Author Topic: Are you more excited about seeing Brown than you were about seeing Marcus...  (Read 39243 times)

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Offline LarBrd33

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 Here's the problem. If we actually did think he wouldn't be any better than Tony Allen, I say we still draft him.

 I agree we expected him to be better, but you can't knock him for drafting Tony Allen 2.0

 The fact is there was no better choice at the sixth spot in that horrible draft. Yeah I said Horrible. Wiggins and Parker were the two big names and that remains true.

 It was Randle or Smart and we chose right, especially for our needs.

 Oklahoma state producing some fine defenders though.

 Per 40 Stats College sophmore year.

 Tony Allen 20.3 ppg 7rpg 4apg 2.6 spg
                     .504% .297% .675%

        Smart. 22ppg 7.2rpg 5.8apg 3.5spg
                     .422% .299% .728%

 Same college, both sophomores, very comparable numbers with Tony having a bug advantage with Fg% probably because he's a quicker and better overall athlete than Marcus.

 Same crappy 3p%, and Smart is the slightly better defender. If the Celtics new they were getting Tony Allen all over again, I say they were fine with that plain and simple.

 Even with the benefit oh Heinsight the only guys in tge discussion at #6 in the lottery were.

 #7 Randle
 #8 Stuaskas
 #9 Vonleh
 #10 Payton
 #11 Doug Mcbuckets
 #12 Saric
 #13 Lavine

 So you tell me LB, or anyone else, who the heck do you want out if that list.
I'm still fine with the pick even though Smart right now is a poor man's Tony Allen.  He's still really young.  I'm hopeful he makes a leap next year.    It's true I wanted Randle over him, but I wasn't all that upset about the pick given our roster construction at the time.  And I'm not all that upset about the pick now.  Randle has only one season under his belt and there's a chance he doesn't make significant improvements either. 

The main point was that expectations for Smart were pretty high back in 2014.  Tony Allen was seen as a worst-case scenario... and it still is.   Most people saw him as having all-star potential.  He was believed to be an NBA-ready player who would make an impact on both ends immediately despite weak shooting in College.    He's been disappointing so far, but it's still early. 

Expectations are lower for Jaylen Brown than they were from Smart.  In-part, because he's seen as a lesser prospect than Smart was.  In-part, because fans have already been burned by Smart and have lowered expectations for Jaylen as a result.   Nobody anticipates Jaylen starting anytime next year.   For the most part, people expect that he's a long-term project that hopefully makes some defensive contributions off the bench.  This should be a top team in the East without relying on Brown so he really doesn't have any pressure to perform.  When Smart entered, he was thought to be the guy who was going to take the reigns from Rondo as "the man".  Despite expectations being lower for Brown, many of us (myself included) are more excited about Jaylen Brown than we were about Smart in 2014 or Smart in 2015.   Jaylen is more mysterious.  His age adds to his allure.  His physical attributes and potential skillset are intriguing.  Yeah, he might end up more Kedrick Brown/Gerald Green than Jimmy Butler/Tracy McGrady, but right now I'm super excited to watch what he can develop into.   Despite how either Smart or Brown were looked at by experts, I have higher hopes for the raw mystery box that is Jaylen Brown than I was for the 6'4 defensive roleplaying bricklayer that people thought could develop into a star back in 2014.
Yeah but just by looking at the numbers don't you think the experts are kind of stupid for thinking that smart was going to be so much better than Tony Allen.
Well... yes...  which is why tankcity so kindly points out that I was expressing concern before Smart's rookie season that he might peak out as Tony Allen... and why I'm admitting that I'm more excited about Jaylen Brown in 2016 than I ever was in 2014 about Smart - primarily because I was never really as sold on expert predictions that Smart was going to be the next Tyreke Evans and be "the man" right out of the gate.   But as tankcity kindly points out, people were labeling me a troll for comparing Smart to Tony Allen back then (typical).  WHy?  Because the vast majority of experts and people on this forum had far, far greater expectations of Marcus SMart than him developing into the next Tony Allen.   You don't take the next Tony Allen 6th in a loaded draft.   He was widely believed to have star potential.  He still might.

That's why it's a bit concerning that we're two years into Smart's career and he's not yet as good as Tony Allen was in his prime.  We still have far greater hopes for Smart than that.  I really hope he makes a leap next year. 

And for those who are confused... yes, I'm aware you watched Tony Allen when he played on the Celtics.  From 2011-2016, Allen was a 5x All-Defense player.  His peak happened AFTER he left the Celtics, so I don't blame anyone here for being unfamiliar with it.   It would be like saying, "Jaylen Brown might be the next Joe Johnson" and someone here saying "Joe Johnson sucks!  He couldn't stay as a starter for us!"...

Tony Allen's peak:   All-Defense 1st team
Marcus Smart:  No All-Defense selection

Tony Allen career:  48% FG/28% 3P
Smart last year:  35% FG/25% 3P

We could waste more time debating if Smart is near Tony Allen's defensive role player peak right now, but it's honestly pretty depressing.  Despite my concerns at the time, most here had far greater expectations for Smart   We all hope that Smart makes a major leap past Tony Allen territory next year and makes the comp irrelevant. 

So yeah, I'm more excited about Jaylen Brown than I was about Smart despite the fact most experts saw Smart as a superior prospect than what they see Brown as.  I worried that Smart would do what he's ended up doing.   With Brown, I have some worries as well, but he's raw and young enough that I'm just excited about the unknown.
 
How dare you disrespect the holy Chad Ford Tier System? Blasphemy.

i wish some one had done a statistical analysis on the difference between fords 3 and 4th tiers players and 4th and 5th tiers. I am curious if it would approach statistical significance and what strength.
So what you're really asking is if scouts/GM's are arbitrarily deciding which players they think have "superstar" potential (Towns), all-star potential (Smart) or otherwise (Brown). 

There were only a handful of players since 2000 that I remember being labelled "potential superstars'.   Yao Ming was definitely one of them and he never totally reached that level.  LeBron was one of them.  Kevin Durant and Greg Oden got the label.  Since Ford's tier articles started, he's had the following players listed as "potential superstars" per scouts/GMs:   Anthony Davis, John Wall, Blake Griffin, Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Karl Towns, Ben Simmons

Emphasis on the word "potential".  That's how those guys were seen prior to joining the league.  Super high ceilings with varied results thus far.

Several others got the label "all-star potential" (tier 2):   Kyrie Irving, Derrick Williams, Harrison Barnes, Bradley Beal, Michael-Kidd Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson, Dante Exum, Aaron Gordon, Marcus Smart, Julius Randle, Dario Saric, Noah Vonleh, Jahlil Okafor, Kristaps Porzingus, Emmanuel Mudiay, D'Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram

There's some misses in there.  Emphasis on the word "Potential".   That's how those guys were seen prior to joining the league.  They were believed to project into all-stars.  Obviously, it's not an exact science.  Players get injured.  Players never develop.  Players lack motivation.  Other players exceed expectations and make surprising leaps in their games.  Sometimes scouts/GM's are just flat out wrong and take a bust high or see a guy like Rudy Gobert go 27th.  Nobody is denying that.   Only a complete idiot would think that the draft order is a perfect representation of how the players will rank long-term.   Some of the above players unsurprisingly failed to pan out.   Many of the guys who didn't get the "future superstar" or "future allstar" label unsurprisingly managed to get there regardless.   

Our hope is that Jaylen Brown ends up one of those players that develops into a "future allstar" despite not getting that label.  It's a fine thing to hope for.  As we all are aware, prospects of his caliber occasionally surpass expectations.  Some folks even disagree with the consensus (I remember a minority of fans being really mad Giannis fell all the way to #15).  That's all fine and dandy.  Scouts/GM's can be wrong.  Fans can be right. 

You're attacking the draft in general.  You seem disappointed that someone like Derrick Williams went #2 in the draft and didn't turn into a star as scouts/GMs believed he'd be.   I assure you, the team that selected him 2nd is even more disappointed.    You seem hurt and betrayed that someone like Andre Drummond could end up an all-star despite being selected all the way at 9th, being passed up by 8 teams who didn't see him as having as much potential as someone like Dion Waiters and Thomas Robinson.   I'm with you on that... I was hoping we'd trade for Detroit's pick on draft night so we could select Drummond. 

But you're trying to suggest this is a Chad Ford problem.  And that's wrong.   Chad Ford's draft tiers reflect how teams feel about these prospects prior the draft.   Ford didn't force anyone to take Derrick Williams 2nd.  Ford didn't force 8 teams to pass on Drummond.  It's not Chad Ford's fault that reportedly every team picking 3-8 was exploring trading down or out of a draft range believed to be weak.  It makes no sense to blame Chad Ford for this.  Retroactively looking at how these guys panned out misses the point entirely.   This thread is asking how we felt about Marcus Smart in the past.  It's not about how we feel about Marcus Smart now.   Smart was labelled a future allstar.  That's why he was taken 6th.  Don't blame Chad Ford if Marcus Smart busts.  That's not his fault.

umm you really flew off in an irrelevant direction on that. I was/am wondering if data would suggest that Chad Ford's tiers are actually a real thing between the 4th and 5th tier and the 3rd and 4th tier. That is what I wrote.

You decided you needed to go off on a long spiel about the 1st and 2nd tiers in relationship to that including players like Drummond, Waiter and Thomas Robinson? I am assuming none of those guys were in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th tiers so your comment really could not have been less relevant.

Slow down and read a little better (and type less). You can also definitely not say all 18k of your posts is a dinger cause this post was clearly a 6-4-3 double play.
I think a more important question would be whether or not there's any correlation between defensive intensity and lack of offensive production.   Do we have data to support aggressive defensive effort makes a player's field goal percentages lower?

What other irrelevant things should we talk about in this thread?

Sneak peak: Are tiers really things, or a fancy way of throwing darts: 2014

In 2014 Chad Ford had just 3 players that his system led to land in the vaunted tier 3. This tier is reserved for players that project to be as NBA starters in their careers. These 3 players were unanimous selections for this tier:

Gary Harris
Doug McDermott
Nik Stauskas

Review: As they enter the 3rd year of their career it appears that Stauskas will not be a longterm starter as he struggled to maintain a starting position on a historically bad 76ers team with his coach publicly calling out his defensive effort. Stauskas struggled with his shot all year making his monikor "sauce castillo" seem like some kind of sick joke.

Gary Harris on the other hand does project as a starter after starting 76 games and averaging 12 points a game in his sophmore year.

Doug McDermott, while less comically awful than Stauskas during his sophmore campaign, has shown the defensive limitations many feared in college and seems to project as a long term bench player.

For this tier it appears Ford will get 1 out of 3 correct. In other words, worse than a drunk flipping a coin.

Tomorrow we look at Tier 4: These players project as either starters or top-tier rotation players.
But how did they really turn out? Here is a hint: James Young is not a rotation player.
We get it... you think the draft is a crap shoot.  In which case, Jaylen Brown with the #3 pick might end up being a total bust while some scrub taken at the end of the 1st round might end up a star.   

If Furkan Korkmaz ends up 10x the player Jaylen Brown does, are you going to blame Chad Ford for putting Furkan at a tier well below Brown... or are you going to blame the wide consensus of draft experts and 25 NBA teams that passed on Furkan?   Yeah, I guess it makes the most sense to blame Chad Ford, right Clay?

I guess we should have traded Jaylen (a tier 3/4 prospect) for someone projected in tiers 5 or 6.   It's a shame that Marcus Smart (a tier 2 prospect) looks like a tier 4 prospect after the fact.   #MondayMorningQuarterback
it is not just these 3. They are all really bad when you get into tier 3 and tier 4. They are worse than if you just through darts at a board.
Clay, we are having two conversations that aren't related to each other.   If three years from now Jaylen is looking like a James Young level bust while Furkan Korkmaz (#26 pick) is tearing up the league, will your big takeaway be to criticize Ford's Draft tier article?   The draft tier article accurately reflects how scouts/GM's feel about Furkan BEFORE he was drafted.   Whether or not Furkan ends up a superstar has nothing to do with the point being made here.   Expectations are low for Furkan.   Scouts believe expectations are low for him.   25 teams apparently had low expectations for Furkan.   Ford's draft tier article reflect that consensus.   

I brought up Ford's draft tier article as a reference for how scouts/GM's saw Marcus Smart 2 years ago.   I never intended to use it as the word of god for how those players will pan out.  Nobody is trying to claim that pre-draft projections or the actual draft order predicts the future.

My point:  Smart was widely seen as a possible all-star prospect 2 years ago (we agree).  Jaylen Brown isn't widely seen as a possible all-star prospect (we agree)

Your point:  Mock drafts can't predict the future (we agree).  The draft doesn't predict the future (we agree).

We both are in agreement on both.  There's no need for us to talk about it further.  We're on the same page.

My point is relevant to this topic, because it's talking about how people felt about Smart 1-2 years ago vs how people feel about Jaylen right now.

Your point really has nothing to do with this topic.  Yes, mock drafts don't predict the future.  Congrats.  You're stating the obvious.
my point is that Chad ford draft tiers are demonstrably worse that mock drafts. That he has a supernatural ability to get things wrong.
Cool.  High five. 

Ford's tier article comes out like 2 days before the draft and as far as I can tell, does a pretty good job of figuring out which range each prospect is going in.    Feel free to share a source that does a better job of predicting how the draft order will shake out.  Then remind me again 10 months from now when it's relevant to my interests. 

Offline celticsclay

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 Here's the problem. If we actually did think he wouldn't be any better than Tony Allen, I say we still draft him.

 I agree we expected him to be better, but you can't knock him for drafting Tony Allen 2.0

 The fact is there was no better choice at the sixth spot in that horrible draft. Yeah I said Horrible. Wiggins and Parker were the two big names and that remains true.

 It was Randle or Smart and we chose right, especially for our needs.

 Oklahoma state producing some fine defenders though.

 Per 40 Stats College sophmore year.

 Tony Allen 20.3 ppg 7rpg 4apg 2.6 spg
                     .504% .297% .675%

        Smart. 22ppg 7.2rpg 5.8apg 3.5spg
                     .422% .299% .728%

 Same college, both sophomores, very comparable numbers with Tony having a bug advantage with Fg% probably because he's a quicker and better overall athlete than Marcus.

 Same crappy 3p%, and Smart is the slightly better defender. If the Celtics new they were getting Tony Allen all over again, I say they were fine with that plain and simple.

 Even with the benefit oh Heinsight the only guys in tge discussion at #6 in the lottery were.

 #7 Randle
 #8 Stuaskas
 #9 Vonleh
 #10 Payton
 #11 Doug Mcbuckets
 #12 Saric
 #13 Lavine

 So you tell me LB, or anyone else, who the heck do you want out if that list.
I'm still fine with the pick even though Smart right now is a poor man's Tony Allen.  He's still really young.  I'm hopeful he makes a leap next year.    It's true I wanted Randle over him, but I wasn't all that upset about the pick given our roster construction at the time.  And I'm not all that upset about the pick now.  Randle has only one season under his belt and there's a chance he doesn't make significant improvements either. 

The main point was that expectations for Smart were pretty high back in 2014.  Tony Allen was seen as a worst-case scenario... and it still is.   Most people saw him as having all-star potential.  He was believed to be an NBA-ready player who would make an impact on both ends immediately despite weak shooting in College.    He's been disappointing so far, but it's still early. 

Expectations are lower for Jaylen Brown than they were from Smart.  In-part, because he's seen as a lesser prospect than Smart was.  In-part, because fans have already been burned by Smart and have lowered expectations for Jaylen as a result.   Nobody anticipates Jaylen starting anytime next year.   For the most part, people expect that he's a long-term project that hopefully makes some defensive contributions off the bench.  This should be a top team in the East without relying on Brown so he really doesn't have any pressure to perform.  When Smart entered, he was thought to be the guy who was going to take the reigns from Rondo as "the man".  Despite expectations being lower for Brown, many of us (myself included) are more excited about Jaylen Brown than we were about Smart in 2014 or Smart in 2015.   Jaylen is more mysterious.  His age adds to his allure.  His physical attributes and potential skillset are intriguing.  Yeah, he might end up more Kedrick Brown/Gerald Green than Jimmy Butler/Tracy McGrady, but right now I'm super excited to watch what he can develop into.   Despite how either Smart or Brown were looked at by experts, I have higher hopes for the raw mystery box that is Jaylen Brown than I was for the 6'4 defensive roleplaying bricklayer that people thought could develop into a star back in 2014.
Yeah but just by looking at the numbers don't you think the experts are kind of stupid for thinking that smart was going to be so much better than Tony Allen.
Well... yes...  which is why tankcity so kindly points out that I was expressing concern before Smart's rookie season that he might peak out as Tony Allen... and why I'm admitting that I'm more excited about Jaylen Brown in 2016 than I ever was in 2014 about Smart - primarily because I was never really as sold on expert predictions that Smart was going to be the next Tyreke Evans and be "the man" right out of the gate.   But as tankcity kindly points out, people were labeling me a troll for comparing Smart to Tony Allen back then (typical).  WHy?  Because the vast majority of experts and people on this forum had far, far greater expectations of Marcus SMart than him developing into the next Tony Allen.   You don't take the next Tony Allen 6th in a loaded draft.   He was widely believed to have star potential.  He still might.

That's why it's a bit concerning that we're two years into Smart's career and he's not yet as good as Tony Allen was in his prime.  We still have far greater hopes for Smart than that.  I really hope he makes a leap next year. 

And for those who are confused... yes, I'm aware you watched Tony Allen when he played on the Celtics.  From 2011-2016, Allen was a 5x All-Defense player.  His peak happened AFTER he left the Celtics, so I don't blame anyone here for being unfamiliar with it.   It would be like saying, "Jaylen Brown might be the next Joe Johnson" and someone here saying "Joe Johnson sucks!  He couldn't stay as a starter for us!"...

Tony Allen's peak:   All-Defense 1st team
Marcus Smart:  No All-Defense selection

Tony Allen career:  48% FG/28% 3P
Smart last year:  35% FG/25% 3P

We could waste more time debating if Smart is near Tony Allen's defensive role player peak right now, but it's honestly pretty depressing.  Despite my concerns at the time, most here had far greater expectations for Smart   We all hope that Smart makes a major leap past Tony Allen territory next year and makes the comp irrelevant. 

So yeah, I'm more excited about Jaylen Brown than I was about Smart despite the fact most experts saw Smart as a superior prospect than what they see Brown as.  I worried that Smart would do what he's ended up doing.   With Brown, I have some worries as well, but he's raw and young enough that I'm just excited about the unknown.
 
How dare you disrespect the holy Chad Ford Tier System? Blasphemy.

i wish some one had done a statistical analysis on the difference between fords 3 and 4th tiers players and 4th and 5th tiers. I am curious if it would approach statistical significance and what strength.
So what you're really asking is if scouts/GM's are arbitrarily deciding which players they think have "superstar" potential (Towns), all-star potential (Smart) or otherwise (Brown). 

There were only a handful of players since 2000 that I remember being labelled "potential superstars'.   Yao Ming was definitely one of them and he never totally reached that level.  LeBron was one of them.  Kevin Durant and Greg Oden got the label.  Since Ford's tier articles started, he's had the following players listed as "potential superstars" per scouts/GMs:   Anthony Davis, John Wall, Blake Griffin, Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Karl Towns, Ben Simmons

Emphasis on the word "potential".  That's how those guys were seen prior to joining the league.  Super high ceilings with varied results thus far.

Several others got the label "all-star potential" (tier 2):   Kyrie Irving, Derrick Williams, Harrison Barnes, Bradley Beal, Michael-Kidd Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson, Dante Exum, Aaron Gordon, Marcus Smart, Julius Randle, Dario Saric, Noah Vonleh, Jahlil Okafor, Kristaps Porzingus, Emmanuel Mudiay, D'Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram

There's some misses in there.  Emphasis on the word "Potential".   That's how those guys were seen prior to joining the league.  They were believed to project into all-stars.  Obviously, it's not an exact science.  Players get injured.  Players never develop.  Players lack motivation.  Other players exceed expectations and make surprising leaps in their games.  Sometimes scouts/GM's are just flat out wrong and take a bust high or see a guy like Rudy Gobert go 27th.  Nobody is denying that.   Only a complete idiot would think that the draft order is a perfect representation of how the players will rank long-term.   Some of the above players unsurprisingly failed to pan out.   Many of the guys who didn't get the "future superstar" or "future allstar" label unsurprisingly managed to get there regardless.   

Our hope is that Jaylen Brown ends up one of those players that develops into a "future allstar" despite not getting that label.  It's a fine thing to hope for.  As we all are aware, prospects of his caliber occasionally surpass expectations.  Some folks even disagree with the consensus (I remember a minority of fans being really mad Giannis fell all the way to #15).  That's all fine and dandy.  Scouts/GM's can be wrong.  Fans can be right. 

You're attacking the draft in general.  You seem disappointed that someone like Derrick Williams went #2 in the draft and didn't turn into a star as scouts/GMs believed he'd be.   I assure you, the team that selected him 2nd is even more disappointed.    You seem hurt and betrayed that someone like Andre Drummond could end up an all-star despite being selected all the way at 9th, being passed up by 8 teams who didn't see him as having as much potential as someone like Dion Waiters and Thomas Robinson.   I'm with you on that... I was hoping we'd trade for Detroit's pick on draft night so we could select Drummond. 

But you're trying to suggest this is a Chad Ford problem.  And that's wrong.   Chad Ford's draft tiers reflect how teams feel about these prospects prior the draft.   Ford didn't force anyone to take Derrick Williams 2nd.  Ford didn't force 8 teams to pass on Drummond.  It's not Chad Ford's fault that reportedly every team picking 3-8 was exploring trading down or out of a draft range believed to be weak.  It makes no sense to blame Chad Ford for this.  Retroactively looking at how these guys panned out misses the point entirely.   This thread is asking how we felt about Marcus Smart in the past.  It's not about how we feel about Marcus Smart now.   Smart was labelled a future allstar.  That's why he was taken 6th.  Don't blame Chad Ford if Marcus Smart busts.  That's not his fault.

umm you really flew off in an irrelevant direction on that. I was/am wondering if data would suggest that Chad Ford's tiers are actually a real thing between the 4th and 5th tier and the 3rd and 4th tier. That is what I wrote.

You decided you needed to go off on a long spiel about the 1st and 2nd tiers in relationship to that including players like Drummond, Waiter and Thomas Robinson? I am assuming none of those guys were in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th tiers so your comment really could not have been less relevant.

Slow down and read a little better (and type less). You can also definitely not say all 18k of your posts is a dinger cause this post was clearly a 6-4-3 double play.
I think a more important question would be whether or not there's any correlation between defensive intensity and lack of offensive production.   Do we have data to support aggressive defensive effort makes a player's field goal percentages lower?

What other irrelevant things should we talk about in this thread?

Sneak peak: Are tiers really things, or a fancy way of throwing darts: 2014

In 2014 Chad Ford had just 3 players that his system led to land in the vaunted tier 3. This tier is reserved for players that project to be as NBA starters in their careers. These 3 players were unanimous selections for this tier:

Gary Harris
Doug McDermott
Nik Stauskas

Review: As they enter the 3rd year of their career it appears that Stauskas will not be a longterm starter as he struggled to maintain a starting position on a historically bad 76ers team with his coach publicly calling out his defensive effort. Stauskas struggled with his shot all year making his monikor "sauce castillo" seem like some kind of sick joke.

Gary Harris on the other hand does project as a starter after starting 76 games and averaging 12 points a game in his sophmore year.

Doug McDermott, while less comically awful than Stauskas during his sophmore campaign, has shown the defensive limitations many feared in college and seems to project as a long term bench player.

For this tier it appears Ford will get 1 out of 3 correct. In other words, worse than a drunk flipping a coin.

Tomorrow we look at Tier 4: These players project as either starters or top-tier rotation players.
But how did they really turn out? Here is a hint: James Young is not a rotation player.
We get it... you think the draft is a crap shoot.  In which case, Jaylen Brown with the #3 pick might end up being a total bust while some scrub taken at the end of the 1st round might end up a star.   

If Furkan Korkmaz ends up 10x the player Jaylen Brown does, are you going to blame Chad Ford for putting Furkan at a tier well below Brown... or are you going to blame the wide consensus of draft experts and 25 NBA teams that passed on Furkan?   Yeah, I guess it makes the most sense to blame Chad Ford, right Clay?

I guess we should have traded Jaylen (a tier 3/4 prospect) for someone projected in tiers 5 or 6.   It's a shame that Marcus Smart (a tier 2 prospect) looks like a tier 4 prospect after the fact.   #MondayMorningQuarterback
it is not just these 3. They are all really bad when you get into tier 3 and tier 4. They are worse than if you just through darts at a board.
Clay, we are having two conversations that aren't related to each other.   If three years from now Jaylen is looking like a James Young level bust while Furkan Korkmaz (#26 pick) is tearing up the league, will your big takeaway be to criticize Ford's Draft tier article?   The draft tier article accurately reflects how scouts/GM's feel about Furkan BEFORE he was drafted.   Whether or not Furkan ends up a superstar has nothing to do with the point being made here.   Expectations are low for Furkan.   Scouts believe expectations are low for him.   25 teams apparently had low expectations for Furkan.   Ford's draft tier article reflect that consensus.   

I brought up Ford's draft tier article as a reference for how scouts/GM's saw Marcus Smart 2 years ago.   I never intended to use it as the word of god for how those players will pan out.  Nobody is trying to claim that pre-draft projections or the actual draft order predicts the future.

My point:  Smart was widely seen as a possible all-star prospect 2 years ago (we agree).  Jaylen Brown isn't widely seen as a possible all-star prospect (we agree)

Your point:  Mock drafts can't predict the future (we agree).  The draft doesn't predict the future (we agree).

We both are in agreement on both.  There's no need for us to talk about it further.  We're on the same page.

My point is relevant to this topic, because it's talking about how people felt about Smart 1-2 years ago vs how people feel about Jaylen right now.

Your point really has nothing to do with this topic.  Yes, mock drafts don't predict the future.  Congrats.  You're stating the obvious.
my point is that Chad ford draft tiers are demonstrably worse that mock drafts. That he has a supernatural ability to get things wrong.
Cool.  High five. 

Ford's tier article comes out like 2 days before the draft and as far as I can tell, does a pretty good job of figuring out which range each prospect is going in.    Feel free to share a source that does a better job of predicting how the draft order will shake out.  Then remind me again 10 months from now when it's relevant to my interests.
they have these squids in cages at the local aquarium by my house. Each year they throw some eel meat to the top of their cage and open it up the squids to eat. Attached to each squid is the name of a prospect in the draft. The squids are then marked in the order they are able to consume the eal and that is their draft slot. 4 of the last 5 years these squids have out performed fords tiers. The 5th year a small boy got into the tank and was attacked by the squids mucking up the order. You can bet I'll be there bright and early next May for annual eel feed to see how it goes in year 6. There are mumblings they may even add corn dogs and cans of Olympia beer next year for two bucks!

Offline LarBrd33

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 Here's the problem. If we actually did think he wouldn't be any better than Tony Allen, I say we still draft him.

 I agree we expected him to be better, but you can't knock him for drafting Tony Allen 2.0

 The fact is there was no better choice at the sixth spot in that horrible draft. Yeah I said Horrible. Wiggins and Parker were the two big names and that remains true.

 It was Randle or Smart and we chose right, especially for our needs.

 Oklahoma state producing some fine defenders though.

 Per 40 Stats College sophmore year.

 Tony Allen 20.3 ppg 7rpg 4apg 2.6 spg
                     .504% .297% .675%

        Smart. 22ppg 7.2rpg 5.8apg 3.5spg
                     .422% .299% .728%

 Same college, both sophomores, very comparable numbers with Tony having a bug advantage with Fg% probably because he's a quicker and better overall athlete than Marcus.

 Same crappy 3p%, and Smart is the slightly better defender. If the Celtics new they were getting Tony Allen all over again, I say they were fine with that plain and simple.

 Even with the benefit oh Heinsight the only guys in tge discussion at #6 in the lottery were.

 #7 Randle
 #8 Stuaskas
 #9 Vonleh
 #10 Payton
 #11 Doug Mcbuckets
 #12 Saric
 #13 Lavine

 So you tell me LB, or anyone else, who the heck do you want out if that list.
I'm still fine with the pick even though Smart right now is a poor man's Tony Allen.  He's still really young.  I'm hopeful he makes a leap next year.    It's true I wanted Randle over him, but I wasn't all that upset about the pick given our roster construction at the time.  And I'm not all that upset about the pick now.  Randle has only one season under his belt and there's a chance he doesn't make significant improvements either. 

The main point was that expectations for Smart were pretty high back in 2014.  Tony Allen was seen as a worst-case scenario... and it still is.   Most people saw him as having all-star potential.  He was believed to be an NBA-ready player who would make an impact on both ends immediately despite weak shooting in College.    He's been disappointing so far, but it's still early. 

Expectations are lower for Jaylen Brown than they were from Smart.  In-part, because he's seen as a lesser prospect than Smart was.  In-part, because fans have already been burned by Smart and have lowered expectations for Jaylen as a result.   Nobody anticipates Jaylen starting anytime next year.   For the most part, people expect that he's a long-term project that hopefully makes some defensive contributions off the bench.  This should be a top team in the East without relying on Brown so he really doesn't have any pressure to perform.  When Smart entered, he was thought to be the guy who was going to take the reigns from Rondo as "the man".  Despite expectations being lower for Brown, many of us (myself included) are more excited about Jaylen Brown than we were about Smart in 2014 or Smart in 2015.   Jaylen is more mysterious.  His age adds to his allure.  His physical attributes and potential skillset are intriguing.  Yeah, he might end up more Kedrick Brown/Gerald Green than Jimmy Butler/Tracy McGrady, but right now I'm super excited to watch what he can develop into.   Despite how either Smart or Brown were looked at by experts, I have higher hopes for the raw mystery box that is Jaylen Brown than I was for the 6'4 defensive roleplaying bricklayer that people thought could develop into a star back in 2014.
Yeah but just by looking at the numbers don't you think the experts are kind of stupid for thinking that smart was going to be so much better than Tony Allen.
Well... yes...  which is why tankcity so kindly points out that I was expressing concern before Smart's rookie season that he might peak out as Tony Allen... and why I'm admitting that I'm more excited about Jaylen Brown in 2016 than I ever was in 2014 about Smart - primarily because I was never really as sold on expert predictions that Smart was going to be the next Tyreke Evans and be "the man" right out of the gate.   But as tankcity kindly points out, people were labeling me a troll for comparing Smart to Tony Allen back then (typical).  WHy?  Because the vast majority of experts and people on this forum had far, far greater expectations of Marcus SMart than him developing into the next Tony Allen.   You don't take the next Tony Allen 6th in a loaded draft.   He was widely believed to have star potential.  He still might.

That's why it's a bit concerning that we're two years into Smart's career and he's not yet as good as Tony Allen was in his prime.  We still have far greater hopes for Smart than that.  I really hope he makes a leap next year. 

And for those who are confused... yes, I'm aware you watched Tony Allen when he played on the Celtics.  From 2011-2016, Allen was a 5x All-Defense player.  His peak happened AFTER he left the Celtics, so I don't blame anyone here for being unfamiliar with it.   It would be like saying, "Jaylen Brown might be the next Joe Johnson" and someone here saying "Joe Johnson sucks!  He couldn't stay as a starter for us!"...

Tony Allen's peak:   All-Defense 1st team
Marcus Smart:  No All-Defense selection

Tony Allen career:  48% FG/28% 3P
Smart last year:  35% FG/25% 3P

We could waste more time debating if Smart is near Tony Allen's defensive role player peak right now, but it's honestly pretty depressing.  Despite my concerns at the time, most here had far greater expectations for Smart   We all hope that Smart makes a major leap past Tony Allen territory next year and makes the comp irrelevant. 

So yeah, I'm more excited about Jaylen Brown than I was about Smart despite the fact most experts saw Smart as a superior prospect than what they see Brown as.  I worried that Smart would do what he's ended up doing.   With Brown, I have some worries as well, but he's raw and young enough that I'm just excited about the unknown.
 
How dare you disrespect the holy Chad Ford Tier System? Blasphemy.

i wish some one had done a statistical analysis on the difference between fords 3 and 4th tiers players and 4th and 5th tiers. I am curious if it would approach statistical significance and what strength.
So what you're really asking is if scouts/GM's are arbitrarily deciding which players they think have "superstar" potential (Towns), all-star potential (Smart) or otherwise (Brown). 

There were only a handful of players since 2000 that I remember being labelled "potential superstars'.   Yao Ming was definitely one of them and he never totally reached that level.  LeBron was one of them.  Kevin Durant and Greg Oden got the label.  Since Ford's tier articles started, he's had the following players listed as "potential superstars" per scouts/GMs:   Anthony Davis, John Wall, Blake Griffin, Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Karl Towns, Ben Simmons

Emphasis on the word "potential".  That's how those guys were seen prior to joining the league.  Super high ceilings with varied results thus far.

Several others got the label "all-star potential" (tier 2):   Kyrie Irving, Derrick Williams, Harrison Barnes, Bradley Beal, Michael-Kidd Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson, Dante Exum, Aaron Gordon, Marcus Smart, Julius Randle, Dario Saric, Noah Vonleh, Jahlil Okafor, Kristaps Porzingus, Emmanuel Mudiay, D'Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram

There's some misses in there.  Emphasis on the word "Potential".   That's how those guys were seen prior to joining the league.  They were believed to project into all-stars.  Obviously, it's not an exact science.  Players get injured.  Players never develop.  Players lack motivation.  Other players exceed expectations and make surprising leaps in their games.  Sometimes scouts/GM's are just flat out wrong and take a bust high or see a guy like Rudy Gobert go 27th.  Nobody is denying that.   Only a complete idiot would think that the draft order is a perfect representation of how the players will rank long-term.   Some of the above players unsurprisingly failed to pan out.   Many of the guys who didn't get the "future superstar" or "future allstar" label unsurprisingly managed to get there regardless.   

Our hope is that Jaylen Brown ends up one of those players that develops into a "future allstar" despite not getting that label.  It's a fine thing to hope for.  As we all are aware, prospects of his caliber occasionally surpass expectations.  Some folks even disagree with the consensus (I remember a minority of fans being really mad Giannis fell all the way to #15).  That's all fine and dandy.  Scouts/GM's can be wrong.  Fans can be right. 

You're attacking the draft in general.  You seem disappointed that someone like Derrick Williams went #2 in the draft and didn't turn into a star as scouts/GMs believed he'd be.   I assure you, the team that selected him 2nd is even more disappointed.    You seem hurt and betrayed that someone like Andre Drummond could end up an all-star despite being selected all the way at 9th, being passed up by 8 teams who didn't see him as having as much potential as someone like Dion Waiters and Thomas Robinson.   I'm with you on that... I was hoping we'd trade for Detroit's pick on draft night so we could select Drummond. 

But you're trying to suggest this is a Chad Ford problem.  And that's wrong.   Chad Ford's draft tiers reflect how teams feel about these prospects prior the draft.   Ford didn't force anyone to take Derrick Williams 2nd.  Ford didn't force 8 teams to pass on Drummond.  It's not Chad Ford's fault that reportedly every team picking 3-8 was exploring trading down or out of a draft range believed to be weak.  It makes no sense to blame Chad Ford for this.  Retroactively looking at how these guys panned out misses the point entirely.   This thread is asking how we felt about Marcus Smart in the past.  It's not about how we feel about Marcus Smart now.   Smart was labelled a future allstar.  That's why he was taken 6th.  Don't blame Chad Ford if Marcus Smart busts.  That's not his fault.

umm you really flew off in an irrelevant direction on that. I was/am wondering if data would suggest that Chad Ford's tiers are actually a real thing between the 4th and 5th tier and the 3rd and 4th tier. That is what I wrote.

You decided you needed to go off on a long spiel about the 1st and 2nd tiers in relationship to that including players like Drummond, Waiter and Thomas Robinson? I am assuming none of those guys were in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th tiers so your comment really could not have been less relevant.

Slow down and read a little better (and type less). You can also definitely not say all 18k of your posts is a dinger cause this post was clearly a 6-4-3 double play.
I think a more important question would be whether or not there's any correlation between defensive intensity and lack of offensive production.   Do we have data to support aggressive defensive effort makes a player's field goal percentages lower?

What other irrelevant things should we talk about in this thread?

Sneak peak: Are tiers really things, or a fancy way of throwing darts: 2014

In 2014 Chad Ford had just 3 players that his system led to land in the vaunted tier 3. This tier is reserved for players that project to be as NBA starters in their careers. These 3 players were unanimous selections for this tier:

Gary Harris
Doug McDermott
Nik Stauskas

Review: As they enter the 3rd year of their career it appears that Stauskas will not be a longterm starter as he struggled to maintain a starting position on a historically bad 76ers team with his coach publicly calling out his defensive effort. Stauskas struggled with his shot all year making his monikor "sauce castillo" seem like some kind of sick joke.

Gary Harris on the other hand does project as a starter after starting 76 games and averaging 12 points a game in his sophmore year.

Doug McDermott, while less comically awful than Stauskas during his sophmore campaign, has shown the defensive limitations many feared in college and seems to project as a long term bench player.

For this tier it appears Ford will get 1 out of 3 correct. In other words, worse than a drunk flipping a coin.

Tomorrow we look at Tier 4: These players project as either starters or top-tier rotation players.
But how did they really turn out? Here is a hint: James Young is not a rotation player.
We get it... you think the draft is a crap shoot.  In which case, Jaylen Brown with the #3 pick might end up being a total bust while some scrub taken at the end of the 1st round might end up a star.   

If Furkan Korkmaz ends up 10x the player Jaylen Brown does, are you going to blame Chad Ford for putting Furkan at a tier well below Brown... or are you going to blame the wide consensus of draft experts and 25 NBA teams that passed on Furkan?   Yeah, I guess it makes the most sense to blame Chad Ford, right Clay?

I guess we should have traded Jaylen (a tier 3/4 prospect) for someone projected in tiers 5 or 6.   It's a shame that Marcus Smart (a tier 2 prospect) looks like a tier 4 prospect after the fact.   #MondayMorningQuarterback
it is not just these 3. They are all really bad when you get into tier 3 and tier 4. They are worse than if you just through darts at a board.
Clay, we are having two conversations that aren't related to each other.   If three years from now Jaylen is looking like a James Young level bust while Furkan Korkmaz (#26 pick) is tearing up the league, will your big takeaway be to criticize Ford's Draft tier article?   The draft tier article accurately reflects how scouts/GM's feel about Furkan BEFORE he was drafted.   Whether or not Furkan ends up a superstar has nothing to do with the point being made here.   Expectations are low for Furkan.   Scouts believe expectations are low for him.   25 teams apparently had low expectations for Furkan.   Ford's draft tier article reflect that consensus.   

I brought up Ford's draft tier article as a reference for how scouts/GM's saw Marcus Smart 2 years ago.   I never intended to use it as the word of god for how those players will pan out.  Nobody is trying to claim that pre-draft projections or the actual draft order predicts the future.

My point:  Smart was widely seen as a possible all-star prospect 2 years ago (we agree).  Jaylen Brown isn't widely seen as a possible all-star prospect (we agree)

Your point:  Mock drafts can't predict the future (we agree).  The draft doesn't predict the future (we agree).

We both are in agreement on both.  There's no need for us to talk about it further.  We're on the same page.

My point is relevant to this topic, because it's talking about how people felt about Smart 1-2 years ago vs how people feel about Jaylen right now.

Your point really has nothing to do with this topic.  Yes, mock drafts don't predict the future.  Congrats.  You're stating the obvious.
my point is that Chad ford draft tiers are demonstrably worse that mock drafts. That he has a supernatural ability to get things wrong.
Cool.  High five. 

Ford's tier article comes out like 2 days before the draft and as far as I can tell, does a pretty good job of figuring out which range each prospect is going in.    Feel free to share a source that does a better job of predicting how the draft order will shake out.  Then remind me again 10 months from now when it's relevant to my interests.
they have these squids in cages at the local aquarium by my house. Each year they throw some eel meat to the top of their cage and open it up the squids to eat. Attached to each squid is the name of a prospect in the draft. The squids are then marked in the order they are able to consume the eal and that is their draft slot. 4 of the last 5 years these squids have out performed fords tiers. The 5th year a small boy got into the tank and was attacked by the squids mucking up the order. You can bet I'll be there bright and early next May for annual eel feed to see how it goes in year 6. There are mumblings they may even add corn dogs and cans of Olympia beer next year for two bucks!
I assume the squids projected Smart in the "potential all-star" tier back in 2014, since the widespread consensus was that the draft was about 7-8 all-stars deep and Smart ended up getting selected 6th.     I assume the squids also projected Jaylen Brown outside of the "potential all-star tier" this Summer since the widespread consensus was that this draft was 2 potential all-stars deep, Brown was projected to go 3-8, and he was selected 3rd despite a vocal group calling it a "reach".   

In which case, the squids are fine in my book, and I'll reference them from now on when someone asks how I felt about Marcus Smart in 2014 vs how I feel about Jaylen Brown in 2016.

In spite of the squids believing 2014 Smart was a superior prospect to 2016 Brown, I'm still more excited about Brown than I was about Smart.  Sorry, squids. 

Offline celticsclay

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 Here's the problem. If we actually did think he wouldn't be any better than Tony Allen, I say we still draft him.

 I agree we expected him to be better, but you can't knock him for drafting Tony Allen 2.0

 The fact is there was no better choice at the sixth spot in that horrible draft. Yeah I said Horrible. Wiggins and Parker were the two big names and that remains true.

 It was Randle or Smart and we chose right, especially for our needs.

 Oklahoma state producing some fine defenders though.

 Per 40 Stats College sophmore year.

 Tony Allen 20.3 ppg 7rpg 4apg 2.6 spg
                     .504% .297% .675%

        Smart. 22ppg 7.2rpg 5.8apg 3.5spg
                     .422% .299% .728%

 Same college, both sophomores, very comparable numbers with Tony having a bug advantage with Fg% probably because he's a quicker and better overall athlete than Marcus.

 Same crappy 3p%, and Smart is the slightly better defender. If the Celtics new they were getting Tony Allen all over again, I say they were fine with that plain and simple.

 Even with the benefit oh Heinsight the only guys in tge discussion at #6 in the lottery were.

 #7 Randle
 #8 Stuaskas
 #9 Vonleh
 #10 Payton
 #11 Doug Mcbuckets
 #12 Saric
 #13 Lavine

 So you tell me LB, or anyone else, who the heck do you want out if that list.
I'm still fine with the pick even though Smart right now is a poor man's Tony Allen.  He's still really young.  I'm hopeful he makes a leap next year.    It's true I wanted Randle over him, but I wasn't all that upset about the pick given our roster construction at the time.  And I'm not all that upset about the pick now.  Randle has only one season under his belt and there's a chance he doesn't make significant improvements either. 

The main point was that expectations for Smart were pretty high back in 2014.  Tony Allen was seen as a worst-case scenario... and it still is.   Most people saw him as having all-star potential.  He was believed to be an NBA-ready player who would make an impact on both ends immediately despite weak shooting in College.    He's been disappointing so far, but it's still early. 

Expectations are lower for Jaylen Brown than they were from Smart.  In-part, because he's seen as a lesser prospect than Smart was.  In-part, because fans have already been burned by Smart and have lowered expectations for Jaylen as a result.   Nobody anticipates Jaylen starting anytime next year.   For the most part, people expect that he's a long-term project that hopefully makes some defensive contributions off the bench.  This should be a top team in the East without relying on Brown so he really doesn't have any pressure to perform.  When Smart entered, he was thought to be the guy who was going to take the reigns from Rondo as "the man".  Despite expectations being lower for Brown, many of us (myself included) are more excited about Jaylen Brown than we were about Smart in 2014 or Smart in 2015.   Jaylen is more mysterious.  His age adds to his allure.  His physical attributes and potential skillset are intriguing.  Yeah, he might end up more Kedrick Brown/Gerald Green than Jimmy Butler/Tracy McGrady, but right now I'm super excited to watch what he can develop into.   Despite how either Smart or Brown were looked at by experts, I have higher hopes for the raw mystery box that is Jaylen Brown than I was for the 6'4 defensive roleplaying bricklayer that people thought could develop into a star back in 2014.
Yeah but just by looking at the numbers don't you think the experts are kind of stupid for thinking that smart was going to be so much better than Tony Allen.
Well... yes...  which is why tankcity so kindly points out that I was expressing concern before Smart's rookie season that he might peak out as Tony Allen... and why I'm admitting that I'm more excited about Jaylen Brown in 2016 than I ever was in 2014 about Smart - primarily because I was never really as sold on expert predictions that Smart was going to be the next Tyreke Evans and be "the man" right out of the gate.   But as tankcity kindly points out, people were labeling me a troll for comparing Smart to Tony Allen back then (typical).  WHy?  Because the vast majority of experts and people on this forum had far, far greater expectations of Marcus SMart than him developing into the next Tony Allen.   You don't take the next Tony Allen 6th in a loaded draft.   He was widely believed to have star potential.  He still might.

That's why it's a bit concerning that we're two years into Smart's career and he's not yet as good as Tony Allen was in his prime.  We still have far greater hopes for Smart than that.  I really hope he makes a leap next year. 

And for those who are confused... yes, I'm aware you watched Tony Allen when he played on the Celtics.  From 2011-2016, Allen was a 5x All-Defense player.  His peak happened AFTER he left the Celtics, so I don't blame anyone here for being unfamiliar with it.   It would be like saying, "Jaylen Brown might be the next Joe Johnson" and someone here saying "Joe Johnson sucks!  He couldn't stay as a starter for us!"...

Tony Allen's peak:   All-Defense 1st team
Marcus Smart:  No All-Defense selection

Tony Allen career:  48% FG/28% 3P
Smart last year:  35% FG/25% 3P

We could waste more time debating if Smart is near Tony Allen's defensive role player peak right now, but it's honestly pretty depressing.  Despite my concerns at the time, most here had far greater expectations for Smart   We all hope that Smart makes a major leap past Tony Allen territory next year and makes the comp irrelevant. 

So yeah, I'm more excited about Jaylen Brown than I was about Smart despite the fact most experts saw Smart as a superior prospect than what they see Brown as.  I worried that Smart would do what he's ended up doing.   With Brown, I have some worries as well, but he's raw and young enough that I'm just excited about the unknown.
 
How dare you disrespect the holy Chad Ford Tier System? Blasphemy.

i wish some one had done a statistical analysis on the difference between fords 3 and 4th tiers players and 4th and 5th tiers. I am curious if it would approach statistical significance and what strength.
So what you're really asking is if scouts/GM's are arbitrarily deciding which players they think have "superstar" potential (Towns), all-star potential (Smart) or otherwise (Brown). 

There were only a handful of players since 2000 that I remember being labelled "potential superstars'.   Yao Ming was definitely one of them and he never totally reached that level.  LeBron was one of them.  Kevin Durant and Greg Oden got the label.  Since Ford's tier articles started, he's had the following players listed as "potential superstars" per scouts/GMs:   Anthony Davis, John Wall, Blake Griffin, Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Karl Towns, Ben Simmons

Emphasis on the word "potential".  That's how those guys were seen prior to joining the league.  Super high ceilings with varied results thus far.

Several others got the label "all-star potential" (tier 2):   Kyrie Irving, Derrick Williams, Harrison Barnes, Bradley Beal, Michael-Kidd Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson, Dante Exum, Aaron Gordon, Marcus Smart, Julius Randle, Dario Saric, Noah Vonleh, Jahlil Okafor, Kristaps Porzingus, Emmanuel Mudiay, D'Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram

There's some misses in there.  Emphasis on the word "Potential".   That's how those guys were seen prior to joining the league.  They were believed to project into all-stars.  Obviously, it's not an exact science.  Players get injured.  Players never develop.  Players lack motivation.  Other players exceed expectations and make surprising leaps in their games.  Sometimes scouts/GM's are just flat out wrong and take a bust high or see a guy like Rudy Gobert go 27th.  Nobody is denying that.   Only a complete idiot would think that the draft order is a perfect representation of how the players will rank long-term.   Some of the above players unsurprisingly failed to pan out.   Many of the guys who didn't get the "future superstar" or "future allstar" label unsurprisingly managed to get there regardless.   

Our hope is that Jaylen Brown ends up one of those players that develops into a "future allstar" despite not getting that label.  It's a fine thing to hope for.  As we all are aware, prospects of his caliber occasionally surpass expectations.  Some folks even disagree with the consensus (I remember a minority of fans being really mad Giannis fell all the way to #15).  That's all fine and dandy.  Scouts/GM's can be wrong.  Fans can be right. 

You're attacking the draft in general.  You seem disappointed that someone like Derrick Williams went #2 in the draft and didn't turn into a star as scouts/GMs believed he'd be.   I assure you, the team that selected him 2nd is even more disappointed.    You seem hurt and betrayed that someone like Andre Drummond could end up an all-star despite being selected all the way at 9th, being passed up by 8 teams who didn't see him as having as much potential as someone like Dion Waiters and Thomas Robinson.   I'm with you on that... I was hoping we'd trade for Detroit's pick on draft night so we could select Drummond. 

But you're trying to suggest this is a Chad Ford problem.  And that's wrong.   Chad Ford's draft tiers reflect how teams feel about these prospects prior the draft.   Ford didn't force anyone to take Derrick Williams 2nd.  Ford didn't force 8 teams to pass on Drummond.  It's not Chad Ford's fault that reportedly every team picking 3-8 was exploring trading down or out of a draft range believed to be weak.  It makes no sense to blame Chad Ford for this.  Retroactively looking at how these guys panned out misses the point entirely.   This thread is asking how we felt about Marcus Smart in the past.  It's not about how we feel about Marcus Smart now.   Smart was labelled a future allstar.  That's why he was taken 6th.  Don't blame Chad Ford if Marcus Smart busts.  That's not his fault.

umm you really flew off in an irrelevant direction on that. I was/am wondering if data would suggest that Chad Ford's tiers are actually a real thing between the 4th and 5th tier and the 3rd and 4th tier. That is what I wrote.

You decided you needed to go off on a long spiel about the 1st and 2nd tiers in relationship to that including players like Drummond, Waiter and Thomas Robinson? I am assuming none of those guys were in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th tiers so your comment really could not have been less relevant.

Slow down and read a little better (and type less). You can also definitely not say all 18k of your posts is a dinger cause this post was clearly a 6-4-3 double play.
I think a more important question would be whether or not there's any correlation between defensive intensity and lack of offensive production.   Do we have data to support aggressive defensive effort makes a player's field goal percentages lower?

What other irrelevant things should we talk about in this thread?

Sneak peak: Are tiers really things, or a fancy way of throwing darts: 2014

In 2014 Chad Ford had just 3 players that his system led to land in the vaunted tier 3. This tier is reserved for players that project to be as NBA starters in their careers. These 3 players were unanimous selections for this tier:

Gary Harris
Doug McDermott
Nik Stauskas

Review: As they enter the 3rd year of their career it appears that Stauskas will not be a longterm starter as he struggled to maintain a starting position on a historically bad 76ers team with his coach publicly calling out his defensive effort. Stauskas struggled with his shot all year making his monikor "sauce castillo" seem like some kind of sick joke.

Gary Harris on the other hand does project as a starter after starting 76 games and averaging 12 points a game in his sophmore year.

Doug McDermott, while less comically awful than Stauskas during his sophmore campaign, has shown the defensive limitations many feared in college and seems to project as a long term bench player.

For this tier it appears Ford will get 1 out of 3 correct. In other words, worse than a drunk flipping a coin.

Tomorrow we look at Tier 4: These players project as either starters or top-tier rotation players.
But how did they really turn out? Here is a hint: James Young is not a rotation player.
We get it... you think the draft is a crap shoot.  In which case, Jaylen Brown with the #3 pick might end up being a total bust while some scrub taken at the end of the 1st round might end up a star.   

If Furkan Korkmaz ends up 10x the player Jaylen Brown does, are you going to blame Chad Ford for putting Furkan at a tier well below Brown... or are you going to blame the wide consensus of draft experts and 25 NBA teams that passed on Furkan?   Yeah, I guess it makes the most sense to blame Chad Ford, right Clay?

I guess we should have traded Jaylen (a tier 3/4 prospect) for someone projected in tiers 5 or 6.   It's a shame that Marcus Smart (a tier 2 prospect) looks like a tier 4 prospect after the fact.   #MondayMorningQuarterback
it is not just these 3. They are all really bad when you get into tier 3 and tier 4. They are worse than if you just through darts at a board.
Clay, we are having two conversations that aren't related to each other.   If three years from now Jaylen is looking like a James Young level bust while Furkan Korkmaz (#26 pick) is tearing up the league, will your big takeaway be to criticize Ford's Draft tier article?   The draft tier article accurately reflects how scouts/GM's feel about Furkan BEFORE he was drafted.   Whether or not Furkan ends up a superstar has nothing to do with the point being made here.   Expectations are low for Furkan.   Scouts believe expectations are low for him.   25 teams apparently had low expectations for Furkan.   Ford's draft tier article reflect that consensus.   

I brought up Ford's draft tier article as a reference for how scouts/GM's saw Marcus Smart 2 years ago.   I never intended to use it as the word of god for how those players will pan out.  Nobody is trying to claim that pre-draft projections or the actual draft order predicts the future.

My point:  Smart was widely seen as a possible all-star prospect 2 years ago (we agree).  Jaylen Brown isn't widely seen as a possible all-star prospect (we agree)

Your point:  Mock drafts can't predict the future (we agree).  The draft doesn't predict the future (we agree).

We both are in agreement on both.  There's no need for us to talk about it further.  We're on the same page.

My point is relevant to this topic, because it's talking about how people felt about Smart 1-2 years ago vs how people feel about Jaylen right now.

Your point really has nothing to do with this topic.  Yes, mock drafts don't predict the future.  Congrats.  You're stating the obvious.
my point is that Chad ford draft tiers are demonstrably worse that mock drafts. That he has a supernatural ability to get things wrong.
Cool.  High five. 

Ford's tier article comes out like 2 days before the draft and as far as I can tell, does a pretty good job of figuring out which range each prospect is going in.    Feel free to share a source that does a better job of predicting how the draft order will shake out.  Then remind me again 10 months from now when it's relevant to my interests.
they have these squids in cages at the local aquarium by my house. Each year they throw some eel meat to the top of their cage and open it up the squids to eat. Attached to each squid is the name of a prospect in the draft. The squids are then marked in the order they are able to consume the eal and that is their draft slot. 4 of the last 5 years these squids have out performed fords tiers. The 5th year a small boy got into the tank and was attacked by the squids mucking up the order. You can bet I'll be there bright and early next May for annual eel feed to see how it goes in year 6. There are mumblings they may even add corn dogs and cans of Olympia beer next year for two bucks!
I assume the squids projected Smart in the "potential all-star" tier back in 2014, since the widespread consensus was that the draft was about 7-8 all-stars deep and Smart ended up getting selected 6th.     I assume the squids also projected Jaylen Brown outside of the "potential all-star tier" this Summer since the widespread consensus was that this draft was 2 potential all-stars deep, Brown was projected to go 3-8, and he was selected 3rd despite a vocal group calling it a "reach".   

In which case, the squids are fine in my book, and I'll reference them from now on when someone asks how I felt about Marcus Smart in 2014 vs how I feel about Jaylen Brown in 2016.

In spite of the squids believing 2014 Smart was a superior prospect to 2016 Brown, I'm still more excited about Brown than I was about Smart.  Sorry, squids.
please don't talk about the squids like that. It's not how they work

Offline celticsclay

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Did you know Chad ford had porzingas and James young in the same tier? This was right after his failed attempt at selling a solar powered flashlight

Offline LarBrd33

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Did you know Chad ford had porzingas and James young in the same tier? This was right after his failed attempt at selling a solar powered flashlight
Did you know that James Young was drafted in 2014 and Porzingis was drafted in 2015?

Did you know that prior to Porzingis pulling out a week before the 2014 draft...

nbadraft.net had him going #21
draftexpress.com had him going #15
Cbssports had him going #27
... you get the idea...

And did you know that, once again, Chad Ford's draft tier accurately represented the consensus at the time when it lumped Porzingis into the same "tier" as James Young (who went #17, but was expected to go anywhere from 15-28 depending on the publication)?  Had Porzingis stayed in the draft, he was widely expected to be selected in the same range as Young.
 
And did you know that when Porzingis decided to re-enter the draft a year later in 2015 and was widely expected to be a high lotto pick, Ford listed him as a "Tier 2" level prospect (potential all-star) and suggested he would be picked in the 2-5 range after the lone "Tier 1" prospect (Karl Towns)?   Not surprisingly, Ford's draft tier article once again accurately represented the consensus at the time when it lumped him in that tier.  As expected, Porzingis was selected in the 2-5 range (#4).

So once again, your issue isn't with Chad Ford.  You seem to be taking offense with the fact mock drafts, scouts, media, NBA teams, etc can't predict the future.  Shame on them for lumping in Porzingis with James Young a year before Porzingus was drafted.  That's not Professor Chadwick's cross to bear. 
« Last Edit: August 30, 2016, 05:35:23 AM by LarBrd33 »

Offline CoachBo

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Can we can Austin Ainge, then, and hire the squids?
Coined the CelticsBlog term, "Euromistake."

Offline celticsclay

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Did you know Chad ford had porzingas and James young in the same tier? This was right after his failed attempt at selling a solar powered flashlight
Did you know that James Young was drafted in 2014 and Porzingis was drafted in 2015?

Did you know that prior to Porzingis pulling out a week before the 2014 draft...

nbadraft.net had him going #21
draftexpress.com had him going #15
Cbssports had him going #27
... you get the idea...

And did you know that, once again, Chad Ford's draft tier accurately represented the consensus at the time when it lumped Porzingis into the same "tier" as James Young (who went #17, but was expected to go anywhere from 15-28 depending on the publication)?  Had Porzingis stayed in the draft, he was widely expected to be selected in the same range as Young.
 
And did you know that when Porzingis decided to re-enter the draft a year later in 2015 and was widely expected to be a high lotto pick, Ford listed him as a "Tier 2" level prospect (potential all-star) and suggested he would be picked in the 2-5 range after the lone "Tier 1" prospect (Karl Towns)?   Not surprisingly, Ford's draft tier article once again accurately represented the consensus at the time when it lumped him in that tier.  As expected, Porzingis was selected in the 2-5 range (#4).

So once again, your issue isn't with Chad Ford.  You seem to be taking offense with the fact mock drafts, scouts, media, NBA teams, etc can't predict the future.  Shame on them for lumping in Porzingis with James Young a year before Porzingus was drafted.  That's not Professor Chadwick's cross to bear.
no my issues is with ford. Mock drafts are pretty cool. The tiers are just really poor

Offline LarBrd33

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Did you know Chad ford had porzingas and James young in the same tier? This was right after his failed attempt at selling a solar powered flashlight
Did you know that James Young was drafted in 2014 and Porzingis was drafted in 2015?

Did you know that prior to Porzingis pulling out a week before the 2014 draft...

nbadraft.net had him going #21
draftexpress.com had him going #15
Cbssports had him going #27
... you get the idea...

And did you know that, once again, Chad Ford's draft tier accurately represented the consensus at the time when it lumped Porzingis into the same "tier" as James Young (who went #17, but was expected to go anywhere from 15-28 depending on the publication)?  Had Porzingis stayed in the draft, he was widely expected to be selected in the same range as Young.
 
And did you know that when Porzingis decided to re-enter the draft a year later in 2015 and was widely expected to be a high lotto pick, Ford listed him as a "Tier 2" level prospect (potential all-star) and suggested he would be picked in the 2-5 range after the lone "Tier 1" prospect (Karl Towns)?   Not surprisingly, Ford's draft tier article once again accurately represented the consensus at the time when it lumped him in that tier.  As expected, Porzingis was selected in the 2-5 range (#4).

So once again, your issue isn't with Chad Ford.  You seem to be taking offense with the fact mock drafts, scouts, media, NBA teams, etc can't predict the future.  Shame on them for lumping in Porzingis with James Young a year before Porzingus was drafted.  That's not Professor Chadwick's cross to bear.
no my issues is with ford. Mock drafts are pretty cool. The tiers are just really poor
Clay, I think you and I are at a standstill here.   If only there was someone who could mediate.

I hear Professor Chad Ford is the Director of the Brigham Young University – Hawaii's McKay Center and is known for his study of conflict resolution.   Perhaps he can help. 

Offline celticsclay

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Did you know Chad ford had porzingas and James young in the same tier? This was right after his failed attempt at selling a solar powered flashlight
Did you know that James Young was drafted in 2014 and Porzingis was drafted in 2015?

Did you know that prior to Porzingis pulling out a week before the 2014 draft...

nbadraft.net had him going #21
draftexpress.com had him going #15
Cbssports had him going #27
... you get the idea...

And did you know that, once again, Chad Ford's draft tier accurately represented the consensus at the time when it lumped Porzingis into the same "tier" as James Young (who went #17, but was expected to go anywhere from 15-28 depending on the publication)?  Had Porzingis stayed in the draft, he was widely expected to be selected in the same range as Young.
 
And did you know that when Porzingis decided to re-enter the draft a year later in 2015 and was widely expected to be a high lotto pick, Ford listed him as a "Tier 2" level prospect (potential all-star) and suggested he would be picked in the 2-5 range after the lone "Tier 1" prospect (Karl Towns)?   Not surprisingly, Ford's draft tier article once again accurately represented the consensus at the time when it lumped him in that tier.  As expected, Porzingis was selected in the 2-5 range (#4).

So once again, your issue isn't with Chad Ford.  You seem to be taking offense with the fact mock drafts, scouts, media, NBA teams, etc can't predict the future.  Shame on them for lumping in Porzingis with James Young a year before Porzingus was drafted.  That's not Professor Chadwick's cross to bear.
no my issues is with ford. Mock drafts are pretty cool. The tiers are just really poor
Clay, I think you and I are at a standstill here.   If only there was someone who could mediate.

I hear Professor Chad Ford is the Director of the Brigham Young University – Hawaii's McKay Center and is known for his study of conflict resolution.   Perhaps he can help.

I think we got more in us.

Online hwangjini_1

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 Here's the problem. If we actually did think he wouldn't be any better than Tony Allen, I say we still draft him.

 I agree we expected him to be better, but you can't knock him for drafting Tony Allen 2.0

 The fact is there was no better choice at the sixth spot in that horrible draft. Yeah I said Horrible. Wiggins and Parker were the two big names and that remains true.

 It was Randle or Smart and we chose right, especially for our needs.

 Oklahoma state producing some fine defenders though.

 Per 40 Stats College sophmore year.

 Tony Allen 20.3 ppg 7rpg 4apg 2.6 spg
                     .504% .297% .675%

        Smart. 22ppg 7.2rpg 5.8apg 3.5spg
                     .422% .299% .728%

 Same college, both sophomores, very comparable numbers with Tony having a bug advantage with Fg% probably because he's a quicker and better overall athlete than Marcus.

 Same crappy 3p%, and Smart is the slightly better defender. If the Celtics new they were getting Tony Allen all over again, I say they were fine with that plain and simple.

 Even with the benefit oh Heinsight the only guys in tge discussion at #6 in the lottery were.

 #7 Randle
 #8 Stuaskas
 #9 Vonleh
 #10 Payton
 #11 Doug Mcbuckets
 #12 Saric
 #13 Lavine

 So you tell me LB, or anyone else, who the heck do you want out if that list.
I'm still fine with the pick even though Smart right now is a poor man's Tony Allen.  He's still really young.  I'm hopeful he makes a leap next year.    It's true I wanted Randle over him, but I wasn't all that upset about the pick given our roster construction at the time.  And I'm not all that upset about the pick now.  Randle has only one season under his belt and there's a chance he doesn't make significant improvements either. 

The main point was that expectations for Smart were pretty high back in 2014.  Tony Allen was seen as a worst-case scenario... and it still is.   Most people saw him as having all-star potential.  He was believed to be an NBA-ready player who would make an impact on both ends immediately despite weak shooting in College.    He's been disappointing so far, but it's still early. 

Expectations are lower for Jaylen Brown than they were from Smart.  In-part, because he's seen as a lesser prospect than Smart was.  In-part, because fans have already been burned by Smart and have lowered expectations for Jaylen as a result.   Nobody anticipates Jaylen starting anytime next year.   For the most part, people expect that he's a long-term project that hopefully makes some defensive contributions off the bench.  This should be a top team in the East without relying on Brown so he really doesn't have any pressure to perform.  When Smart entered, he was thought to be the guy who was going to take the reigns from Rondo as "the man".  Despite expectations being lower for Brown, many of us (myself included) are more excited about Jaylen Brown than we were about Smart in 2014 or Smart in 2015.   Jaylen is more mysterious.  His age adds to his allure.  His physical attributes and potential skillset are intriguing.  Yeah, he might end up more Kedrick Brown/Gerald Green than Jimmy Butler/Tracy McGrady, but right now I'm super excited to watch what he can develop into.   Despite how either Smart or Brown were looked at by experts, I have higher hopes for the raw mystery box that is Jaylen Brown than I was for the 6'4 defensive roleplaying bricklayer that people thought could develop into a star back in 2014.
Yeah but just by looking at the numbers don't you think the experts are kind of stupid for thinking that smart was going to be so much better than Tony Allen.
Well... yes...  which is why tankcity so kindly points out that I was expressing concern before Smart's rookie season that he might peak out as Tony Allen... and why I'm admitting that I'm more excited about Jaylen Brown in 2016 than I ever was in 2014 about Smart - primarily because I was never really as sold on expert predictions that Smart was going to be the next Tyreke Evans and be "the man" right out of the gate.   But as tankcity kindly points out, people were labeling me a troll for comparing Smart to Tony Allen back then (typical).  WHy?  Because the vast majority of experts and people on this forum had far, far greater expectations of Marcus SMart than him developing into the next Tony Allen.   You don't take the next Tony Allen 6th in a loaded draft.   He was widely believed to have star potential.  He still might.

That's why it's a bit concerning that we're two years into Smart's career and he's not yet as good as Tony Allen was in his prime.  We still have far greater hopes for Smart than that.  I really hope he makes a leap next year. 

And for those who are confused... yes, I'm aware you watched Tony Allen when he played on the Celtics.  From 2011-2016, Allen was a 5x All-Defense player.  His peak happened AFTER he left the Celtics, so I don't blame anyone here for being unfamiliar with it.   It would be like saying, "Jaylen Brown might be the next Joe Johnson" and someone here saying "Joe Johnson sucks!  He couldn't stay as a starter for us!"...

Tony Allen's peak:   All-Defense 1st team
Marcus Smart:  No All-Defense selection

Tony Allen career:  48% FG/28% 3P
Smart last year:  35% FG/25% 3P

We could waste more time debating if Smart is near Tony Allen's defensive role player peak right now, but it's honestly pretty depressing.  Despite my concerns at the time, most here had far greater expectations for Smart   We all hope that Smart makes a major leap past Tony Allen territory next year and makes the comp irrelevant. 

So yeah, I'm more excited about Jaylen Brown than I was about Smart despite the fact most experts saw Smart as a superior prospect than what they see Brown as.  I worried that Smart would do what he's ended up doing.   With Brown, I have some worries as well, but he's raw and young enough that I'm just excited about the unknown.
 
How dare you disrespect the holy Chad Ford Tier System? Blasphemy.

i wish some one had done a statistical analysis on the difference between fords 3 and 4th tiers players and 4th and 5th tiers. I am curious if it would approach statistical significance and what strength.
So what you're really asking is if scouts/GM's are arbitrarily deciding which players they think have "superstar" potential (Towns), all-star potential (Smart) or otherwise (Brown). 

There were only a handful of players since 2000 that I remember being labelled "potential superstars'.   Yao Ming was definitely one of them and he never totally reached that level.  LeBron was one of them.  Kevin Durant and Greg Oden got the label.  Since Ford's tier articles started, he's had the following players listed as "potential superstars" per scouts/GMs:   Anthony Davis, John Wall, Blake Griffin, Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Karl Towns, Ben Simmons

Emphasis on the word "potential".  That's how those guys were seen prior to joining the league.  Super high ceilings with varied results thus far.

Several others got the label "all-star potential" (tier 2):   Kyrie Irving, Derrick Williams, Harrison Barnes, Bradley Beal, Michael-Kidd Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson, Dante Exum, Aaron Gordon, Marcus Smart, Julius Randle, Dario Saric, Noah Vonleh, Jahlil Okafor, Kristaps Porzingus, Emmanuel Mudiay, D'Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram

There's some misses in there.  Emphasis on the word "Potential".   That's how those guys were seen prior to joining the league.  They were believed to project into all-stars.  Obviously, it's not an exact science.  Players get injured.  Players never develop.  Players lack motivation.  Other players exceed expectations and make surprising leaps in their games.  Sometimes scouts/GM's are just flat out wrong and take a bust high or see a guy like Rudy Gobert go 27th.  Nobody is denying that.   Only a complete idiot would think that the draft order is a perfect representation of how the players will rank long-term.   Some of the above players unsurprisingly failed to pan out.   Many of the guys who didn't get the "future superstar" or "future allstar" label unsurprisingly managed to get there regardless.   

Our hope is that Jaylen Brown ends up one of those players that develops into a "future allstar" despite not getting that label.  It's a fine thing to hope for.  As we all are aware, prospects of his caliber occasionally surpass expectations.  Some folks even disagree with the consensus (I remember a minority of fans being really mad Giannis fell all the way to #15).  That's all fine and dandy.  Scouts/GM's can be wrong.  Fans can be right. 

You're attacking the draft in general.  You seem disappointed that someone like Derrick Williams went #2 in the draft and didn't turn into a star as scouts/GMs believed he'd be.   I assure you, the team that selected him 2nd is even more disappointed.    You seem hurt and betrayed that someone like Andre Drummond could end up an all-star despite being selected all the way at 9th, being passed up by 8 teams who didn't see him as having as much potential as someone like Dion Waiters and Thomas Robinson.   I'm with you on that... I was hoping we'd trade for Detroit's pick on draft night so we could select Drummond. 

But you're trying to suggest this is a Chad Ford problem.  And that's wrong.   Chad Ford's draft tiers reflect how teams feel about these prospects prior the draft.   Ford didn't force anyone to take Derrick Williams 2nd.  Ford didn't force 8 teams to pass on Drummond.  It's not Chad Ford's fault that reportedly every team picking 3-8 was exploring trading down or out of a draft range believed to be weak.  It makes no sense to blame Chad Ford for this.  Retroactively looking at how these guys panned out misses the point entirely.   This thread is asking how we felt about Marcus Smart in the past.  It's not about how we feel about Marcus Smart now.   Smart was labelled a future allstar.  That's why he was taken 6th.  Don't blame Chad Ford if Marcus Smart busts.  That's not his fault.

umm you really flew off in an irrelevant direction on that. I was/am wondering if data would suggest that Chad Ford's tiers are actually a real thing between the 4th and 5th tier and the 3rd and 4th tier. That is what I wrote.

You decided you needed to go off on a long spiel about the 1st and 2nd tiers in relationship to that including players like Drummond, Waiter and Thomas Robinson? I am assuming none of those guys were in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th tiers so your comment really could not have been less relevant.

Slow down and read a little better (and type less). You can also definitely not say all 18k of your posts is a dinger cause this post was clearly a 6-4-3 double play.
I think a more important question would be whether or not there's any correlation between defensive intensity and lack of offensive production.   Do we have data to support aggressive defensive effort makes a player's field goal percentages lower?

What other irrelevant things should we talk about in this thread?

Sneak peak: Are tiers really things, or a fancy way of throwing darts: 2014

In 2014 Chad Ford had just 3 players that his system led to land in the vaunted tier 3. This tier is reserved for players that project to be as NBA starters in their careers. These 3 players were unanimous selections for this tier:

Gary Harris
Doug McDermott
Nik Stauskas

Review: As they enter the 3rd year of their career it appears that Stauskas will not be a longterm starter as he struggled to maintain a starting position on a historically bad 76ers team with his coach publicly calling out his defensive effort. Stauskas struggled with his shot all year making his monikor "sauce castillo" seem like some kind of sick joke.

Gary Harris on the other hand does project as a starter after starting 76 games and averaging 12 points a game in his sophmore year.

Doug McDermott, while less comically awful than Stauskas during his sophmore campaign, has shown the defensive limitations many feared in college and seems to project as a long term bench player.

For this tier it appears Ford will get 1 out of 3 correct. In other words, worse than a drunk flipping a coin.

Tomorrow we look at Tier 4: These players project as either starters or top-tier rotation players.
But how did they really turn out? Here is a hint: James Young is not a rotation player.
We get it... you think the draft is a crap shoot.  In which case, Jaylen Brown with the #3 pick might end up being a total bust while some scrub taken at the end of the 1st round might end up a star.   

If Furkan Korkmaz ends up 10x the player Jaylen Brown does, are you going to blame Chad Ford for putting Furkan at a tier well below Brown... or are you going to blame the wide consensus of draft experts and 25 NBA teams that passed on Furkan?   Yeah, I guess it makes the most sense to blame Chad Ford, right Clay?

I guess we should have traded Jaylen (a tier 3/4 prospect) for someone projected in tiers 5 or 6.   It's a shame that Marcus Smart (a tier 2 prospect) looks like a tier 4 prospect after the fact.   #MondayMorningQuarterback
it is not just these 3. They are all really bad when you get into tier 3 and tier 4. They are worse than if you just through darts at a board.
Clay, we are having two conversations that aren't related to each other.   If three years from now Jaylen is looking like a James Young level bust while Furkan Korkmaz (#26 pick) is tearing up the league, will your big takeaway be to criticize Ford's Draft tier article?   The draft tier article accurately reflects how scouts/GM's feel about Furkan BEFORE he was drafted.   Whether or not Furkan ends up a superstar has nothing to do with the point being made here.   Expectations are low for Furkan.   Scouts believe expectations are low for him.   25 teams apparently had low expectations for Furkan.   Ford's draft tier article reflect that consensus.   

I brought up Ford's draft tier article as a reference for how scouts/GM's saw Marcus Smart 2 years ago.   I never intended to use it as the word of god for how those players will pan out.  Nobody is trying to claim that pre-draft projections or the actual draft order predicts the future.

My point:  Smart was widely seen as a possible all-star prospect 2 years ago (we agree).  Jaylen Brown isn't widely seen as a possible all-star prospect (we agree)

Your point:  Mock drafts can't predict the future (we agree).  The draft doesn't predict the future (we agree).

We both are in agreement on both.  There's no need for us to talk about it further.  We're on the same page.

My point is relevant to this topic, because it's talking about how people felt about Smart 1-2 years ago vs how people feel about Jaylen right now.

Your point really has nothing to do with this topic.  Yes, mock drafts don't predict the future.  Congrats.  You're stating the obvious.
my point is that Chad ford draft tiers are demonstrably worse that mock drafts. That he has a supernatural ability to get things wrong.
Cool.  High five. 

Ford's tier article comes out like 2 days before the draft and as far as I can tell, does a pretty good job of figuring out which range each prospect is going in.    Feel free to share a source that does a better job of predicting how the draft order will shake out.  Then remind me again 10 months from now when it's relevant to my interests.
they have these squids in cages at the local aquarium by my house. Each year they throw some eel meat to the top of their cage and open it up the squids to eat. Attached to each squid is the name of a prospect in the draft. The squids are then marked in the order they are able to consume the eal and that is their draft slot. 4 of the last 5 years these squids have out performed fords tiers. The 5th year a small boy got into the tank and was attacked by the squids mucking up the order. You can bet I'll be there bright and early next May for annual eel feed to see how it goes in year 6. There are mumblings they may even add corn dogs and cans of Olympia beer next year for two bucks!
if the squids dont work, there are always monkeys.

"Give a monkey enough darts and they’ll beat the market. So says a draft article by Research Affiliates highlighting the simulated results of 100 monkeys throwing darts at the stock pages in a newspaper. The average monkey outperformed the index by an average of 1.7 percent per year since 1964. That’s a lot of bananas!"

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/#7ad06e436e8b
 ;D
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Offline celticsclay

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 Here's the problem. If we actually did think he wouldn't be any better than Tony Allen, I say we still draft him.

 I agree we expected him to be better, but you can't knock him for drafting Tony Allen 2.0

 The fact is there was no better choice at the sixth spot in that horrible draft. Yeah I said Horrible. Wiggins and Parker were the two big names and that remains true.

 It was Randle or Smart and we chose right, especially for our needs.

 Oklahoma state producing some fine defenders though.

 Per 40 Stats College sophmore year.

 Tony Allen 20.3 ppg 7rpg 4apg 2.6 spg
                     .504% .297% .675%

        Smart. 22ppg 7.2rpg 5.8apg 3.5spg
                     .422% .299% .728%

 Same college, both sophomores, very comparable numbers with Tony having a bug advantage with Fg% probably because he's a quicker and better overall athlete than Marcus.

 Same crappy 3p%, and Smart is the slightly better defender. If the Celtics new they were getting Tony Allen all over again, I say they were fine with that plain and simple.

 Even with the benefit oh Heinsight the only guys in tge discussion at #6 in the lottery were.

 #7 Randle
 #8 Stuaskas
 #9 Vonleh
 #10 Payton
 #11 Doug Mcbuckets
 #12 Saric
 #13 Lavine

 So you tell me LB, or anyone else, who the heck do you want out if that list.
I'm still fine with the pick even though Smart right now is a poor man's Tony Allen.  He's still really young.  I'm hopeful he makes a leap next year.    It's true I wanted Randle over him, but I wasn't all that upset about the pick given our roster construction at the time.  And I'm not all that upset about the pick now.  Randle has only one season under his belt and there's a chance he doesn't make significant improvements either. 

The main point was that expectations for Smart were pretty high back in 2014.  Tony Allen was seen as a worst-case scenario... and it still is.   Most people saw him as having all-star potential.  He was believed to be an NBA-ready player who would make an impact on both ends immediately despite weak shooting in College.    He's been disappointing so far, but it's still early. 

Expectations are lower for Jaylen Brown than they were from Smart.  In-part, because he's seen as a lesser prospect than Smart was.  In-part, because fans have already been burned by Smart and have lowered expectations for Jaylen as a result.   Nobody anticipates Jaylen starting anytime next year.   For the most part, people expect that he's a long-term project that hopefully makes some defensive contributions off the bench.  This should be a top team in the East without relying on Brown so he really doesn't have any pressure to perform.  When Smart entered, he was thought to be the guy who was going to take the reigns from Rondo as "the man".  Despite expectations being lower for Brown, many of us (myself included) are more excited about Jaylen Brown than we were about Smart in 2014 or Smart in 2015.   Jaylen is more mysterious.  His age adds to his allure.  His physical attributes and potential skillset are intriguing.  Yeah, he might end up more Kedrick Brown/Gerald Green than Jimmy Butler/Tracy McGrady, but right now I'm super excited to watch what he can develop into.   Despite how either Smart or Brown were looked at by experts, I have higher hopes for the raw mystery box that is Jaylen Brown than I was for the 6'4 defensive roleplaying bricklayer that people thought could develop into a star back in 2014.
Yeah but just by looking at the numbers don't you think the experts are kind of stupid for thinking that smart was going to be so much better than Tony Allen.
Well... yes...  which is why tankcity so kindly points out that I was expressing concern before Smart's rookie season that he might peak out as Tony Allen... and why I'm admitting that I'm more excited about Jaylen Brown in 2016 than I ever was in 2014 about Smart - primarily because I was never really as sold on expert predictions that Smart was going to be the next Tyreke Evans and be "the man" right out of the gate.   But as tankcity kindly points out, people were labeling me a troll for comparing Smart to Tony Allen back then (typical).  WHy?  Because the vast majority of experts and people on this forum had far, far greater expectations of Marcus SMart than him developing into the next Tony Allen.   You don't take the next Tony Allen 6th in a loaded draft.   He was widely believed to have star potential.  He still might.

That's why it's a bit concerning that we're two years into Smart's career and he's not yet as good as Tony Allen was in his prime.  We still have far greater hopes for Smart than that.  I really hope he makes a leap next year. 

And for those who are confused... yes, I'm aware you watched Tony Allen when he played on the Celtics.  From 2011-2016, Allen was a 5x All-Defense player.  His peak happened AFTER he left the Celtics, so I don't blame anyone here for being unfamiliar with it.   It would be like saying, "Jaylen Brown might be the next Joe Johnson" and someone here saying "Joe Johnson sucks!  He couldn't stay as a starter for us!"...

Tony Allen's peak:   All-Defense 1st team
Marcus Smart:  No All-Defense selection

Tony Allen career:  48% FG/28% 3P
Smart last year:  35% FG/25% 3P

We could waste more time debating if Smart is near Tony Allen's defensive role player peak right now, but it's honestly pretty depressing.  Despite my concerns at the time, most here had far greater expectations for Smart   We all hope that Smart makes a major leap past Tony Allen territory next year and makes the comp irrelevant. 

So yeah, I'm more excited about Jaylen Brown than I was about Smart despite the fact most experts saw Smart as a superior prospect than what they see Brown as.  I worried that Smart would do what he's ended up doing.   With Brown, I have some worries as well, but he's raw and young enough that I'm just excited about the unknown.
 
How dare you disrespect the holy Chad Ford Tier System? Blasphemy.

i wish some one had done a statistical analysis on the difference between fords 3 and 4th tiers players and 4th and 5th tiers. I am curious if it would approach statistical significance and what strength.
So what you're really asking is if scouts/GM's are arbitrarily deciding which players they think have "superstar" potential (Towns), all-star potential (Smart) or otherwise (Brown). 

There were only a handful of players since 2000 that I remember being labelled "potential superstars'.   Yao Ming was definitely one of them and he never totally reached that level.  LeBron was one of them.  Kevin Durant and Greg Oden got the label.  Since Ford's tier articles started, he's had the following players listed as "potential superstars" per scouts/GMs:   Anthony Davis, John Wall, Blake Griffin, Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Karl Towns, Ben Simmons

Emphasis on the word "potential".  That's how those guys were seen prior to joining the league.  Super high ceilings with varied results thus far.

Several others got the label "all-star potential" (tier 2):   Kyrie Irving, Derrick Williams, Harrison Barnes, Bradley Beal, Michael-Kidd Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson, Dante Exum, Aaron Gordon, Marcus Smart, Julius Randle, Dario Saric, Noah Vonleh, Jahlil Okafor, Kristaps Porzingus, Emmanuel Mudiay, D'Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram

There's some misses in there.  Emphasis on the word "Potential".   That's how those guys were seen prior to joining the league.  They were believed to project into all-stars.  Obviously, it's not an exact science.  Players get injured.  Players never develop.  Players lack motivation.  Other players exceed expectations and make surprising leaps in their games.  Sometimes scouts/GM's are just flat out wrong and take a bust high or see a guy like Rudy Gobert go 27th.  Nobody is denying that.   Only a complete idiot would think that the draft order is a perfect representation of how the players will rank long-term.   Some of the above players unsurprisingly failed to pan out.   Many of the guys who didn't get the "future superstar" or "future allstar" label unsurprisingly managed to get there regardless.   

Our hope is that Jaylen Brown ends up one of those players that develops into a "future allstar" despite not getting that label.  It's a fine thing to hope for.  As we all are aware, prospects of his caliber occasionally surpass expectations.  Some folks even disagree with the consensus (I remember a minority of fans being really mad Giannis fell all the way to #15).  That's all fine and dandy.  Scouts/GM's can be wrong.  Fans can be right. 

You're attacking the draft in general.  You seem disappointed that someone like Derrick Williams went #2 in the draft and didn't turn into a star as scouts/GMs believed he'd be.   I assure you, the team that selected him 2nd is even more disappointed.    You seem hurt and betrayed that someone like Andre Drummond could end up an all-star despite being selected all the way at 9th, being passed up by 8 teams who didn't see him as having as much potential as someone like Dion Waiters and Thomas Robinson.   I'm with you on that... I was hoping we'd trade for Detroit's pick on draft night so we could select Drummond. 

But you're trying to suggest this is a Chad Ford problem.  And that's wrong.   Chad Ford's draft tiers reflect how teams feel about these prospects prior the draft.   Ford didn't force anyone to take Derrick Williams 2nd.  Ford didn't force 8 teams to pass on Drummond.  It's not Chad Ford's fault that reportedly every team picking 3-8 was exploring trading down or out of a draft range believed to be weak.  It makes no sense to blame Chad Ford for this.  Retroactively looking at how these guys panned out misses the point entirely.   This thread is asking how we felt about Marcus Smart in the past.  It's not about how we feel about Marcus Smart now.   Smart was labelled a future allstar.  That's why he was taken 6th.  Don't blame Chad Ford if Marcus Smart busts.  That's not his fault.

umm you really flew off in an irrelevant direction on that. I was/am wondering if data would suggest that Chad Ford's tiers are actually a real thing between the 4th and 5th tier and the 3rd and 4th tier. That is what I wrote.

You decided you needed to go off on a long spiel about the 1st and 2nd tiers in relationship to that including players like Drummond, Waiter and Thomas Robinson? I am assuming none of those guys were in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th tiers so your comment really could not have been less relevant.

Slow down and read a little better (and type less). You can also definitely not say all 18k of your posts is a dinger cause this post was clearly a 6-4-3 double play.
I think a more important question would be whether or not there's any correlation between defensive intensity and lack of offensive production.   Do we have data to support aggressive defensive effort makes a player's field goal percentages lower?

What other irrelevant things should we talk about in this thread?

Sneak peak: Are tiers really things, or a fancy way of throwing darts: 2014

In 2014 Chad Ford had just 3 players that his system led to land in the vaunted tier 3. This tier is reserved for players that project to be as NBA starters in their careers. These 3 players were unanimous selections for this tier:

Gary Harris
Doug McDermott
Nik Stauskas

Review: As they enter the 3rd year of their career it appears that Stauskas will not be a longterm starter as he struggled to maintain a starting position on a historically bad 76ers team with his coach publicly calling out his defensive effort. Stauskas struggled with his shot all year making his monikor "sauce castillo" seem like some kind of sick joke.

Gary Harris on the other hand does project as a starter after starting 76 games and averaging 12 points a game in his sophmore year.

Doug McDermott, while less comically awful than Stauskas during his sophmore campaign, has shown the defensive limitations many feared in college and seems to project as a long term bench player.

For this tier it appears Ford will get 1 out of 3 correct. In other words, worse than a drunk flipping a coin.

Tomorrow we look at Tier 4: These players project as either starters or top-tier rotation players.
But how did they really turn out? Here is a hint: James Young is not a rotation player.
We get it... you think the draft is a crap shoot.  In which case, Jaylen Brown with the #3 pick might end up being a total bust while some scrub taken at the end of the 1st round might end up a star.   

If Furkan Korkmaz ends up 10x the player Jaylen Brown does, are you going to blame Chad Ford for putting Furkan at a tier well below Brown... or are you going to blame the wide consensus of draft experts and 25 NBA teams that passed on Furkan?   Yeah, I guess it makes the most sense to blame Chad Ford, right Clay?

I guess we should have traded Jaylen (a tier 3/4 prospect) for someone projected in tiers 5 or 6.   It's a shame that Marcus Smart (a tier 2 prospect) looks like a tier 4 prospect after the fact.   #MondayMorningQuarterback
it is not just these 3. They are all really bad when you get into tier 3 and tier 4. They are worse than if you just through darts at a board.
Clay, we are having two conversations that aren't related to each other.   If three years from now Jaylen is looking like a James Young level bust while Furkan Korkmaz (#26 pick) is tearing up the league, will your big takeaway be to criticize Ford's Draft tier article?   The draft tier article accurately reflects how scouts/GM's feel about Furkan BEFORE he was drafted.   Whether or not Furkan ends up a superstar has nothing to do with the point being made here.   Expectations are low for Furkan.   Scouts believe expectations are low for him.   25 teams apparently had low expectations for Furkan.   Ford's draft tier article reflect that consensus.   

I brought up Ford's draft tier article as a reference for how scouts/GM's saw Marcus Smart 2 years ago.   I never intended to use it as the word of god for how those players will pan out.  Nobody is trying to claim that pre-draft projections or the actual draft order predicts the future.

My point:  Smart was widely seen as a possible all-star prospect 2 years ago (we agree).  Jaylen Brown isn't widely seen as a possible all-star prospect (we agree)

Your point:  Mock drafts can't predict the future (we agree).  The draft doesn't predict the future (we agree).

We both are in agreement on both.  There's no need for us to talk about it further.  We're on the same page.

My point is relevant to this topic, because it's talking about how people felt about Smart 1-2 years ago vs how people feel about Jaylen right now.

Your point really has nothing to do with this topic.  Yes, mock drafts don't predict the future.  Congrats.  You're stating the obvious.
my point is that Chad ford draft tiers are demonstrably worse that mock drafts. That he has a supernatural ability to get things wrong.
Cool.  High five. 

Ford's tier article comes out like 2 days before the draft and as far as I can tell, does a pretty good job of figuring out which range each prospect is going in.    Feel free to share a source that does a better job of predicting how the draft order will shake out.  Then remind me again 10 months from now when it's relevant to my interests.
they have these squids in cages at the local aquarium by my house. Each year they throw some eel meat to the top of their cage and open it up the squids to eat. Attached to each squid is the name of a prospect in the draft. The squids are then marked in the order they are able to consume the eal and that is their draft slot. 4 of the last 5 years these squids have out performed fords tiers. The 5th year a small boy got into the tank and was attacked by the squids mucking up the order. You can bet I'll be there bright and early next May for annual eel feed to see how it goes in year 6. There are mumblings they may even add corn dogs and cans of Olympia beer next year for two bucks!
if the squids dont work, there are always monkeys.

"Give a monkey enough darts and they’ll beat the market. So says a draft article by Research Affiliates highlighting the simulated results of 100 monkeys throwing darts at the stock pages in a newspaper. The average monkey outperformed the index by an average of 1.7 percent per year since 1964. That’s a lot of bananas!"

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/#7ad06e436e8b
 ;D

if ford was not using monkeys, he should start soon.

Offline ManUp

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TP to Larbrd33 for patiently dealing with Celticsclay's inability to understand.

The tier of prospect you are coming out of college has nothing to do with what type of player you turn into in the NBA. Guys over and underachieve the tier they were slotted into all the time. All the tier system deals with is the expectation for the player coming out of college/fiba/etc.

Ben Simmons might become the next Magic or he might not even be Lamar Odom, but coming out of college he "Looks" closer to Magic therefore he's a tier 1 or tier 2 prospect. If he falls on his face in the league and doesn't become anything more than average it doesn't change the type of prospect he was cominging into the NBA.

(Typed off ofor my phone hopefully that was clear and simple enough).

Offline celticsclay

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TP to Larbrd33 for patiently dealing with Celticsclay's inability to understand.

The tier of prospect you are coming out of college has nothing to do with what type of player you turn into in the NBA. Guys over and underachieve the tier they were slotted into all the time. All the tier system deals with is the expectation for the player coming out of college/fiba/etc.

Ben Simmons might become the next Magic or he might not even be Lamar Odom, but coming out of college he "Looks" closer to Magic therefore he's a tier 1 or tier 2 prospect. If he falls on his face in the league and doesn't become anything more than average it doesn't change the type of prospect he was cominging into the NBA.

(Typed off ofor my phone hopefully that was clear and simple enough).

I can't say I blame you for misunderstanding my point because I have gotten pretty silly in this thread. However, the idea you present is not what i have said at any point in this thread. Larbrd has also repeatedly pretended that is my viewpoint here so that maybe what confused you also.

 I would agree Simmons is a tier 1 prospect regardless of how he does in the NBA. I actually think it is obvious and goes unsaid that there is a top level prospect. I also don't disagree that guys like AD, Wall, Lebron, Shaq, Simmons etc are all elite prospects and barring something weird will turn into all stars.

 What I disagree with is the idea that Ford really has any real idea from his column whether the lower level guys will turn into a star, rotation player or bench player.That is the part of his tiers that just hasn't born out any outcomes in reality and he would be better off not pretending he can really tell the difference. Some years, as a whole, his entire tier 4 group was significantly better than the tier 3 group on the balance. He seems to repeatedly undersell foreign players and his column becomes just an errand projection after the top handful of guys that anybody can make.  In 2014 was Elfrid Payton really a different tier prospect than Nick Stauskas? Was Doug McDermott really a higher tier prospect than Joseph Nurkic or Lavine? Was Garry Harris really a level above Porzingas? I, and many other people that follow the NBA would tell you they could see Harris being worse than Lavine or Payton or better. They really were at no time leading up the draft significantly different levels of prospects. He is pretending, or perhaps talking to a small sample of people with some association with the NBA and is using it to act like these prospects are at different levels whether they really aren't. That is the part that is obnoxious and stupid and what I have been arguing about. I don't think there is really a clear difference between whether some year Ford claims a guy is tier 3 (Brown) or someone else is Tier 2 (smart). If you look at their ratings objectively from rivals, scouts and legits sites they were always rated similar or Brown slightly higher.

Offline LarBrd33

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TP to Larbrd33 for patiently dealing with Celticsclay's inability to understand.

The tier of prospect you are coming out of college has nothing to do with what type of player you turn into in the NBA. Guys over and underachieve the tier they were slotted into all the time. All the tier system deals with is the expectation for the player coming out of college/fiba/etc.

Ben Simmons might become the next Magic or he might not even be Lamar Odom, but coming out of college he "Looks" closer to Magic therefore he's a tier 1 or tier 2 prospect. If he falls on his face in the league and doesn't become anything more than average it doesn't change the type of prospect he was cominging into the NBA.

(Typed off ofor my phone hopefully that was clear and simple enough).

I can't say I blame you for misunderstanding my point because I have gotten pretty silly in this thread. However, the idea you present is not what i have said at any point in this thread. Larbrd has also repeatedly pretended that is my viewpoint here so that maybe what confused you also.

 I would agree Simmons is a tier 1 prospect regardless of how he does in the NBA. I actually think it is obvious and goes unsaid that there is a top level prospect. I also don't disagree that guys like AD, Wall, Lebron, Shaq, Simmons etc are all elite prospects and barring something weird will turn into all stars.

 What I disagree with is the idea that Ford really has any real idea from his column whether the lower level guys will turn into a star, rotation player or bench player.That is the part of his tiers that just hasn't born out any outcomes in reality and he would be better off not pretending he can really tell the difference. Some years, as a whole, his entire tier 4 group was significantly better than the tier 3 group on the balance. He seems to repeatedly undersell foreign players and his column becomes just an errand projection after the top handful of guys that anybody can make.  In 2014 was Elfrid Payton really a different tier prospect than Nick Stauskas? Was Doug McDermott really a higher tier prospect than Joseph Nurkic or Lavine? Was Garry Harris really a level above Porzingas? I, and many other people that follow the NBA would tell you they could see Harris being worse than Lavine or Payton or better. They really were at no time leading up the draft significantly different levels of prospects. He is pretending, or perhaps talking to a small sample of people with some association with the NBA and is using it to act like these prospects are at different levels whether they really aren't. That is the part that is obnoxious and stupid and what I have been arguing about. I don't think there is really a clear difference between whether some year Ford claims a guy is tier 3 (Brown) or someone else is Tier 2 (smart). If you look at their ratings objectively from rivals, scouts and legits sites they were always rated similar or Brown slightly higher.
Can we shift our focus to debating about Rihanna vs Beyonce instead? 

Beyonce - More mass appeal, because up until recently she has scared white America less.  Iconic current pop star.  A bigger brand.

Rihanna - 5x as many hits and 6 years younger.

Discuss.   

Bonus question... how did you feel about Beyonce 6 years ago compared to how you feel about Rihanna right now.