Are you more excited about seeing Brown than you were about seeing Marcus...

[vjcsmoke]

Another way to look at it, is that the Celtics came away with one of the top 7 best rated rookies of the entire draft class.

Which is not a bad result considering we were in no position to select either player #1 or player #2.  And even Simmons and Ingram have question marks.  Simmons can't shoot and Ingram is too weak/skinny/not all that explosive.

Finally, keep in mind that these are scout opinions.  Players regularly exceed or underperform scout expectations/ratings after the draft is concluded.

The infamous Tiers rating article.
http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/rating-simmons-ingram-draft-prospects-tier-tier/story?id=39934973

IMO if Jaylen Brown turns into a legit top starting NBA small forward, that's a win.  If he blossoms into an all-star small forward, then it's a tremendous win.  Either way the Celtics added a building block to a playoff contending team.  JB has a pretty high ceiling imo, and he seems to have a better mental makeup than Jeff Green so far.

So take Jeff Green's athleticism and add a real basketball mind/heart/attitude into the equation and you might come away with a really good player.  Let's see what happens shall we?

[LarBrd33]

Another way to look at it, is that the Celtics came away with one of the top 7 best rated rookies of the entire draft class.

Which is not a bad result considering we were in no position to select either player #1 or player #2.  And even Simmons and Ingram have question marks.  Simmons can't shoot and Ingram is too weak/skinny/not all that explosive.

Finally, keep in mind that these are scout opinions.  Players regularly exceed or underperform scout expectations/ratings after the draft is concluded.

The infamous Tiers rating article.
http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/rating-simmons-ingram-draft-prospects-tier-tier/story?id=39934973

IMO if Jaylen Brown turns into a legit top starting NBA small forward, that's a win.  If he blossoms into an all-star small forward, then it's a tremendous win.  Either way the Celtics added a building block to a playoff contending team.  JB has a pretty high ceiling imo, and he seems to have a better mental makeup than Jeff Green so far.

So take Jeff Green's athleticism and add a real basketball mind/heart/attitude into the equation and you might come away with a really good player.  Let's see what happens shall we?

TP.   I agree with all of that.  I'm super excited to watch Jaylen develop.  I have very little early expectations of him, but long-term I want to believe the sky is the limit.  If he ends up Jeff Green with better defense/motivation, that's probably an all-star.   I was happy with the pick.  He's raw, but there's a chance he's going to be special long-term. 

I'm also still excited about Smart, though if he doesn't improve his shooting dramatically in year 3, I'll lose most of the faith I had left in his long-term two-way potential.

[tankcity!]

Alright guys.  There's some really great points in this thread.  I'd like to take a moment to give credit to some of them.

#1 - I agree that Marcus Smart was considered a better prospect in 2014 than Brown was in 2016.  2014 was believed at the time to be a tremendous draft.  Smart was thought to have all-star potential.  He was believed to be NBA ready.   Brown is seen as a lesser prospect from a lesser draft.  Expectations are lower for Brown in the short term because he's thought to be less NBA ready.  Brown isn't widely expected to develop into an all star.  TP.

#2 -  Great point that Chad Ford's draft tiers reflect how scouts and execs feel about prospects prior to the draft.  You'll see similar consensus opinions from every other draft related source.  Smart was seen as a tier-2 prospect (potential all star).  Jaylen brown is seen as a tier 3/4 prospect (future starter/rotation player).  A lot of sources felt brown was a reach at #3.   If 2014 Smart and 2016 Brown were coming out in the same draft, I have to admit that Smart would go ahead of Brown.

#3 - Despite expectations, I'm more exited about Brown than I was about Smart.  The unknown is intriguing.  Also, expectations are often subverted.  Such was the case with players like Giannis (who went 15th and surpassed expectations) and such has been the case with Smart thus far (a very disappointing first two years).  So I'm banking on Brown defying expectations and developing into a superstar some day.  I know it's super unlikely, but I'm hoping for the best and I'm excited about his long term future. 

#4 - Excellent point on Ford's sources. I admit it's true that what rival GM's think of okafor's trade value has nothing to do with how Okafor will develop long term and whether or not Philly will trade him for a small pittance.  I've never doubted that ford's sources are telling him okafor has minimal trade value.  Obviously his trade value has taken a hit.   The point I've made is that Philly is unlikely to trade him away unless they get what they think he is worth.  So far, he hasn't been traded... So all these rival GM's saying how worthless he is hardly matters if those teams can't acquire him for their weak offers.  Tommy point.

#5 -  Yes, I agree that it's possible to quantify expectations between draft classes.  Yes, this is different than our expectations years later.  A great example:  Bucks fans were undoubtedly more excited about Jabari Parker in 2014 (#2 pick with huge expectations) than they were about Giannis in 2013 (#15 pick who at the time had far less expectations).  If you poll that fan base now, you might find a lot of them are far more excited about Giannis.   I agree we shouldn't ignore that point.  The expectations for Lebron James were significantly higher than the expectations for Anthony Bennett despite the fact they were both #1 picks by the Cavs.  The expectations for Dwyane Wade in 2003 were significantly higher than Cody Zeller in 2014 despite the fact Wade was a #5 pick and Zeller was a #4 pick.  And the expectations for Marcus smart were higher than the expectations for Jaylen brown despite the fact brown was a #3 pick.   Good news is, you don't have to agree with expectations. I'm sure there is someone out there that immediately thought Giannis was going to be a superstar and thought Jabari Parker was overrated. 

#6. Yes, it's way too early to call philly a failure or a success.  Several of their key players have yet to play a basketball game.  I agree that the super tanking method was intriguing and they are currently loaded with some prospects that could develop into superstars as a result.  Who knows if the process will work out, but it's hard not to be a little impressed with what they accomplished so far.   Hopefully they fail. 

#7  Thank you for the thoughtful PMs and compliments, but really I just need to reiterate that I'm just some random dumb Celtic fan. I never set out to have a following or fan club, so it's a little embarrassing when people tell me how much they enjoy my posts.  I just share my opinion of the team and post here for my own entertainment and because I love the Celtics and the NBA in general.  I think it's great if people disagree with me because it sparks discussion.  It's weird to me that people remember so many of my posts... I have a real hard time distinguishing one person from another on this forum. I probably couldn't tell you one way or the other how a certain member of this forum feels about a given topic. I just respond to the text as I see it without consideration for what that person may have said in the past.   Thanks nonetheless, but seriously there are a few members here who probably know way more about basketball than I do.  I wish they would post more and lurk less.

#8 I agree that the conversation about okafor was off topic and unnecessary. It seemed intended to side track this thread which is intended to be about excitement/expectations about Jaylen brown and Marcus smart.   I tried my best to avoid the tired old okafor conversation, but oh well.  I agree that my responses should put that side topic to rest so we can focus on what matters. 

Thanks guys.  It's a lot to think about.  This is a great forum.   I'm pumped for the upcoming season.  I'm hopeful smart makes a leap in year 3 and brown turns into a star long term.  TPs all around.

Thanks Lbbrd. This is a great post. I think people should move on now.

[LarBrd33]

Alright guys.  There's some really great points in this thread.  I'd like to take a moment to give credit to some of them.

#1 - I agree that Marcus Smart was considered a better prospect in 2014 than Brown was in 2016.  2014 was believed at the time to be a tremendous draft.  Smart was thought to have all-star potential.  He was believed to be NBA ready.   Brown is seen as a lesser prospect from a lesser draft.  Expectations are lower for Brown in the short term because he's thought to be less NBA ready.  Brown isn't widely expected to develop into an all star.  TP.

#2 -  Great point that Chad Ford's draft tiers reflect how scouts and execs feel about prospects prior to the draft.  You'll see similar consensus opinions from every other draft related source.  Smart was seen as a tier-2 prospect (potential all star).  Jaylen brown is seen as a tier 3/4 prospect (future starter/rotation player).  A lot of sources felt brown was a reach at #3.   If 2014 Smart and 2016 Brown were coming out in the same draft, I have to admit that Smart would go ahead of Brown.

#3 - Despite expectations, I'm more exited about Brown than I was about Smart.  The unknown is intriguing.  Also, expectations are often subverted.  Such was the case with players like Giannis (who went 15th and surpassed expectations) and such has been the case with Smart thus far (a very disappointing first two years).  So I'm banking on Brown defying expectations and developing into a superstar some day.  I know it's super unlikely, but I'm hoping for the best and I'm excited about his long term future. 

#4 - Excellent point on Ford's sources. I admit it's true that what rival GM's think of okafor's trade value has nothing to do with how Okafor will develop long term and whether or not Philly will trade him for a small pittance.  I've never doubted that ford's sources are telling him okafor has minimal trade value.  Obviously his trade value has taken a hit.   The point I've made is that Philly is unlikely to trade him away unless they get what they think he is worth.  So far, he hasn't been traded... So all these rival GM's saying how worthless he is hardly matters if those teams can't acquire him for their weak offers.  Tommy point.

#5 -  Yes, I agree that it's possible to quantify expectations between draft classes.  Yes, this is different than our expectations years later.  A great example:  Bucks fans were undoubtedly more excited about Jabari Parker in 2014 (#2 pick with huge expectations) than they were about Giannis in 2013 (#15 pick who at the time had far less expectations).  If you poll that fan base now, you might find a lot of them are far more excited about Giannis.   I agree we shouldn't ignore that point.  The expectations for Lebron James were significantly higher than the expectations for Anthony Bennett despite the fact they were both #1 picks by the Cavs.  The expectations for Dwyane Wade in 2003 were significantly higher than Cody Zeller in 2014 despite the fact Wade was a #5 pick and Zeller was a #4 pick.  And the expectations for Marcus smart were higher than the expectations for Jaylen brown despite the fact brown was a #3 pick.   Good news is, you don't have to agree with expectations. I'm sure there is someone out there that immediately thought Giannis was going to be a superstar and thought Jabari Parker was overrated. 

#6. Yes, it's way too early to call philly a failure or a success.  Several of their key players have yet to play a basketball game.  I agree that the super tanking method was intriguing and they are currently loaded with some prospects that could develop into superstars as a result.  Who knows if the process will work out, but it's hard not to be a little impressed with what they accomplished so far.   Hopefully they fail. 

#7  Thank you for the thoughtful PMs and compliments, but really I just need to reiterate that I'm just some random dumb Celtic fan. I never set out to have a following or fan club, so it's a little embarrassing when people tell me how much they enjoy my posts.  I just share my opinion of the team and post here for my own entertainment and because I love the Celtics and the NBA in general.  I think it's great if people disagree with me because it sparks discussion.  It's weird to me that people remember so many of my posts... I have a real hard time distinguishing one person from another on this forum. I probably couldn't tell you one way or the other how a certain member of this forum feels about a given topic. I just respond to the text as I see it without consideration for what that person may have said in the past.   Thanks nonetheless, but seriously there are a few members here who probably know way more about basketball than I do.  I wish they would post more and lurk less.

#8 I agree that the conversation about okafor was off topic and unnecessary. It seemed intended to side track this thread which is intended to be about excitement/expectations about Jaylen brown and Marcus smart.   I tried my best to avoid the tired old okafor conversation, but oh well.  I agree that my responses should put that side topic to rest so we can focus on what matters. 

Thanks guys.  It's a lot to think about.  This is a great forum.   I'm pumped for the upcoming season.  I'm hopeful smart makes a leap in year 3 and brown turns into a star long term.  TPs all around.

Thanks Lbbrd. This is a great post. I think people should move on now.

TP.  Hopefully that cleared things up.  Can't wait for the season to start.  I'm really excited to watch Jaylen evolve.  He's a low CP/high IV dratini with the potential to be a near-perfect dragonite if powered up with enough poke-candy and stardust.    Exciting times.

EDIT:  Wow.  18,000 posts.  Every one of them a Home Dinger.   Incredible. 

[DrJasper]

Just ordered a jaylen brown jersey, I hope the gamble pays off 
I'm confindent that he can be an all star, but if he fails (or gets traded) I still have a dee brown jersey  -nothing to loose 

[jpotter33]

I'll never understand why such intelligent people keep missing the bus here. By attempting to call him out for hypocrisy, you play right into his hand of developing a ton of attention to his threads/posts. That's what he wants, he's even banking on it. It brings him the attention he's craving for personal / professional gains; ironically, without it, there'd be no LB conundrum (i.e., he's such a good/high-upside poster, but horrible troll).

If it bothers you that much, put your efforts to ignoring him. Regardless of his primary motivation, it is glaringly apparent that he feeds off arousing emotions in others. It gives him a sense of control -- "Look how powerful I am... half the forum, including top posters, are dysregulated by me yet again." Quit feeding his narcissistic supply.

[celticsclay]

Alright guys.  There's some really great points in this thread.  I'd like to take a moment to give credit to some of them.


#2 -  Great point that Chad Ford's draft tiers reflect how scouts and execs feel about prospects prior to the draft.  You'll see similar consensus opinions from every other draft related source.  Smart was seen as a tier-2 prospect (potential all star).  Jaylen brown is seen as a tier 3/4 prospect (future starter/rotation player).  A lot of sources felt brown was a reach at #3.   If 2014 Smart and 20
#4 - Excellent point on Ford's sources. I admit it's true that what rival GM's think of okafor's trade value has nothing to do with how Okafor will develop long term and whether or not Philly will trade him for a small pittance.  I've never doubted that ford's sources are telling him okafor has minimal trade value.  Obviously his trade value has taken a hit.   The point I've made is that Philly is unlikely to trade him away unless they get what they think he is worth.  So far, he hasn't been traded... So all these rival GM's saying how worthless he is hardly matters if those teams can't acquire him for their weak offers.  Tommy point.




#7  Thank you for the thoughtful PMs and compliments, but really I just need to reiterate that I'm just some random dumb Celtic fan. I never set out to have a following or fan club, so it's a little embarrassing when people tell me how much they enjoy my posts.  I just share my opinion of the team and post here for my own entertainment and because I love the Celtics and the NBA in general.  I think it's great if people disagree with me because it sparks discussion.  It's weird to me that people remember so many of my posts... I have a real hard time distinguishing one person from another on this forum. I probably couldn't tell you one way or the other how a certain member of this forum feels about a given topic. I just respond to the text as I see it without consideration for what that person may have said in the past.   Thanks nonetheless, but seriously there are a few members here who probably know way more about basketball than I do.  I wish they would post more and lurk less.

Thanks guys.  It's a lot to think about.  This is a great forum.   I'm pumped for the upcoming season.  I'm hopeful smart makes a leap in year 3 and brown turns into a star long term.  TPs all around.

Related to number 4 I must admit whether some unnamed scouts or executives feel smart was more likely to be an all star than brown at a specific point in time has nothing to do with whether they will develop long term or what they may fetch in a trade.

Related to number 7 I wanted to thank my legions of fans and supporters for their well wishes, thoughtful pms, gift cards and other forms of support. It really means a lot to me, but I am no greater than the rest of you. Alone I am nothing. With you I have strength.

[LarBrd33]

I must admit whether some unnamed scouts or executives feel smart was more likely to be an all star than brown at a specific point in time has nothing to do with whether they will develop long term or what they may fetch in a trade.

Yup.  And if you want to discuss Brown vs Smart's long term potential or trade value heading forward, I encourage you to start a thread about it. 

But since this thread is literally asking how people perceive Brown in 2016 vs how people perceived Smart in 2014 and comparing your levels of excitement between the two, it's important to be honest about it.   You probably could have saved us both a lot of time by just admitting you agreed with both of these points up front. 

Yes, Smart was seen as a better prospect than Brown is currently seen.    Yes, it doesn't matter how either of those guys were (or are) seen.  Personally, I'm more excited about Brown in spite of the fact he's considered a lesser prospect than what Smart was prior to his rough start.

Of course, this is pretty much exactly what I've been saying from my very first post in this thread.  Per usual, there's 8 pages of nonsense to get right back to the same points I made in the very first response to this thread:

I think Smart was seen as a higher quality prospect than Jaylen Brown is. 

...
Despite this, guys can always disappoint or exceed expectations.

...

Hopefully Brown vastly surpasses what people think he'll be.  The fact that he's 19 and shows some raw ability has me really excited to watch him develop.  I'm looking forward to seeing what he turns into long-term.

[tarheelsxxiii]

I'll never understand why such intelligent people keep missing the bus here. By attempting to call him out for hypocrisy, you play right into his hand of developing a ton of attention to his threads/posts. That's what he wants, he's even banking on it. It brings him the attention he's craving for personal / professional gains; ironically, without it, there'd be no LB conundrum (i.e., he's such a good/high-upside poster, but horrible troll).

If it bothers you that much, put your efforts to ignoring him. Regardless of his primary motivation, it is glaringly apparent that he feeds off arousing emotions in others. It gives him a sense of control -- "Look how powerful I am... half the forum, including top posters, are dysregulated by me yet again." Quit feeding his narcissistic supply.

Lol. Life is hard, jp. All we can do is keep fighting the good fight (world vs. LarBrd). JK, LrBrd -- I actually like you, and you know that. The railroading gets frustrating, though, especially when it becomes a distraction to the board.

[BlastFromThePast]

I'll never understand why such intelligent people keep missing the bus here. By attempting to call him out for hypocrisy, you play right into his hand of developing a ton of attention to his threads/posts. That's what he wants, he's even banking on it. It brings him the attention he's craving for personal / professional gains; ironically, without it, there'd be no LB conundrum (i.e., he's such a good/high-upside poster, but horrible troll).

If it bothers you that much, put your efforts to ignoring him. Regardless of his primary motivation, it is glaringly apparent that he feeds off arousing emotions in others. It gives him a sense of control -- "Look how powerful I am... half the forum, including top posters, are dysregulated by me yet again." Quit feeding his narcissistic supply.

The Amy Poehler gif conjured up a different visual than perhaps you intended.   

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

LEAVE LARBRD ALOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNEEEEEEEE!!

[footey]

I would be shocked if Brown did not emerge as a significantly better offensive player than Smart.

[LarBrd33]

I would be shocked if Brown did not emerge as a significantly better offensive player than Smart.

At this point, I can't imagine anyone disagreeing.  Smart was historically bad offensively last year.  Expectations were sky high in 2014.  Now, if Smart ever manages to average 10+ points on 40% shooting, people will consider it a win.

[tarheelsxxiii]

I've been disappointed with Smart from day one. But as I mentioned earlier in the thread, I do think he was overrated coming out of school, and I suspect that had to do with the perceived strength of his draft class. Despite the notion that Ford's ranking system is meant to be objective, it also seems very plausible that being a solid recruit in a highly-touted draft class could skew the perceptions of GMs, scouts, and authors of tier ranking systems. It's human nature. Folks here are already naturally questioning the advertised strength of this '17 class. I'm super excited about it, and bought in, but it's very well possible that its strength has been overestimated.

[GetLucky]

This entire argument was about why a man had an opinion two years ago, as if hindsight could make him change his past self's mind.

Ironically enough, he used Chad Ford's rankings to solidify his past self's opinion.