Fully anticipate some obnoxious comment about how I have egg in my face 40 minutes into the first game of a process that will likely take a half decade to fully comprehend.
Mike
Hinkie was hired in 2013-14 and set forward a rebuild. He traded the team's lone all-star (Holiday) for then-injured Nerlens Noel and a pick that would eventually net Dario Saric. A potentially excellent deal we can't yet fully evaluate in spite of Jrue Holiday's struggles.
Meanwhile, Boston also began a rebuild by trading two all-stars (Pierce and KG) as well as multiple veteran contributors like Jason Terry. Ainge clearly had more assets to work with when that rebuild began - for instance, he was able to trade his coach for a 1st round pick. But it's worth noting that despite having more assets to work with, the multi all-star trade to Brooklyn was magnified by the fact that Brooklyn obscenely overpaid in what may go down as one of the greatest heists in NBA trade history.
Initially, they took similar routes. Philly tanked... 19 wins. Boston tanked... 25 wins.
Hence why these two clubs are linked in the eyes of fans... especially on the Celtic forum. They both started their rebuilds by consciously tanking in the Summer of 2013. They both had their eyes on the 2014 draft everyone was calling potentially 8 stars deep. For what it's worth, both teams landed one of the "potential stars" and both have failed (so far) to live up to that label. The net result: Embiid for Philly. Smart for Boston.
2014-15 - The next season, Philly tanked again. Likewise, Ainge, having missed out on the prized Embiid/Parker/Wiggins top tier, made every move necessary to set his team up for an even more aggressive tankjob. Once again trading an all-star (Rondo) as well the team's best scorer (Jeff Green) for young role players and future draft assets. Quintessential tank-job maneuvers. Despite these strong tanking efforts, Ainge underestimated the powers of his young creative coach and the surprising effectiveness of the role players he had acquired. Much to Ainge's chagrin (he repeatedly made pretty transparent comments that suggested he preferred bottoming out to making the playoffs with a losing record), the team went on a surprising run. This effort was further boosted when Ainge found an opportunity to land an all-star caliber point guard for a lowly 1st rounder - thus Ainge jumped at the opportunity to snag Thomas in a no-brainer trade despite the fact it destroyed his tanking efforts. This effort was even further boosted by the fact that the Eastern Conference was a complete joke and a team with losing record (Boston's 40 wins) was able to make the playoffs. Boston was predictably swept in the first round of a mostly pointless playoff appearance, but it set up a transition that needed to be built upon. The Net result: Okafor for Philly. Rozier for the Celtics, though had the team merely lost most of their games in the final week, they would have gotten Ainge's true prize - Justice Winslow. He paid the price and reported was willing to upwards of 6 draft picks (including 4 first rounders) in a failed attempt to acquire Winslow on draft night. Rozier spent his rookie season in the D-league, but has shown some encourage signs in Summer league - so perhaps that will work out.
2015-16 - Philly likely would have made an honest effort to win games, but with Embiid's doctors encouraging a bone graft and Saric refusing to come to the States, they opted to make another tanking effort. This was very transparent in their absolute refusal to sign veteran players and instead fill out the roster with D-Leaguers. While this decision has been blasted by everyone I think it was a pretty obvious decision to make that I find completely defensible. Boston, on the hand, pivoted towards trying to be as competitive as possible. Net result: Philly lands what is believed to be a transcendent talent in Ben Simmons (thus potentially vindicating their decision to tank for a 3rd year straight). Boston builds on their previous playoff experience to a solid 48 win season and also-ran 1st round exit. They take Yabusele with their draft pick and keep him over seas due to an inability to clear out their overabundance of young players and picks. Also worth noting, Boston lands another major draft chip (Brown) they received from trading two all-stars in the 2013 Brooklyn heist.
So that catches you up to right now. I have always been a strong supporter of Danny Ainge. As far as I'm concerned, he's the best GM in the league. I've never wavered from that. At no point have I ever suggested Sam Hinkie was a better GM or that Philly's strategy was "better". Fact is, their strategies were basically identical early on. Boston had more to work with. Ainge's trades net him contributors that helped the team be competitive. He also expertly set the team up to be a major player in free agency - which paid off this year in the addition of Al Horford.
It's important to note, though... that despite these teams being linked on this forum, Boston's success really has nothing to do with Philly's strategy. And while Boston has undeniably built an intriguing team that is a superstar away from being a real contender, that does not at all negate what Philly has done thus far. Boston projects to win 55+ games this season. If they are able to land a star, they might be a real contender in the next two years.
But do not be confused, Mike. Just because Boston converted a 2008 title team into a 2015 playoff team does not mean Philly has "failed". Philly hasn't won a championship since 1983. Aside from the overrated Iverson teams, that squad has been an also-ran or lotto squad for decades.
The part you struggle with, repeatedly, obnoxiously, and incessantly - is the pretty straight-forward concept that we can't really judge whether or not Philly's plan was successful until we get a chance to see how it plays out. We've literally not seen the fruits of their labor on the court together. Embiid, Saric and Simmons havent' played a professional NBA game yet.
You bring up Marcus Smart in some nonsense comment about how I gave up on his potential after 8 weeks/8 games. That's hogwash. We've seen two years of minimal development out of Smart. He's been a disappointment considering where he was picked. Despite this, I've repeatedly said I'm optimistic that he may make a leap in year 3. I haven't given up on Smart. It takes time. If he has another disappointing season (meaning, he looks like a long-term defensive roleplayer as opposed to a future star), I'll lose confidence in him. But you gotta give that kid at least 3 years and it's only been 2.
Likewise, we can't make any kind of actual judgement on Philly for 3 years at the very minimum. Let's see how Embiid, Saric and Simmons look in a few years. That's what all the tanking was for. Let's see if it works out. Let's see if Okafor nets them something in a trade or if he develops into the all-star he still very well may become. It's completely foolish to dismiss what they've done. If your barometer for success is whether or not they managed to win 48 games and get swept in the first round, yeah - they didn't do that in the past three years. But for a team that has not been a real contender since the 1980s, continuing to dismiss the significant potential of their dramatic efforts over the past 3 of those 30+ years is pretty ignorant. This is a Superstar's league. They went went all-in for superstars via the draft. In 3-5 years, we'll see if it succeeded. Meanwhile, Boston is also going all-in for superstars and has thus fair failed to acquire one. They are both heading towards the same goal. And I get why a Celtic fan would get defensive when it's suggested Philly might have beat them to the punch 3x over, but we'll just have to wait and see to find out whether or not that's even the case. As you said, it took until Ainge's 5th year until he succeeded into turning a team (that had two all-stars when he inherited it) into a contender. On Ainge's 4th year, the team was in the bottom 5. Welp, Philly just finished up the 3rd year of their plan and they may have succeeded in landing multiple superstars ... "80% of the rebuild" as you'd put it.
I'll tell you this, though. I watched like 30 seconds of practice footage today and Embiid looked like garbage. And while Simmons showed undeniably impressive signs in Summer League, there's still a chance he busts. Just gotta wait to see if it works out for them. My opinion of the Boston vs Philly tank job efforts changed two years ago when Boston pivoted towards a free agency goal. I've been very strongly supporting the efforts Ainge has made and genuinely love everything the Celtics are doing here. I'm allowed to say that and at the same time defend Philly's efforts. You and Eddie can bellyache all you want about how defending Philly makes me a 76er fan/Celtic hater, but I assure you it's possible for a Celtic fan to have a rational opinion about other teams. Bottom line is that there's a lot of irrelevant teams in this league that will never threaten for a championship. The amount of teams that actually have won titles over the past 30+ years is small and always includes a Superstar. Philly took a dramatic approach to try and be one of the teams that matters. Whether you want to admit it or not, I'm right in that it's going to take a lot of time to see if Philly succeeded.
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