Author Topic: Who's the second option on offense  (Read 2725 times)

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Re: Who's the second option on offense
« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2016, 03:49:36 PM »

Offline Surferdad

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Whomever is hot that night.

I don't agree with the whole idea.  I get the idea of #1, #2 and all that to a point but basketball isn't like a pass play in football where you look here first then here...  There is no benefit to thinking in terms of #1, #2 etc.  There is no value to the team in even trying to define this.

The most successful teams will simply move the ball and find the open man.  Sometimes you may be looking to feed a hot hand but that is usually not the best approach either.  Being "hot" is a debatable theory anyway.  Red believed you could be hot but sabermetrics tell us that it is statistically normal to hit say 5 shots in a row sometimes.  Sooner or later, a hot player takes a shot that gets called a "heat check" and usually misses and goes back to shooting their normal percentages.

Of course at the end of games, you want the ball in the hands of you best creater (not necessarily best scorer) but for the vast majority of the play, you need to force the issue, see how the defense reacts, and then keep the ball moving until you find an open man or a beneficial match-up that may have been created by a switch.  I don't think IT should even think of himself as #1.  He should be trying to create and keep the ball moving, finding open people, take shots when they are there, just the same as the other 4 on the court.
I think Stevens agrees with you.  It is simply fans' short-hand to say #1, #2, #3 scorer but this really means the scoring leaders for any given game, not that this person is actually the #1, #2 or #3 option within the offense.  That's how I interpret it anyway.

Re: Who's the second option on offense
« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2016, 05:00:25 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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Re: Who's the second option on offense
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2016, 05:48:05 PM »

Offline Big333223

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Whomever is hot that night.

I don't agree with the whole idea.  I get the idea of #1, #2 and all that to a point but basketball isn't like a pass play in football where you look here first then here...  There is no benefit to thinking in terms of #1, #2 etc.  There is no value to the team in even trying to define this.

The most successful teams will simply move the ball and find the open man.  Sometimes you may be looking to feed a hot hand but that is usually not the best approach either.  Being "hot" is a debatable theory anyway.  Red believed you could be hot but sabermetrics tell us that it is statistically normal to hit say 5 shots in a row sometimes.  Sooner or later, a hot player takes a shot that gets called a "heat check" and usually misses and goes back to shooting their normal percentages.

Of course at the end of games, you want the ball in the hands of you best creater (not necessarily best scorer) but for the vast majority of the play, you need to force the issue, see how the defense reacts, and then keep the ball moving until you find an open man or a beneficial match-up that may have been created by a switch.  I don't think IT should even think of himself as #1.  He should be trying to create and keep the ball moving, finding open people, take shots when they are there, just the same as the other 4 on the court.
I think Stevens agrees with you.  It is simply fans' short-hand to say #1, #2, #3 scorer but this really means the scoring leaders for any given game, not that this person is actually the #1, #2 or #3 option within the offense.  That's how I interpret it anyway.
Sure, you want to find the open man but its adventageous for a team to design an offense that makes their best offensive player that open man as much as possible. That guy would be your first option.
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Re: Who's the second option on offense
« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2016, 06:18:14 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
  Red believed you could be hot but sabermetrics tell us that it is statistically normal to hit say 5 shots in a row sometimes.  Sooner or later, a hot player takes a shot that gets called a "heat check" and usually misses and goes back to shooting their normal percentages.

CBS routinely and the team try to get the ball to the hot hand when they play, this is especially true of out of balance plays that he is liked for.

I played a lot of ball and the hot hand thing is true.   I scored 27PPG in the Army Team I played for  off over 50% shooting and I was routinely considered the hot hand.  But there where nights where a guy who could not throw a ball in the ocean got hot.

I know there were papers that compared shooting to flipping a coin but shooters get in a groove and have nights where feel good.   Little the D can do can stop them.   Of course, they have nights too where they do not have it.   But coaches try to get the ball to guys having these nights.  I think Red knew what he was doing.  Coaches have believed in this for years. 

Read this :

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-hot-hand-debate-gets-flipped-on-its-head-1443465711

The 1985 paper saying the hot hand was a myth has been debunked.   Making a shot can also improve a players confidence.

« Last Edit: September 22, 2016, 06:26:51 PM by Celtics4ever »