Are you more excited about seeing Brown than you were about seeing Marcus...

[trickybilly]

This time last year.

I think now Marcus' production makes him seem like he is getting close to being a good value number 5 pick. If he makes another leap this year then he will become very good value - like 14/5/6 and his usual defence. I remember at the time everyone being pretty happy with the pick, and personally I thought it was super safe pick - high floor kinda guy. His college production still made him super intriguing (I remember people saying he slipped because of shoving that fan - a character concern that with hindsight seems laughable now), and I remember being super interested watching his first few games (which were pretty bad if I remember correctly).

With Jaylen, personally I am much more excited to see what happens. I think those people who think he will get more than 10 minutes per game are tripping, but still he'll get enough minutes for us to see some bits and pieces that scream Vince Carter or whoever...

Hurry Up.

[LarBrd33]

I think Smart was seen as a higher quality prospect than Jaylen Brown is.   Like if you check out Chad Ford's yearly "Draft Tier" article, apparently according to scouts/experts Marcus Smart was a "Tier-2" level prospect... meaning a player with all-star potential.   Brown is seen as anywhere from Tier-3 (starter potential) or Tier-4 (rotation player potential).   

Despite this, guys can always disappoint or exceed expectations.  In the case of Smart, he been a major disappointment thus far and hasn't at all lived up to what he was billed as.  For two years, he's been nothing more than a defensive role player and offensive albatross.   Hopefully Brown goes in the other direction and vastly surpasses what people think he'll be.  The fact that he's 19 and shows some raw ability has me really excited to watch him develop.  I'm looking forward to seeing what he turns into long-term.  I have no expectations in year 1.  He's really raw and looks like he's a long way away from contributing.

[Chris22]

Yes.

[trickybilly]

I think Smart was seen as a higher quality prospect than Jaylen Brown is.   Like if you check out Chad Ford's yearly "Draft Tier" article, apparently according to scouts/experts Marcus Smart was a "Tier-2" level prospect... meaning a player with all-star potential.   Brown is seen as anywhere from Tier-3 (starter potential) or Tier-4 (rotation player potential).   

Despite this, guys can always disappoint or exceed expectations.  In the case of Smart, he been a major disappointment thus far and hasn't at all lived up to what he was billed as.  For two years, he's been nothing more than a defensive role player and offensive albatross.   Hopefully Brown goes in the other direction and vastly surpasses what people think he'll be.  The fact that he's 19 and shows some raw ability has me really excited to watch him develop.  I'm looking forward to seeing what he turns into long-term.  I have no expectations in year 1.  He's really raw and looks like he's a long way away from contributing.

What offensive production this year from Marcus would get you to change your opinion of him as a "major disappointment"?

[LarBrd33]

I think Smart was seen as a higher quality prospect than Jaylen Brown is.   Like if you check out Chad Ford's yearly "Draft Tier" article, apparently according to scouts/experts Marcus Smart was a "Tier-2" level prospect... meaning a player with all-star potential.   Brown is seen as anywhere from Tier-3 (starter potential) or Tier-4 (rotation player potential).   

Despite this, guys can always disappoint or exceed expectations.  In the case of Smart, he been a major disappointment thus far and hasn't at all lived up to what he was billed as.  For two years, he's been nothing more than a defensive role player and offensive albatross.   Hopefully Brown goes in the other direction and vastly surpasses what people think he'll be.  The fact that he's 19 and shows some raw ability has me really excited to watch him develop.  I'm looking forward to seeing what he turns into long-term.  I have no expectations in year 1.  He's really raw and looks like he's a long way away from contributing.

What offensive production this year from Marcus would get you to change your opinion of him as a "major disappointment"?

I have hope Marcus will improve.  A lot of players have made leaps in Year 3.   But going into the draft he was supposed to be one of the two most "NBA Ready" players in the lotto and a lot of people compared his offensive game to Tyreke Evans (who averaged 20 points and 5 assists as a rookie).   A lot of us had reasonably high expectations that his floor was a high quality player on both ends of the court.  The belief was that he made Rondo instantly expendable.   Last year, he was literally one of the worst offensive players in the league.  He's been great at certain things and dreadful at others. 

Unless a switch flips and he shows that two-way potential we expected, there's not a lot he can do to shake the "major disappointment" label.  I have hope, though. 

[trickybilly]

I think Smart was seen as a higher quality prospect than Jaylen Brown is.   Like if you check out Chad Ford's yearly "Draft Tier" article, apparently according to scouts/experts Marcus Smart was a "Tier-2" level prospect... meaning a player with all-star potential.   Brown is seen as anywhere from Tier-3 (starter potential) or Tier-4 (rotation player potential).   

Despite this, guys can always disappoint or exceed expectations.  In the case of Smart, he been a major disappointment thus far and hasn't at all lived up to what he was billed as.  For two years, he's been nothing more than a defensive role player and offensive albatross.   Hopefully Brown goes in the other direction and vastly surpasses what people think he'll be.  The fact that he's 19 and shows some raw ability has me really excited to watch him develop.  I'm looking forward to seeing what he turns into long-term.  I have no expectations in year 1.  He's really raw and looks like he's a long way away from contributing.

What offensive production this year from Marcus would get you to change your opinion of him as a "major disappointment"?

I have hope Marcus will improve.  A lot of players have made leaps in Year 3.   But going into the draft he was supposed to be one of the two most "NBA Ready" players in the lotto and a lot of people compared his offensive game to Tyreke Evans (who averaged 20 points and 5 assists as a rookie).   A lot of us had reasonably high expectations that his floor was a high quality player on both ends of the court.  The belief was that he made Rondo instantly expendable.   Last year, he was literally one of the worst offensive players in the league.  He's been great at certain things and dreadful at others. 

Unless a switch flips and he shows that two-way potential we expected, there's not a lot he can do to shake the "major disappointment" label.  I have hope, though.

Agree entirely: with respect though, you didn't really answer my question.

What about 35%, 13pts/5assists.

Does he creep out of the "major disappointment" category if he gets that done?

[tarheelsxxiii]

I think Smart was seen as a higher quality prospect than Jaylen Brown is.   Like if you check out Chad Ford's yearly "Draft Tier" article, apparently according to scouts/experts Marcus Smart was a "Tier-2" level prospect... meaning a player with all-star potential.   Brown is seen as anywhere from Tier-3 (starter potential) or Tier-4 (rotation player potential).   

Despite this, guys can always disappoint or exceed expectations.  In the case of Smart, he been a major disappointment thus far and hasn't at all lived up to what he was billed as.  For two years, he's been nothing more than a defensive role player and offensive albatross.   Hopefully Brown goes in the other direction and vastly surpasses what people think he'll be.  The fact that he's 19 and shows some raw ability has me really excited to watch him develop.  I'm looking forward to seeing what he turns into long-term.  I have no expectations in year 1.  He's really raw and looks like he's a long way away from contributing.

Projections are crude, but I like em.  Although Brown is Tier 3, I wonder if the strength of that Tier 3 class may have impacted his perceived upside.

[LarBrd33]

I think Smart was seen as a higher quality prospect than Jaylen Brown is.   Like if you check out Chad Ford's yearly "Draft Tier" article, apparently according to scouts/experts Marcus Smart was a "Tier-2" level prospect... meaning a player with all-star potential.   Brown is seen as anywhere from Tier-3 (starter potential) or Tier-4 (rotation player potential).   

Despite this, guys can always disappoint or exceed expectations.  In the case of Smart, he been a major disappointment thus far and hasn't at all lived up to what he was billed as.  For two years, he's been nothing more than a defensive role player and offensive albatross.   Hopefully Brown goes in the other direction and vastly surpasses what people think he'll be.  The fact that he's 19 and shows some raw ability has me really excited to watch him develop.  I'm looking forward to seeing what he turns into long-term.  I have no expectations in year 1.  He's really raw and looks like he's a long way away from contributing.

What offensive production this year from Marcus would get you to change your opinion of him as a "major disappointment"?

I have hope Marcus will improve.  A lot of players have made leaps in Year 3.   But going into the draft he was supposed to be one of the two most "NBA Ready" players in the lotto and a lot of people compared his offensive game to Tyreke Evans (who averaged 20 points and 5 assists as a rookie).   A lot of us had reasonably high expectations that his floor was a high quality player on both ends of the court.  The belief was that he made Rondo instantly expendable.   Last year, he was literally one of the worst offensive players in the league.  He's been great at certain things and dreadful at others. 

Unless a switch flips and he shows that two-way potential we expected, there's not a lot he can do to shake the "major disappointment" label.  I have hope, though.

Agree entirely: with respect though, you didn't really answer my question.

What about 35%, 13pts/5assists.

Does he creep out of the "major disappointment" category if he gets that done?

While 13 points/5 assists and 35% shooting would be an improvement, it would be a long way off from shaking the "major disappointment" label.  If that's his numbers next season, the Marcus Smart hype train basically screeches to a halt.  He'd officially transition from "future star" to "long term role player".  I assume his trade value would take a big hit as well.  While he'd still have value as a defensive role player, his "future star" label would basically disappear.

If he gets his numbers up to 15+ points and his FG% above 40%, he'll shake the "Major" part of the "major disappointment" label.  But it would still be a disappointment.

[celticsclay]

I think Smart was seen as a higher quality prospect than Jaylen Brown is.   Like if you check out Chad Ford's yearly "Draft Tier" article, apparently according to scouts/experts Marcus Smart was a "Tier-2" level prospect... meaning a player with all-star potential.   Brown is seen as anywhere from Tier-3 (starter potential) or Tier-4 (rotation player potential).   

Despite this, guys can always disappoint or exceed expectations.  In the case of Smart, he been a major disappointment thus far and hasn't at all lived up to what he was billed as.  For two years, he's been nothing more than a defensive role player and offensive albatross.   Hopefully Brown goes in the other direction and vastly surpasses what people think he'll be.  The fact that he's 19 and shows some raw ability has me really excited to watch him develop.  I'm looking forward to seeing what he turns into long-term.  I have no expectations in year 1.  He's really raw and looks like he's a long way away from contributing.

lol at the tiers. They are so off we might as well talk about pogs

[LarBrd33]

I think Smart was seen as a higher quality prospect than Jaylen Brown is.   Like if you check out Chad Ford's yearly "Draft Tier" article, apparently according to scouts/experts Marcus Smart was a "Tier-2" level prospect... meaning a player with all-star potential.   Brown is seen as anywhere from Tier-3 (starter potential) or Tier-4 (rotation player potential).   

Despite this, guys can always disappoint or exceed expectations.  In the case of Smart, he been a major disappointment thus far and hasn't at all lived up to what he was billed as.  For two years, he's been nothing more than a defensive role player and offensive albatross.   Hopefully Brown goes in the other direction and vastly surpasses what people think he'll be.  The fact that he's 19 and shows some raw ability has me really excited to watch him develop.  I'm looking forward to seeing what he turns into long-term.  I have no expectations in year 1.  He's really raw and looks like he's a long way away from contributing.

lol at the tiers. They are so off we might as well talk about pogs

I don't think you understand what the tiers are.

[LarBrd33]

I think Smart was seen as a higher quality prospect than Jaylen Brown is.   Like if you check out Chad Ford's yearly "Draft Tier" article, apparently according to scouts/experts Marcus Smart was a "Tier-2" level prospect... meaning a player with all-star potential.   Brown is seen as anywhere from Tier-3 (starter potential) or Tier-4 (rotation player potential).   

Despite this, guys can always disappoint or exceed expectations.  In the case of Smart, he been a major disappointment thus far and hasn't at all lived up to what he was billed as.  For two years, he's been nothing more than a defensive role player and offensive albatross.   Hopefully Brown goes in the other direction and vastly surpasses what people think he'll be.  The fact that he's 19 and shows some raw ability has me really excited to watch him develop.  I'm looking forward to seeing what he turns into long-term.  I have no expectations in year 1.  He's really raw and looks like he's a long way away from contributing.

Projections are crude, but I like em.  Although Brown is Tier 3, I wonder if the strength of that Tier 3 class may have impacted his perceived upside.

The idea behind Ford's article isn't to compare players within a class... it's to compare them to every prospect that's ever come out.  Obviously, some players will exceed expectations (like Rudy Gobert) and others will disappoint (like Marcus Smart), but it's interesting to see how players and draft classes are perceived.   In 2013, there wasn't a single player listed as a "tier 1" or "Tier 2" prospect.  This was reflected in guys like Anthony Bennett, Otto Porter, Cody Zeller and Alex Len going in the top 5.   Not all "Top 5 picks" are created equally.  Nobody would confuse Anthony Bennett or Cody Zeller with a "Tier 1" prospect like Anthony Davis or Karl Towns.  None of the guys taken Top 5 in 2013 were thought to have superstar or even allstar potential.    Jaylen Brown is similar to those level of prospects. 

That doesn't mean it would have been unthinkable for Anthony Bennett to develop into a star.  And it's not unthinkable that Jaylen Brown will develop into a star.  Raw prospects like that are exciting.  It's fun to see if they put it together.   

Ford's "Tier article" makes sense to anyone who understands that yearly article.   It's not like every single draft class has X amount of future superstars, X amount of future allstars, X amount of future starters.   It varies from year to year.  Ford just relays what Scouts/front offices tell him in regards to players in a draft class look.  Guys like clay can scoff at it, but it's helpful to a certain extent.   The consensus from professional scouts apparently is that Brown falls somewhere in the Tier 3/Tier 4 range (future start/rotation player).    Smart was projected to be a future star.   IF we are comparing Smart to Brown as prospects when they both entered the draft, Smart was seen as the superior prospect.  That doesn't mean Smart will be a better player.  Some people have a really hard time wrapping their mind around that concept. 

[celticsclay]

I think Smart was seen as a higher quality prospect than Jaylen Brown is.   Like if you check out Chad Ford's yearly "Draft Tier" article, apparently according to scouts/experts Marcus Smart was a "Tier-2" level prospect... meaning a player with all-star potential.   Brown is seen as anywhere from Tier-3 (starter potential) or Tier-4 (rotation player potential).   

Despite this, guys can always disappoint or exceed expectations.  In the case of Smart, he been a major disappointment thus far and hasn't at all lived up to what he was billed as.  For two years, he's been nothing more than a defensive role player and offensive albatross.   Hopefully Brown goes in the other direction and vastly surpasses what people think he'll be.  The fact that he's 19 and shows some raw ability has me really excited to watch him develop.  I'm looking forward to seeing what he turns into long-term.  I have no expectations in year 1.  He's really raw and looks like he's a long way away from contributing.

lol at the tiers. They are so off we might as well talk about pogs

I don't think you understand what the tiers are.

Believe me I do. We have discussed this previously and we when we looked at them from previous drafts they just didn't pan out as accurate and in some cases were completely laughable. Whether he is really polling scouts and executives or just making stuff up as he goes, they have proven to be awful predictors. Larbrd I think you personally could make better guesses than the tier system has ended up putting out.

[LarBrd33]

I think Smart was seen as a higher quality prospect than Jaylen Brown is.   Like if you check out Chad Ford's yearly "Draft Tier" article, apparently according to scouts/experts Marcus Smart was a "Tier-2" level prospect... meaning a player with all-star potential.   Brown is seen as anywhere from Tier-3 (starter potential) or Tier-4 (rotation player potential).   

Despite this, guys can always disappoint or exceed expectations.  In the case of Smart, he been a major disappointment thus far and hasn't at all lived up to what he was billed as.  For two years, he's been nothing more than a defensive role player and offensive albatross.   Hopefully Brown goes in the other direction and vastly surpasses what people think he'll be.  The fact that he's 19 and shows some raw ability has me really excited to watch him develop.  I'm looking forward to seeing what he turns into long-term.  I have no expectations in year 1.  He's really raw and looks like he's a long way away from contributing.

lol at the tiers. They are so off we might as well talk about pogs

I don't think you understand what the tiers are.

Believe me I do. We have discussed this previously and we when we looked at them from previous drafts they just didn't pan out as accurate and in some cases were completely laughable. Whether he is really polling scouts and executives or just making stuff up as he goes, they have proven to be awful predictors. Larbrd I think you personally could make better guesses than the tier system has ended up putting out.

Looking at them from previous drafts misses the point.  The fact that your hot take is to look at the previous drafts and laugh off the "tiers" essentially proves you don't understand the concept.

IF you're ignorant enough to believe that Scouts can't tell the difference between a Karl Towns, Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin or John Wall level prospect... from a Anthony Bennett, Nik Stauskas or Jaylen Brown level prospect, I don't know what I could possibly tell you to help you understand the concept of Ford's yearly article.

Yes, there will be guys labelled "Tier 1" that will bust (Greg Oden, for instance).   And yes, there will be guys labelled "Tier 4-6" that will greatly exceed expectations (Rudy Gorbert for instance)...  But looking at how players progressed has very little to do with how they are perceived when they entered the draft.   Smart was supposed to be more "can't-miss" than Jaylen is right now.  Jaylen might exceed expectations.  If he does, great.   But there's a decent chance he fails.  That would be less surprising than how disappointing Smart has been.

[celticsclay]

I think Smart was seen as a higher quality prospect than Jaylen Brown is.   Like if you check out Chad Ford's yearly "Draft Tier" article, apparently according to scouts/experts Marcus Smart was a "Tier-2" level prospect... meaning a player with all-star potential.   Brown is seen as anywhere from Tier-3 (starter potential) or Tier-4 (rotation player potential).   

Despite this, guys can always disappoint or exceed expectations.  In the case of Smart, he been a major disappointment thus far and hasn't at all lived up to what he was billed as.  For two years, he's been nothing more than a defensive role player and offensive albatross.   Hopefully Brown goes in the other direction and vastly surpasses what people think he'll be.  The fact that he's 19 and shows some raw ability has me really excited to watch him develop.  I'm looking forward to seeing what he turns into long-term.  I have no expectations in year 1.  He's really raw and looks like he's a long way away from contributing.

lol at the tiers. They are so off we might as well talk about pogs

I don't think you understand what the tiers are.

Believe me I do. We have discussed this previously and we when we looked at them from previous drafts they just didn't pan out as accurate and in some cases were completely laughable. Whether he is really polling scouts and executives or just making stuff up as he goes, they have proven to be awful predictors. Larbrd I think you personally could make better guesses than the tier system has ended up putting out.

Looking at them from previous drafts misses the point.  I still don't think you understand it.

it is not complicated at all. Coming from a guy that retroactively altered his draft boards to appear smarter I don't even 100% believe he is getting the kind of input he claims to even develop them. Keep posting it by all means and telling other posters they don't understand them though. It's real great material

[tarheelsxxiii]

I think Smart was seen as a higher quality prospect than Jaylen Brown is.   Like if you check out Chad Ford's yearly "Draft Tier" article, apparently according to scouts/experts Marcus Smart was a "Tier-2" level prospect... meaning a player with all-star potential.   Brown is seen as anywhere from Tier-3 (starter potential) or Tier-4 (rotation player potential).   

Despite this, guys can always disappoint or exceed expectations.  In the case of Smart, he been a major disappointment thus far and hasn't at all lived up to what he was billed as.  For two years, he's been nothing more than a defensive role player and offensive albatross.   Hopefully Brown goes in the other direction and vastly surpasses what people think he'll be.  The fact that he's 19 and shows some raw ability has me really excited to watch him develop.  I'm looking forward to seeing what he turns into long-term.  I have no expectations in year 1.  He's really raw and looks like he's a long way away from contributing.

Projections are crude, but I like em.  Although Brown is Tier 3, I wonder if the strength of that Tier 3 class may have impacted his perceived upside.

The idea behind Ford's article isn't to compare players within a class... it's to compare them to every prospect that's ever come out.  Obviously, some players will exceed expectations (like Rudy Gobert) and others will disappoint (like Marcus Smart), but it's interesting to see how players and draft classes are perceived.   In 2013, there wasn't a single player listed as a "tier 1" or "Tier 2" prospect.  This was reflected in guys like Anthony Bennett, Otto Porter, Cody Zeller and Alex Len going in the top 5.   Not all "Top 5 picks" are created equally.  Nobody would confuse Anthony Bennett or Cody Zeller with a "Tier 1" prospect like Anthony Davis or Karl Towns.  None of the guys taken Top 5 in 2013 were thought to have superstar or even allstar potential.    Jaylen Brown is similar to those level of prospects. 

That doesn't mean it would have been unthinkable for Anthony Bennett to develop into a star.  And it's not unthinkable that Jaylen Brown will develop into a star.  Raw prospects like that are exciting.  It's fun to see if they put it together.   

Ford's "Tier article" makes sense to anyone who understands that yearly article.   It's not like every single draft class has X amount of future superstars, X amount of future allstars, X amount of future starters.   It varies from year to year.  Ford just relays what Scouts/front offices tell him in regards to players in a draft class look.  Guys like clay can scoff at it, but it's helpful to a certain extent.   The consensus from professional scouts apparently is that Brown falls somewhere in the Tier 3/Tier 4 range (future start/rotation player).    Smart was projected to be a future star.   IF we are comparing Smart to Brown as prospects when they both entered the draft, Smart was seen as the superior prospect.  That doesn't mean Smart will be a better player.  Some people have a really hard time wrapping their mind around that concept.

Smart is a defensive role player.  It is what it is, weak draft. I hadn't looked into it as deep as you had, so sure, seems like Jaylen was considered a lesser product. Maybe I'm biased by age, size for position, or Smart's progress, but I still tend to think Jaylen has higher upside. If he does nothing else but get to the FT line/connect higher than Smart, I suspect he'll be better -- more versatile if for no other reason than his physical make-up.