Anyone upset about the wasted assets?

[Moranis]

Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.

By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike

It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.  If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6).  Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them. 

Take Giddens, the 30th pick.  31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute.  Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games. 

How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick.  The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler.  Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.

Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo.  Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.

You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades.  In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades.  He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb.  Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets.  It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit.  You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins.  You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round.  But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking.

again, context is necessary. first, where in the first round has ainge to drafting and how many "homeruns" come from that range? is ainge's drafting of players from that range inline with league averages?

further, draft choices also need to be evaluated based upon the analyses THEN, not using 20/20 hindsight. what were the realistic alternatives THEN?

third, compared to other GMs drafting in basically the same range, how does ainge compare nba wide?

to consider late first rounders and second rounders wasted picks is really straining things. the success rate for late first rounders is somewhere around 25 to 30 percent depending upon the article and standards you invoke.

over his career, has ainge been able to acquire nba starters from drafting in the 20s? and if so, at what rate? ainge is not bad at drafting and it would be fair to say he is good at it given the location in the first round.

My issue isn't that he hasn't hit homeruns with late 1st round picks, it is that he is striking out looking in 3 pitches way more than the league average.  Look at Boston's drafts from from 2008 on which I posted earlier.  That is 9 drafts of basically way below average results.

TP to you for a realistic analysis of Ainge's GM game.

I completely agree. Ainge is an astute trader, one of the best active in the game - when he chooses to utilize that skill, which in my view is nowhere near often enough.

His ability to evaluate college players, on the other hand, is mediocre at best, and his draft record is extremely average - again at best.

Of course, that doesn't entirely fit the near-spiritual worship of Ainge that his fanboys demand, facts be hanged.

Outstanding post.

so, if you regard him as average, by definition he's in the middle of the pack amongst his fellow GMs.  Who is it that you consider to be better than Danny, especially when taking into account the late draft position that he's had?

Honest question.  I know I give you a lot of grief for just complaining without any substance to back it up but this is a genuine question.  Who is it that regularly drafts mid-to-late first round and has a better track record? 

"Fanboys" is a derogatory term that doesn't fit.  Danny has done a pretty decent job with picks overall, particularly in comparison to his peers that late in the draft. 

Early in his tenure, his drafting was praised and his trades were panned.  in the past few years, the opposite could be said.

Here is the Spurs (I'm not sure if some of those were draft day trades and thus not actually Spurs picks - and remember Leonard was 15 who they traded Hill for to draft on draft night)  http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/draft.html

Here is the Thunder (obviously take the high lottery picks out of this analysis, again may be a draft day trade or two in there, i.e. I don't think they drafted Bledsoe) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/OKC/draft.html

Here is the Hawks (again didn't confirm draft day trades) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/draft.html

Here is the Bulls (again didn't look at draft day trades) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/draft.html

There aren't many other teams that have been consistently drafting at the back of the 1st round that kept enough picks to get a good sample (i.e. the Lakers, Heat, Mavs, Clippers, etc. traded a bunch of picks).  That is where the league average has to come into play. 

just to be clear, i was asking this from Bo since he's the one I give grief to.  however, thanks for your examples.  so you've provided just 4 examples and only really the Spurs could be pointed to as a superior record in the draft.  that's hardly putting Danny in the middle of his peers or backing up a claim he's average.

You aren't reading those correctly if you don't think all 4 of those teams have drafted better than Boston recently.  And there aren't more teams because to draft at the end of the first round you have to be good long enough and actually keep your picks enough to have a large enough sample size for it too matter. 

But the league average says you should be better than 4 of 7 of actually drafting players that stick in the league for at least the length of the first contract.

 You really are taking this conversation off track by trying to focus on whether or not giddens or jjj finished their contract.  I would have liked to have seen a few more hits out of Ainge in the last 7 year period, but two end of the first round guys that the Celtics cut bait with a little quicker than most teams normally would due to having a deep championship contending roster and having an older injury prone team really is not the issue.

I didn't start this thread.  It is a thread about the wasted assets.  Giddens, JJJ, Melo, Young are all wasted assets.  Boston got almost nothing from them.  That is 4 first round picks in 7 drafts (not counting the last two drafts as those are too recent).

I think the issue is you are latching onto the idea of "still in the league" at the end of the 3 year period. Here is the list of the 30th pick in the NBA draft. Going back the last 25 years

Butter is an all star
Ezeli is a rotation player
David Lee is a solid starter and briefly a star
Mario Jaric was a backup guard with an ok career

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/30th-overall/300509/

I'm not wasting my time confirming this is true (cause they are all garbage) but I don't believe any of the other players going back to 2000 were in the league after their initial contract ran out. I follow the NBA pretty closely and some of those names are not familiar to me at all. Out of 16 players drafted in Gidden's spot it appears 12 of them will make absolutely no impact in the NBA so he kind of did exactly what was expected of him.....It sucks we didn't hit a homerun like butler with his slot, but complaining about him makes us look like we have ridiculous expectations/ no knowledge of the value of a number 30 pick.

list isn't accurate.  For example, in 2001 the 30th pick (the 2nd pick in the 2nd round) was Gilbert Arenas.  The last pick in the 1st round that year (28) was Tony Parker.  Hassell was the 29th pick.  The list does the same thing in 2002.  2003 Lampe was the 30th pick but he was a 2nd rounder.  The last pick in the 1st round was Josh Howard.  2004 David Harrison was the last pick in the 1st round but was 29.  Anderson Varejao was the 30th pick (i.e. the 1st pick in the 2nd round).  Hard to take a list seriously that is littered with errors and inconsistency.

But again, it isn't just 1 pick it is 4 wasted first rounders in a 7 draft cycle.  That is a lot of wasted assets.

[BitterJim]

Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.

By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike

It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.  If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6).  Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them. 

Take Giddens, the 30th pick.  31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute.  Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games. 

How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick.  The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler.  Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.

Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo.  Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.

You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades.  In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades.  He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb.  Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets.  It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit.  You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins.  You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round.  But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking.

again, context is necessary. first, where in the first round has ainge to drafting and how many "homeruns" come from that range? is ainge's drafting of players from that range inline with league averages?

further, draft choices also need to be evaluated based upon the analyses THEN, not using 20/20 hindsight. what were the realistic alternatives THEN?

third, compared to other GMs drafting in basically the same range, how does ainge compare nba wide?

to consider late first rounders and second rounders wasted picks is really straining things. the success rate for late first rounders is somewhere around 25 to 30 percent depending upon the article and standards you invoke.

over his career, has ainge been able to acquire nba starters from drafting in the 20s? and if so, at what rate? ainge is not bad at drafting and it would be fair to say he is good at it given the location in the first round.

My issue isn't that he hasn't hit homeruns with late 1st round picks, it is that he is striking out looking in 3 pitches way more than the league average.  Look at Boston's drafts from from 2008 on which I posted earlier.  That is 9 drafts of basically way below average results.

TP to you for a realistic analysis of Ainge's GM game.

I completely agree. Ainge is an astute trader, one of the best active in the game - when he chooses to utilize that skill, which in my view is nowhere near often enough.

His ability to evaluate college players, on the other hand, is mediocre at best, and his draft record is extremely average - again at best.

Of course, that doesn't entirely fit the near-spiritual worship of Ainge that his fanboys demand, facts be hanged.

Outstanding post.

so, if you regard him as average, by definition he's in the middle of the pack amongst his fellow GMs.  Who is it that you consider to be better than Danny, especially when taking into account the late draft position that he's had?

Honest question.  I know I give you a lot of grief for just complaining without any substance to back it up but this is a genuine question.  Who is it that regularly drafts mid-to-late first round and has a better track record? 

"Fanboys" is a derogatory term that doesn't fit.  Danny has done a pretty decent job with picks overall, particularly in comparison to his peers that late in the draft. 

Early in his tenure, his drafting was praised and his trades were panned.  in the past few years, the opposite could be said.

Here is the Spurs (I'm not sure if some of those were draft day trades and thus not actually Spurs picks - and remember Leonard was 15 who they traded Hill for to draft on draft night)  http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/draft.html

Here is the Thunder (obviously take the high lottery picks out of this analysis, again may be a draft day trade or two in there, i.e. I don't think they drafted Bledsoe) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/OKC/draft.html

Here is the Hawks (again didn't confirm draft day trades) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/draft.html

Here is the Bulls (again didn't look at draft day trades) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/draft.html

There aren't many other teams that have been consistently drafting at the back of the 1st round that kept enough picks to get a good sample (i.e. the Lakers, Heat, Mavs, Clippers, etc. traded a bunch of picks).  That is where the league average has to come into play. 

just to be clear, i was asking this from Bo since he's the one I give grief to.  however, thanks for your examples.  so you've provided just 4 examples and only really the Spurs could be pointed to as a superior record in the draft.  that's hardly putting Danny in the middle of his peers or backing up a claim he's average.

You aren't reading those correctly if you don't think all 4 of those teams have drafted better than Boston recently.  And there aren't more teams because to draft at the end of the first round you have to be good long enough and actually keep your picks enough to have a large enough sample size for it too matter. 

But the league average says you should be better than 4 of 7 of actually drafting players that stick in the league for at least the length of the first contract.

Another TP - for facts.

Best be careful, though. The name calling will begin shortly for you.

It tells me everything I need to know about those folks that they can't even admit he's a brilliant trader. If you don't worship the Great Savant, you incur their ire, and their unremitting hyperbole. I still fully expect the laughs that a "Jaylen Brown cured cancer" thread will provide.

While it amuses me greatly to watch the Ainge Alibi Coalition get all lathered up, this is a tired discussion. They cannot defend his draft record with facts, only with excuses, and that's where this discussion is always going to land.

Time to move on.

There is a palpable lack of self-awareness in this post

[BitterJim]

Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.

By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike

It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.  If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6).  Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them. 

Take Giddens, the 30th pick.  31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute.  Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games. 

How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick.  The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler.  Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.

Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo.  Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.

You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades.  In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades.  He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb.  Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets.  It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit.  You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins.  You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round.  But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking.

again, context is necessary. first, where in the first round has ainge to drafting and how many "homeruns" come from that range? is ainge's drafting of players from that range inline with league averages?

further, draft choices also need to be evaluated based upon the analyses THEN, not using 20/20 hindsight. what were the realistic alternatives THEN?

third, compared to other GMs drafting in basically the same range, how does ainge compare nba wide?

to consider late first rounders and second rounders wasted picks is really straining things. the success rate for late first rounders is somewhere around 25 to 30 percent depending upon the article and standards you invoke.

over his career, has ainge been able to acquire nba starters from drafting in the 20s? and if so, at what rate? ainge is not bad at drafting and it would be fair to say he is good at it given the location in the first round.

My issue isn't that he hasn't hit homeruns with late 1st round picks, it is that he is striking out looking in 3 pitches way more than the league average.  Look at Boston's drafts from from 2008 on which I posted earlier.  That is 9 drafts of basically way below average results.

TP to you for a realistic analysis of Ainge's GM game.

I completely agree. Ainge is an astute trader, one of the best active in the game - when he chooses to utilize that skill, which in my view is nowhere near often enough.

His ability to evaluate college players, on the other hand, is mediocre at best, and his draft record is extremely average - again at best.

Of course, that doesn't entirely fit the near-spiritual worship of Ainge that his fanboys demand, facts be hanged.

Outstanding post.

so, if you regard him as average, by definition he's in the middle of the pack amongst his fellow GMs.  Who is it that you consider to be better than Danny, especially when taking into account the late draft position that he's had?

Honest question.  I know I give you a lot of grief for just complaining without any substance to back it up but this is a genuine question.  Who is it that regularly drafts mid-to-late first round and has a better track record? 

"Fanboys" is a derogatory term that doesn't fit.  Danny has done a pretty decent job with picks overall, particularly in comparison to his peers that late in the draft. 

Early in his tenure, his drafting was praised and his trades were panned.  in the past few years, the opposite could be said.

Here is the Spurs (I'm not sure if some of those were draft day trades and thus not actually Spurs picks - and remember Leonard was 15 who they traded Hill for to draft on draft night)  http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/draft.html

Here is the Thunder (obviously take the high lottery picks out of this analysis, again may be a draft day trade or two in there, i.e. I don't think they drafted Bledsoe) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/OKC/draft.html

Here is the Hawks (again didn't confirm draft day trades) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/draft.html

Here is the Bulls (again didn't look at draft day trades) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/draft.html

There aren't many other teams that have been consistently drafting at the back of the 1st round that kept enough picks to get a good sample (i.e. the Lakers, Heat, Mavs, Clippers, etc. traded a bunch of picks).  That is where the league average has to come into play.

Looking at the Hawks (who had a few good-to-great picks, like Teague and Schroeder, and a lot of missed picks) and the Bulls (who had some picks that look good like Portis and some hot messes like taking McBuckets at #11), I don't see how they're demonstrably better than Ainge.  It's hit and miss in the late first for everyone.  In context, Ainge's record hardly fits the description of "extremely average [...] at best" (as CoachBo said).  Average to slightly above average is probably more likely, but I think it's still too early to evaluate guys from the 2014 draft (with obvious exceptions like Royce White), never mind guys from the 2015 and 2016 drafts, and that's where a lot of Danny's picks have been (seriously, he's made 7 first round picks in the past 3 drafts, which is as many as he made in the 7 years prior to that. It'll be the most telling part of his tenure, draft-wise)

I'm not sure I would call McBuckets hot garbage.  May not end up being worth the 11th pick (especially when 16 and 19 were Nurkic and Harris), but doesn't look like he is headed for out of the league either.  Of course, even if McBuckets flames out these are Chicago's non-lottery 1st round picks since 2009 - James Johnson (300+ games), Taj Gibson, Trade 28 (Norris Cole) and 43 (Malcolm Lee) for Nikola Mirotic, Jimmy Butler, Marquis Teague (traded him after a year or so), Tony Snell, and Bobby Portis.  Teague is the only guy not still in the league that could be considered a poor selection though Chicago traded him before he flamed out.  But couple that one bad pick against the two grandslams in Gibson and Butler and the homerun trade of 28 and 43 for Mirotic (even with Cole having a pretty solid career and way outperforming his draft position acquiring Mirotic was the better move), and it is easy to see why Chicago has way out paced Boston in the non-lottery pick department.  Chicago has had two lottery picks in that time period, Doug McDermott who they acquired with the 16th and 19th picks and then this past draft taking Denzel Valentine.  Obviously still too early to call either of those picks unless Chicago cuts them before the season.

It was more the trade that I'm calling hot garbage, I just did a ****ty job of making that obvious

[mctyson]

James Young is only getting cut (possibly) because the Cs have found better players and prospects to replace him on the roster.  That is not even close to a waste of assets, it is actually having to many of them. 

They gave him a shot, thus far it hasn't worked.  That's the NBA.

[celticsclay]

Since sometime the 30th pick fell in the first round and sometimes in the second round lets look at the 29th pick. One ahead of giddens. Of this list over the last 15 years only Joseph, Howard and Hassell would have been nice to have (with a chance for mcollough or goodwin to become rotation players still). Overall, it is pretty clear that Giddens fits right in with the overwelming majority of players that were picked 29th or 30th. Just because some of these guys sat on the bench an extra year in a suit do their teams not having a roster crunch doesn't change the fact that unfortunately gidden is about exactly what you expect from that draft slot. Seeing him counted as a "miss" a half decade later is just a preposterous thing to see here. You think the Warriors fans are actively lamenting Steve Logan right now? Or that Magic fans are discussing Daniel Orton and the missed opportunity?

2015 - Chris Mcollogh
2014- John Huestis (will he make end of contract?)
2013 - Archie Goodwin (could be a rotation player)
2012 - Marquis Teague (out of league after first contract)
2011  - Corey Joseph (rotation player)
2010 - Daniel Orton (out of league, in australia)
2009 - Tony Douglas - a very marginal player in and out of league
2008 - DJ White - Out of league, rarely even in rotations
2007 - Alando tucker, no career out of league after rookie contract
2006 - Mardy Collins - not a significant NBA career
2005 - Wayne Simen - no career gave up basketball
2004 - David Harrison - out of league after rookie contract
2003 - Josh Howard - nba starter quality (though appeared he would be better for a bit)
2002 - steve logan - never appeared in NBA
2001- Trenton Hassell - lengthy career as rotation player

[spikelovetheCelts]

I think Danny is even. Yes there has been some good ones select after KO and Young. JJJ and Melo were very bad. Rondo and Bradley were better than they were drafted. We did get a pick for Melo. Young may still net us a second round pick if he has a good preseason. Everyone knows Danny has more picks than spots they are waiting for the cherries to drop. He did well with getting 2 stashes this year IMO. He is a Top 5 GM. No. 1 in trades, 12 in drafts but 3 in coaches hired. He will lead us to a fruitful stretch. Powell and Moore are two very good second round picks.

[Granath]

Because recently Boston hasn't had any lottery picks until Olynyk, Smart, and Brown.  Olynyk was an average pick (i.e. likely in the same general range, though he probably goes a bit later than 12 in a redraft) and it is too early to tell with Smart or Brown.  Thus, if you are comparing Boston's recent drafts with the league, you have to look at the later picks since that is where the vast majority of Boston's picks have ended up.

There is no question Thabeet was a terrible pick and given how he was taken it is much worse.  Thabeet was one of those reach picks that didn't work out, much like Melo for Boston though far worse because he was the 2nd pick.  I'm not suggesting otherwise, I'm suggesting that 4 complete failures in 7 drafts is a terrible record.  I really can't see how anyone can defend that, especially when the non-failures have been KO, Bradley, and Sullinger i.e. a role player, a solid starter, and a guy no longer on the team because he had weight/work ethic issues.  Look if Ainge was 4 of 7 on terrible picks but had 3 all stars from the other spots (you know like earlier in his drafting career) then it isn't that bad, but you can't be mediocre on 3 of 7 and absolutely terrible in the other 4.  That isn't a way to sustain long term success.  Now maybe Smart takes a leap this year and Brown ends up great, that would certainly help and maybe again you can overlook all the wasted assets and lost value Ainge blew since drafting Rondo in 2006.

Here's the rub. A player selected outside the lottery in the first round has less than 50% chance of becoming even a contributor - never mind a starter - in the NBA. So you absolutely CAN be "mediocre" drafting in the high teens and mid 20s. The league average in those spots isn't any better than Ainge.  I'd also argue that Bradley is far better than mediocre and Sullinger has started 171 games in his career which makes him more than just a bench player.

Once you get past about 16 or so, the chances of a player becoming a solid starter is somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-25%. A star is about 5%.  Role players account for another 30%. Deep bench runs about the same. About 15% are total busts. Those numbers decrease as you get to the late first round to the point that a starter or better in the late 20s is about 15% and a deep bench or bust runs about 60% or more.

This kind study has been done repeatedly by many sources and it's always the same. If you're picking in the 20s, the chances of getting even something even as good as a bench role player is less than 50%. So if you're complaining about Ainge hitting 3 of 7 in those ranges then you must expect that Ainge has to impressively exceed the averages of the rest of the NBA or he's a failure in drafting. I don't find that a reasonable position.

Ultimately, Ainge isn't going to be judged on a handful of crappy low 1st round picks. He's going to be judged on Smart, Brown and (hopefully) a forthcoming high 1st this coming year. If he misses on those picks, he's going to be ultimately judged a failure. If he doesn't then he's going to be seen as a masterful GM (again, since he's already brought Boston one title).

[The Oracle]

Let me get this straight, sample sizes of 5-7 late 1st round draft picks draft picks are being used as proof that Ainge is a bad drafter?  This thread just reeks of confirmation bias.  You can't just stop looking at data at a certain point because the previous data doesn't fit your narrative, especially when you are dealing with a ridiculously small sample.  Olynyk being drafted at 15 in a redraft is laughable, I would love to see someone justify that nonsense.  Ainge's draft record is well above average when everything is taken into consideration and looked at without using the junk science being used in this thread.

[MBunge]

Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.

By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike

It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.  If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6).  Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them. 

Take Giddens, the 30th pick.  31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute.  Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games. 

How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick.  The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler.  Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.

Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo.  Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.

You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades.  In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades.  He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb.  Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets.  It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit.  You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins.  You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round.  But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking.

again, context is necessary. first, where in the first round has ainge to drafting and how many "homeruns" come from that range? is ainge's drafting of players from that range inline with league averages?

further, draft choices also need to be evaluated based upon the analyses THEN, not using 20/20 hindsight. what were the realistic alternatives THEN?

third, compared to other GMs drafting in basically the same range, how does ainge compare nba wide?

to consider late first rounders and second rounders wasted picks is really straining things. the success rate for late first rounders is somewhere around 25 to 30 percent depending upon the article and standards you invoke.

over his career, has ainge been able to acquire nba starters from drafting in the 20s? and if so, at what rate? ainge is not bad at drafting and it would be fair to say he is good at it given the location in the first round.

My issue isn't that he hasn't hit homeruns with late 1st round picks, it is that he is striking out looking in 3 pitches way more than the league average.  Look at Boston's drafts from from 2008 on which I posted earlier.  That is 9 drafts of basically way below average results.

Those 9 drafts produced four of the top eight rotation players, including two starters, on a 48-win playoff team.  By contrast, Memphis didn't have a single player it drafted since 2008 in its top 8 rotation last year.

Mike

Of course Memphis' best player is Mike Conley who Memphis did actually draft (I know it was 2007).  The rest of Memphis rotation were players acquired via trade or free agency.  Of course during that 2008 time period, Memphis drafted the following players outside of the lottery in the 1st round DeMarre Carroll, Greivis Vasquez, Tony Wroten (who they traded after his first season), and in the last two drafts Jordan Adams and Jarell Martin (both of whom are still on the team) before grabbing Wade Baldwin this year (and Deyonta Davis at the top of the 2nd round).  Carroll and Vasquez are both still in the league and Carroll is a pretty solid starter.  I don't believe Wroten is in the league anymore, though had a couple of decent years in Philly after Memphis traded him there.  Adams and Martin are obviously still on the team, but were not in the rotation so they might bust out or might end up being respectable enough players.

But why are you making excuses for Memphis that you won't for Ainge?  Vasquez is vastly worse than Sully and Carroll isn't any better than Bradley.  By YOUR standards and YOUR time frame, Memphis has pretty clearly done a worse job drafting than Ainge.

Mike

I'm not making excuses for Memphis.  I'm saying Memphis has had 6 picks since 2008 that have fallen outside of the lottery, only 1 of those is not still in the league.  Boston has had 9 picks (including Yab and Ante) that have fallen outside of the lottery, 3 of those players are not still in the league and at least 1 more is about to be cut (though could be picked up by another team).  If we eliminate the players from the most recent draft that is 1 of 5 for Memphis or 3 of 7 for Boston.  If you can't figure out the difference in those numbers, I don't know what to tell you.

And why, exactly, are we limiting this discussion to non-lottery picks?

Memphis picked Hasheem Thabeet with the #2 pick in 2009, passing on James Harden, Tyreke Evans, Ricky Rubio, Stephen Curry, DeMar Derozen, Brandon Jennings, Gerald Henderson, Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson, Darren Collison, Omri Casspi, Taj Gibson and Demarre Carrol in the first round and DuJuan Blair, Jonas Jerebko, Jodie Meeks, Patrick Beverly, Marcus Thornton, Chase Budinger, Danny Green and Patty Mills in the second round.

Hasheem Thabeet's career stats - 224 games, 2.2 points and 2.7 rebounds.

That pick is, by any reasonable standard, far worse than all of Ainge's late second round misses put together.

Mike

Because recently Boston hasn't had any lottery picks until Olynyk, Smart, and Brown.  Olynyk was an average pick (i.e. likely in the same general range, though he probably goes a bit later than 12 in a redraft) and it is too early to tell with Smart or Brown.  Thus, if you are comparing Boston's recent drafts with the league, you have to look at the later picks since that is where the vast majority of Boston's picks have ended up.

But you are making the argument that Ainge is a terrible drafter and the only way you can defend that position is to explicitly exclude EVERYTHING except the evidence that supports it.  Yes, Ainge clearly missed on several late 1st round picks in the last seven drafts.  His draft history, however, includes a bunch of other average to excellent picks and there is an established record of other GMs missing on picks far worse than anything Ainge has done.

The proposition that Ainge is an awful drafter based ONLY on how less than a handful of late first round picks have turned out over the last 8 years and that completely ignores every other consideration is simply not reasonable.

Mike

[celticsclay]

Let me get this straight, sample sizes of 5-7 late 1st round draft picks draft picks are being used as proof that Ainge is a bad drafter?  This thread just reeks of confirmation bias.  You can't just stop looking at data at a certain point because the previous data doesn't fit your narrative, especially when you are dealing with a ridiculously small sample.  Olynyk being drafted at 15 in a redraft is laughable, I would love to see someone justify that nonsense.  Ainge's draft record is well above average when everything is taken into consideration and looked at without using the junk science being used in this thread.

I think it is fair to be disappointed and even mildly upset about the Fab Melo and James Young selections. Fab was 22nd pick, Young was 17th. There were still some good players that could have reasonably been drafted in those spots and they were closer to the middle of the first round than the end. However, Johnson at 27 and Giddens at 30 do seem to show a lack of understanding of the average career of players picked in that slot to complain about 5-7 years after the fact or call them misses.. harping on the fact that they didn't sit in a suit on the end of the bench like the majority of the guys on these lists for an extra year of their rookie contract also is equally bizarre.

[Moranis]

Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.

By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike

It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.  If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6).  Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them. 

Take Giddens, the 30th pick.  31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute.  Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games. 

How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick.  The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler.  Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.

Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo.  Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.

You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades.  In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades.  He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb.  Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets.  It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit.  You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins.  You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round.  But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking.

again, context is necessary. first, where in the first round has ainge to drafting and how many "homeruns" come from that range? is ainge's drafting of players from that range inline with league averages?

further, draft choices also need to be evaluated based upon the analyses THEN, not using 20/20 hindsight. what were the realistic alternatives THEN?

third, compared to other GMs drafting in basically the same range, how does ainge compare nba wide?

to consider late first rounders and second rounders wasted picks is really straining things. the success rate for late first rounders is somewhere around 25 to 30 percent depending upon the article and standards you invoke.

over his career, has ainge been able to acquire nba starters from drafting in the 20s? and if so, at what rate? ainge is not bad at drafting and it would be fair to say he is good at it given the location in the first round.

My issue isn't that he hasn't hit homeruns with late 1st round picks, it is that he is striking out looking in 3 pitches way more than the league average.  Look at Boston's drafts from from 2008 on which I posted earlier.  That is 9 drafts of basically way below average results.

TP to you for a realistic analysis of Ainge's GM game.

I completely agree. Ainge is an astute trader, one of the best active in the game - when he chooses to utilize that skill, which in my view is nowhere near often enough.

His ability to evaluate college players, on the other hand, is mediocre at best, and his draft record is extremely average - again at best.

Of course, that doesn't entirely fit the near-spiritual worship of Ainge that his fanboys demand, facts be hanged.

Outstanding post.

so, if you regard him as average, by definition he's in the middle of the pack amongst his fellow GMs.  Who is it that you consider to be better than Danny, especially when taking into account the late draft position that he's had?

Honest question.  I know I give you a lot of grief for just complaining without any substance to back it up but this is a genuine question.  Who is it that regularly drafts mid-to-late first round and has a better track record? 

"Fanboys" is a derogatory term that doesn't fit.  Danny has done a pretty decent job with picks overall, particularly in comparison to his peers that late in the draft. 

Early in his tenure, his drafting was praised and his trades were panned.  in the past few years, the opposite could be said.

Here is the Spurs (I'm not sure if some of those were draft day trades and thus not actually Spurs picks - and remember Leonard was 15 who they traded Hill for to draft on draft night)  http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/draft.html

Here is the Thunder (obviously take the high lottery picks out of this analysis, again may be a draft day trade or two in there, i.e. I don't think they drafted Bledsoe) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/OKC/draft.html

Here is the Hawks (again didn't confirm draft day trades) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/draft.html

Here is the Bulls (again didn't look at draft day trades) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/draft.html

There aren't many other teams that have been consistently drafting at the back of the 1st round that kept enough picks to get a good sample (i.e. the Lakers, Heat, Mavs, Clippers, etc. traded a bunch of picks).  That is where the league average has to come into play.

Looking at the Hawks (who had a few good-to-great picks, like Teague and Schroeder, and a lot of missed picks) and the Bulls (who had some picks that look good like Portis and some hot messes like taking McBuckets at #11), I don't see how they're demonstrably better than Ainge.  It's hit and miss in the late first for everyone.  In context, Ainge's record hardly fits the description of "extremely average [...] at best" (as CoachBo said).  Average to slightly above average is probably more likely, but I think it's still too early to evaluate guys from the 2014 draft (with obvious exceptions like Royce White), never mind guys from the 2015 and 2016 drafts, and that's where a lot of Danny's picks have been (seriously, he's made 7 first round picks in the past 3 drafts, which is as many as he made in the 7 years prior to that. It'll be the most telling part of his tenure, draft-wise)

I'm not sure I would call McBuckets hot garbage.  May not end up being worth the 11th pick (especially when 16 and 19 were Nurkic and Harris), but doesn't look like he is headed for out of the league either.  Of course, even if McBuckets flames out these are Chicago's non-lottery 1st round picks since 2009 - James Johnson (300+ games), Taj Gibson, Trade 28 (Norris Cole) and 43 (Malcolm Lee) for Nikola Mirotic, Jimmy Butler, Marquis Teague (traded him after a year or so), Tony Snell, and Bobby Portis.  Teague is the only guy not still in the league that could be considered a poor selection though Chicago traded him before he flamed out.  But couple that one bad pick against the two grandslams in Gibson and Butler and the homerun trade of 28 and 43 for Mirotic (even with Cole having a pretty solid career and way outperforming his draft position acquiring Mirotic was the better move), and it is easy to see why Chicago has way out paced Boston in the non-lottery pick department.  Chicago has had two lottery picks in that time period, Doug McDermott who they acquired with the 16th and 19th picks and then this past draft taking Denzel Valentine.  Obviously still too early to call either of those picks unless Chicago cuts them before the season.

It was more the trade that I'm calling hot garbage, I just did a ****ty job of making that obvious

no arguments there. 

[Moranis]

Because recently Boston hasn't had any lottery picks until Olynyk, Smart, and Brown.  Olynyk was an average pick (i.e. likely in the same general range, though he probably goes a bit later than 12 in a redraft) and it is too early to tell with Smart or Brown.  Thus, if you are comparing Boston's recent drafts with the league, you have to look at the later picks since that is where the vast majority of Boston's picks have ended up.

There is no question Thabeet was a terrible pick and given how he was taken it is much worse.  Thabeet was one of those reach picks that didn't work out, much like Melo for Boston though far worse because he was the 2nd pick.  I'm not suggesting otherwise, I'm suggesting that 4 complete failures in 7 drafts is a terrible record.  I really can't see how anyone can defend that, especially when the non-failures have been KO, Bradley, and Sullinger i.e. a role player, a solid starter, and a guy no longer on the team because he had weight/work ethic issues.  Look if Ainge was 4 of 7 on terrible picks but had 3 all stars from the other spots (you know like earlier in his drafting career) then it isn't that bad, but you can't be mediocre on 3 of 7 and absolutely terrible in the other 4.  That isn't a way to sustain long term success.  Now maybe Smart takes a leap this year and Brown ends up great, that would certainly help and maybe again you can overlook all the wasted assets and lost value Ainge blew since drafting Rondo in 2006.

Here's the rub. A player selected outside the lottery in the first round has less than 50% chance of becoming even a contributor - never mind a starter - in the NBA. So you absolutely CAN be "mediocre" drafting in the high teens and mid 20s. The league average in those spots isn't any better than Ainge.  I'd also argue that Bradley is far better than mediocre and Sullinger has started 171 games in his career which makes him more than just a bench player.

Once you get past about 16 or so, the chances of a player becoming a solid starter is somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-25%. A star is about 5%.  Role players account for another 30%. Deep bench runs about the same. About 15% are total busts. Those numbers decrease as you get to the late first round to the point that a starter or better in the late 20s is about 15% and a deep bench or bust runs about 60% or more.

This kind study has been done repeatedly by many sources and it's always the same. If you're picking in the 20s, the chances of getting even something even as good as a bench role player is less than 50%. So if you're complaining about Ainge hitting 3 of 7 in those ranges then you must expect that Ainge has to impressively exceed the averages of the rest of the NBA or he's a failure in drafting. I don't find that a reasonable position.

Ultimately, Ainge isn't going to be judged on a handful of crappy low 1st round picks. He's going to be judged on Smart, Brown and (hopefully) a forthcoming high 1st this coming year. If he misses on those picks, he's going to be ultimately judged a failure. If he doesn't then he's going to be seen as a masterful GM (again, since he's already brought Boston one title).

I think those numbers are about right, but Ainge has busted on 4 of his last 7 (not counting the last two drafts since those are too early) which equates to 57%.  That is far greater than the league average.  That is the point I've been making. 

I do also agree that Smart and Brown will go a lot further in Ainge's legacy than the later 1st's, but you can't just disregard the later 1st's either.

[Moranis]

Let me get this straight, sample sizes of 5-7 late 1st round draft picks draft picks are being used as proof that Ainge is a bad drafter?  This thread just reeks of confirmation bias.  You can't just stop looking at data at a certain point because the previous data doesn't fit your narrative, especially when you are dealing with a ridiculously small sample.  Olynyk being drafted at 15 in a redraft is laughable, I would love to see someone justify that nonsense.  Ainge's draft record is well above average when everything is taken into consideration and looked at without using the junk science being used in this thread.

2013 draft

Players Clearly taken ahead of KO in a redraft (in no particular order) - 8
Noel
Oladipo
Caldwell-Pope
McCollum
Adams
Giannis
Schroder
Gobert


Players likely taken ahead of KO in a redraft (in no particular order) - 6
Dieng
Plumlee
Crabbe
Len
Zeller
Porter

That would put KO at 15, of course you also have these guys which a team might actually favor over KO as they might have a skill with a higher peak (like Roberson for wing defense). 
MCW
Roberson
Hill
McLemore
Muhammad
Burke
Snell

[JBcat]

I've been thinking about the discussion in this thread, and my answer to this question is no.

Even if you think his drafting is average Ainge is one of the best in accumulating assets or simply draft picks.   So it gives him more chances to land solid players as drafting can be an inexact science (as pointed out several times in this thread).   I mean seriously if you look at Ainge's entire tenure or even since 2008 I don't think there is another team that has had more draft picks.   He has landed solid players in the teens in Bradley and KO, made use out of Sully in recent years.  I'm hoping for more from Smart, and a case can be made we should have drafted Randle (but he didn't even want to work out for us), so I can live with the pick.  The book obviously has yet to be written about Brown.       

We have a youngish team, lots of flexibility, should win around 50 games, and still have 4 future first rounders coming from other teams (2 Nets picks, Grizzlies, and Clippers).

I will also say it may be premature to write the final book on our recent draftees (I'm not even sure Young is of drinking age yet although I will admit I'm not crazy about his game) as we don't know how this will all play out with our final roster, or what more improvements they will make to their game.   But if we have to cut 1 or 2 of our recent draftees from the second half of the first round it's not the end of the world.   I might think a little differently if we had won 25 games last year, but we don't have that type of team.  It's a good problem to have that not many teams can share, and we still have a great amount of assets to make our team even better.     

[celticsclay]

I've been thinking about the discussion in this thread, and my answer to this question is no.

Even if you think his drafting is average Ainge is one of the best in accumulating assets or simply draft picks.   So it gives him more chances to land solid players as drafting can be an inexact science (as pointed out several times in this thread).   I mean seriously if you look at Ainge's entire tenure or even since 2008 I don't think there is another team that has had more draft picks.   He has landed solid players in the teens in Bradley and KO, made use out of Sully in recent years.  I'm hoping for more from Smart, and a case can be made we should have drafted Randle (but he didn't even want to work out for us), so I can live with the pick.  The book obviously has yet to be written about Brown.       

We have a youngish team, lots of flexibility, should win around 50 games, and still have 4 future first rounders coming from other teams (2 Nets picks, Grizzlies, and Clippers).

I will also say it may be premature to write the final book on our recent draftees (I'm not even sure Young is of drinking age yet although I will admit I'm not crazy about his game) as we don't know how this will all play out with our final roster, or what more improvements they will make to their game.   But if we have to cut 1 or 2 of our recent draftees from the second half of the first round it's not the end of the world.   I might think a little differently if we had won 25 games last year, but we don't have that type of team.  It's a good problem to have that not many teams can share, and we still have a great amount of assets to make our team even better.   

good points. good stuff