Author Topic: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?  (Read 29905 times)

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Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #30 on: August 28, 2016, 10:16:52 AM »

Offline Who

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If waived, yes -- should be traded for a future pick rather than just waived.

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #31 on: August 28, 2016, 11:21:43 AM »

Offline MBunge

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I don't believe late 1st round picks are cut all the time.  Sure they often don't get a second contract, but cut before the original 3 years is actually fairly rare.

What are you talking about, it happens all the time Fab Melo, JuJuan Johnson, JR Giddens, Gerald Green.  Oh wait you're talking about non-Celtics players  ;D

But seriously though, I think it happens enough.  You say 3 years and are specifically talking about being cut, but I would use 4 years, as 1st round rookie contracts are 2 years guaranteed plus 2 one year team options before the player hits restricted free agency.  So going back 10 years, how many 1st round rookies didn't make it past 3-4 years in the league?

2006: 6 guys made it 3 years, 6 guys made it only 4 years
2007: 4 guys made it 3 years or less,5 guys made it only 4 years, 1 guy has never played
2008: 2 guys made it 3 years or less, 1 guy made it only 4 years
2009: 3 guys made it 3 years or less, 2 guys made it only 4 years
2010: 4 guys made it 3 years or less, 3 guys made it only 4 years
2011: 5 guys made it 3 years or less, 0 guys made it only 4 years*
2012: 5 guys made it 3 years or less, 24 guys haven't made it past 4 years! Oh wait I have to stop counting at this point.

*excluding foreigners who came over later like Jonas Valanciunas, Nikola Mirotic, etc.

It seems to me, depending on the year, anywhere from 10% to 40% of first rounders don't make it past 4 years in the league (though I'd say the average is probably closer to 15-20%).  And then we have a variety of reasons of why that happens.

In some cases you have injuries (Jonny Flynn, Greg Oden) or other issues (Royce White, Javaris Crittenton) keeping a player from playing, but on the flip side you have a lot of 10 day contracts keeping a player in the league to even get up to or past 3-4 years at all (DJ White, Terrence Williams, Elliot Williams, Jordan Hamilton, etc.).  Some times a players contract is just allowed to run out and/or the team option isn't picked up (Joe Alexander, Patrick O'Bryant), other times he's shipped around the league as trade filler, and some just happen to have a dad whose a GM.

Again, I know you specifically said players being cut on rookie contracts, so already we may be talking about apples and oranges here.  I'm just saying I would broaden that criteria a little, and a decent amount of teams would have "wasted" a first rounder on a player that they ended up getting little-to-no value from.
I said and meant 3 years, because as you say you are guaranteed 2 and almost always given the 3rd (and in the slightly older days you were guaranteed 3).  But being cut and not being renewed are not anywhere near the same thing.  It is extremely rare for a 1st round pick to not make it to 3 years.  Even terrible players almost always get 3 years.  The fact that Boston has so many players that don't, goes to show Ainge is not nearly the drafter he is made out to be, especially recently, where he has consistently missed.  It is one of the main reasons I wanted him to trade the pick so much last summer.  I just have no confidence in his drafting ability, none at all.  I hope Brown works out, but the shear fact that Ainge took him, doesn't bode well in my mind, especially given where he was projected by virtually everyone else.  Ainge just doesn't have the track record, especially recently, of proving everyone wrong.

If your argument is that Ainge has sucked at drafting guys at the end of the first round, I don't think anyone is going to satisfy you.  Ainge has had a bunch of draft picks that over performed but if you give him no credit for that, the answer is predetermined.

Mike

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #32 on: August 28, 2016, 03:20:01 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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No wasted assets here.

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #33 on: August 28, 2016, 03:37:37 PM »

Offline GetLucky

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I don't believe late 1st round picks are cut all the time.  Sure they often don't get a second contract, but cut before the original 3 years is actually fairly rare.

What are you talking about, it happens all the time Fab Melo, JuJuan Johnson, JR Giddens, Gerald Green.  Oh wait you're talking about non-Celtics players  ;D

But seriously though, I think it happens enough.  You say 3 years and are specifically talking about being cut, but I would use 4 years, as 1st round rookie contracts are 2 years guaranteed plus 2 one year team options before the player hits restricted free agency.  So going back 10 years, how many 1st round rookies didn't make it past 3-4 years in the league?

2006: 6 guys made it 3 years, 6 guys made it only 4 years
2007: 4 guys made it 3 years or less,5 guys made it only 4 years, 1 guy has never played
2008: 2 guys made it 3 years or less, 1 guy made it only 4 years
2009: 3 guys made it 3 years or less, 2 guys made it only 4 years
2010: 4 guys made it 3 years or less, 3 guys made it only 4 years
2011: 5 guys made it 3 years or less, 0 guys made it only 4 years*
2012: 5 guys made it 3 years or less, 24 guys haven't made it past 4 years! Oh wait I have to stop counting at this point.

*excluding foreigners who came over later like Jonas Valanciunas, Nikola Mirotic, etc.

It seems to me, depending on the year, anywhere from 10% to 40% of first rounders don't make it past 4 years in the league (though I'd say the average is probably closer to 15-20%).  And then we have a variety of reasons of why that happens.

In some cases you have injuries (Jonny Flynn, Greg Oden) or other issues (Royce White, Javaris Crittenton) keeping a player from playing, but on the flip side you have a lot of 10 day contracts keeping a player in the league to even get up to or past 3-4 years at all (DJ White, Terrence Williams, Elliot Williams, Jordan Hamilton, etc.).  Some times a players contract is just allowed to run out and/or the team option isn't picked up (Joe Alexander, Patrick O'Bryant), other times he's shipped around the league as trade filler, and some just happen to have a dad whose a GM.

Again, I know you specifically said players being cut on rookie contracts, so already we may be talking about apples and oranges here.  I'm just saying I would broaden that criteria a little, and a decent amount of teams would have "wasted" a first rounder on a player that they ended up getting little-to-no value from.
I said and meant 3 years, because as you say you are guaranteed 2 and almost always given the 3rd (and in the slightly older days you were guaranteed 3).  But being cut and not being renewed are not anywhere near the same thing.  It is extremely rare for a 1st round pick to not make it to 3 years.  Even terrible players almost always get 3 years.  The fact that Boston has so many players that don't, goes to show Ainge is not nearly the drafter he is made out to be, especially recently, where he has consistently missed.  It is one of the main reasons I wanted him to trade the pick so much last summer.  I just have no confidence in his drafting ability, none at all.  I hope Brown works out, but the shear fact that Ainge took him, doesn't bode well in my mind, especially given where he was projected by virtually everyone else.  Ainge just doesn't have the track record, especially recently, of proving everyone wrong.

Actually, I see it as a testament to Danny's ability to field a competitive team. He has consistently picked up valuable players through say signings, trades, and drafting, to the point where the worst player on a roster bubble goes on to do well playing a significant role on another team. No one thought that the trades involving Dwight Powell or E'Twaun Moore were of consequence, and they've both gone on to have great careers as valuable role players. The fact that Ainge has to cut a player or two with a guaranteed contract isn't a failure, it's a success on his end. It's also unfortunate, as I am willing to bet that either Hunter or Young (whoever gets cut) end up with another NBA team this year.

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #34 on: August 28, 2016, 04:21:36 PM »

Online Moranis

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I don't believe late 1st round picks are cut all the time.  Sure they often don't get a second contract, but cut before the original 3 years is actually fairly rare.

What are you talking about, it happens all the time Fab Melo, JuJuan Johnson, JR Giddens, Gerald Green.  Oh wait you're talking about non-Celtics players  ;D

But seriously though, I think it happens enough.  You say 3 years and are specifically talking about being cut, but I would use 4 years, as 1st round rookie contracts are 2 years guaranteed plus 2 one year team options before the player hits restricted free agency.  So going back 10 years, how many 1st round rookies didn't make it past 3-4 years in the league?

2006: 6 guys made it 3 years, 6 guys made it only 4 years
2007: 4 guys made it 3 years or less,5 guys made it only 4 years, 1 guy has never played
2008: 2 guys made it 3 years or less, 1 guy made it only 4 years
2009: 3 guys made it 3 years or less, 2 guys made it only 4 years
2010: 4 guys made it 3 years or less, 3 guys made it only 4 years
2011: 5 guys made it 3 years or less, 0 guys made it only 4 years*
2012: 5 guys made it 3 years or less, 24 guys haven't made it past 4 years! Oh wait I have to stop counting at this point.

*excluding foreigners who came over later like Jonas Valanciunas, Nikola Mirotic, etc.

It seems to me, depending on the year, anywhere from 10% to 40% of first rounders don't make it past 4 years in the league (though I'd say the average is probably closer to 15-20%).  And then we have a variety of reasons of why that happens.

In some cases you have injuries (Jonny Flynn, Greg Oden) or other issues (Royce White, Javaris Crittenton) keeping a player from playing, but on the flip side you have a lot of 10 day contracts keeping a player in the league to even get up to or past 3-4 years at all (DJ White, Terrence Williams, Elliot Williams, Jordan Hamilton, etc.).  Some times a players contract is just allowed to run out and/or the team option isn't picked up (Joe Alexander, Patrick O'Bryant), other times he's shipped around the league as trade filler, and some just happen to have a dad whose a GM.

Again, I know you specifically said players being cut on rookie contracts, so already we may be talking about apples and oranges here.  I'm just saying I would broaden that criteria a little, and a decent amount of teams would have "wasted" a first rounder on a player that they ended up getting little-to-no value from.
I said and meant 3 years, because as you say you are guaranteed 2 and almost always given the 3rd (and in the slightly older days you were guaranteed 3).  But being cut and not being renewed are not anywhere near the same thing.  It is extremely rare for a 1st round pick to not make it to 3 years.  Even terrible players almost always get 3 years.  The fact that Boston has so many players that don't, goes to show Ainge is not nearly the drafter he is made out to be, especially recently, where he has consistently missed.  It is one of the main reasons I wanted him to trade the pick so much last summer.  I just have no confidence in his drafting ability, none at all.  I hope Brown works out, but the shear fact that Ainge took him, doesn't bode well in my mind, especially given where he was projected by virtually everyone else.  Ainge just doesn't have the track record, especially recently, of proving everyone wrong.

If your argument is that Ainge has sucked at drafting guys at the end of the first round, I don't think anyone is going to satisfy you.  Ainge has had a bunch of draft picks that over performed but if you give him no credit for that, the answer is predetermined.

Mike
How many people that Ainge has drafted starting with the 2008 draft have actually overperformed?  How many were so bad they didn't even last their rookie contract?

2008 - Giddens (horrible), Erden (solid, though just 69 games total, but for pick 60 that isn't bad)
2009 - Hudson (same as Erden basically)
2010 - Bradley (overperformed), Harangody (same as Erden basically)
2011 - JJJ (horrible), Moore (overperformed - real nice value for end of 2nd round)
2012 - Sullinger (overperformed, though no longer on team), Melo (underperformed), Joseph (about average)
2013 - Olynyk (in a redraft he probably goes around 15, though ahead of most of the guys taken before him, just behind a lot of guys taken after him - so I will call this about average performance)
2014 - Smart (fairly early, but at this point looks more like the 10th pick than the 6th pick so I'll call that underperformed), Young (underperformed)
2015 - Rozier (probably too early to call Rozier), Hunter (if he gets cut then he underperformed)


In the last 8 drafts (before this past summer), Bradley, Sullinger, and Moore were excellent picks for their draft position, but that is pretty much it (and Moore was on the team for one year and Sullinger didn't get a second contract).  That is a terrible track record and the recent one is all that matters.  It doesn't matter that 10+ years ago he hit on Jefferson, Perkins, Davis, and Rondo because those drafts were so long ago (he also had a few stinkers in there some of which that actually worked out over time though not for Boston like Green and Allen). 

Put it this way, Ainge has had 3 1st round picks in those 8 drafts, play less than 1 full season combined and none of the 3 was a draft and stash player.  That is frankly unbelievable.

Ainge does a great job trading and generating future assets, but he has done a pretty poor job turning those future assets into actual assets and that is what matters far more.
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Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #35 on: August 28, 2016, 07:27:51 PM »

Offline MBunge

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I don't believe late 1st round picks are cut all the time.  Sure they often don't get a second contract, but cut before the original 3 years is actually fairly rare.

What are you talking about, it happens all the time Fab Melo, JuJuan Johnson, JR Giddens, Gerald Green.  Oh wait you're talking about non-Celtics players  ;D

But seriously though, I think it happens enough.  You say 3 years and are specifically talking about being cut, but I would use 4 years, as 1st round rookie contracts are 2 years guaranteed plus 2 one year team options before the player hits restricted free agency.  So going back 10 years, how many 1st round rookies didn't make it past 3-4 years in the league?

2006: 6 guys made it 3 years, 6 guys made it only 4 years
2007: 4 guys made it 3 years or less,5 guys made it only 4 years, 1 guy has never played
2008: 2 guys made it 3 years or less, 1 guy made it only 4 years
2009: 3 guys made it 3 years or less, 2 guys made it only 4 years
2010: 4 guys made it 3 years or less, 3 guys made it only 4 years
2011: 5 guys made it 3 years or less, 0 guys made it only 4 years*
2012: 5 guys made it 3 years or less, 24 guys haven't made it past 4 years! Oh wait I have to stop counting at this point.

*excluding foreigners who came over later like Jonas Valanciunas, Nikola Mirotic, etc.

It seems to me, depending on the year, anywhere from 10% to 40% of first rounders don't make it past 4 years in the league (though I'd say the average is probably closer to 15-20%).  And then we have a variety of reasons of why that happens.

In some cases you have injuries (Jonny Flynn, Greg Oden) or other issues (Royce White, Javaris Crittenton) keeping a player from playing, but on the flip side you have a lot of 10 day contracts keeping a player in the league to even get up to or past 3-4 years at all (DJ White, Terrence Williams, Elliot Williams, Jordan Hamilton, etc.).  Some times a players contract is just allowed to run out and/or the team option isn't picked up (Joe Alexander, Patrick O'Bryant), other times he's shipped around the league as trade filler, and some just happen to have a dad whose a GM.

Again, I know you specifically said players being cut on rookie contracts, so already we may be talking about apples and oranges here.  I'm just saying I would broaden that criteria a little, and a decent amount of teams would have "wasted" a first rounder on a player that they ended up getting little-to-no value from.
I said and meant 3 years, because as you say you are guaranteed 2 and almost always given the 3rd (and in the slightly older days you were guaranteed 3).  But being cut and not being renewed are not anywhere near the same thing.  It is extremely rare for a 1st round pick to not make it to 3 years.  Even terrible players almost always get 3 years.  The fact that Boston has so many players that don't, goes to show Ainge is not nearly the drafter he is made out to be, especially recently, where he has consistently missed.  It is one of the main reasons I wanted him to trade the pick so much last summer.  I just have no confidence in his drafting ability, none at all.  I hope Brown works out, but the shear fact that Ainge took him, doesn't bode well in my mind, especially given where he was projected by virtually everyone else.  Ainge just doesn't have the track record, especially recently, of proving everyone wrong.

If your argument is that Ainge has sucked at drafting guys at the end of the first round, I don't think anyone is going to satisfy you.  Ainge has had a bunch of draft picks that over performed but if you give him no credit for that, the answer is predetermined.

Mike
How many people that Ainge has drafted starting with the 2008 draft have actually overperformed?  How many were so bad they didn't even last their rookie contract?

2008 - Giddens (horrible), Erden (solid, though just 69 games total, but for pick 60 that isn't bad)
2009 - Hudson (same as Erden basically)
2010 - Bradley (overperformed), Harangody (same as Erden basically)
2011 - JJJ (horrible), Moore (overperformed - real nice value for end of 2nd round)
2012 - Sullinger (overperformed, though no longer on team), Melo (underperformed), Joseph (about average)
2013 - Olynyk (in a redraft he probably goes around 15, though ahead of most of the guys taken before him, just behind a lot of guys taken after him - so I will call this about average performance)
2014 - Smart (fairly early, but at this point looks more like the 10th pick than the 6th pick so I'll call that underperformed), Young (underperformed)
2015 - Rozier (probably too early to call Rozier), Hunter (if he gets cut then he underperformed)


In the last 8 drafts (before this past summer), Bradley, Sullinger, and Moore were excellent picks for their draft position, but that is pretty much it (and Moore was on the team for one year and Sullinger didn't get a second contract).  That is a terrible track record and the recent one is all that matters.  It doesn't matter that 10+ years ago he hit on Jefferson, Perkins, Davis, and Rondo because those drafts were so long ago (he also had a few stinkers in there some of which that actually worked out over time though not for Boston like Green and Allen). 

Put it this way, Ainge has had 3 1st round picks in those 8 drafts, play less than 1 full season combined and none of the 3 was a draft and stash player.  That is frankly unbelievable.

Ainge does a great job trading and generating future assets, but he has done a pretty poor job turning those future assets into actual assets and that is what matters far more.

1.  Those good draft picks you aren't counting were ultimately vital to Boston winning a title.

2.  If you are going to cry crocodile tears over picking JR Giddens with the 30th pick in 2008, you are an unreasonable person who won't be satisfied by anything.  Every single good player taken after him was essentially passed on by every other GM in the league.  It's ridiculous to single out Ainge for making the same mistake as everyone else in the league.

3.  By what standard is Ainge to be judged?  How many GMs have a better drafting record in the same period and how many have blown lottery picks and not just missed on players in the 20s?

Mike

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #36 on: August 28, 2016, 08:09:53 PM »

Offline bdm860

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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.




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Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #37 on: August 29, 2016, 01:18:59 AM »

Offline MBunge

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Here's another way to look at it.  The Celtics made the playoffs last year with four Ainge draft picks in the top 8 players on the team, only one of which was a top 10 pick.  Golden State had five of their own picks in their top 8 players, but three of them were top 10 picks.

Mike

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #38 on: August 29, 2016, 01:43:48 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Ainge being willing to get rid of a first round pick before his four years are up is a good thing.  Many teams hang on to such players for too long and waste a roster spot on dead weight.  Ainge is above average in being willing to get rid of bad picks.
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Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #39 on: August 29, 2016, 02:33:43 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Don't really care about Colton Iverson getting waived (#53 pick). 

Latest news:

Quote
Several league sources have indicated that second-year guard R.J. Hunter, third-year forward James Young, 27-year-old wing John Holland, and rookie forward Ben Bentil will compete for the last roster spot. Young and Hunter have guaranteed deals, Bentil has a partial guarantee, and Holland is nonguaranteed

Hunter - #28 pick
Young - #17 pick
Bentil - #51 pick

I know some people were annoyed when we let go of Fab Melo (#22 pick).  Does it upset anyone that we're likely seeing the team cut another 1st rounder (Hunter or Young)?  Or is it just something every team goes through?

Doesn't bother me at all.

Imagine you walk in to a jewellery store, and in front of you they have 30 clear gems of various sizes and cuts.  There are 14 set aside to the left, and another 16 over to the right.  They tell you that there are 7 diamonds in the left group, and 3 diamonds in the right group - the rest are cubic zirconia.  They say you can pick one stone from the left group, and one from the right group - no more. 

The first pick you'll feel decent about, knowing that half of those gems should be good, valuable stones.  The group on the right you don't really have high expectations for - you know that 3/16 is pretty crappy odds, but at the same time you have a free pick, so you're going going to turn it down.

If the stone you pick on the left is a cubic zirconia, I think you'd be pretty disappointing.  You'd have much higher hopes.  But if the stone you picked on the right was a CZ you probably just shrug your shoulders and move on. 

I'm guessing the NBA draft for a GM isn't that different.  You really want a pick in that top 14, and if you choose a guy there who ends up not even making the team, I think you'd be really disappointed. 

Those picks outside3 the top 14, I think you'd picking just for the sake of the gamble.  I don't think you ever EXPECT those picks to become anybody special.  But at the same time you know there's always at least 2 or 3 guys outside of the lottery who end up good players, so if you have the pick you may as well give it a shot.  If they don't work out and you end up cutting them after a year, so be it.


I don't think Danny's done so bad.  I think he picked out a really nice diamond in Avery Bradley.  I think he might have another one in Terry Rozier.  He picked out two others who could one day prove to be diamonds in Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk - jury is still out on those. 

The ones that don't work out, that's life.  You knew they probably weren't going to anyway, but you had a free pick and they looked pretty shiny, so you took a gamble on it.

Of course if you have 3 or 4 picks out of that right section, your odds of getting a diamond are improved - hence why Danny loves having those extra picks, even if there's little sense in using them all

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #40 on: August 29, 2016, 08:11:21 AM »

Online Moranis

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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2016, 08:54:33 AM by Moranis »
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Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #41 on: August 29, 2016, 10:07:54 AM »

Offline MBunge

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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #42 on: August 29, 2016, 10:27:27 AM »

Online Moranis

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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.

Once again, if you are going to pitch a fit over Ainge blowing the 30th and 27th picks in Giddens and JJJ, you are being unreasonable.

Mike
It isn't unreasonable to expect a GM to not totally bomb multiple first round picks.  If it is one or two, ok, but it is Giddens (38), JJJ (36), and Melo (6).  Plus, maybe Young and Hunter, though at least those two have managed a complete season worth of games combined at 60 and 36 respectively. And it isn't just that he missed on those guys, in some ways it is who went after them. 

Take Giddens, the 30th pick.  31st pick Nikola Pekovic, 34 Mario Chalmers, 35 DeAndre Jordan (who many on this board wanted to draft), 36 Omer Asik, 37 Luc Mbah a Moute.  Now 32 Walter Sharpe and 33 Joey Dorsey weren't exactly winners, but Dorsey at least made it 4 years and 130 games. 

How about JJJ, taken with the 27th pick.  The last three picks of the 1st round were in order Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, and Jimmy Butler.  Bojan Bogdanovic was the 1st player taken in the 2nd round who would have been a fine draft and stash player.

Now 2012 and Melo at least there were no studs in the near vicinity of Melo, though John Jenkins was the very next pick and Miles Plumlee was 4 picks after Melo.  Of course the best player taken after Melo is Crowder who Ainge was able to smartly acquire.

You see I have no issue with Ainge's trades.  In fact, I think he is an A+ GM when it comes to trades.  He sometimes misses, but by and large his trades have been superb.  Trading guys at their peak value and acquiring significant future assets.  It is the drafting where Ainge has consistently struggled, missing a lot and not even mixing in the homeruns that he used to hit.  You can live with Marcus Banks because he also got Kendrick Perkins.  You can live with Gerald Green flaming out because the prior draft he picked up Al Jefferson, Delonte West, and Tony Allen and he got Ryan Gomes in the 2nd round.  But when you haven't been hitting the homeruns (Bradley is a very nice player, but even that selection was 7 drafts ago), it is very hard to overlook the strikeouts on 3 pitches all looking. 
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #43 on: August 29, 2016, 10:34:26 AM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.
very nice list, so a tp for homework.

but what about the other GMs in the nba? do they have a far superior record wherein they draft and keep 10%, 20%, or more of their late first round, second round picks?

we cant compare ainge's record without the context of other teams GMs. for all we know, this may be a very strong record given the locations of most of these picks.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/houston-barber/where-are-all-the-second-_b_9722192.html

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

EDIT: based upon this celticsblog article, over a 20 year period roughly 13% of second round picks turned into credible nba players.

http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/5/27/8672115/a-look-at-the-last-20-years-of-second-round-nba-draft-picks
« Last Edit: August 29, 2016, 11:36:11 AM by hwangjini_1 »
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Re: Anyone upset about the wasted assets?
« Reply #44 on: August 29, 2016, 11:14:36 AM »

Online Moranis

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Looks fairly regular to me, seems to happen to multiple players in most draft classes.

2003 #16 pick - Troy Bell, waived in 2nd year
2003# 26 pick, Ndudi Ebi, waived in 3rd year
2004 #10 pick - Luke Jackson, waived in 3rd year
2005 #12 pick - Yaroslav Jorolev, 3rd year option not picked up
2005 #29 pick - Wayne Simien, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #9 pick - Patrick O'Bryant, 3rd year option not picked up
2006 #10 pick - Mouhamed Sene, waived in 3rd year
2006 #15 pick - Cedric Simmons, waived in 3rd year
2006 #19 pick - Quincy Douby, waived in 3rd year
2006 #22 pick - Marcus Williams,  waived in 3rd year
2007 #17 pick - Sean Williams, waived in 3rd year
2007 #25 pick - Morris Almond, 3rd year option not picked up
2007 #29 pick - Alando Tucker, waived in 3rd year
2008 #8 pick - Joe Alexander, 3rd year option not picked up
2009 #11 pick - Terrence Williams, waived in 3rd year
2009 #22 pick - Victor Claver, waived in 3rd year
2009 #30 pick - Christian Eyenga, waived in 3rd year
2010 #21 pick - Craig Brackins, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #24 pick - Damion James, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #25 pick - Dominique Jones, waived in 3rd year
2010 #29 pick - Daniel Orton, 3rd year option not picked up
2010 #30 pick - Lazar Hayward, waived in 3rd year
2011 #11 pick - Jimmer Fredette, waived in 3rd year
2011 #21 pick - Nolan Smith, 3rd year option not picked up
2012 #13 pick - Kendall Marshall, waived in 2nd year
2012 #27 pick - Arnett Moultrie, waived in 3rd year
2012 #29 pick - Marcus Teague, waived in 3rd year
2013 #1 pick - Anthony Bennett, waived in 3rd year
2013 #30 pick - Nemanja Nedovic, waived in 2nd year

Note on the guys waived, some were waived before the start of the season, some were waived during the season.  I did not distinguish between the two, as either way they still get their full guaranteed money for that year, and it really comes down to rosters spots.  A team with a full roster waives the guy before the start of the season, and team with roster spots keeps the guy until after the trade deadline.  So for instance if James Young gets waived tomorrow or after the trade deadline, I would have put waived in 3rd year as he's still getting that full 3rd year money.

And that's not an all inclusive list as I tried not to include Celtics or major injuries (Oden) or outstanding, unusual circumstances like Julius Hodge getting shot, or the Royce White or Javaris Crittenton situations.
By your math, since 2008 16 other 1st round picks haven't made it 3 years.  During that time Ainge has badly missed on 3 and that doesn't even count Young and Hunter both of whom could be cut before the end of 3 years.  Boston has a much higher percentage of misses than average (which is about 2 per year for the entire league).  Ainge's drafting has been very bad in the last 10 years or so.  It really is indefensible how bad it has been.
very nice list, so a tp for homework.

but what about the other GMs in the nba? do they have a far superior record wherein they draft and keep 10%, 20%, or more of their late first round, second round picks?

we cant compare ainge's record without the context of other teams GMs. for all we know, this may be a very strong record given the locations of most of these picks.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/houston-barber/where-are-all-the-second-_b_9722192.html

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm
2nd round draft picks are entirely different animals than 1st round draft picks.  You can't really include them in any sort of meaningful analysis for that reason unless the player is a homerun.  It is fairly common and typical to draft a 2nd rounder that never plays in the league. Doing so doesn't set you apart unless you consistently have picks in the 30's and those picks consistently don't play in the league (then it is bad, though not as bad as a late 1st not cutting it).  What does matter with 2nd round picks is getting a guy like Draymond Green, DeAndre Jordan, or Jae Crowder.  If you are consistently or at least more than normal getting starter level (or better) level players from the 2nd round then you should be credited for that, but that isn't Ainge either.  He does ok in the 2nd round, even recently, but has no homeruns so his 2nd round drafting record really doesn't come into play.  I've been focused on his 1st round drafting record which has been atrocious since the 2008 draft.  And let's be clear, since that draft Boston has not won a title, has been to the Finals once, ECF once, and hasn't won a playoff series since 5 seasons ago (and is 4-12 in those 4 recent seasons in the playoffs).  So you can't even claim, well Boston is winning titles so who cares if Ainge missed in the draft.  And the other side of that is, you can't even claim Ainge was taking flyers on raw players because the team was good.  Giddens and Johnson were 4 year starters in college.  They were supposed to be guys that could come in and compete and help the team.  At least with Melo, you understand the risk on that pick.  He was so raw that if it worked, he could have been a great defender.  Giddens and Johnson were not that type of player, they were supposed to guys to come in and help a title contending team and that just didn't happen.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip