Author Topic: Are you more excited about seeing Brown than you were about seeing Marcus...  (Read 39171 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Eddie20

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8497
  • Tommy Points: 975
I skimmed the last couple pages.  Saw my name a bunch.  Instead of responding to everyone, I'll keep it simple.

Translation: Celticsclay called me out and I don't know how to respond to that, so here, let me say a bunch of irrelevant stuff I've already said before.
Haha I am glad someone else noticed it. My points were pretty straight forward and valid and I guess without a valid response he slithered off into a topic change with his tail between his legs. TP for noticing.
Clay, I assume you wrote more of the same.  I didn't read it.  Rather stick on topic this time.  Ping me if you have a direct question.

 i did ping you, but others would like to see your answer to this inconsistency. In simple terms


1) chad ford presents tiers as way of projecting career path - larbrd says this is good and presents as evidence
2) chad ford says okafor trade value low, sixers cant get top 6 pick in draft, ranks him 6th in rookie class - larbrd says chad ford is making up stuff and idiot
3) celticsclay and rest of forum =  :o
You can stomp your feet and try to discredit Chad Ford's reporting in general... and that's fine.  But until someone else claims to speak directly to a ton of scouts/gms to form a consensus "Tier" article, he's our Go-To.  And discrediting Chad Ford's reporting isn't going to change the fact that the Brown selection at #3 was widely seen by the majority of people covering the draft as a reach.   The majority of the media had him going later than #3.   Why?  Because that's the info they got from scouts/gms... just like Ford.   


Wow, you write a lot. Trimming the fat off your overly verbose post, if the bolded part is true, then you wouldn't "stomp your feet and try to discredit Ford" when he says:

I think that the Sixers and I both believed that the most valuable asset they had other than the No. 1 pick was [Jahlil] Okafor. I think that now, several weeks of gauging that interest around the league has led them to the conclusion that he might not be as valuable as they once thought.

Because as you said he speaks to a lot of GM's/Scouts.

Offline celticsclay

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15720
  • Tommy Points: 1386
Again lrbrd you have made a lot of noise to try and change the topic. You believe chad ford when he says he talks to insiders to form draft tiers. You don't believe him when he says he talks to insiders to form his value of okafor and his ranking in the league. Which part, if any of this, is false?

Offline celticsclay

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15720
  • Tommy Points: 1386
I skimmed the last couple pages.  Saw my name a bunch.  Instead of responding to everyone, I'll keep it simple.

Translation: Celticsclay called me out and I don't know how to respond to that, so here, let me say a bunch of irrelevant stuff I've already said before.

x2

Offline Eddie20

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8497
  • Tommy Points: 975
I skimmed the last couple pages.  Saw my name a bunch.  Instead of responding to everyone, I'll keep it simple.

Translation: Celticsclay called me out and I don't know how to respond to that, so here, let me say a bunch of irrelevant stuff I've already said before.
Haha I am glad someone else noticed it. My points were pretty straight forward and valid and I guess without a valid response he slithered off into a topic change with his tail between his legs. TP for noticing.

I'll give LB the benefit of the doubt since he's a very busy guy and just probably posting on some Sixers board. You have to give the guy credit. He may write a lot of nonsense, but he sure writes a lot. His word per post is unrivaled.
Eddie, you love to take not-so-subtle digs at my personal life.  It's cute.  You'd hate me so much if you actually knew what my life was like.  If in your mind, my world revolves around a love of the 76ers, I think that's terrific.

What dig? I'm just saying you post a lot, which is true considering your nearly 18K posts, the majority of which are in essay like length. Posting = time, which you seem to have an abundance of being able to generate so many posts. You also talk about the Sixers a lot (also true) and have often said things like "Sixers fans on their board...", so it's only logical to think you post there as well. If not, and you only silently lurk, then my apologies in thinking you would share your flair of pompous overly wordy thoughts with the masses. No hate at all. I wish I had so much disposable time to waste, I would just probably use it in different ways, but to each their own.

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
I skimmed the last couple pages.  Saw my name a bunch.  Instead of responding to everyone, I'll keep it simple.

Translation: Celticsclay called me out and I don't know how to respond to that, so here, let me say a bunch of irrelevant stuff I've already said before.
Haha I am glad someone else noticed it. My points were pretty straight forward and valid and I guess without a valid response he slithered off into a topic change with his tail between his legs. TP for noticing.

TP back at ya man. LarBrd makes good posts here (for the most part), but when there's evidence against what he's saying, he completely ignores it. It's a shame, it prevents some good discussion.
It's literally a straw man argument.   Instead of addressing my actual point, they are trying to argue something else. 

Clay thinks that because Jeff Whitey was lumped into the same "tier" as the Giannis "The Greek Freak", it invalidates my point.   It doesn't.  What he's arguing is an entirely different discussion.  Why would I waste my time addressing this when it has jack squat to do with what were talking about?

But because we're seeing a little Huey, Dewie and Louie action here, I'll address Clay's straw man.

Does Giannis being in the same "tier" pre-draft as Jeff Whitey disprove that Ford's article relays how scouts/Gm's feel about scouts BEFORE THEY ENTER THE DRAFT?.... NOPE.

Ford's article relays what he hears from scouts/GMs before the draft.   In 2013 they had no single player in the top 2 tiers (potential franchise player or all-star).   It was widely seen as a weak draft (is anyone disagreeing with that?).   Ford had 6 players in Tier-3, and 6 players in Tier-4.  The actually draft fell in line with this. 

There were a total of 25 players listed in "Tier 5" that year.  Here was Ford's commentary:

Quote
This next group is the largest Tier 5 I've ever had, and it shows where the strength of the draft is. There is incredible depth here, and it's not uncommon to hear teams say that the player you draft at No. 35 might be as good as the player you get at No. 15. There is a whopping 25 players in this group. At least seven of these players won't hear their names called in the first round.

A few teams had Antetokounmpo, Karasev, Muhammad and Nogueira in Tier 4, but not quite enough for them to make the cut. Interestingly, Ledo got two votes for Tier 4 and is a guy who clearly has been impressing people in workouts.

Antetokoumpo was actually the top name listed in that Tier (13th on the entire list).


LarBrd33's Point:
We can use Ford's draft tier article to get a sense of how scouts/GMs felt about prospects before they entered the draft.   OBVIOUSLY, players can exceed expectations or disappoint after the fact.

LarBrd33's Evidence: Did Ford's 2013 draft tier article accurately depict how scouts/Gms felt about those prospects at the time?   Sure.  He had Giannis as a Tier 5 prospect going somewhere between #13 and #35.  Giannis went 15th.   

Relevancy to Discussion:  The thread is asking if we are more excited about Brown than we were about Marcus in 2014.   I think accurately understanding what expectations were like in 2014 vs right now are incredibly relevant.  If you were to ask the Cavs if they were more excited about LeBron in 2003 vs Anthony Bennett in 2013 (both #1 picks), there is no question they would have been more excited about LeBron.   Nobody in their right mind would have been more excited about a lowly prospect like Anthony Bennett compared to a potential franchise player like LeBron.   If you're asking me if I'm more excited about Brown now, I think it's fair to point out that expectations for Brown are lesser than expectations were for Marcus Smart.   Despite this, my PERSONAL expectations actually run counter to this.  Even though Smart was seen as a superior prospect to Brown, I'm actually more excited about Brown.


Clay's Point: Ignoring the premise of this thread and instead attempting to derail the conversation to attack Chad Ford, he's pointed out that Giannis Antetokounmpo has vastly surpassed expectations.  And that if you look at those Draft tiers after the fact, you'll see various names like Rudy Gobert who have surpassed expectations and several players like Greg Oden who have disappointed.   

Clay's Evidence:  Various anecdotal evidence that Ford's draft Tier article is incapable of telling the future.

Relevance to this Discussion:  None whatsoever.  Nobody is disputing that players often surpass expectations or disappoint.  I was quick to make this point right from the start when I pointed out that Smart, despite being seen as a superior prospect in 2014 to Brown in 2016, has dramatically disappointed.    Clay's point/evidence is entirely irrelevant to this discussion beyond trying to discredit Ford's reporting in general.  Unfortunately, by using a player like Giannis to argue his point, he actually re-enforces my own.   Yes, Giannis was seen as a Tier 5 prospect.  Yes, this is why he was drafted all the way at #15 instead of #1.   Yes, players can exceed expectations.  Yes, I hope Jaylen is one of those players who ends up exceeding expectations like Giannis, because right now he's seen as a Tier3/4 prospect while Smart was a seen as a Tier 2 prospect. 

I think that should sufficiently address the comments.


Offline celticsclay

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15720
  • Tommy Points: 1386
I skimmed the last couple pages.  Saw my name a bunch.  Instead of responding to everyone, I'll keep it simple.

Translation: Celticsclay called me out and I don't know how to respond to that, so here, let me say a bunch of irrelevant stuff I've already said before.
Haha I am glad someone else noticed it. My points were pretty straight forward and valid and I guess without a valid response he slithered off into a topic change with his tail between his legs. TP for noticing.

TP back at ya man. LarBrd makes good posts here (for the most part), but when there's evidence against what he's saying, he completely ignores it. It's a shame, it prevents some good discussion.
It's literally a straw man argument.   Instead of addressing my actual point, they are trying to argue something else. 

Clay thinks that because Jeff Whitey was lumped into the same "tier" as the Giannis "The Greek Freak", it invalidates my point.   It doesn't.  What he's arguing is an entirely different discussion.  Why would I waste my time addressing this when it has jack squat to do with what were talking about?

But because we're seeing a little Huey, Dewie and Louie action here, I'll address Clay's straw man.

Does Giannis being in the same "tier" pre-draft as Jeff Whitey disprove that Ford's article relays how scouts/Gm's feel about scouts BEFORE THEY ENTER THE DRAFT?.... NOPE.

Ford's article relays what he hears from scouts/GMs before the draft.   In 2013 they had no single player in the top 2 tiers (potential franchise player or all-star).   It was widely seen as a weak draft (is anyone disagreeing with that?).   Ford had 6 players in Tier-3, and 6 players in Tier-4.  The actually draft fell in line with this. 

There were a total of 25 players listed in "Tier 5" that year.  Here was Ford's commentary:

Quote
This next group is the largest Tier 5 I've ever had, and it shows where the strength of the draft is. There is incredible depth here, and it's not uncommon to hear teams say that the player you draft at No. 35 might be as good as the player you get at No. 15. There is a whopping 25 players in this group. At least seven of these players won't hear their names called in the first round.

A few teams had Antetokounmpo, Karasev, Muhammad and Nogueira in Tier 4, but not quite enough for them to make the cut. Interestingly, Ledo got two votes for Tier 4 and is a guy who clearly has been impressing people in workouts.

Antetokoumpo was actually the top name listed in that Tier (13th on the entire list).


LarBrd33's Point:
We can use Ford's draft tier article to get a sense of how scouts/GMs felt about prospects before they entered the draft.   OBVIOUSLY, players can exceed expectations or disappoint after the fact.

LarBrd33's Evidence: Did Ford's 2013 draft tier article accurately depict how scouts/Gms felt about those prospects at the time?   Sure.  He had Giannis as a Tier 5 prospect going somewhere between #13 and #35.  Giannis went 15th.   

Relevancy to Discussion:  The thread is asking if we are more excited about Brown than we were about Marcus in 2014.   I think accurately understanding what expectations were like in 2014 vs right now are incredibly relevant.  If you were to ask the Cavs if they were more excited about LeBron in 2003 vs Anthony Bennett in 2013 (both #1 picks), there is no question they would have been more excited about LeBron.   Nobody in their right mind would have been more excited about a lowly prospect like Anthony Bennett compared to a potential franchise player like LeBron.   If you're asking me if I'm more excited about Brown now, I think it's fair to point out that expectations for Brown are lesser than expectations were for Marcus Smart.   Despite this, my PERSONAL expectations actually run counter to this.  Even though Smart was seen as a superior prospect to Brown, I'm actually more excited about Brown.


Clay's Point: Ignoring the premise of this thread and instead attempting to derail the conversation to attack Chad Ford, he's pointed out that Giannis Antetokounmpo has vastly surpassed expectations.  And that if you look at those Draft tiers after the fact, you'll see various names like Rudy Gobert who have surpassed expectations and several players like Greg Oden who have disappointed.   

Clay's Evidence:  Various anecdotal evidence that Ford's draft Tier article is incapable of telling the future.

Relevance to this Discussion:  None whatsoever.  Nobody is disputing that players often surpass expectations or disappoint.  I was quick to make this point right from the start when I pointed out that Smart, despite being seen as a superior prospect in 2014 to Brown in 2016, has dramatically disappointed.    Clay's point/evidence is entirely irrelevant to this discussion beyond trying to discredit Ford's reporting in general.  Unfortunately, by using a player like Giannis to argue his point, he actually re-enforces my own.   Yes, Giannis was seen as a Tier 5 prospect.  Yes, this is why he was drafted all the way at #15 instead of #1.   Yes, players can exceed expectations.  Yes, I hope Jaylen is one of those players who ends up exceeding expectations like Giannis, because right now he's seen as a Tier3/4 prospect while Smart was a seen as a Tier 2 prospect. 

I think that should sufficiently address the comments.

again you have said ford has no credibility when he discusses okafor repeatedly (including a month ago) but somehow ford has credibility on this. I'm calling out on that nonsense. How many times do i have to write that simple point? You keep making noises to distract from that, fortunately everyone here can see what you are doing.

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
I skimmed the last couple pages.  Saw my name a bunch.  Instead of responding to everyone, I'll keep it simple.

Translation: Celticsclay called me out and I don't know how to respond to that, so here, let me say a bunch of irrelevant stuff I've already said before.
Haha I am glad someone else noticed it. My points were pretty straight forward and valid and I guess without a valid response he slithered off into a topic change with his tail between his legs. TP for noticing.

I'll give LB the benefit of the doubt since he's a very busy guy and just probably posting on some Sixers board. You have to give the guy credit. He may write a lot of nonsense, but he sure writes a lot. His word per post is unrivaled.
Eddie, you love to take not-so-subtle digs at my personal life.  It's cute.  You'd hate me so much if you actually knew what my life was like.  If in your mind, my world revolves around a love of the 76ers, I think that's terrific.

What dig? I'm just saying you post a lot, which is true considering your nearly 18K posts, the majority of which are in essay like length. Posting = time, which you seem to have an abundance of being able to generate so many posts. You also talk about the Sixers a lot (also true) and have often said things like "Sixers fans on their board...", so it's only logical to think you post there as well. If not, and you only silently lurk, then my apologies in thinking you would share your flair of pompous overly wordy thoughts with the masses. No hate at all. I wish I had so much disposable time to waste, I would just probably use it in different ways, but to each their own.
Hate/blatant jealousy/admiration/infatuation/whatever you want to call it.  It's fine.  I've been here since like 2003.  I've already pointed out that there are 15 people on this forum with more posts than me.  And while my average 5 posts per day may seem high, there's folks here who post 3x that much on a daily basis.  Like I told you in the other thread, if it seems like I have more "At-Bats" than I do, it's because I exclusively hit Home Dingers and because 1/3rd of your own posts are in response to things I've said.   You spend a lot of time chasing after my balls in left field as they dangle over your head.  To you, it must seem like all I do is post here, because all you do when you post here is respond to my posts.  *Shrug*

BUt yeah, I do have a lot of free time.  If you think I post here a lot, you should see all the original content I'm providing on the Philly forums.




Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
Quote
again you have said ford has no credibility when he discusses okafor repeatedly (including a month ago) but somehow ford has credibility on this.
And this is what is called a straw man argument.  Instead of focusing on the point (Marcus was seen as a superior prospect in 2014 to Jaylen in 2016... and thus, it would make sense for our expectations of Marcus in 2014 to be higher than our expectations of Jaylen in 2016), you want to talk about a Chad Ford mailbag article in which Kevin Pelton suggested Boston trade the #3 pick for Jusuf Nurkic.   That has nothing to do with what we are talking about.  If you don't think Ford's annual article accurately reflects how scouts/GMs feel about prospects BEFORE THEY ARE DRAFTED, you can make that point.   But bringing up GIannis only adds credibility to those draft tier articles.   Giannis wasn't seen as a "Future franchise player or All-star" pre-draft.  This was reflected in Ford's article.   This was reflected in the fact that 14 teams passed on Giannis (in a draft widely believed to be weak) and he was finally selected at #15.   

I still think you're having trouble understanding this concept.   What GIannis has done since 2013 has nothing to do with what kind of prospect he was thought to be BEFORE the draft.   

Clay, to try to tie your straw man argument into this broad discussion about Brown vs Marcus, let's look at it like this.

Were Bucks fans more excited about Giannis in 2013 or Jabari Parker in 2014?   The obvious answer is Jabari Parker.   So by telling me they are more excited about Giannis right now, you're missing the point entirely.     

If you want to dispute my statement that Smart in 2014 was seen as a superior prospect to Brown in 2016, share me some evidence to support it.   Arguing about what Chad Ford thinks of Okafor's trade value is irrelevant.  As Eddie points out, I waste enough time on this forum as is.  I can't spin my wheels disproving every off-topic asinine comment someone makes in every thread.   Save the Okafor trade value comments for the Okafor trade value threads.   In this thread, I'm focused on whether or not Celtics fans were more excited about Smart in 2014 than they are about Brown in 2016.   My short answer:  Expectations were higher for Smart in 2014, but I'm more excited about Brown in 2016 than I was for Smart in 2014.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2016, 07:29:12 PM by LarBrd33 »

Offline Kaz

  • Brad Stevens
  • Posts: 211
  • Tommy Points: 73
Yes, because I was still pretty mad that Ainge took Smart over Randle, while I am perfectly fine with him taking Brown at 3.

I think both Smart and Randle have been disappointments so far, so I'm still iffy on that front.  I know Brown will be a work-in-progress, but his ceiling is so much higher that Smart's IMO.

Offline LilRip

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6857
  • Tommy Points: 391
LB33, do you really believe that 20 ppg and 5 apg is the only way Smart doesn't have a disappointing season? For reference, Chris freakin Paul - even with the injury to Blake Griffin - only averaged 19.5ppg and Jeff Teague (who was in a team situation much more similar to the C's) averaged like 15ppg and 6apg.

I don't know how it was ever reasonable in your head for Smart to produce at the level of Tyreke's rookie year. Completely different situations if you ask me. If the C's had zero concerns about winning, Marcus Smart might average around 18-5. It'll probably just cost 15-20 games in the win column.
- LilRip

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
LB33, do you really believe that 20 ppg and 5 apg is the only way Smart doesn't have a disappointing season? For reference, Chris freakin Paul - even with the injury to Blake Griffin - only averaged 19.5ppg and Jeff Teague (who was in a team situation much more similar to the C's) averaged like 15ppg and 6apg.

I don't know how it was ever reasonable in your head for Smart to produce at the level of Tyreke's rookie year. Completely different situations if you ask me. If the C's had zero concerns about winning, Marcus Smart might average around 18-5. It'll probably just cost 15-20 games in the win column.
FWIW, I was always a little skeptical of Smart's potential.  I'm sure if you could find some threads from 2014 you would see me being a wet blanket about him.  But there was definitely the perception that 2014 was an amazing draft with as many as 8 guys with star potential.   Smart was one of them.  I was happy we got him.   Some thought he was the next Harden/Wade or Westbrook.   A lot of folks thought he'd be a Tyreke Evans type.   15 and 5 was probably about what I hoped he'd be.   If he gets there, i'll be happy with it.  But since he came in with multi-time allstar expectations and has thus far proven to be nothing more than a back-up defensive role player, it's pretty silly to say he hasn't been a disappointment. 

The idea was that Rondo would likely be traded and Smart would be given the keys.  Some thought he'd put up Michael Carter Williams type numbers (MCW averaged 17 points, 6 assists, 6 rebounds as a rookie).

Quote
If Rajon Rondo gets traded, obviously, expectations will change. Smart starting probably wouldn't lead to much team success (read this), but his defense looks NBA-ready right now, and his offense could develop on the job. Earlier this summer, ESPN's David Thorpe predicted Smart could contend for Rookie of the Year honors if Rondo goes. Remember: Last year's award winner, Michael Carter-Williams, didn't help the Philadelphia 76ers win many games, nor did he demonstrate much efficiency. But he got all the touches he could have wanted and posted some gaudy traditional stats. If Smart gets as many minutes and opportunities, he could have a similar campaign.

Before the draft, ESPN's Kevin Pelton ran a statistical analysis that suggested Smart should have been considered higher than No. 6. Based on a WARP (wins above replacement player) study weighted more heavily on immediate impact, Pelton's numbers actually projected that Smart will produce more than any other 2014 rookie over the next five years.

Some also compared him to Victor Oladipo (who put up 14 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists as a rookie).   Rotoworld made the Tyreke Evans comp and suggested his worst-case scenario would be Dion Waiters offensively (who averaged 15 points, and 3 assists as a rookie).  He fell well short of expectations and actually regressed statistically in year 2.  Hopefully he improves next year.


The expectations for Brown are lower.  I don't think anyone should reasonably expect him to average 15 and 5 this season.   Expectations of him are a bit polarizing with some thinking he's going to be a total bust and others thinking he has a high ceiling, but if you average it out the consensus expectations are lower.  He was compared unfavorably to Justice Winslow before the draft.  I'm excited about his potential, though.  If everything goes perfectly, I hope that in 5 years he'll be better than Jimmy Butler.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2016, 08:30:03 PM by LarBrd33 »

Offline LilRip

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6857
  • Tommy Points: 391
LB33, do you really believe that 20 ppg and 5 apg is the only way Smart doesn't have a disappointing season? For reference, Chris freakin Paul - even with the injury to Blake Griffin - only averaged 19.5ppg and Jeff Teague (who was in a team situation much more similar to the C's) averaged like 15ppg and 6apg.

I don't know how it was ever reasonable in your head for Smart to produce at the level of Tyreke's rookie year. Completely different situations if you ask me. If the C's had zero concerns about winning, Marcus Smart might average around 18-5. It'll probably just cost 15-20 games in the win column.
FWIW, I was always a little skeptical of Smart's potential.  I'm sure if you could find some threads from 2014 you would see me being a wet blanket about him.  But there was definitely the perception that 2014 was an amazing draft with as many as 8 guys with star potential.   Smart was one of them.  I was happy we got him.   Some thought he was the next Harden/Wade or Westbrook.   A lot of folks thought he'd be a Tyreke Evans type.   15 and 5 was probably about what I hoped he'd be.   If he gets there, i'll be happy with it.  But since he came in with multi-time allstar expectations and has thus far proven to be nothing more than a back-up defensive role player, it's pretty silly to say he hasn't been a disappointment. 

The idea was that Rondo would likely be traded and Smart would be given the keys.  Some thought he'd put up Michael Carter Williams type numbers (MCW averaged 17 points, 6 assists, 6 rebounds as a rookie).

Quote
If Rajon Rondo gets traded, obviously, expectations will change. Smart starting probably wouldn't lead to much team success (read this), but his defense looks NBA-ready right now, and his offense could develop on the job. Earlier this summer, ESPN's David Thorpe predicted Smart could contend for Rookie of the Year honors if Rondo goes. Remember: Last year's award winner, Michael Carter-Williams, didn't help the Philadelphia 76ers win many games, nor did he demonstrate much efficiency. But he got all the touches he could have wanted and posted some gaudy traditional stats. If Smart gets as many minutes and opportunities, he could have a similar campaign.

Before the draft, ESPN's Kevin Pelton ran a statistical analysis that suggested Smart should have been considered higher than No. 6. Based on a WARP (wins above replacement player) study weighted more heavily on immediate impact, Pelton's numbers actually projected that Smart will produce more than any other 2014 rookie over the next five years.

The expectations for Brown are lower.  I don't think anyone should reasonably expect him to average 15 and 5 this season.   Expectations of him are a bit polarizing with some thinking he's going to be a total bust and others thinking he has a high ceiling, but if you average it out the consensus expectations are lower.  He was compared unfavorably to Justice Winslow before the draft.  I'm excited about his potential, though.  If everything goes perfectly, I hope that in 5 years he'll be better than Jimmy Butler.

I'm not saying he hasn't been disappointing. I think anyone would be disappointed, particularly at his atrocious FG%. He definitely needs to improve on that.

I'm just calling you out on your "barometer". 20-5 is not reasonable at all, IMO. If CP3's usage-heavy stats last year wouldn't be good enough for you, then placing those expectations on a player who's not even projected to start (barring a rotation shift) seems like a foregone conclusion. I don't know what Smart's per-36 numbers are, but if they come out to 15-5-5 with 1.5-2spg on decent percentages next year, I think that'll be plenty impressive.

- LilRip

Offline jambr380

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12998
  • Tommy Points: 1755
  • Everybody knows what's best for you
In answering the actual question (although I genuinely like to read LB's responses /counter-arguments), I would say I was more excited about Smart. He was our first high draft pick in years in a draft that was highly touted. Our team was also much worse back then and Smart could be seen as something of a savior.

We are a bit spoiled now with being an upper-level Eastern Conference team and having loads of high lottery picks pouring in. I am excited about Brown, but I also know that our entire future doesn't hinge on him being a superstar...hopefully he will, though.

Offline mr. dee

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7828
  • Tommy Points: 597
I think Smart was seen as a higher quality prospect than Jaylen Brown is.   Like if you check out Chad Ford's yearly "Draft Tier" article, apparently according to scouts/experts Marcus Smart was a "Tier-2" level prospect... meaning a player with all-star potential.   Brown is seen as anywhere from Tier-3 (starter potential) or Tier-4 (rotation player potential).   

Despite this, guys can always disappoint or exceed expectations.  In the case of Smart, he been a major disappointment thus far and hasn't at all lived up to what he was billed as.  For two years, he's been nothing more than a defensive role player and offensive albatross.   Hopefully Brown goes in the other direction and vastly surpasses what people think he'll be.  The fact that he's 19 and shows some raw ability has me really excited to watch him develop.  I'm looking forward to seeing what he turns into long-term.  I have no expectations in year 1.  He's really raw and looks like he's a long way away from contributing.

What offensive production this year from Marcus would get you to change your opinion of him as a "major disappointment"?
I have hope Marcus will improve.  A lot of players have made leaps in Year 3.   But going into the draft he was supposed to be one of the two most "NBA Ready" players in the lotto and a lot of people compared his offensive game to Tyreke Evans (who averaged 20 points and 5 assists as a rookie).   A lot of us had reasonably high expectations that his floor was a high quality player on both ends of the court.  The belief was that he made Rondo instantly expendable.   Last year, he was literally one of the worst offensive players in the league.  He's been great at certain things and dreadful at others. 

Unless a switch flips and he shows that two-way potential we expected, there's not a lot he can do to shake the "major disappointment" label.  I have hope, though.

If I were to choose between Tyreke and Smart, I'd pick Smart. I'd rather have a defensive stud who's offensively challenged (but improving every year on that regard) than a rookie who looked like a real superstar but significantly fell off the map after a year or two.

Offline celticsclay

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15720
  • Tommy Points: 1386
I skimmed the last couple pages.  Saw my name a bunch.  Instead of responding to everyone, I'll keep it simple.

Translation: Celticsclay called me out and I don't know how to respond to that, so here, let me say a bunch of irrelevant stuff I've already said before.
Haha I am glad someone else noticed it. My points were pretty straight forward and valid and I guess without a valid response he slithered off into a topic change with his tail between his legs. TP for noticing.

TP back at ya man. LarBrd makes good posts here (for the most part), but when there's evidence against what he's saying, he completely ignores it. It's a shame, it prevents some good discussion.
It's literally a straw man argument.   Instead of addressing my actual point, they are trying to argue something else. 

Clay thinks that because Jeff Whitey was lumped into the same "tier" as the Giannis "The Greek Freak", it invalidates my point.   It doesn't.  What he's arguing is an entirely different discussion.  Why would I waste my time addressing this when it has jack squat to do with what were talking about?

But because we're seeing a little Huey, Dewie and Louie action here, I'll address Clay's straw man.

Does Giannis being in the same "tier" pre-draft as Jeff Whitey disprove that Ford's article relays how scouts/Gm's feel about scouts BEFORE THEY ENTER THE DRAFT?.... NOPE.

Ford's article relays what he hears from scouts/GMs before the draft.   In 2013 they had no single player in the top 2 tiers (potential franchise player or all-star).   It was widely seen as a weak draft (is anyone disagreeing with that?).   Ford had 6 players in Tier-3, and 6 players in Tier-4.  The actually draft fell in line with this. 

There were a total of 25 players listed in "Tier 5" that year.  Here was Ford's commentary:

Quote
This next group is the largest Tier 5 I've ever had, and it shows where the strength of the draft is. There is incredible depth here, and it's not uncommon to hear teams say that the player you draft at No. 35 might be as good as the player you get at No. 15. There is a whopping 25 players in this group. At least seven of these players won't hear their names called in the first round.

A few teams had Antetokounmpo, Karasev, Muhammad and Nogueira in Tier 4, but not quite enough for them to make the cut. Interestingly, Ledo got two votes for Tier 4 and is a guy who clearly has been impressing people in workouts.

Antetokoumpo was actually the top name listed in that Tier (13th on the entire list).


LarBrd33's Point:
We can use Ford's draft tier article to get a sense of how scouts/GMs felt about prospects before they entered the draft.   OBVIOUSLY, players can exceed expectations or disappoint after the fact.

LarBrd33's Evidence: Did Ford's 2013 draft tier article accurately depict how scouts/Gms felt about those prospects at the time?   Sure.  He had Giannis as a Tier 5 prospect going somewhere between #13 and #35.  Giannis went 15th.   

Relevancy to Discussion:  The thread is asking if we are more excited about Brown than we were about Marcus in 2014.   I think accurately understanding what expectations were like in 2014 vs right now are incredibly relevant.  If you were to ask the Cavs if they were more excited about LeBron in 2003 vs Anthony Bennett in 2013 (both #1 picks), there is no question they would have been more excited about LeBron.   Nobody in their right mind would have been more excited about a lowly prospect like Anthony Bennett compared to a potential franchise player like LeBron.   If you're asking me if I'm more excited about Brown now, I think it's fair to point out that expectations for Brown are lesser than expectations were for Marcus Smart.   Despite this, my PERSONAL expectations actually run counter to this.  Even though Smart was seen as a superior prospect to Brown, I'm actually more excited about Brown.


Clay's Point: Ignoring the premise of this thread and instead attempting to derail the conversation to attack Chad Ford, he's pointed out that Giannis Antetokounmpo has vastly surpassed expectations.  And that if you look at those Draft tiers after the fact, you'll see various names like Rudy Gobert who have surpassed expectations and several players like Greg Oden who have disappointed.   

Clay's Evidence:  Various anecdotal evidence that Ford's draft Tier article is incapable of telling the future.

Relevance to this Discussion:  None whatsoever.  Nobody is disputing that players often surpass expectations or disappoint.  I was quick to make this point right from the start when I pointed out that Smart, despite being seen as a superior prospect in 2014 to Brown in 2016, has dramatically disappointed.    Clay's point/evidence is entirely irrelevant to this discussion beyond trying to discredit Ford's reporting in general.  Unfortunately, by using a player like Giannis to argue his point, he actually re-enforces my own.   Yes, Giannis was seen as a Tier 5 prospect.  Yes, this is why he was drafted all the way at #15 instead of #1.   Yes, players can exceed expectations.  Yes, I hope Jaylen is one of those players who ends up exceeding expectations like Giannis, because right now he's seen as a Tier3/4 prospect while Smart was a seen as a Tier 2 prospect. 

I think that should sufficiently address the comments.
lol none of this is related to what I said at all and nothing has to do with the mailbag you randomly introduced. Good grief new low lb