Poll

Would you trade Smart for Noel straight up

Straight up for real. Yes.
30 (20.8%)
Straight up for real. No.
101 (70.1%)
I love Leprechaun's
13 (9%)

Total Members Voted: 144

Author Topic: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up  (Read 23935 times)

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Re: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up
« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2016, 03:32:53 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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Keep Smart and sign Noel as a RFA next year. Doubt 76ers match anything above $10 million. Noel isn't in their long term plans.

They'll match anything, they have no reason not to

Re: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up
« Reply #16 on: September 14, 2016, 03:42:35 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

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Keep Smart and sign Noel as a RFA next year. Doubt 76ers match anything above $10 million. Noel isn't in their long term plans.

They'll match anything, they have no reason not to

I disagee. If a player doesn't fit you don't want to invest $ into him just because you can. What if besides the bad fit chemistry or even an injury comes back to bite ya.

Re: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up
« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2016, 06:40:48 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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Keep Smart and sign Noel as a RFA next year. Doubt 76ers match anything above $10 million. Noel isn't in their long term plans.

They'll match anything, they have no reason not to

I disagee. If a player doesn't fit you don't want to invest $ into him just because you can. What if besides the bad fit chemistry or even an injury comes back to bite ya.

I think the fit thing is overblown. They aren't even sure who does and doesn't fit yet. We know Okafor and Noel aren't great together but what about Noel-Saric, Noel-Embiid, Okafor-Simmons etc..

Also Noel isn't a bad player but nor is he a star. He's also a RFA next summer. The trend at the moment seems to be for teams to max their cap space and chase a star while the cap is booming, this is having an effect on the trade market for Noel. Philly aren't becoming contenders overnight so they can afford to wait, pay Noel and then use his contract later down the line to bring in help. His max salary is $22.1m I think which could bring them back some significant help in future years. In a way it becomes easier to trade him because he will have years of control.

All that is assuming Noel is even the one they decide doesn't fit. It could end up being Okafor that doesn't fit with Embiid or Saric proves to be too similar to Simmons and gets moved for wing help

Re: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up
« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2016, 08:16:28 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I would have been more likely to do this last year but I still do it.  Part of my reasoning is that Noel will like it here after one season and it will give us a better chance to keep him on a fair extension or new contact.

It just makes more sense from a roster standpoint.  We need bigs more than we need guards.

Re: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up
« Reply #19 on: September 14, 2016, 08:20:01 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Big fans of both, and I think they have a pretty similar value right now, which would make a fair trade. That said, I probably wouldn't do it, mostly because Smart is my binkie, though Noel is my non-Celtic binkie.

However, if Smart doesn't show improvement this year offensively as the leader/ball-handler of the second unit, then I'd probably pull the trigger at the deadline. Smart definitely has a much higher two-way potential than Noel, but if he gets the opportunity to succeed this year and still doesn't show much improvement, then he'll probably never be more than a Tony Allen-like high level defensive role player. Noel's potential to anchor a league-leading defense in the middle is probably more valuable to us long term than Smart's perimeter D, which is definitely special but expendable with Rozier, Brown, Bradley, and Crowder.

Best case scenario is for both Smart and Rozier to make a leap this year, and we use Rozier and the Memphis pick as the trade bait for Noel.
why would Philly make that trade at the deadline after it becomes clear Smart didn't make the offensive jump.
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Re: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up
« Reply #20 on: September 14, 2016, 08:23:48 AM »

Offline Moranis

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If you harbour any hope of a big name free agent in either 2017 or 18 then you don't make this deal
it wouldn't affect much in 2017 because you just sign Noel after you sign whatever free agent you land.  It would alter 2018 obviously because Noel would have a much larger contract than Smart's cap hold.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up
« Reply #21 on: September 14, 2016, 09:19:35 AM »

Offline dannyboy35

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Haven't we done this before?
It doesn't go away.  We've been talking about it for two years.

It might surprise some people to hear I'm on the fence about this despite arguing in favor of it for the past couple years.   

The good:   Smart has been historically bad shooting.  Defensive impact from guards pales in comparison to defensive impact from a legit rim protector.  I believe if Noel continues to develop, you can build a top-level defense around him.  He looks like a future DPOY candidate and should improve with better supporting cast.  While Horford is a huge addition, he's still not a rim protector.  Add Noel to the mix and we should be the best defensive team in the league (though that might already be true)... it's not like we'd be losing offensive firepower with Smart gone.  And I'm interested to see what Rozier can do with more minutes (as well as possibly Young or Hunter)... possibly even Gerald Green or Jaylen Brown could slot in as a SG in some lineups. 

The bad:  I've spent too much time on this forum.  I've been brainwashed into believing that Marcus Smart still has untapped potential and may break-out this season.  It really has to happen this year, though.  I haven't lost hope.  Year 3 is a big one for a lot of prospects.  I see this is a make or break year for Smart - really would prefer to hang onto him.   Another small concern is that Noel will be owed money next year and that could eat into our cap - HOWEVER... it's less of a concern than people want to make it out to be.  He's a restricted free agent.  We'd have a pocket of time to still go after a high level free agent after offering Noel his qualifying offer.  I had previously believed that adding Noel would kill our necessary cap space to go after a star next SUmmer - that doesn't appear to be the case.

It's probably a win for Boston.   I still don't see the reason Philly does it.  They are desperate for shooting so they can improve their teams spacing.  Smart offers nothing (so far) on that end.  They'd be gambling on Smart making the offensive leap we all hope he can make.

It would be bitter sweet if this happened.  If forced to decide, I'm pulling the trigger.  I love Marcus, though and really want to see him succeed in Boston.    A player like Noel will always be important in this league despite offensive limitations.  Guards need to be able to score in this league though.
If anyone else is on the fence, I'd ask them to consider the following...

Let's pretend that Gordan Hayward signing in Boston next Summer is a lock.   How does that change your opinion of our depth chart going forward?  Hayward has played a bunch of shooting guard throughout his career... would you see him starting next to Thomas and Crowder?  Does that move Bradley to the bench?  Where does Smart factor into the lineup at that point?  How about Rozier, Hunter, Young?...  Would Noel potentially have more minutes available than Smart would in a post-Hayward lineup?

Our perimeter d goes from very good to below average when we play Thomas , Hayward, Crowder . Is it a no brainier to bring in Hayward still? Bradley is just so awesome on the ball.

Re: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up
« Reply #22 on: September 14, 2016, 09:20:43 AM »

Offline dannyboy35

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I would do the Noel trade but wary of maxing out Hayward. Not a lot out there though.

Re: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up
« Reply #23 on: September 14, 2016, 09:26:09 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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If you harbour any hope of a big name free agent in either 2017 or 18 then you don't make this deal
it wouldn't affect much in 2017 because you just sign Noel after you sign whatever free agent you land.  It would alter 2018 obviously because Noel would have a much larger contract than Smart's cap hold.

Not quite sure that is true.

If we pickup the team options for Rozier and Hunter and then extend QOs to Noel and KO then our salary entering FA will be $77,144,125 I believe. The QOs for Noel and KO have a higher cap hold than their actual values, for instance Noel has a QO of $5,848,910 but the cap hold is $10,961,255. The CBA FAQ has more info on why this is.

With a projected salary cap of $102m that leaves us with $24,855,875 of cap room. The max salaries for next summer are:
0-6 years: $22.1m
7-9 years:$26.5m
10+ years: $31m

So to sign someone like Griffin or Hayward we would need to move a contract to create the cap space. Rozier would be the smallest contract that would make enough space, letting go of Hunter wouldn't be enough. We'd also have to waive the rights to Jackson, Zeller and Mickey as well as our FAs.

It's not the biggest concern in the world because we could move a player for a pick if we had to but it's something to think about

Edit: I forgot about the cap holds for Yab and Zizic + our pick this year so actually there's a lot more cap space we'd have to clear. Probably Bradley and Rozier kind of salary. Much less feasible now
« Last Edit: September 14, 2016, 10:16:42 AM by TheSundanceKid »

Re: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up
« Reply #24 on: September 14, 2016, 10:10:06 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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No

Marcus > Noel

Re: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up
« Reply #25 on: September 14, 2016, 10:31:55 AM »

Offline otherdave

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If you harbour any hope of a big name free agent in either 2017 or 18 then you don't make this deal
it wouldn't affect much in 2017 because you just sign Noel after you sign whatever free agent you land.  It would alter 2018 obviously because Noel would have a much larger contract than Smart's cap hold.



Not quite sure that is true.

If we pickup the team options for Rozier and Hunter and then extend QOs to Noel and KO then our salary entering FA will be $77,144,125 I believe. The QOs for Noel and KO have a higher cap hold than their actual values, for instance Noel has a QO of $5,848,910 but the cap hold is $10,961,255. The CBA FAQ has more info on why this is.

With a projected salary cap of $102m that leaves us with $24,855,875 of cap room. The max salaries for next summer are:
0-6 years: $22.1m
7-9 years:$26.5m
10+ years: $31m

So to sign someone like Griffin or Hayward we would need to move a contract to create the cap space. Rozier would be the smallest contract that would make enough space, letting go of Hunter wouldn't be enough. We'd also have to waive the rights to Jackson, Zeller and Mickey as well as our FAs.

It's not the biggest concern in the world because we could move a player for a pick if we had to but it's something to think about

Edit: I forgot about the cap holds for Yab and Zizic + our pick this year so actually there's a lot more cap space we'd have to clear. Probably Bradley and Rozier kind of salary. Much less feasible now


TP Sundance.  Most fans here just assume that there is enough cap room just lying around to sign a max 7 to 9 year player next summer, and well there just isn't.  Of course more cap space can be created as you point out.  A lot of fans are not getting the fact that after you clear out some of the end of the bench players, A CORE PLAYER will also have to moved to clear the necessary space to sign a Hayward or whomever.  Posters are quick to say "we can just sign Gordon next summer" without giving consideration to the real cost of a signing a max.

Sundance - keep reminding us!

Re: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up
« Reply #26 on: September 14, 2016, 10:41:14 AM »

Offline otherdave

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With a projected salary cap of $102m that leaves us with $24,855,875 of cap room. The max salaries for next summer are:
0-6 years: $22.1m
7-9 years:$26.5m
10+ years: $31m



I am willing to be wrong, but I think these are this summer's max salaries.  These numbers would all go up a 1 mil or 2 for next summer - necessitating clearing out more salary to create more cap space.

Either way, your overall point is well made.

Re: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up
« Reply #27 on: September 14, 2016, 10:52:34 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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If you harbour any hope of a big name free agent in either 2017 or 18 then you don't make this deal
it wouldn't affect much in 2017 because you just sign Noel after you sign whatever free agent you land.  It would alter 2018 obviously because Noel would have a much larger contract than Smart's cap hold.



Not quite sure that is true.

If we pickup the team options for Rozier and Hunter and then extend QOs to Noel and KO then our salary entering FA will be $77,144,125 I believe. The QOs for Noel and KO have a higher cap hold than their actual values, for instance Noel has a QO of $5,848,910 but the cap hold is $10,961,255. The CBA FAQ has more info on why this is.

With a projected salary cap of $102m that leaves us with $24,855,875 of cap room. The max salaries for next summer are:
0-6 years: $22.1m
7-9 years:$26.5m
10+ years: $31m

So to sign someone like Griffin or Hayward we would need to move a contract to create the cap space. Rozier would be the smallest contract that would make enough space, letting go of Hunter wouldn't be enough. We'd also have to waive the rights to Jackson, Zeller and Mickey as well as our FAs.

It's not the biggest concern in the world because we could move a player for a pick if we had to but it's something to think about

Edit: I forgot about the cap holds for Yab and Zizic + our pick this year so actually there's a lot more cap space we'd have to clear. Probably Bradley and Rozier kind of salary. Much less feasible now


TP Sundance.  Most fans here just assume that there is enough cap room just lying around to sign a max 7 to 9 year player next summer, and well there just isn't.  Of course more cap space can be created as you point out.  A lot of fans are not getting the fact that after you clear out some of the end of the bench players, A CORE PLAYER will also have to moved to clear the necessary space to sign a Hayward or whomever.  Posters are quick to say "we can just sign Gordon next summer" without giving consideration to the real cost of a signing a max.

Sundance - keep reminding us!

The bit that catches a lot out is the cap hold for RFAs and also in our case the first round picks who aren't on the roster yet. The Nets pick this year (should we keep it) will presumably be a similar or higher salary to Brown, that's close to $5m straight off the bat.

As for Hayward, if we didn't do the proposed trade we'd have $23,553,710 in cap space (this time I've included Yab and Zizic and estimated $5m for the Nets pick) so we'd still be short of the necessary space to sign him.

I definitely think FA is something we are looking at but the way the contracts on our roster are structured it seems like a trade is our first choice. David Lee and Amir and JJ last year, Amir, JJ, Zeller this year. Looking toward 2018 as well we are going to have a hard time paying everyone so I expect something to change.

I have a feeling that KO will be gone by the trade deadline. Perhaps something like KO and Rozier for Okafor. That frees up the cap room this summer to sign Hayward if we choose or we'd have the ability to extend IT and possibly Bradley and reduce their future cap hits, something saltlover has brought up a few times.

Re: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up
« Reply #28 on: September 14, 2016, 10:55:29 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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With a projected salary cap of $102m that leaves us with $24,855,875 of cap room. The max salaries for next summer are:
0-6 years: $22.1m
7-9 years:$26.5m
10+ years: $31m



I am willing to be wrong, but I think these are this summer's max salaries.  These numbers would all go up a 1 mil or 2 for next summer - necessitating clearing out more salary to create more cap space.

Either way, your overall point is well made.

You are correct, I misquoted the article :/

They are actually:
0-6 years: $24m
7-9 years:$28.8m
10+ years: $33.5m

So yeah, even harder and certainly not worth it when considering adding Noel

Re: Poll: Marcus for Nerlens straight up
« Reply #29 on: September 14, 2016, 11:09:34 AM »

Offline Moranis

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If you harbour any hope of a big name free agent in either 2017 or 18 then you don't make this deal
it wouldn't affect much in 2017 because you just sign Noel after you sign whatever free agent you land.  It would alter 2018 obviously because Noel would have a much larger contract than Smart's cap hold.

Not quite sure that is true.

If we pickup the team options for Rozier and Hunter and then extend QOs to Noel and KO then our salary entering FA will be $77,144,125 I believe. The QOs for Noel and KO have a higher cap hold than their actual values, for instance Noel has a QO of $5,848,910 but the cap hold is $10,961,255. The CBA FAQ has more info on why this is.

With a projected salary cap of $102m that leaves us with $24,855,875 of cap room. The max salaries for next summer are:
0-6 years: $22.1m
7-9 years:$26.5m
10+ years: $31m

So to sign someone like Griffin or Hayward we would need to move a contract to create the cap space. Rozier would be the smallest contract that would make enough space, letting go of Hunter wouldn't be enough. We'd also have to waive the rights to Jackson, Zeller and Mickey as well as our FAs.

It's not the biggest concern in the world because we could move a player for a pick if we had to but it's something to think about

Edit: I forgot about the cap holds for Yab and Zizic + our pick this year so actually there's a lot more cap space we'd have to clear. Probably Bradley and Rozier kind of salary. Much less feasible now
depends on the average salary, Noel's cap hold might only be 8.6 million (200% as opposed to 250%).  Either way his hold is worth 4.3 to 6.5 more than Smart, so that is the cost of having Noel vs. Smart. 

So Noel and KO would at most be 21.5 of salary.  27.7 from Horford, 26.9 from Bradley, Crowder, Thomas, and Brown.  2 from Rozier and about 3 from Zizic and Yab.  Plus let's call it 5 million from the BKN pick. 

So without Noel and KO that is about 64.6.  Now put in KO and Smart and Boston doesn't have enough for a max contract (less than 7 years is probably looking at 24 million to start) and that is with giving up the rights to Johnson, Jerekbo, Zeller, Mickey, Jackson, and Hunter, something I'm not sure Boston would really want to do. 

So when I say having Noel vs. Smart won't change much, it is because Boston doesn't have room for a max free agent anyway unless it gives up valuable players like KO, Smart, etc.

I personally believe going from Smart to Noel is worth having 4-6.5 less cap room next summer when Boston doesn't have room for a max contract to begin with.
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