Author Topic: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?  (Read 29946 times)

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Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #45 on: August 29, 2016, 11:15:57 AM »

Offline MBunge

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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike
It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.

Except, as has been demonstrated in this very thread, GMs totally bomb first round picks ALL THE TIME.  You are obsessed with Ainge missing on the 30th and 27th pick in two different drafts, yet it's been established that the same time period has seen other GMs totally miss on picks 16, 10, 12, 9, 10, 15, 19, 17, 8, 11, 11, 13 and #1!

I wouldn't say Ainge is an exceptionally good drafter.  His successes are certainly balanced out with failures.  But the suggestion he's a terrible drafter isn't supported by the evidence.

Mike

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #46 on: August 29, 2016, 11:44:33 AM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike
It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.  If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6).  Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them. 

Take Giddens, the 30th pick.  31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute.  Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games. 

How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick.  The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler.  Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.

Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo.  Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.

You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades.  In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades.  He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb.  Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets.  It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit.  You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins.  You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round.  But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking.
again, context is necessary. first, where in the first round has ainge to drafting and how many "homeruns" come from that range? is ainge's drafting of players from that range inline with league averages?

further, draft choices also need to be evaluated based upon the analyses THEN, not using 20/20 hindsight. what were the realistic alternatives THEN?

third, compared to other GMs drafting in basically the same range, how does ainge compare nba wide?

to consider late first rounders and second rounders wasted picks is really straining things. the success rate for late first rounders is somewhere around 25 to 30 percent depending upon the article and standards you invoke.

over his career, has ainge been able to acquire nba starters from drafting in the 20s? and if so, at what rate? ainge is not bad at drafting and it would be fair to say he is good at it given the location in the first round.
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Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #47 on: August 29, 2016, 11:51:57 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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I don't think the difference between being kept 3 years and 4 years is too meaningful given the C's roster spot crunch due to so many picks. Plenty of misses get that 4th year just to save face or on hope when roster spots aren't tight.

Still in it would be nice to have another even Sully sized hit out of this latest batch of picks. And of course Brown and the BKN pick this year mean way more than the mid to low first round picks.

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #48 on: August 29, 2016, 12:53:07 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike
It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.

Except, as has been demonstrated in this very thread, GMs totally bomb first round picks ALL THE TIME.  You are obsessed with Ainge missing on the 30th and 27th pick in two different drafts, yet it's been established that the same time period has seen other GMs totally miss on picks 16, 10, 12, 9, 10, 15, 19, 17, 8, 11, 11, 13 and #1!

I wouldn't say Ainge is an exceptionally good drafter.  His successes are certainly balanced out with failures.  But the suggestion he's a terrible drafter isn't supported by the evidence.

Mike

I think moranis has made some good points and reasonable grades of the Celtics recent picks. I do agree that harping on whether giddens or Johnson had their options picked up to try and make that point is a bit strange. If giddens had been drafted on a rebuilding team he certainly could have had his option picked up, but we were contending and wanted to fill the end of the bench with veterans instead of long shot young players. The picks of young or fab Melo could actually be more significant as they were not at the very end of the draft

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #49 on: August 29, 2016, 01:00:38 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike
It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.  If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6).  Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them. 

Take Giddens, the 30th pick.  31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute.  Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games. 

How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick.  The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler.  Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.

Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo.  Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.

You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades.  In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades.  He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb.  Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets.  It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit.  You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins.  You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round.  But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking.
again, context is necessary. first, where in the first round has ainge to drafting and how many "homeruns" come from that range? is ainge's drafting of players from that range inline with league averages?

further, draft choices also need to be evaluated based upon the analyses THEN, not using 20/20 hindsight. what were the realistic alternatives THEN?

third, compared to other GMs drafting in basically the same range, how does ainge compare nba wide?

to consider late first rounders and second rounders wasted picks is really straining things. the success rate for late first rounders is somewhere around 25 to 30 percent depending upon the article and standards you invoke.

over his career, has ainge been able to acquire nba starters from drafting in the 20s? and if so, at what rate? ainge is not bad at drafting and it would be fair to say he is good at it given the location in the first round.
My issue isn't that he hasn't hit homeruns with late 1st round picks, it is that he is striking out looking in 3 pitches way more than the league average.  Look at Boston's drafts from from 2008 on which I posted earlier.  That is 9 drafts of basically way below average results. 
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Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #50 on: August 29, 2016, 01:08:41 PM »

Offline Ed Hollison

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I think most people who complain about Ainge's draft record are myopically looking at the Celtics and ignoring the record of other teams. And I don't count "But DeAndre Jordan went #35" as actually understanding other teams' draft records.

These draft picks are all rolls of the dice. Some have higher expected payouts than others. But there is tremendous uncertainty in all of them.

What Ainge has done in recent years, I think, is somewhat similar to the Patriots' strategy: Just admit to yourself that it's an uncertain exercise, and get as many rolls at the roulette wheel as possible to maximize your chances of winning on one of them.
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Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #51 on: August 29, 2016, 01:27:55 PM »

Offline MBunge

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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike
It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.  If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6).  Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them. 

Take Giddens, the 30th pick.  31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute.  Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games. 

How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick.  The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler.  Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.

Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo.  Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.

You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades.  In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades.  He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb.  Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets.  It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit.  You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins.  You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round.  But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking.
again, context is necessary. first, where in the first round has ainge to drafting and how many "homeruns" come from that range? is ainge's drafting of players from that range inline with league averages?

further, draft choices also need to be evaluated based upon the analyses THEN, not using 20/20 hindsight. what were the realistic alternatives THEN?

third, compared to other GMs drafting in basically the same range, how does ainge compare nba wide?

to consider late first rounders and second rounders wasted picks is really straining things. the success rate for late first rounders is somewhere around 25 to 30 percent depending upon the article and standards you invoke.

over his career, has ainge been able to acquire nba starters from drafting in the 20s? and if so, at what rate? ainge is not bad at drafting and it would be fair to say he is good at it given the location in the first round.
My issue isn't that he hasn't hit homeruns with late 1st round picks, it is that he is striking out looking in 3 pitches way more than the league average.  Look at Boston's drafts from from 2008 on which I posted earlier.  That is 9 drafts of basically way below average results.

Those 9 drafts produced four of the top eight rotation players, including two starters, on a 48-win playoff team.  By contrast, Memphis didn't have a single player it drafted since 2008 in its top 8 rotation last year.

Mike

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #52 on: August 29, 2016, 01:35:59 PM »

Offline CoachBo

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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike
It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.  If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6).  Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them. 

Take Giddens, the 30th pick.  31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute.  Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games. 

How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick.  The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler.  Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.

Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo.  Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.

You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades.  In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades.  He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb.  Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets.  It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit.  You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins.  You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round.  But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking.
again, context is necessary. first, where in the first round has ainge to drafting and how many "homeruns" come from that range? is ainge's drafting of players from that range inline with league averages?

further, draft choices also need to be evaluated based upon the analyses THEN, not using 20/20 hindsight. what were the realistic alternatives THEN?

third, compared to other GMs drafting in basically the same range, how does ainge compare nba wide?

to consider late first rounders and second rounders wasted picks is really straining things. the success rate for late first rounders is somewhere around 25 to 30 percent depending upon the article and standards you invoke.

over his career, has ainge been able to acquire nba starters from drafting in the 20s? and if so, at what rate? ainge is not bad at drafting and it would be fair to say he is good at it given the location in the first round.
My issue isn't that he hasn't hit homeruns with late 1st round picks, it is that he is striking out looking in 3 pitches way more than the league average.  Look at Boston's drafts from from 2008 on which I posted earlier.  That is 9 drafts of basically way below average results.

TP to you for a realistic analysis of Ainge's GM game.

I completely agree. Ainge is an astute trader, one of the best active in the game - when he chooses to utilize that skill, which in my view is nowhere near often enough.

His ability to evaluate college players, on the other hand, is mediocre at best, and his draft record is extremely average - again at best.

Of course, that doesn't entirely fit the near-spiritual worship of Ainge that his fanboys demand, facts be hanged.

Outstanding post.
Coined the CelticsBlog term, "Euromistake."

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #53 on: August 29, 2016, 01:46:14 PM »

Offline number_n9ne

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Hindsight is 20/20 so looking back at the 2014 draft it's easy to label Young as a bust. I wanted Gary Harris at that spot but alas. I won't be upset that we took a swing for the fences and missed. Holland is a no-brainer as a waived asset. If we waive Hunter, who I'm very high on, I'd be upset. I am upset about giving Bentil a partially-guaranteed camp deal when he has little to no chance to make the roster. I think he should have taken the same route as Nader so we could keep control. He was one of my second round binkies and I still think he could develop into a rotation level stretch four, but now it's most likely going to be for someone else.

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #54 on: August 29, 2016, 01:48:49 PM »

Offline MBunge

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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike
It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.  If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6).  Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them. 

Take Giddens, the 30th pick.  31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute.  Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games. 

How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick.  The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler.  Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.

Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo.  Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.

You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades.  In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades.  He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb.  Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets.  It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit.  You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins.  You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round.  But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking.
again, context is necessary. first, where in the first round has ainge to drafting and how many "homeruns" come from that range? is ainge's drafting of players from that range inline with league averages?

further, draft choices also need to be evaluated based upon the analyses THEN, not using 20/20 hindsight. what were the realistic alternatives THEN?

third, compared to other GMs drafting in basically the same range, how does ainge compare nba wide?

to consider late first rounders and second rounders wasted picks is really straining things. the success rate for late first rounders is somewhere around 25 to 30 percent depending upon the article and standards you invoke.

over his career, has ainge been able to acquire nba starters from drafting in the 20s? and if so, at what rate? ainge is not bad at drafting and it would be fair to say he is good at it given the location in the first round.
My issue isn't that he hasn't hit homeruns with late 1st round picks, it is that he is striking out looking in 3 pitches way more than the league average.  Look at Boston's drafts from from 2008 on which I posted earlier.  That is 9 drafts of basically way below average results.

TP to you for a realistic analysis of Ainge's GM game.

I completely agree. Ainge is an astute trader, one of the best active in the game - when he chooses to utilize that skill, which in my view is nowhere near often enough.

His ability to evaluate college players, on the other hand, is mediocre at best, and his draft record is extremely average - again at best.

Of course, that doesn't entirely fit the near-spiritual worship of Ainge that his fanboys demand, facts be hanged.

Outstanding post.

Average compared to what?

Sine 2008, the Milwaukee Bucks have drafted Joe Alexander with #8, Larry Sanders with #15 and Jimmer Fredette with #10.  With Sanders flaking out, you can argue that any one of those picks is far worse than any of Ainge's mistakes, and combined they might be worse than all of Ainge's misses put together.

Mike

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #55 on: August 29, 2016, 01:52:56 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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  • Posts: 15739
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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike
It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.  If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6).  Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them. 

Take Giddens, the 30th pick.  31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute.  Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games. 

How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick.  The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler.  Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.

Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo.  Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.

You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades.  In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades.  He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb.  Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets.  It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit.  You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins.  You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round.  But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking.
again, context is necessary. first, where in the first round has ainge to drafting and how many "homeruns" come from that range? is ainge's drafting of players from that range inline with league averages?

further, draft choices also need to be evaluated based upon the analyses THEN, not using 20/20 hindsight. what were the realistic alternatives THEN?

third, compared to other GMs drafting in basically the same range, how does ainge compare nba wide?

to consider late first rounders and second rounders wasted picks is really straining things. the success rate for late first rounders is somewhere around 25 to 30 percent depending upon the article and standards you invoke.

over his career, has ainge been able to acquire nba starters from drafting in the 20s? and if so, at what rate? ainge is not bad at drafting and it would be fair to say he is good at it given the location in the first round.
My issue isn't that he hasn't hit homeruns with late 1st round picks, it is that he is striking out looking in 3 pitches way more than the league average.  Look at Boston's drafts from from 2008 on which I posted earlier.  That is 9 drafts of basically way below average results.

TP to you for a realistic analysis of Ainge's GM game.

I completely agree. Ainge is an astute trader, one of the best active in the game - when he chooses to utilize that skill, which in my view is nowhere near often enough.

His ability to evaluate college players, on the other hand, is mediocre at best, and his draft record is extremely average - again at best.

Of course, that doesn't entirely fit the near-spiritual worship of Ainge that his fanboys demand, facts be hanged.

Outstanding post.

Isn't it kind of hard to be upset Ainge when we have a 50 win team, added a top free agent and the number 3 pick and have a probable top 3 pick on the way next season no matter what happens?

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #56 on: August 29, 2016, 01:54:04 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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  • Red Auerbach
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  • Posts: 31869
  • Tommy Points: 10047
Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike
It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.  If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6).  Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them. 

Take Giddens, the 30th pick.  31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute.  Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games. 

How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick.  The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler.  Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.

Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo.  Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.

You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades.  In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades.  He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb.  Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets.  It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit.  You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins.  You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round.  But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking.
again, context is necessary. first, where in the first round has ainge to drafting and how many "homeruns" come from that range? is ainge's drafting of players from that range inline with league averages?

further, draft choices also need to be evaluated based upon the analyses THEN, not using 20/20 hindsight. what were the realistic alternatives THEN?

third, compared to other GMs drafting in basically the same range, how does ainge compare nba wide?

to consider late first rounders and second rounders wasted picks is really straining things. the success rate for late first rounders is somewhere around 25 to 30 percent depending upon the article and standards you invoke.

over his career, has ainge been able to acquire nba starters from drafting in the 20s? and if so, at what rate? ainge is not bad at drafting and it would be fair to say he is good at it given the location in the first round.
My issue isn't that he hasn't hit homeruns with late 1st round picks, it is that he is striking out looking in 3 pitches way more than the league average.  Look at Boston's drafts from from 2008 on which I posted earlier.  That is 9 drafts of basically way below average results.

TP to you for a realistic analysis of Ainge's GM game.

I completely agree. Ainge is an astute trader, one of the best active in the game - when he chooses to utilize that skill, which in my view is nowhere near often enough.

His ability to evaluate college players, on the other hand, is mediocre at best, and his draft record is extremely average - again at best.

Of course, that doesn't entirely fit the near-spiritual worship of Ainge that his fanboys demand, facts be hanged.

Outstanding post.
so, if you regard him as average, by definition he's in the middle of the pack amongst his fellow GMs.  Who is it that you consider to be better than Danny, especially when taking into account the late draft position that he's had?

Honest question.  I know I give you a lot of grief for just complaining without any substance to back it up but this is a genuine question.  Who is it that regularly drafts mid-to-late first round and has a better track record? 

"Fanboys" is a derogatory term that doesn't fit.  Danny has done a pretty decent job with picks overall, particularly in comparison to his peers that late in the draft. 

Early in his tenure, his drafting was praised and his trades were panned.  in the past few years, the opposite could be said. 

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #57 on: August 29, 2016, 01:57:05 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike
It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.  If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6).  Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them. 

Take Giddens, the 30th pick.  31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute.  Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games. 

How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick.  The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler.  Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.

Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo.  Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.

You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades.  In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades.  He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb.  Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets.  It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit.  You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins.  You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round.  But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking.
again, context is necessary. first, where in the first round has ainge to drafting and how many "homeruns" come from that range? is ainge's drafting of players from that range inline with league averages?

further, draft choices also need to be evaluated based upon the analyses THEN, not using 20/20 hindsight. what were the realistic alternatives THEN?

third, compared to other GMs drafting in basically the same range, how does ainge compare nba wide?

to consider late first rounders and second rounders wasted picks is really straining things. the success rate for late first rounders is somewhere around 25 to 30 percent depending upon the article and standards you invoke.

over his career, has ainge been able to acquire nba starters from drafting in the 20s? and if so, at what rate? ainge is not bad at drafting and it would be fair to say he is good at it given the location in the first round.
My issue isn't that he hasn't hit homeruns with late 1st round picks, it is that he is striking out looking in 3 pitches way more than the league average.  Look at Boston's drafts from from 2008 on which I posted earlier.  That is 9 drafts of basically way below average results.

Those 9 drafts produced four of the top eight rotation players, including two starters, on a 48-win playoff team.  By contrast, Memphis didn't have a single player it drafted since 2008 in its top 8 rotation last year.

Mike
Of course Memphis' best player is Mike Conley who Memphis did actually draft (I know it was 2007).  The rest of Memphis rotation were players acquired via trade or free agency.  Of course during that 2008 time period, Memphis drafted the following players outside of the lottery in the 1st round DeMarre Carroll, Greivis Vasquez, Tony Wroten (who they traded after his first season), and in the last two drafts Jordan Adams and Jarell Martin (both of whom are still on the team) before grabbing Wade Baldwin this year (and Deyonta Davis at the top of the 2nd round).  Carroll and Vasquez are both still in the league and Carroll is a pretty solid starter.  I don't believe Wroten is in the league anymore, though had a couple of decent years in Philly after Memphis traded him there.  Adams and Martin are obviously still on the team, but were not in the rotation so they might bust out or might end up being respectable enough players.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #58 on: August 29, 2016, 02:04:56 PM »

Offline spikelovetheCelts

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I think most people who complain about Ainge's draft record are myopically looking at the Celtics and ignoring the record of other teams. And I don't count "But DeAndre Jordan went #35" as actually understanding other teams' draft records.

These draft picks are all rolls of the dice. Some have higher expected payouts than others. But there is tremendous uncertainty in all of them.

What Ainge has done in recent years, I think, is somewhat similar to the Patriots' strategy: Just admit to yourself that it's an uncertain exercise, and get as many rolls at the roulette wheel as possible to maximize your chances of winning on one of them.
Moore was a second round pick not a Jordan or Green but a great pick. JJJ and Melo never showed anything. I bet James young could win a game of horse with the current Celtics.
"People look at players, watch them dribble between their legs and they say, 'There's a superstar.'  Well John Havlicek is a superstar, and most of the others are figments of writers' imagination."
--Jerry West, on John Havlicek

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #59 on: August 29, 2016, 02:06:38 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike
It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.  If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6).  Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them. 

Take Giddens, the 30th pick.  31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute.  Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games. 

How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick.  The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler.  Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.

Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo.  Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.

You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades.  In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades.  He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb.  Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets.  It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit.  You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins.  You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round.  But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking.
again, context is necessary. first, where in the first round has ainge to drafting and how many "homeruns" come from that range? is ainge's drafting of players from that range inline with league averages?

further, draft choices also need to be evaluated based upon the analyses THEN, not using 20/20 hindsight. what were the realistic alternatives THEN?

third, compared to other GMs drafting in basically the same range, how does ainge compare nba wide?

to consider late first rounders and second rounders wasted picks is really straining things. the success rate for late first rounders is somewhere around 25 to 30 percent depending upon the article and standards you invoke.

over his career, has ainge been able to acquire nba starters from drafting in the 20s? and if so, at what rate? ainge is not bad at drafting and it would be fair to say he is good at it given the location in the first round.
My issue isn't that he hasn't hit homeruns with late 1st round picks, it is that he is striking out looking in 3 pitches way more than the league average.  Look at Boston's drafts from from 2008 on which I posted earlier.  That is 9 drafts of basically way below average results.

TP to you for a realistic analysis of Ainge's GM game.

I completely agree. Ainge is an astute trader, one of the best active in the game - when he chooses to utilize that skill, which in my view is nowhere near often enough.

His ability to evaluate college players, on the other hand, is mediocre at best, and his draft record is extremely average - again at best.

Of course, that doesn't entirely fit the near-spiritual worship of Ainge that his fanboys demand, facts be hanged.

Outstanding post.
so, if you regard him as average, by definition he's in the middle of the pack amongst his fellow GMs.  Who is it that you consider to be better than Danny, especially when taking into account the late draft position that he's had?

Honest question.  I know I give you a lot of grief for just complaining without any substance to back it up but this is a genuine question.  Who is it that regularly drafts mid-to-late first round and has a better track record? 

"Fanboys" is a derogatory term that doesn't fit.  Danny has done a pretty decent job with picks overall, particularly in comparison to his peers that late in the draft. 

Early in his tenure, his drafting was praised and his trades were panned.  in the past few years, the opposite could be said.
Here is the Spurs (I'm not sure if some of those were draft day trades and thus not actually Spurs picks - and remember Leonard was 15 who they traded Hill for to draft on draft night)  http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/draft.html

Here is the Thunder (obviously take the high lottery picks out of this analysis, again may be a draft day trade or two in there, i.e. I don't think they drafted Bledsoe) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/OKC/draft.html

Here is the Hawks (again didn't confirm draft day trades) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/draft.html

Here is the Bulls (again didn't look at draft day trades) http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/draft.html

There aren't many other teams that have been consistently drafting at the back of the 1st round that kept enough picks to get a good sample (i.e. the Lakers, Heat, Mavs, Clippers, etc. traded a bunch of picks).  That is where the league average has to come into play. 
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip