I skimmed the last couple pages. Saw my name a bunch. Instead of responding to everyone, I'll keep it simple.
Translation: Celticsclay called me out and I don't know how to respond to that, so here, let me say a bunch of irrelevant stuff I've already said before.
Haha I am glad someone else noticed it. My points were pretty straight forward and valid and I guess without a valid response he slithered off into a topic change with his tail between his legs. TP for noticing.
TP back at ya man. LarBrd makes good posts here (for the most part), but when there's evidence against what he's saying, he completely ignores it. It's a shame, it prevents some good discussion.
It's literally a straw man argument. Instead of addressing my actual point, they are trying to argue something else.
Clay thinks that because Jeff Whitey was lumped into the same "tier" as the Giannis "The Greek Freak", it invalidates my point. It doesn't. What he's arguing is an entirely different discussion. Why would I waste my time addressing this when it has jack squat to do with what were talking about?
But because we're seeing a little Huey, Dewie and Louie action here, I'll address Clay's straw man.
Does Giannis being in the same "tier" pre-draft as Jeff Whitey disprove that Ford's article relays how scouts/Gm's feel about scouts
BEFORE THEY ENTER THE DRAFT?.... NOPE.
Ford's article relays what he hears from scouts/GMs before the draft. In 2013 they had no single player in the top 2 tiers (potential franchise player or all-star). It was widely seen as a weak draft (is anyone disagreeing with that?). Ford had 6 players in Tier-3, and 6 players in Tier-4. The actually draft fell in line with this.
There were a total of 25 players listed in "Tier 5" that year. Here was Ford's commentary:
This next group is the largest Tier 5 I've ever had, and it shows where the strength of the draft is. There is incredible depth here, and it's not uncommon to hear teams say that the player you draft at No. 35 might be as good as the player you get at No. 15. There is a whopping 25 players in this group. At least seven of these players won't hear their names called in the first round.
A few teams had Antetokounmpo, Karasev, Muhammad and Nogueira in Tier 4, but not quite enough for them to make the cut. Interestingly, Ledo got two votes for Tier 4 and is a guy who clearly has been impressing people in workouts.
Antetokoumpo was actually the top name listed in that Tier (13th on the entire list).
LarBrd33's Point: We can use Ford's draft tier article to get a sense of how scouts/GMs felt about prospects before they entered the draft. OBVIOUSLY, players can exceed expectations or disappoint after the fact.
LarBrd33's Evidence: Did Ford's 2013 draft tier article accurately depict how scouts/Gms felt about those prospects at the time? Sure. He had Giannis as a Tier 5 prospect going somewhere between #13 and #35. Giannis went 15th.
Relevancy to Discussion: The thread is asking if we are more excited about Brown than we were about Marcus in 2014. I think accurately understanding what expectations were like in 2014 vs right now are incredibly relevant. If you were to ask the Cavs if they were more excited about LeBron in 2003 vs Anthony Bennett in 2013 (both #1 picks), there is no question they would have been more excited about LeBron. Nobody in their right mind would have been more excited about a lowly prospect like Anthony Bennett compared to a potential franchise player like LeBron.
If you're asking me if I'm more excited about Brown now, I think it's fair to point out that expectations for Brown are lesser than expectations were for Marcus Smart. Despite this, my PERSONAL expectations actually run counter to this. Even though Smart was seen as a superior prospect to Brown, I'm actually more excited about Brown.Clay's Point: Ignoring the premise of this thread and instead attempting to derail the conversation to attack Chad Ford, he's pointed out that Giannis Antetokounmpo has vastly surpassed expectations. And that if you look at those Draft tiers after the fact, you'll see various names like Rudy Gobert who have surpassed expectations and several players like Greg Oden who have disappointed.
Clay's Evidence: Various anecdotal evidence that Ford's draft Tier article is incapable of telling the future.
Relevance to this Discussion: None whatsoever. Nobody is disputing that players often surpass expectations or disappoint. I was quick to make this point right from the start when I pointed out that Smart, despite being seen as a superior prospect in 2014 to Brown in 2016, has dramatically disappointed. Clay's point/evidence is entirely irrelevant to this discussion beyond trying to discredit Ford's reporting in general. Unfortunately, by using a player like Giannis to argue his point, he actually re-enforces my own. Yes, Giannis was seen as a Tier 5 prospect. Yes, this is why he was drafted all the way at #15 instead of #1. Yes, players can exceed expectations. Yes, I hope Jaylen is one of those players who ends up exceeding expectations like Giannis, because right now he's seen as a Tier3/4 prospect while Smart was a seen as a Tier 2 prospect.
I think that should sufficiently address the comments.