Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.
2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year
Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season. I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots. A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline. So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.
And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years. During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years. Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league). Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so. It really is indefensible how bad it has been.
Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.
Mike
It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks. If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6). Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them.
Take Giddens, the 30th pick. 31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute. Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games.
How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick. The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler. Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.
Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo. Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.
You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades. In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades. He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb. Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets. It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit. You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins. You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round. But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking.
again, context is necessary. first, where in the first round has ainge to drafting and how many "homeruns" come from that range? is ainge's drafting of players from that range inline with league averages?
further, draft choices also need to be evaluated based upon the analyses THEN, not using 20/20 hindsight. what were the realistic alternatives THEN?
third, compared to other GMs drafting in basically the same range, how does ainge compare nba wide?
to consider late first rounders and second rounders wasted picks is really straining things. the success rate for late first rounders is somewhere around 25 to 30 percent depending upon the article and standards you invoke.
over his career, has ainge been able to acquire nba starters from drafting in the 20s? and if so, at what rate? ainge is not bad at drafting and it would be fair to say he is good at it given the location in the first round.