Here's the problem. If we actually did think he wouldn't be any better than Tony Allen, I say we still draft him.
I agree we expected him to be better, but you can't knock him for drafting Tony Allen 2.0
The fact is there was no better choice at the sixth spot in that horrible draft. Yeah I said Horrible. Wiggins and Parker were the two big names and that remains true.
It was Randle or Smart and we chose right, especially for our needs.
Oklahoma state producing some fine defenders though.
Per 40 Stats College sophmore year.
Tony Allen 20.3 ppg 7rpg 4apg 2.6 spg
.504% .297% .675%
Smart. 22ppg 7.2rpg 5.8apg 3.5spg
.422% .299% .728%
Same college, both sophomores, very comparable numbers with Tony having a bug advantage with Fg% probably because he's a quicker and better overall athlete than Marcus.
Same crappy 3p%, and Smart is the slightly better defender. If the Celtics new they were getting Tony Allen all over again, I say they were fine with that plain and simple.
Even with the benefit oh Heinsight the only guys in tge discussion at #6 in the lottery were.
#7 Randle
#8 Stuaskas
#9 Vonleh
#10 Payton
#11 Doug Mcbuckets
#12 Saric
#13 Lavine
So you tell me LB, or anyone else, who the heck do you want out if that list.
I'm still fine with the pick even though Smart right now is a poor man's Tony Allen. He's still really young. I'm hopeful he makes a leap next year. It's true I wanted Randle over him, but I wasn't all that upset about the pick given our roster construction at the time. And I'm not all that upset about the pick now. Randle has only one season under his belt and there's a chance he doesn't make significant improvements either.
The main point was that expectations for Smart were pretty high back in 2014. Tony Allen was seen as a worst-case scenario... and it still is. Most people saw him as having all-star potential. He was believed to be an NBA-ready player who would make an impact on both ends immediately despite weak shooting in College. He's been disappointing so far, but it's still early.
Expectations are lower for Jaylen Brown than they were from Smart. In-part, because he's seen as a lesser prospect than Smart was. In-part, because fans have already been burned by Smart and have lowered expectations for Jaylen as a result. Nobody anticipates Jaylen starting anytime next year. For the most part, people expect that he's a long-term project that hopefully makes some defensive contributions off the bench. This should be a top team in the East without relying on Brown so he really doesn't have any pressure to perform. When Smart entered, he was thought to be the guy who was going to take the reigns from Rondo as "the man". Despite expectations being lower for Brown, many of us (myself included) are more excited about Jaylen Brown than we were about Smart in 2014 or Smart in 2015. Jaylen is more mysterious. His age adds to his allure. His physical attributes and potential skillset are intriguing. Yeah, he might end up more Kedrick Brown/Gerald Green than Jimmy Butler/Tracy McGrady, but right now I'm super excited to watch what he can develop into. Despite how either Smart or Brown were looked at by experts, I have higher hopes for the raw mystery box that is Jaylen Brown than I was for the 6'4 defensive roleplaying bricklayer that people thought could develop into a star back in 2014.
Yeah but just by looking at the numbers don't you think the experts are kind of stupid for thinking that smart was going to be so much better than Tony Allen.
Well... yes... which is why tankcity so kindly points out that I was expressing concern before Smart's rookie season that he might peak out as Tony Allen... and why I'm admitting that I'm more excited about Jaylen Brown in 2016 than I ever was in 2014 about Smart - primarily because I was never really as sold on expert predictions that Smart was going to be the next Tyreke Evans and be "the man" right out of the gate. But as tankcity kindly points out, people were labeling me a troll for comparing Smart to Tony Allen back then (typical). WHy? Because the vast majority of experts and people on this forum had far, far greater expectations of Marcus SMart than him developing into the next Tony Allen. You don't take the next Tony Allen 6th in a loaded draft. He was widely believed to have star potential. He still might.
That's why it's a bit concerning that we're two years into Smart's career and he's not yet as good as Tony Allen was in his prime. We still have far greater hopes for Smart than that. I really hope he makes a leap next year.
And for those who are confused... yes, I'm aware you watched Tony Allen when he played on the Celtics. From 2011-2016, Allen was a 5x All-Defense player. His peak happened AFTER he left the Celtics, so I don't blame anyone here for being unfamiliar with it. It would be like saying, "Jaylen Brown might be the next Joe Johnson" and someone here saying "Joe Johnson sucks! He couldn't stay as a starter for us!"...
Tony Allen's peak: All-Defense 1st team
Marcus Smart: No All-Defense selection
Tony Allen career: 48% FG/28% 3P
Smart last year: 35% FG/25% 3P
We could waste more time debating if Smart is near Tony Allen's defensive role player peak right now, but it's honestly pretty depressing. Despite my concerns at the time, most here had far greater expectations for Smart We all hope that Smart makes a major leap past Tony Allen territory next year and makes the comp irrelevant.
So yeah, I'm more excited about Jaylen Brown than I was about Smart despite the fact most experts saw Smart as a superior prospect than what they see Brown as. I worried that Smart would do what he's ended up doing. With Brown, I have some worries as well, but he's raw and young enough that I'm just excited about the unknown.
How dare you disrespect the holy Chad Ford Tier System? Blasphemy.
i wish some one had done a statistical analysis on the difference between fords 3 and 4th tiers players and 4th and 5th tiers. I am curious if it would approach statistical significance and what strength.
So what you're really asking is if scouts/GM's are arbitrarily deciding which players they think have "superstar" potential (Towns), all-star potential (Smart) or otherwise (Brown).
There were only a handful of players since 2000 that I remember being labelled "potential superstars'. Yao Ming was definitely one of them and he never totally reached that level. LeBron was one of them. Kevin Durant and Greg Oden got the label. Since Ford's tier articles started, he's had the following players listed as "potential superstars" per scouts/GMs: Anthony Davis, John Wall, Blake Griffin, Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Karl Towns, Ben Simmons
Emphasis on the word "potential". That's how those guys were seen prior to joining the league. Super high ceilings with varied results thus far.
Several others got the label "all-star potential" (tier 2): Kyrie Irving, Derrick Williams, Harrison Barnes, Bradley Beal, Michael-Kidd Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson, Dante Exum, Aaron Gordon, Marcus Smart, Julius Randle, Dario Saric, Noah Vonleh, Jahlil Okafor, Kristaps Porzingus, Emmanuel Mudiay, D'Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram
There's some misses in there. Emphasis on the word "Potential". That's how those guys were seen prior to joining the league. They were believed to project into all-stars. Obviously, it's not an exact science. Players get injured. Players never develop. Players lack motivation. Other players exceed expectations and make surprising leaps in their games. Sometimes scouts/GM's are just flat out wrong and take a bust high or see a guy like Rudy Gobert go 27th. Nobody is denying that. Only a complete idiot would think that the draft order is a perfect representation of how the players will rank long-term. Some of the above players unsurprisingly failed to pan out. Many of the guys who didn't get the "future superstar" or "future allstar" label unsurprisingly managed to get there regardless.
Our hope is that Jaylen Brown ends up one of those players that develops into a "future allstar" despite not getting that label. It's a fine thing to hope for. As we all are aware, prospects of his caliber occasionally surpass expectations. Some folks even disagree with the consensus (I remember a minority of fans being really mad Giannis fell all the way to #15). That's all fine and dandy. Scouts/GM's can be wrong. Fans can be right.
You're attacking the draft in general. You seem disappointed that someone like Derrick Williams went #2 in the draft and didn't turn into a star as scouts/GMs believed he'd be. I assure you, the team that selected him 2nd is even more disappointed. You seem hurt and betrayed that someone like Andre Drummond could end up an all-star despite being selected all the way at 9th, being passed up by 8 teams who didn't see him as having as much potential as someone like Dion Waiters and Thomas Robinson. I'm with you on that... I was hoping we'd trade for Detroit's pick on draft night so we could select Drummond.
But you're trying to suggest this is a Chad Ford problem. And that's wrong. Chad Ford's draft tiers reflect how teams feel about these prospects prior the draft. Ford didn't force anyone to take Derrick Williams 2nd. Ford didn't force 8 teams to pass on Drummond. It's not Chad Ford's fault that reportedly every team picking 3-8 was exploring trading down or out of a draft range believed to be weak. It makes no sense to blame Chad Ford for this. Retroactively looking at how these guys panned out misses the point entirely. This thread is asking how we felt about Marcus Smart in the past. It's not about how we feel about Marcus Smart now. Smart was labelled a future allstar. That's why he was taken 6th. Don't blame Chad Ford if Marcus Smart busts. That's not his fault.
umm you really flew off in an irrelevant direction on that. I was/am wondering if data would suggest that Chad Ford's tiers are actually a real thing between the 4th and 5th tier and the 3rd and 4th tier. That is what I wrote.
You decided you needed to go off on a long spiel about the 1st and 2nd tiers in relationship to that including players like Drummond, Waiter and Thomas Robinson? I am assuming none of those guys were in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th tiers so your comment really could not have been less relevant.
Slow down and read a little better (and type less). You can also definitely not say all 18k of your posts is a dinger cause this post was clearly a 6-4-3 double play.
I think a more important question would be whether or not there's any correlation between defensive intensity and lack of offensive production. Do we have data to support aggressive defensive effort makes a player's field goal percentages lower?
What other irrelevant things should we talk about in this thread?
Sneak peak: Are tiers really things, or a fancy way of throwing darts: 2014
In 2014 Chad Ford had just 3 players that his system led to land in the vaunted tier 3. This tier is reserved for players that project to be as NBA starters in their careers. These 3 players were unanimous selections for this tier:
Gary Harris
Doug McDermott
Nik Stauskas
Review: As they enter the 3rd year of their career it appears that Stauskas will not be a longterm starter as he struggled to maintain a starting position on a historically bad 76ers team with his coach publicly calling out his defensive effort. Stauskas struggled with his shot all year making his monikor "sauce castillo" seem like some kind of sick joke.
Gary Harris on the other hand does project as a starter after starting 76 games and averaging 12 points a game in his sophmore year.
Doug McDermott, while less comically awful than Stauskas during his sophmore campaign, has shown the defensive limitations many feared in college and seems to project as a long term bench player.
For this tier it appears Ford will get 1 out of 3 correct. In other words, worse than a drunk flipping a coin.
Tomorrow we look at Tier 4: These players project as either starters or top-tier rotation players.
But how did they really turn out? Here is a hint: James Young is not a rotation player.
Topic: Are you more excited about seeing Brown than you were about seeing Marcus... (Read 39459 times)