.
The numbers and rankings of the 2008 Celtics title team compared to last years Celtics. 
           
                  Regular season
            Off. Reb.%    Def. Reb.%

07/08    26.6(17T)      74.4(8.)
15/16    25.1(9T)        74.6(25T)

Last years C's were slightly better than the title team on the defensive end % wise, slightly worse on the offensive end.  What you should be hoping for is the C's to score more efficiently (which they certainly should this year) resulting in fewer rebounding opportunities for their opponents.  I wouldn't expect their rebounding percentages to go up strictly because of how Brad chooses to use his big men.  All of Horford/K.O./Jerebko and even Amir will spend a lot of time on the perimeter offensively, and defending the perimeter and transition on defense.  It is far more valuable to do so and sacrifice a few rebounds in the process.

Re: Defense and rebounding
« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2016, 09:32:05 AM »

Offline Surferdad

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I am not a stat geek (though I do have good math skills) but what would like to see is:

1.  How offensive rebounding correlates to offensive FG%.
2.  How defensive rebounding correlates to defensive FG%.

In other words, more rebounds on either end could be related to how often the ball goes into the hoop.

Re: Defense and rebounding
« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2016, 09:58:46 AM »

Online BitterJim

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OKC, CLE, and SAS were all top 5 in the league in Rebound Rate.  GSW, MIA, POR, and TOR were top 10.

All of the teams that made the 2nd round of the playoffs, with the exception of the Hawks -- who got steamrolled -- were in the top 10 in Rebound Rate during the regular season.


In the playoffs, OKC and CLE were 1 and 2 in Rebound Rate.  GSW was 10th.

In the Finals, Cleveland out-rebounded Golden State 307 - 279.  The edge in ORB was 82-72.  Considering the series came down to the final shot, that's fairly significant.


I think you're right that rebounding may be overrated somewhat in the regular season, but rebounding helps you a lot in the playoffs.
The last time I had a discussion about rebound % or rebound rate as you call it I almost blew a gasket trying to explain it LOL.  Rebound % is a misleading statistic, winning teams usually have better reb. % because their opponents miss more shots than they do affording them more rebounding opportunities on the defensive end skewing the Total reb.% to make them appear to be better at rebounding which is not necessarily the case.  They do get more rebounds because everyone has an advantage on their defensive end and if your opponents miss many more shots than you do you will have a natural advantage on total reb. % even though they may very well have been out rebounded % wise on both ends of the floor.

Example: G.S. during the regular season was out rebounded % wise on both ends of the floor by their opponents, G.S. 23.5% on the offensive end while there opponents 24%, G.S. 76% on the defensive end their opponents 76.5%.  They did however have a ton more total rebounds than their opponents because G.S. shot so much better and missed a great deal fewer shots than their opponents did.  Reb. rate or Reb. % whatever you want to call it is not a measure of how good you are at rebounding, it is a measure of the % of total rebounds you acquire.

Gotta love Simpson's paradox.  You sometimes see something similar with shooting percentages, where Player A can hive a higher 2p% and 3p% than Player B, but a lower FG% because of the different relative numbers of 2pa and 3pa.  That's a major reason that I hate raw FG% as a stat

Example: Avery Bradley vs. Pau Gasol last season (http://bkref.com/tiny/Fr02c)

Bradley: 50.5% 2p,  36.1% 3p,  44.7% total
Gasol:    48.1% 2p,  34.8% 3p,  46.9% total
I'm bitter.

Re: Defense and rebounding
« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2016, 09:59:09 AM »

Offline A Future of Stevens

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All I know is that Boston's been hurt by bad rebounding waaaay too many times in the last decade, and I hope that changes this year.
The numbers and rankings of the 2008 Celtics title team compared to last years Celtics. 
           
                  Regular season
            Off. Reb.%    Def. Reb.%

07/08    26.6(17T)      74.4(8.)
15/16    25.1(9T)        74.6(25T)

Last years C's were slightly better than the title team on the defensive end % wise, slightly worse on the offensive end.  What you should be hoping for is the C's to score more efficiently (which they certainly should this year) resulting in fewer rebounding opportunities for their opponents.  I wouldn't expect their rebounding percentages to go up strictly because of how Brad chooses to use his big men.  All of Horford/K.O./Jerebko and even Amir will spend a lot of time on the perimeter offensively, and defending the perimeter and transition on defense.  It is far more valuable to do so and sacrifice a few rebounds in the process.

If I am reading those stats correctly (# is the percentage of possible opportunities the team had to rebound the ball) then I find an interesting trend is apparent.

This past year we were a hair better at defensively rebounding the ball, but compared to everyone else in the league we were tied for 25th best. For offensive rebounding we were significantly worse, but compared to our peers we were better than that respective title year.

Very interesting trends happening in the nba.
#JKJB

Re: Defense and rebounding
« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2016, 01:21:14 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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OKC, CLE, and SAS were all top 5 in the league in Rebound Rate.  GSW, MIA, POR, and TOR were top 10.

All of the teams that made the 2nd round of the playoffs, with the exception of the Hawks -- who got steamrolled -- were in the top 10 in Rebound Rate during the regular season.


In the playoffs, OKC and CLE were 1 and 2 in Rebound Rate.  GSW was 10th.

In the Finals, Cleveland out-rebounded Golden State 307 - 279.  The edge in ORB was 82-72.  Considering the series came down to the final shot, that's fairly significant.


I think you're right that rebounding may be overrated somewhat in the regular season, but rebounding helps you a lot in the playoffs.
The last time I had a discussion about rebound % or rebound rate as you call it I almost blew a gasket trying to explain it LOL.  Rebound % is a misleading statistic, winning teams usually have better reb. % because their opponents miss more shots than they do affording them more rebounding opportunities on the defensive end skewing the Total reb.% to make them appear to be better at rebounding which is not necessarily the case.  They do get more rebounds because everyone has an advantage on their defensive end and if your opponents miss many more shots than you do you will have a natural advantage on total reb. % even though they may very well have been out rebounded % wise on both ends of the floor.

Example: G.S. during the regular season was out rebounded % wise on both ends of the floor by their opponents, G.S. 23.5% on the offensive end while there opponents 24%, G.S. 76% on the defensive end their opponents 76.5%.  They did however have a ton more total rebounds than their opponents because G.S. shot so much better and missed a great deal fewer shots than their opponents did.  Reb. rate or Reb. % whatever you want to call it is not a measure of how good you are at rebounding, it is a measure of the % of total rebounds you acquire.

It definitely gets complicated when we're trying to suss out how much of rebounding is due to how good you are at preventing the opponent from putting the ball in the hoop, or putting it in the hoop yourself.

What I'm interested in is how good teams are at grabbing the rebounds that are available.  It defies common sense ("rebounding wins championships") and math-sense ("winning the possession battle matters") that rebounding would not be correlated with winning games, especially playoff games where shooting percentages tend to go down.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Defense and rebounding
« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2016, 01:58:01 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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OKC, CLE, and SAS were all top 5 in the league in Rebound Rate.  GSW, MIA, POR, and TOR were top 10.

All of the teams that made the 2nd round of the playoffs, with the exception of the Hawks -- who got steamrolled -- were in the top 10 in Rebound Rate during the regular season.


In the playoffs, OKC and CLE were 1 and 2 in Rebound Rate.  GSW was 10th.

In the Finals, Cleveland out-rebounded Golden State 307 - 279.  The edge in ORB was 82-72.  Considering the series came down to the final shot, that's fairly significant.


I think you're right that rebounding may be overrated somewhat in the regular season, but rebounding helps you a lot in the playoffs.
The last time I had a discussion about rebound % or rebound rate as you call it I almost blew a gasket trying to explain it LOL.  Rebound % is a misleading statistic, winning teams usually have better reb. % because their opponents miss more shots than they do affording them more rebounding opportunities on the defensive end skewing the Total reb.% to make them appear to be better at rebounding which is not necessarily the case.  They do get more rebounds because everyone has an advantage on their defensive end and if your opponents miss many more shots than you do you will have a natural advantage on total reb. % even though they may very well have been out rebounded % wise on both ends of the floor.

Example: G.S. during the regular season was out rebounded % wise on both ends of the floor by their opponents, G.S. 23.5% on the offensive end while there opponents 24%, G.S. 76% on the defensive end their opponents 76.5%.  They did however have a ton more total rebounds than their opponents because G.S. shot so much better and missed a great deal fewer shots than their opponents did.  Reb. rate or Reb. % whatever you want to call it is not a measure of how good you are at rebounding, it is a measure of the % of total rebounds you acquire.

Gotta love Simpson's paradox.  You sometimes see something similar with shooting percentages, where Player A can hive a higher 2p% and 3p% than Player B, but a lower FG% because of the different relative numbers of 2pa and 3pa.  That's a major reason that I hate raw FG% as a stat

Example: Avery Bradley vs. Pau Gasol last season (http://bkref.com/tiny/Fr02c)

Bradley: 50.5% 2p,  36.1% 3p,  44.7% total
Gasol:    48.1% 2p,  34.8% 3p,  46.9% total
You are correct FG% no longer holds any true value as a statistic.  Prior to the implementation of the 3 point line it was a valid stat, but once that 2nd variable was added it became obsolete.  It is along the lines of batting average in baseball, a .270 hitter that just slaps singles holds one value where a .270 hitter that hits 40 homers and a bunch of doubles holds another.  Another example would be if there were a scoring% stat. in football measuring how often you scored as a team, it doesn't matter if you score more often if all you are doing is kicking FG's.  What truly matters is the average amount of points you score per time you possess the ball.  There are much better measures of what is actually occurring on a basketball floor like TS% and EFG%.

Re: Defense and rebounding
« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2016, 03:24:10 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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I am not a stat geek (though I do have good math skills) but what would like to see is:

1.  How offensive rebounding correlates to offensive FG%.
2.  How defensive rebounding correlates to defensive FG%.

In other words, more rebounds on either end could be related to how often the ball goes into the hoop.
There is very little correlation between off. reb.% and FG%.  The Celtics, Charlotte, Knicks and the Pistons all tied for 24th with a FG% of 43.9%.  The Pistons were 2nd in Off. Reb.%, Boston 9th tie, Knicks 18th and Charlotte was 29th at only 20%.  Many def. reb.% and DFG% are in the 1st post I made in this thread, you will see that many of the best defenses are excellent at defending FG attempts while having middling to poor rebounding rates on the defensive end.

Re: Defense and rebounding
« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2016, 04:55:01 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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1.  Offensive rebounding is detrimental to a teams defense.  For the most part the best defenses       do not emphasize Off. Reb. in order to shut down transition offense of their opponents.  This has been widely accepted for a long time, the gains just don't outweigh the risks.

Overstated headline here, I think. Your point is a good one, but the exceptions on your list are instructive. Utah and Oklahoma City were third and first in offensive rebounding percentage, and second and fourth in rim protection – not a coincidence. I say you've overstated the point, even though these teams are in the minority; they are both trying to get an advantage by going against the grain in the way that they use their bigs.

2.  Defensive rebounding doesn't correlate highly to great defense at least not in this current era.  There appears to be more important things like defending field goal attempts aggressively that cause a team to rebound at lower rates.  I believe this is because defending the 3 point line has become critical to a successful defense and big men are being forced to defend further and further from the hoop. 

Not all defensive rebounds are created equal.

For example, if a team fouls a lot, they will likely drive up their defensive rebound percentage, since every team in the league has an overwhelming advantage in getting opponents' free throw rebounds.

But fouling a lot is very bad for your def. rating.

Free throw rebounds should be compiled separately from field-goal rebounds.




I post this mainly because so many people are hung up on rebounding.  There are bigger things to worry about in today's game like speed (especially on defense), spacing, shooting and a team oriented mindset that are resulting in wins.  It just isn't a league where the unskilled bangers of the past can or will find success.

One thing remains true in this new era of professional basketball: somehow, the defense has to complete the possession and get hold of the ball, whether through a rebound or some other way. What else is there? Turnovers, time running out, taking it out of the basket.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2016, 01:07:30 AM by ThePaintedArea »

Re: Defense and rebounding
« Reply #13 on: September 30, 2016, 05:31:31 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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A team has to get the ball to run, therefore offensive rebounds have some defense merit in stopping the fast break.  It can also lead to one if too many crash the boards.   But outrebounding a team can hurt their transition points sometimes.

Re: Defense and rebounding
« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2016, 06:48:16 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Nerlins seems to be the logical move for the Celtics .


Goodbye KO?