Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up

[Csfan1984]

Couple people mentioned we should throw money at him in the summer instead. 

#1 - I'm not convinced philly lets an asset walk.   That's a reach. He's arguably their most valuable player and they are struggling to get to the salary floor.  My guess is they match any offer and work out a trade afterwards even if it's pennies on the dollar.  It would be moronic to let him walk for nothing.  Embiid is expected to be on a minutes restriction but even if he were to flourish in 40mpg ... And even if Simmons played PF (most expect him to start at SF), and even if Noel racked up a season of DNP's, he's shown enough defensively that teams are still going to have interest in trading for him two seasons from now.

#2 -  keep in mind that if you trade for Noel now, you can be the team to give him his qualifying offer next summer - which means you'd have a period of time where'd you still have cap flexibility to go after someone like Gordon Hayward.   Whereas, if you plan on just offering him 10+ million this summer, targeting another max salary no longer becomes possible because you would be eating too much salary in your Noel overpay.    So decide if you'd rather have Smart + Noel (which probably isn't happening anyways because philly will likely match any offer) or Potential Max Contact (Hayward?  Blake?  Durant?) + Noel.

Simmons should not play SF. You can can get a fair trade now for Noel but after you sign him he is gonna be a tough one if too over paid so they have to be cautious and explore 80 cents now. And on the max deal yes you kind of do need to trade for him now if you want to fit a max guy in but who is to say that means you need to part with Smart. You can do a deal around KO and Rozier IMO. Those two guys next to Simmons makes sense. Also you can still get Smart + player x instead of Noel and player x. Remember KD asked about resigning Smart. Guys around the league want to play with him. Smart is part of the Celtics draw despite his current shooting woes he gets after it and is a team guy.

[droopdog7]

Both project to be elite defensively and suck offensively. Can't wait to read the rebuttals about Smart's promise on that end.

So what's more valuable, a defensive specialist that's 6'4", or one that's 6'11"?  Doesn't seem to be equal value to me at all, KGLL.

Clearly I'm a bit late to the thread but the answer is in the very first reply.

And no, I don't think Smart will ever be a good offensive player.  Not horrible is probably Smart's ceiling.  In Noel you have a guy with decent efficiency on that end who clearly has limitations.  Smart has limitations and horrible efficiency who probably needs to shoot less.  With him, his efficiency is more important than totals, which can always be raised with volume.

 It would be an easy decision for me.  All else equal, big over small every time.

[tankcity!]

At this point I'd do it.  I think Rozier is going to be better than Smart anyway so we get an elite rim protector who can cover guards. Does anyone have Noel's defensive metrics. I'd like to have some factual information to back the claim that Noel is a great defender. I'm a little worried he doesn't have good defensive awareness and will have trouble switching on pick and rolls.

[tankcity!]

Smart is easily my favorite player. Plus I think hes got the clutch gene and real knack for the big play.  Now you can say these are green tinted glasses but a) hes the only guy on the team who I think really has it and b) it is a bias and one of the many reasons its good I dont run the Celtics.

I think the contract stuff is actually pretty important. With Marcus, we dont pay him for another year. With Noel its gotta be this year. With Marcus we can add a max guy in either of the next two FA periods and still resign everyone. With Noel wed only get 1.

This is true. Smart is very clutch and plays better against better competition. Hard to find those type of players. But I think Rozier does the same thing 

[Moranis]

At this point I'd do it.  I think Rozier is going to be better than Smart anyway so we get an elite rim protector who can cover guards. Does anyone have Noel's defensive metrics. I'd like to have some factual information to back the claim that Noel is a great defender. I'm a little worried he doesn't have good defensive awareness and will have trouble switching on pick and rolls.

They are in any number of threads on the forum.  Noel rates out incredibly well defensively (his actual stats actually show this as well).

[tankcity!]

Noel is ranked 53 last year in Defensive win share. How good can this guy be on defense then? And why did Moranis mention he was an elite defender according to advanced metrics?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html

[tankcity!]

At this point I'd do it.  I think Rozier is going to be better than Smart anyway so we get an elite rim protector who can cover guards. Does anyone have Noel's defensive metrics. I'd like to have some factual information to back the claim that Noel is a great defender. I'm a little worried he doesn't have good defensive awareness and will have trouble switching on pick and rolls.

They are in any number of threads on the forum.  Noel rates out incredibly well defensively (his actual stats actually show this as well).

Not according to this. Look at defensive win shares

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html

[tankcity!]

His blocks % sucks too. This is hilarious. He also is 81st in true rebounding. Man i love the sixers fans on this thread.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html

[MBunge]

Noel is a good defender who has elite potential.  He is not elite right now.  He might never be.

Mike

[LarBrd33]

Couple people mentioned we should throw money at him in the summer instead. 

#1 - I'm not convinced philly lets an asset walk.   That's a reach. He's arguably their most valuable player and they are struggling to get to the salary floor.  My guess is they match any offer and work out a trade afterwards even if it's pennies on the dollar.  It would be moronic to let him walk for nothing.  Embiid is expected to be on a minutes restriction but even if he were to flourish in 40mpg ... And even if Simmons played PF (most expect him to start at SF), and even if Noel racked up a season of DNP's, he's shown enough defensively that teams are still going to have interest in trading for him two seasons from now.

#2 -  keep in mind that if you trade for Noel now, you can be the team to give him his qualifying offer next summer - which means you'd have a period of time where'd you still have cap flexibility to go after someone like Gordon Hayward.   Whereas, if you plan on just offering him 10+ million this summer, targeting another max salary no longer becomes possible because you would be eating too much salary in your Noel overpay.    So decide if you'd rather have Smart + Noel (which probably isn't happening anyways because philly will likely match any offer) or Potential Max Contact (Hayward?  Blake?  Durant?) + Noel.

Simmons should not play SF. You can can get a fair trade now for Noel but after you sign him he is gonna be a tough one if too over paid so they have to be cautious and explore 80 cents now. And on the max deal yes you kind of do need to trade for him now if you want to fit a max guy in but who is to say that means you need to part with Smart. You can do a deal around KO and Rozier IMO. Those two guys next to Simmons makes sense. Also you can still get Smart + player x instead of Noel and player x. Remember KD asked about resigning Smart. Guys around the league want to play with him. Smart is part of the Celtics draw despite his current shooting woes he gets after it and is a team guy.

I can't find any consensus opinion from 76ers writers on what their lineup will be.  It's all over the board.  Some say he'll be starting PG.  Some say SF.  Some say PF.  Most agree Embiid will be on a minutes restriction out of the gate getting at most 20mpg.  Most agree Saric off the bench with 15-20 minutes.   Most agree Okafor will be their leading scorer.  Philly.com ran a piece on it the other day and predicted Okafor would average about 19ppg:

Jahlil Okafor. While there will be a plethora of big men coming in and out of the lineup, which now will include Joel Embiid, Okafor is still the most natural and skilled scorer on the whole roster. Add to that, Embiid’s minutes will be limited, probably for the first couple months of the season or so. Despite many offseason moves, this is still a team devoid of scoring threats. The additions of passers Ben Simmons and Dario Saric may help Okafor more than anyone. Look for him to average about 19 a game.

Nobody really knows.  It's going to be really interesting to see how their rotation looks early on.  They should have no trouble playing Okafor and Noel minutes if Embiid and Saric have limited minutes early on - especially if Simmons plays PG or SF.  People keep comparing Simmons to LeBron and LeBron has pretty much always played SF.

[BitterJim]

At this point I'd do it.  I think Rozier is going to be better than Smart anyway so we get an elite rim protector who can cover guards. Does anyone have Noel's defensive metrics. I'd like to have some factual information to back the claim that Noel is a great defender. I'm a little worried he doesn't have good defensive awareness and will have trouble switching on pick and rolls.

Wait, do you want defensive metrics or factual information? Those are totally different things.  I have yet to see a defensive stat that actually matches the eye test for most players

[dannyboy35]

I would rather part with smart than Olynyk if money/ contracts were not an issue.

[dannyboy35]

I know I may be the only person on the board that would keep kelly over smart but I still think Kelly just needs consistent minutes and I see a brighter future for Rozier than Smart.

[tarheelsxxiii]

Both project to be elite defensively and suck offensively. Can't wait to read the rebuttals about Smart's promise on that end.

So what's more valuable, a defensive specialist that's 6'4", or one that's 6'11"?  Doesn't seem to be equal value to me at all, KGLL.

Clearly I'm a bit late to the thread but the answer is in the very first reply.

And no, I don't think Smart will ever be a good offensive player.  Not horrible is probably Smart's ceiling.  In Noel you have a guy with decent efficiency on that end who clearly has limitations.  Smart has limitations and horrible efficiency who probably needs to shoot less.  With him, his efficiency is more important than totals, which can always be raised with volume.

 It would be an easy decision for me.  All else equal, big over small every time.

Thank you, sir. TP

[Moranis]

Noel is ranked 53 last year in Defensive win share. How good can this guy be on defense then? And why did Moranis mention he was an elite defender according to advanced metrics?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html

Defensive Win Shares are based on a teams total wins.  When you play on a 10 win team, there aren't many opportunities for acquiring win shares.