Author Topic: Do most people think that the Celtics Won't Pay up for Isaiah Thomas?  (Read 9151 times)

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Re: Do most people think that the Celtics Won't Pay up for Isaiah Thomas?
« Reply #45 on: September 23, 2016, 01:08:06 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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"The league’s last 25 champions had starting point guards with an average salary accounting for only 11.3 percent of that year’s cap. That’s the equivalent of $10.6 million (or, nearly, Austin Rivers’s 2016–17 salary) under this season’s enormous $94.1 million salary cap. Only two of the championship point guards have accounted for slightly over "20 percent of a cap (Tony Parker in 2014 and Irving in 2016), and only Parker was the highest-paid player on his team. Instead of splurging on star free-agent point guards, general managers of Finals winners have typically leaned on young 1s (Rajon Rondo, B.J. Armstrong, early-’00s Parker) or PGs on inexpensive deals (Derek Fisher, Mario Chalmers, Avery Johnson), paying the spared funds to stars at different positions and key role players."

Kevin O'Connor wrote this recently in Ringer as he discusses the advantages of grabbing a rookie point guard in 2017 draft. It seems that paying IT a large chunk of salary cap, considering his age is not that logical - if history holds.

Full article: https://theringer.com/2017-nba-draft-point-guards-markelle-fultz-dennis-smith-jr-ef66c2bf3653#.ey58ayic0

Hmm... "the last 25 champions" amounts to ... how many distinct _teams_?  Probably closer to a little less than half that number?    So that's not really much of a sample size.

If all positions were equal, one would expect, 'on average' that each team would devote roughly 20% of it's cap to each position, with the bulk of THAT number going to the starter at that position.   That means that on average one should expect the starter at each position to have a little less than 20%, except on the occasional team .... say 1 in 5 ... where the particular position might be the slot of their best player.  Again, if all things were equal, that would be a different position on each team.   So out of 10 teams, the PG would be expected to be the top player on 2 of them.

Things aren't equal, of course, because size is a biological rarity, so there is a premium that has to be paid for the positions of size.    So that puts a little downward pressure on the 'small' position salary.

All told, I don't think Kevin's numbers are all that new or compelling.   If we are really talking about 10-12 distinct championship teams across all those titles, then yeah, I'd expect the PG to be the top paid guy on just 1 or 2 of them.  If you sampled across some other span of 25 years it might be 2 or 3.
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Re: Do most people think that the Celtics Won't Pay up for Isaiah Thomas?
« Reply #46 on: September 23, 2016, 08:51:12 PM »

Offline Big333223

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I don't think the market will force his price up to $25M range (although I am usually wrong and salaries always end up higher than I think).  I think we can get him on a more reasonable deal and I would be fine with that.  If he walks for a big deal I am OK with that.

This is what I am thinking. IT is fresh off of a solid all-star season where he was still ranked #45 in the NBA. As he ages, I don't see that number rising. We were able to obtain a guy going for 20+ppg and 6+apg on decent efficiency and an amazing contract for essentially an RJ Hunter level pick.

I think he will always be one of those guys (because of his height) that teams will never want to give up too much for. If Danny plays his cards right and lets IT test the market first, I will be surprised if we need to pay him more than $15M/yr. It's not Danny's fault that IT signed a crappy contract. In this case it will be all about timing (of his first contract and of his next when he will just about be 30).

There are plenty of guys that made serious money this offseason that are not as good as IT. Guys like Chandler Parsons, Ryan Anderson, Joakim Noah, and Luol Deng just landed deals in the $20m range and Mike Conley got 5 yrs at $153m. I don't think it's a stretch if IT secures a 3-4 yr deal at $25m per.

I guess I shouldn't have used the word 'surprise' as your scenario isn't a stretch at all. I just think that there are going to be a lot of gun-shy gms around the league when it comes to paying an aging IT. His value has always been low, even right now, I am just not sure there are going to be a lot of Thomas suitors when it comes time to be a FA. And, frankly, I don't really think it's fair.
I agree with this. All of the reasons people on this board would be reluctant to sign IT are the same issues other GM's are going to have and they're not as enamored with his offense as we probably are. He's on a ludicrously inexpensive deal right now because GM's were afraid of his height and defense a few years ago. That'll be exacerbated by his age a year from now. There's a good chance the C's get IT back on another below-market contract (and he could still double his money).
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Re: Do most people think that the Celtics Won't Pay up for Isaiah Thomas?
« Reply #47 on: September 23, 2016, 09:28:04 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Defensive liability

Re: Do most people think that the Celtics Won't Pay up for Isaiah Thomas?
« Reply #48 on: September 23, 2016, 11:00:05 PM »

Offline CelticPride2016

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Defensive liability
Maybe Isaiah is a liability on defense, but that's why you need a third guard which we have.

I think Isaiah is almost average on defense. He is pesky.

He needs to be transcendent on offense because of his height on defense. That is obvious. He can't make so many stupid turnovers. He has to hit his jump shots better if he wants the big money.

He may deserve it. There's no need to root against him. It will play out. It could turn out he is a Boston Sports Mount Rushmore addition. One never knows.

Isaiah is insanely good on offense. He just has to tighten it a bit. We have big guys to protect the rim. Isaiah can force guys to take jumpers. He can make steals and get sneaky rebounds. Give the kid a chance.

Re: Do most people think that the Celtics Won't Pay up for Isaiah Thomas?
« Reply #49 on: September 25, 2016, 08:00:33 PM »

Offline tenn_smoothie

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No way I trade Thomas. he loves being a Celtic and will remain a very good player for years. I love the 6th man idea later in his career, a legendary role for the Celtics.

Sorry to say, he is not a $20 mil player - if he chooses to force his hand, the Celtics should do all they can to keep him and treat him with a lot more respect than they did Ray Allen.
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Re: Do most people think that the Celtics Won't Pay up for Isaiah Thomas?
« Reply #50 on: September 25, 2016, 08:37:00 PM »

Offline Big333223

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I know the landscape can change quick, but what team is going to pay Isaiah more than $20 million in a year?
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Re: Do most people think that the Celtics Won't Pay up for Isaiah Thomas?
« Reply #51 on: September 26, 2016, 09:03:06 AM »

Offline Moranis

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"The league’s last 25 champions had starting point guards with an average salary accounting for only 11.3 percent of that year’s cap. That’s the equivalent of $10.6 million (or, nearly, Austin Rivers’s 2016–17 salary) under this season’s enormous $94.1 million salary cap. Only two of the championship point guards have accounted for slightly over "20 percent of a cap (Tony Parker in 2014 and Irving in 2016), and only Parker was the highest-paid player on his team. Instead of splurging on star free-agent point guards, general managers of Finals winners have typically leaned on young 1s (Rajon Rondo, B.J. Armstrong, early-’00s Parker) or PGs on inexpensive deals (Derek Fisher, Mario Chalmers, Avery Johnson), paying the spared funds to stars at different positions and key role players."

Kevin O'Connor wrote this recently in Ringer as he discusses the advantages of grabbing a rookie point guard in 2017 draft. It seems that paying IT a large chunk of salary cap, considering his age is not that logical - if history holds.

Full article: https://theringer.com/2017-nba-draft-point-guards-markelle-fultz-dennis-smith-jr-ef66c2bf3653#.ey58ayic0

Hmm... "the last 25 champions" amounts to ... how many distinct _teams_?  Probably closer to a little less than half that number?    So that's not really much of a sample size.

If all positions were equal, one would expect, 'on average' that each team would devote roughly 20% of it's cap to each position, with the bulk of THAT number going to the starter at that position.   That means that on average one should expect the starter at each position to have a little less than 20%, except on the occasional team .... say 1 in 5 ... where the particular position might be the slot of their best player.  Again, if all things were equal, that would be a different position on each team.   So out of 10 teams, the PG would be expected to be the top player on 2 of them.

Things aren't equal, of course, because size is a biological rarity, so there is a premium that has to be paid for the positions of size.    So that puts a little downward pressure on the 'small' position salary.

All told, I don't think Kevin's numbers are all that new or compelling.   If we are really talking about 10-12 distinct championship teams across all those titles, then yeah, I'd expect the PG to be the top paid guy on just 1 or 2 of them.  If you sampled across some other span of 25 years it might be 2 or 3.
I have put on here numerous times the Champions and the Runner-ups and whether their PG was an all star.  Since the Isiah/Magic teams and until Curry/Irving the starting PG on either title team was an all star in the same season something like 6 times (Payton, Stockton, Kidd x2, Parker x2).  Only Payton and Kidd were their teams best player and they did not win the title. I'm also going off memory so it is possible I'm forgetting someone. 

Now it is possible that the last two NBA Finals which feature 3 all star appearances from Curry and Irving and in which Curry is the 2 time MVP and his teams best player, is the start of a new trend or it could just be a blip on the radar.
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Re: Do most people think that the Celtics Won't Pay up for Isaiah Thomas?
« Reply #52 on: September 26, 2016, 09:30:52 AM »

Offline The One

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I think that most people think that the Celtics won't pay up for Isaiah Thomas.


I would not max him out...PGs seem to be easier to acquire.

Re: Do most people think that the Celtics Won't Pay up for Isaiah Thomas?
« Reply #53 on: September 27, 2016, 12:45:42 AM »

Offline CelticPride2016

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I think people tend to form opinions and then become stubborn. Olynyk will always play soft. Marcus Smart will never figure out shooting. I'd rather be wishy-washy and let the play on the court dictate year to year commentary.

Isaiah has the potential to become an all-time great NBA player. He is fast and pesky on defense. Of course you might run into a team that is destroying him. I don't recall that happening too often.

Isaiah Thomas is a wizard on offense. Because of his height, though, you might want a very good backup plan. Currently we have that. We will see how it plays out.

Now if someone has already decided that Isaiah has a low ceiling for legacy based on his defense, then nothing anyone says will change that opinion.

I just want to see wins and titles. LeBron and Durant are getting up there for age. Isaiah could give us six straight years of all-star point guard. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

If he's not worth the money, then maybe Danny drafts a pg like it seemed he did with Smart when Rondo's contract was running out. Then we'll know.

But a lot can happen between then and now, so I don't see the point of making a definitive critique of Isaiah Thomas. He was highly rated in Sports Illustrated.